不是说好降息利好股市，不是说好降息之后会有大牛市的么？为何美国宣布降息25个基点之后，A股为何出现两连跌呢？特别是在19号，股市出现了大幅度 下跌，大部分蓝筹都吃了瘪，大盘一度下探到3800点，最终单日上证指数跌了1.15%。 你可能会说，不是一直在说美国经济出问题了么？非农都已经爆冷成什么样了，而股市又是经济的晴雨表，为何美股持续往上走呢？股市是经济的晴雨表确 实没错，但股市还是经济的蓄水池。 美国现在通胀又抬头了，在通胀的情况下，大家肯定会着急寻找抗击通胀的资产。股神巴菲特近日也是一改近几年的风格，不再增加现金储备，开始大幅度 增持日本股市。不用怀疑，现在除了黄金跟比特币，全球最好的资产依然是美股。 我一直在跟大家说，一定会分清楚这一轮降息，到底是预防式降息，还是应对式降息，因为只有应对式降息，那才是真正的大放水。 如果你看看美联储的资产负债表，你就知道他们现在一方面靠降息放水，另外一方面还在抛售资产回收美元，以达到收水的目的。 我们A股这边持续下跌，美股却走出了两连涨的气势，黄金则是继续震荡。如果你看过我18号当天的预测视频，你应该就可以明白了。那我今天就再次把背 后的逻辑给大家用大白话说清楚，希望可以 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point interest rate cut, indicating a preventive approach rather than a reactive one [1][3] - Preventive rate cuts are aimed at increasing market liquidity and generally benefit the stock market, while reactive cuts indicate significant economic issues and tend to favor bonds and gold [3][5] - Historical data shows that during previous reactive rate cuts, A-shares experienced significant declines, while preventive cuts have historically led to stock market gains [3][5] Group 2 - The S&P 500 index has reached a new historical high following preventive rate cuts, with expectations of continued upward movement due to improved market liquidity [5] - Bond prices are expected to rise as yields decrease, driven by investor anticipation of ongoing rate cuts [5] - Gold prices are likely to strengthen as the dollar weakens, with gold already having increased by 40% this year [6] Group 3 - The Hong Kong stock market shows no consistent pattern during U.S. preventive rate cuts, but recent trends indicate a growing influence from mainland policies rather than U.S. monetary policy [8][10] - The A-share market is currently approaching the 3900-point mark, with the impact of the Federal Reserve's rate cut being uncertain due to prior price adjustments [8][10] - The future performance of A-shares will largely depend on domestic economic policies and the pace of economic recovery, with external factors playing a lesser role [10]

时隔9个月，美联储降息重磅落地。 9月18日，美联储宣布2025年首次降息，美国联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）议息会议决定降息25个基 点，把联邦基金利率目标区间下调至4%到4.25%之间，这一决议符合市场普遍预期。 今日上午，黄金暂时高位回调，COMEX黄金低开3692.5美元/盎司，国内A股核心指数低开后震荡上 涨，截至上午10点30分，上证指数、深证成指均涨逾0.5%。热门概念方面，半导体、通信设备、芯片 等概念领涨，黄金珠宝跌近2%，黄金个股几乎全部下跌，曼卡龙跌逾4%，湖南黄金、西部黄金等多只 个股跌超2%。 美联储此次降息将如何影响全球市场？投资者关注的A股、港股、美股、黄金、债市等大类资产后续将 如何表现？贝壳财经记者综合整理了十大券商的主要观点。多家机构指出，本轮美联储降息仍为"预防 式降息"，总体上偏利好中国股市、债市和人民币汇率，其中，港股核心资产配置价值凸显。 不过，多家机构也提示，后续大类资产表现仍可能受多重因素的扰动。比如，海外央行货币宽松低于预 期；美国及我国宏观经济波动风险；中国政策力度、实施效果或经济复苏不及预期；地缘冲突蔓延等。 中信证券：港股核心资产配置价值凸显 预计本轮仍 ...

美联储降息影响几何？20250918 摘要 历史数据显示，温和预防式降息当日，标普 500 和纳斯达克上涨概率较 高，但涨幅温和；恒生指数平均微跌，上证指数反应平淡；伦敦金现上 涨概率较高，但涨幅有限，表明短期资金小幅获利了结，不影响整体上 涨趋势。 降息后一个季度内，美股科技板块（纳斯达克）通常领涨，上涨胜率高， 平均涨幅最高，受益于企业盈利稳定及流动性充裕；恒生指数受益程度 仅次于纳斯达克；伦敦金现虽上涨，但涨幅有限，胜率约 50%，表明流 动性充裕推动权益类资产，黄金受分流影响。 慢速预防式降息（如 1995-1998 年）期间，标普 500 和纳斯达克均翻 倍；2024 年 9 月以来类似降息期间，标普 500 和纳斯达克分别上涨 17%和 27%，通过稳定的政策呵护企业盈利。快速预防式降息（如 2019 年 8-10 月）压制市场表现，美股基本横盘，恒生指数下跌，黄金 跑赢风险资产。 应对衰退型降息（如 1984-1986 年及 1989-1992 年储贷危机期间）， 美股标普 500 在 1989 至 1992 年间上涨 30%，恒生指数大幅上涨 172%，关键在于危机未击穿盈利基本面，通过逐步修 ...

Monetary Policy Insights - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25%-4.50%, aligning with market expectations[5] - The pace of balance sheet reduction (QT Taper) will slow from $25 billion to $5 billion per month starting April 1, while MBS reduction remains at $35 billion per month[5] - The median GDP growth forecast for 2025 was downgraded from 2.1% to 1.7%, and the unemployment rate forecast was adjusted from 4.3% to 4.4%[5] Inflation and Economic Outlook - The PCE inflation forecast for 2025 was revised up from 2.5% to 2.7%, with core PCE inflation rising from 2.5% to 2.8% due to tariff impacts[5] - The Fed's approach has shifted from preemptive rate cuts to a data-dependent strategy, indicating potential delays in response to economic downturns[11] - Current economic indicators, such as a stable unemployment rate at 4.1%, suggest that the economy remains in reasonable condition despite inflation concerns[10] Global Economic Context - The U.S. liquidity situation is tight, with the Fed's total assets reduced to $6.7 trillion, returning to pre-pandemic levels[7] - China's economic challenges are characterized by deflation rather than inflation, with net exports contributing 30% to GDP in 2024, the highest since the 2008 financial crisis[12] - The need for proactive monetary policy adjustments in China is emphasized, particularly in light of potential U.S. economic downturns and tariff impacts[13]