在致同国际近期推出的2025年《国际商业报告》（IBR）"全球趋势洞察"系列首篇中，我们聚焦关税政策对中端市场企业（Mid- Market）的深度影响。2025年初市场乐观指数的下滑，预示着更复杂的挑战正在酝酿。 进入2025年，贸易摩擦升级导致企业信心遭遇两年首降——乐观指数骤降2.9个百分点至72.7%，第二季度再度下滑至71%。值得注意的 是，尽管风险预警信号显现，中端市场企业依托战略前瞻性与运营敏捷性构筑的基本面依然稳固。 面对传统出口市场的结构性变化，企业亟需认识到，新型贸易关系将重构增长曲线。这要求企业需要比以往更具战略眼光，既要深化本 地市场价值挖掘，也要构建区域化业务矩阵。 中端市场企业具备穿越周期的基因，他们曾成功抵御全球金融危机，化解疫情带来的广泛冲击，并适应了多轮地缘政治导致的供应中 断。 但当前关税引发的市场重构存在本质差异，堪称前所未有——过往危机中，企业可依托非本土业务组合对冲风险，在动荡中谋求发展； 而现行关税政策正在压缩这一战略空间，迫使企业重新界定可触达市场，并调整商业模式。关键应对策略应包括：风险敞口管理、供应 链弹性建设、基于新兴市场机会的产品价值重估。 本轮关税政策动荡 ...

Group 1: Core Logic Supporting Gold Prices - The increasing fiscal situation in the U.S. is a fundamental factor supporting gold prices, with the potential addition of $3.4 trillion in debt over the next decade due to the "Build Back Better" plan, and a debt ceiling increase of $5 trillion, exacerbating the current $36.2 trillion debt level [3][6] - The dual accumulation of fiscal and political risks has triggered a global capital reallocation, influenced by the rising political atmosphere following Musk's announcement of forming the "American Party" [3][6] Group 2: Trade Frictions and Policy Volatility - Trump's trade policies, including a recent 50% tariff on copper imports, have stirred market sentiment and raised concerns about global economic slowdown, leading to increased inflows of safe-haven funds into the gold market [7][9] - The uncertainty in trade policies is impacting consumer confidence and business investment, prompting a reallocation of global capital away from U.S. assets towards gold as an alternative safe-haven [9] Group 3: Federal Reserve Policies and Interest Rate Dynamics - The traditional inverse relationship between interest rates and gold prices is being restructured, as gold prices have risen despite actual U.S. interest rates exceeding 2% [10][13] - Market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's potential shift in policy, including possible interest rate cuts due to inflation concerns, are contributing to the current dynamics where both gold and interest rates may rise simultaneously [10][13] Group 4: Central Bank Gold Purchases and Market Structure - Continuous gold purchases by central banks, particularly in emerging markets, are becoming a significant support for gold prices, driven by motives such as diversification of foreign exchange reserves and hedging against geopolitical risks [13] - The shift in demand from private investors to official institutions marks a structural change in the gold market, reflecting a trend of "de-dollarization" in response to U.S. fiscal deficits [13] Group 5: Short-term Volatility and Long-term Trends - Short-term fluctuations in gold prices are influenced by technical and sentiment factors, with current prices nearing key resistance levels around $3,335 per ounce [14] - Long-term drivers for gold remain rooted in structural uncertainties in the global economy and politics, including ongoing U.S. fiscal deficits and fluctuating trade policies, reinforcing gold's role as a "backup safe-haven asset" [17]