策 略 研 究 华福证券 TMT 多主题走出主升形态 团队成员 投资要点： 策 略 定 期 报 告 主题投资数据库旨在筛选优秀量价形态的主题机会，把握热门主题的 见顶节奏、龙头股的调整程度。在 3/9 发布的《主题投资的下半场决胜法 则》中，我们构建了主题投资的数据追踪体系。我们专注于 2 方面：1）4 种形态量化筛选，高赔率的主题机会；2）构建交易热度指标，把握热门主 题的见顶节奏，并最新增加了龙头股的调整程度观察。后续，我们将定期 更新主题投资数据体系。我们希望通过这种偏量化的方式，给予投资者更 客观的参考，把握住主题投资的行情节奏。 TMT 多主题走出主升形态。本期走出见底、突破、主升、加速的主题 指数数量分别有 0、5、36、7 只。其中，5 只突破形态的主题指数，行业 主要为有色金属。36 只主升形态的主题指数，行业主要为电子、计算机、 通信。7 只加速形态的主题指数，行业主要为电子。 人形机器人、Deepseek 主题交易热度有所上升，对应龙头股收盘价高 于 MA60 的位置。我们对人形机器人、Deepseek 主题进行交易热度的监控， 并且观察龙头股的调整程度。其中，人形机器人的交易热度上升至 ...

Group 1 - The report emphasizes the establishment of a thematic investment database aimed at identifying high-potential opportunities and monitoring peak trends in popular themes, focusing on quantitative screening of four patterns and trading heat indicators [2][9]. - In the current period, 21 thematic indices have emerged in a primary upward trend, primarily from the non-ferrous metals, pharmaceutical biology, and basic chemicals sectors, while one index is in an accelerated phase from the electric equipment industry [12][16]. Group 2 - The trading heat for humanoid robots has decreased to 77%, with the leading stock, Changsheng Bearing, closing 23.5% above its 60-day moving average (MA60) [3][16]. - The trading heat for the Deepseek theme has dropped to 81%, with the leading stock, Daily Interaction, closing 5.6% above its MA60 [3][16].

Group 1 - The report emphasizes the establishment of a theme investment database aimed at identifying high-quality price-volume patterns and monitoring the peak rhythm of popular themes and the adjustment levels of leading stocks [2][9]. - The report identifies a total of 30 theme indices in various stages: 0 at the bottom, 5 in breakout, 24 in main rise, and 1 in acceleration, with the automotive industry being prominent among the breakout indices and the pharmaceutical, computer, and communication industries among the main rise indices [12]. - The trading heat for humanoid robots and Deepseek themes has shown a slight recovery, with both themes reaching a trading heat of 82%, indicating a positive market sentiment [3][17]. Group 2 - The report outlines two main objectives of the theme database: to find investment opportunities and to provide warnings for potential peaks in the market [9]. - The report highlights the importance of monitoring leading stocks' positions, with Longsheng Bearing's closing price exceeding its 60-day moving average by 9.2% and Daily Interaction's closing price exceeding its 60-day moving average by 2.1% [17][22]. - The report indicates that the trading heat rising to 90%-95% may suggest that the theme or stage is becoming overheated, which could be a critical indicator for investors [20].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In H1 2025, convertible bonds showed an "N"-shaped upward fluctuation driven by multiple factors. The convertible bond index outperformed major stock indices, and the valuation increased by 3.58pct compared to the end of 2024. The convertible bond market experienced two rises and two falls, which can be divided into three stages: the valuation increase supported by the capital of convertible bonds from the end of 2024 to before the Spring Festival, the technology sector theme fever from after the Spring Festival to the end of March, and the callback and rebound of convertible bonds following the equity market under the tariff disturbances from early April to June [2][9]. - The convertible bond market presented strong performance. From the beginning of 2025 to June 30, the CSI Convertible Bond Index outperformed major equity market indices. The net value of convertible bond funds rose by 7.48% in H1 2025, better than that of first - and second - tier bond funds and partial - debt funds. The maximum drawdown of convertible bond funds was - 8.38%, which was better than that of stock - type and partial - stock - type funds [12]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 2025H1 Convertible Bond Market: Fluctuating with the Underlying Stocks under the Macroeconomic Narrative, with Better Stability - **Convertible Bond Terms**: In 2025, the number of forced redemptions remained high. A total of 96 convertible bonds triggered the forced redemption clause, and 36 were announced for redemption, with a forced redemption probability of 37.5%, slightly lower than 42.4% in 2024. The number of times the downward revision clause was triggered decreased, and the probability of downward revision also declined. The number and balance of convertible bonds entering the put - back period were still large, but put - back events only occurred sporadically [3][21][22]. - **Supply - Demand Structure**: The supply improved significantly year - on - year but was uneven. A total of 19 convertible bonds were issued in H1 2025, with a scale of 21.775 billion yuan, up 58.33% and 68.66% respectively compared to H1 2024. High - rating and large - cap convertible bonds had relatively weak issuance. On the demand side, most major holders reduced their positions, but securities firms and private funds increased their holdings [4][30][42]. 3.2 Stage Review: Convertible Bonds' Resistance to Decline - Theme Fever - External Disturbances - **January 2 - January 27**: Equity market had a small "V" - shaped reversal, and convertible bonds maintained a high - level valuation. At the beginning of the year, the equity market's callback and the spill - over effect from pure bonds catalyzed a rapid increase in the valuation of convertible bonds. Insurance funds and ETFs' increased holdings supported the valuation. The 100 - yuan premium rate increased by 3.43pct to 24.10% [5][58][63]. - **February 5 - March 31**: The technology theme fever catalyzed the convertible bond market. After the Spring Festival, the technology theme drove the equity market, and the convertible bond market was affected by the redemption pressure of bond funds, with its elasticity being less than that of the equity market, and the valuation decreased by 1.82pct to 22.28% [5][58][66]. - **April 1 - June 30**: External uncertainties were controllable, and the hot spots shifted to the pharmaceutical and consumer sectors. The tariff disturbances led to a callback in the equity market in April, but the impact was controllable. The convertible bond style turned to be more stable, and the valuation was relatively firm. The 100 - yuan premium rate increased by 2.44pct to 24.72% [5][58][71].

Group 1 - The report emphasizes the establishment of a theme investment database aimed at identifying high-quality price-volume patterns and monitoring the peak rhythm of popular themes and the adjustment levels of leading stocks [2][9]. - The report highlights the quantitative screening of four types of patterns to identify high-odds thematic opportunities and the construction of trading heat indicators to grasp the peak rhythm of popular themes [2][9]. - In the current period, three thematic indices have shown breakthrough patterns in the transportation, computer, and defense industries, while one thematic index from the electronics industry has shown a main rising pattern [12]. Group 2 - The trading heat for the humanoid robot theme has decreased to 52%, with the closing price of Changsheng Bearing being 13.1% below the MA60 level [3][16]. - The trading heat for the Deepseek theme has also declined to 55%, with the closing price of Daily Interaction being 12.4% below the MA60 level [3][16].

Core Viewpoint - The 2025 Lujiazui Forum emphasizes the importance of financial openness and cooperation in the context of global economic changes, focusing on high-quality development. Group 1: Policy Measures and Reforms - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) announced the "1+6" policy measures to deepen reforms in the Sci-Tech Innovation Board and the Growth Enterprise Market, aiming to enhance the inclusiveness and adaptability of the system [2] - The "1" refers to the establishment of a growth layer in the Sci-Tech Innovation Board and the reintroduction of the fifth set of listing standards for unprofitable companies, targeting high-quality tech firms with significant breakthroughs and strong R&D investments [2] - The "6" includes six specific reform measures, such as introducing a professional institutional investor system, expanding the fifth set of standards to more frontier tech sectors, and improving the refinancing system for Sci-Tech Innovation Board companies [2] Group 2: Investment and Financing Strategies - The CSRC aims to guide more medium- and long-term funds into technology enterprise investments by developing more technology innovation indices and public fund products [3] - Emphasizing that listing is a starting point and financing is a tool, the CSRC will continuously improve the regulatory framework for listed companies [4] - The approval of the first two data center REITs in the country is part of efforts to enhance the synergy between equity and debt financing for tech innovation [5] Group 3: Capital Market Development - The CSRC is pushing for the regularization of fund share transfer trials and optimizing mechanisms for physical stock distribution and reverse linkage [6] - The current global tech innovation landscape is described as entering a period of intense activity, with a shift from isolated breakthroughs to systematic integration [8] - The CSRC is committed to fostering patient and long-term capital, focusing on private equity fund management and encouraging participation from social security funds and insurance capital [10] Group 4: Ecosystem for Innovation - The capital market in China has undergone significant structural changes, effectively promoting a virtuous cycle among technology, capital, and industry [11] - Both large tech giants and smaller innovative firms rely heavily on the support of the capital market, which provides unique mechanisms for risk-sharing and incentive alignment [12]

Group 1 - The report focuses on a theme investment database aimed at identifying high-quality price-volume patterns and monitoring the peak rhythm of popular themes and the adjustment levels of leading stocks [2][9]. - The report highlights two main aspects: 1) Quantitative screening of four types of patterns for high-odds theme opportunities; 2) Construction of trading heat indicators to grasp the peak rhythm of popular themes, with an added observation of leading stock adjustments [2][9]. - In the current period, there are no stocks showing a bottoming pattern, 12 stocks showing a breakout pattern, 8 stocks showing a main rising pattern, and no stocks showing an acceleration pattern. Among the 12 stocks with breakout patterns, 6 are in the computer industry, while 5 of the 8 main rising stocks are in the non-ferrous metals industry [12]. Group 2 - The trading heat for the humanoid robot theme has decreased to 53%, with the closing price of Changsheng Bearing being 11.9% below the MA60. For the Deepseek theme, the trading heat has dropped to 55%, with Daily Interaction's closing price being 11.2% below the MA60 [3][16].

Group 1 - The report emphasizes the establishment of a thematic investment database aimed at identifying high-potential opportunities and warning against market peaks, focusing on quantitative screening of four patterns and monitoring trading heat indicators [3][10]. - In the TMT sector, various themes have shown promising patterns, with 1 bottoming pattern in the power equipment industry, 15 breakout patterns primarily in the computer sector, 20 main rising patterns including 6 in telecommunications, 4 in electronics, and 3 in non-ferrous metals, and 2 acceleration patterns in telecommunications and electronics [12][10]. Group 2 - The trading heat for the humanoid robot theme has decreased to 60%, with the leading stock Changsheng Bearing's closing price being 12.1% below its 60-day moving average (MA60). Conversely, the Deepseek theme's trading heat has increased to 62%, with the leading stock Daily Interaction's closing price being 5% below its MA60 [4][16].

Group 1 - The report emphasizes the importance of a thematic investment database aimed at identifying high-potential opportunities and monitoring peak trends in popular themes, along with the adjustment levels of leading stocks [2][9] - The report outlines a quantitative screening process focusing on four types of patterns to identify high-odds thematic opportunities and the construction of trading heat indicators to track peak trends [2][9] - The current thematic index shows 27 breakout patterns, primarily in the defense and military industry (6 stocks) and non-ferrous metals (5 stocks), while 20 stocks exhibit main rising patterns, including 8 in the pharmaceutical and biological sector and 7 in the computer industry [12] Group 2 - The trading heat for the humanoid robot and Deepseek themes has declined, with humanoid robots at 67% and Deepseek at 53%, indicating a downward trend in interest [3][17] - Leading stocks in these themes, such as Changsheng Bearing and Daily Interaction, are trading below their 60-day moving average by -16% and -14.9% respectively, suggesting a bearish sentiment [3][17]

Core Viewpoint - The recent earnings performance of technology companies was in line with expectations, and the market is looking for new catalysts to drive growth, particularly in terms of revenue or profit guidance exceeding expectations [1] Group 1: Market Insights - After the favorable factors related to Deepseek have diminished, the market requires new news to maintain optimism [1] - The next potential catalyst for the market could be companies providing revenue or profit guidance that surpasses expectations [1] Group 2: Stock Selection Strategy - Current stock selection should avoid highly competitive sectors, such as food delivery platforms [1] - In contrast, the revenue visibility for mobile gaming companies is high, especially with the continuous issuance of game licenses by the central government, indicating a positive outlook for this sector [1]