Group 1: Market Insights from 2014-2015 Bull Market - The market style during the bull market from 2014 to 2015 showed a pattern of "rapid rise - retreat and bottoming," with the market crowding degree reaching a low of around 20% in early July 2025 and peaking at 30% in early September 2025 [1][10] - In the first phase of the 2014-2015 bull market, financial and stable styles led the gains, but during the consolidation phase, they significantly underperformed, while growth styles gradually took the lead [1][15] - The first phase saw non-bank financials, banks, construction decoration, steel, and real estate sectors leading the gains, but all fell to the lower ranks during the adjustment phase [2][18] Group 2: Current Economic Data - In August 2025, key economic indicators showed a marginal decline, with industrial value added growing by 5.2% year-on-year, below the expected 5.75% [3][27] - Social consumption in August increased by 3.4% year-on-year, also lower than the expected 3.82%, indicating a slowdown in consumer spending [3][36] - Fixed asset investment growth was only 0.5% in August, down from 1.6% in July, reflecting a continued decline in investment activity [3][43] Group 3: Industry Performance - In the current consolidation phase, industries such as communication, electronics, and power equipment have maintained strong performance, while the non-ferrous metals sector has seen a decline [2][23] - The coal sector has improved significantly, rising from 28th to 9th place in terms of performance during the adjustment phase, indicating a recovery in previously lagging industries [2][23] - The top-performing industries during the current phase include communication, electronics, and power equipment, with communication showing a gain of over 40% [2][23]

Group 1 - The report emphasizes the establishment of a thematic investment database aimed at identifying high-quality price-volume patterns and monitoring the peak rhythm of popular themes and the adjustment levels of leading stocks [2][9]. - The thematic indices show various patterns, with 0 at the bottom, 6 in breakout, 17 in main rise, and 11 in acceleration. The main industries for breakout are communication, transportation, and agriculture, while the main industries for the main rise are non-ferrous metals, communication, and electronics [12]. - The trading heat for humanoid robots has risen to 89%, with Changsheng Bearing's closing price above MA60 by 8.3%. For Deepseek, the trading heat is at 76%, with Daily Interaction's closing price above MA60 by 11.9% [3][17]. Group 2 - The report outlines two main objectives of the thematic database: to find investment opportunities and to provide warnings for potential peaks [9]. - The report indicates a quantitative screening of four types of patterns to identify high-odds thematic opportunities and the construction of trading heat indicators to grasp the peak rhythm of popular themes [2][9]. - The report will regularly update the thematic investment data system to provide investors with more objective references for capturing the rhythm of thematic investments [9].

Core Insights - As of August 28, TMT transaction share stands at 40.8%, with the highest levels for Deepseek and ChatGPT at 46.5% and 50.24% respectively in 2023 [1][4] Group 1: TMT Market Performance - The current TMT transaction share is 40.8%, with the highest recorded for Deepseek at 46.5% and ChatGPT at 50.24% in 2023 [1] - The adjusted metric of transaction share to free float market cap ratio is currently at 1.57, compared to 1.93 for Deepseek and 2.44 for ChatGPT earlier this year [4] Group 2: Electronics and Communication Sector - The transaction share for the electronics and communication sectors is currently at 25.6%, reaching the highest level since the beginning of 2023 [7] - The adjusted transaction share to free float market cap ratio for these sectors is at 1.49, which is not extreme compared to past peaks above 1.7 [7] Group 3: Market Concentration - The concentration of the top 20% stocks by transaction volume in the communication sector is at 70%, while in the electronics sector it is at 68%, indicating a recent increase but not reaching historical extremes [10]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of a thematic investment database aimed at identifying high-quality price-volume patterns and monitoring the peak rhythm of popular themes and the adjustment levels of leading stocks [3][10]. - The TMT sector has shown a significant number of themes in various stages of market movement, with 36 themes in a primary upward trend, primarily in electronics, computers, and communications [12]. Thematic Investment Database - The thematic investment database serves two main purposes: to identify opportunities and to provide warnings for potential peaks [10]. - The database focuses on two aspects: quantifying four types of patterns for high-yield thematic opportunities and constructing trading heat indicators to grasp the peak rhythm of popular themes [3][10]. Screening of High-Quality Price-Volume Patterns - In the current period, there are 0 themes at the bottom, 5 themes breaking out, 36 themes in a primary upward trend, and 7 themes accelerating. The breakout themes are mainly in the non-ferrous metals sector [12]. - The primary upward themes are concentrated in the electronics, computer, and communication industries [12]. Monitoring Popular Themes and Leading Stocks - The trading heat for humanoid robots has risen to 82%, with the closing price of Changsheng Bearing exceeding its 60-day moving average (MA60) by 20.5%. For the Deepseek theme, the trading heat has increased to 86%, with Daily Interaction's closing price above MA60 by 33.5% [4][17].

Group 1 - The report emphasizes the establishment of a thematic investment database aimed at identifying high-potential opportunities and monitoring peak trends in popular themes, focusing on quantitative screening of four patterns and trading heat indicators [2][9]. - In the current period, 21 thematic indices have emerged in a primary upward trend, primarily from the non-ferrous metals, pharmaceutical biology, and basic chemicals sectors, while one index is in an accelerated phase from the electric equipment industry [12][16]. Group 2 - The trading heat for humanoid robots has decreased to 77%, with the leading stock, Changsheng Bearing, closing 23.5% above its 60-day moving average (MA60) [3][16]. - The trading heat for the Deepseek theme has dropped to 81%, with the leading stock, Daily Interaction, closing 5.6% above its MA60 [3][16].

Group 1 - The report emphasizes the establishment of a theme investment database aimed at identifying high-quality price-volume patterns and monitoring the peak rhythm of popular themes and the adjustment levels of leading stocks [2][9]. - The report identifies a total of 30 theme indices in various stages: 0 at the bottom, 5 in breakout, 24 in main rise, and 1 in acceleration, with the automotive industry being prominent among the breakout indices and the pharmaceutical, computer, and communication industries among the main rise indices [12]. - The trading heat for humanoid robots and Deepseek themes has shown a slight recovery, with both themes reaching a trading heat of 82%, indicating a positive market sentiment [3][17]. Group 2 - The report outlines two main objectives of the theme database: to find investment opportunities and to provide warnings for potential peaks in the market [9]. - The report highlights the importance of monitoring leading stocks' positions, with Longsheng Bearing's closing price exceeding its 60-day moving average by 9.2% and Daily Interaction's closing price exceeding its 60-day moving average by 2.1% [17][22]. - The report indicates that the trading heat rising to 90%-95% may suggest that the theme or stage is becoming overheated, which could be a critical indicator for investors [20].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In H1 2025, convertible bonds showed an "N"-shaped upward fluctuation driven by multiple factors. The convertible bond index outperformed major stock indices, and the valuation increased by 3.58pct compared to the end of 2024. The convertible bond market experienced two rises and two falls, which can be divided into three stages: the valuation increase supported by the capital of convertible bonds from the end of 2024 to before the Spring Festival, the technology sector theme fever from after the Spring Festival to the end of March, and the callback and rebound of convertible bonds following the equity market under the tariff disturbances from early April to June [2][9]. - The convertible bond market presented strong performance. From the beginning of 2025 to June 30, the CSI Convertible Bond Index outperformed major equity market indices. The net value of convertible bond funds rose by 7.48% in H1 2025, better than that of first - and second - tier bond funds and partial - debt funds. The maximum drawdown of convertible bond funds was - 8.38%, which was better than that of stock - type and partial - stock - type funds [12]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 2025H1 Convertible Bond Market: Fluctuating with the Underlying Stocks under the Macroeconomic Narrative, with Better Stability - **Convertible Bond Terms**: In 2025, the number of forced redemptions remained high. A total of 96 convertible bonds triggered the forced redemption clause, and 36 were announced for redemption, with a forced redemption probability of 37.5%, slightly lower than 42.4% in 2024. The number of times the downward revision clause was triggered decreased, and the probability of downward revision also declined. The number and balance of convertible bonds entering the put - back period were still large, but put - back events only occurred sporadically [3][21][22]. - **Supply - Demand Structure**: The supply improved significantly year - on - year but was uneven. A total of 19 convertible bonds were issued in H1 2025, with a scale of 21.775 billion yuan, up 58.33% and 68.66% respectively compared to H1 2024. High - rating and large - cap convertible bonds had relatively weak issuance. On the demand side, most major holders reduced their positions, but securities firms and private funds increased their holdings [4][30][42]. 3.2 Stage Review: Convertible Bonds' Resistance to Decline - Theme Fever - External Disturbances - **January 2 - January 27**: Equity market had a small "V" - shaped reversal, and convertible bonds maintained a high - level valuation. At the beginning of the year, the equity market's callback and the spill - over effect from pure bonds catalyzed a rapid increase in the valuation of convertible bonds. Insurance funds and ETFs' increased holdings supported the valuation. The 100 - yuan premium rate increased by 3.43pct to 24.10% [5][58][63]. - **February 5 - March 31**: The technology theme fever catalyzed the convertible bond market. After the Spring Festival, the technology theme drove the equity market, and the convertible bond market was affected by the redemption pressure of bond funds, with its elasticity being less than that of the equity market, and the valuation decreased by 1.82pct to 22.28% [5][58][66]. - **April 1 - June 30**: External uncertainties were controllable, and the hot spots shifted to the pharmaceutical and consumer sectors. The tariff disturbances led to a callback in the equity market in April, but the impact was controllable. The convertible bond style turned to be more stable, and the valuation was relatively firm. The 100 - yuan premium rate increased by 2.44pct to 24.72% [5][58][71].

Group 1 - The report emphasizes the establishment of a theme investment database aimed at identifying high-quality price-volume patterns and monitoring the peak rhythm of popular themes and the adjustment levels of leading stocks [2][9]. - The report highlights the quantitative screening of four types of patterns to identify high-odds thematic opportunities and the construction of trading heat indicators to grasp the peak rhythm of popular themes [2][9]. - In the current period, three thematic indices have shown breakthrough patterns in the transportation, computer, and defense industries, while one thematic index from the electronics industry has shown a main rising pattern [12]. Group 2 - The trading heat for the humanoid robot theme has decreased to 52%, with the closing price of Changsheng Bearing being 13.1% below the MA60 level [3][16]. - The trading heat for the Deepseek theme has also declined to 55%, with the closing price of Daily Interaction being 12.4% below the MA60 level [3][16].

Core Viewpoint - The 2025 Lujiazui Forum emphasizes the importance of financial openness and cooperation in the context of global economic changes, focusing on high-quality development. Group 1: Policy Measures and Reforms - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) announced the "1+6" policy measures to deepen reforms in the Sci-Tech Innovation Board and the Growth Enterprise Market, aiming to enhance the inclusiveness and adaptability of the system [2] - The "1" refers to the establishment of a growth layer in the Sci-Tech Innovation Board and the reintroduction of the fifth set of listing standards for unprofitable companies, targeting high-quality tech firms with significant breakthroughs and strong R&D investments [2] - The "6" includes six specific reform measures, such as introducing a professional institutional investor system, expanding the fifth set of standards to more frontier tech sectors, and improving the refinancing system for Sci-Tech Innovation Board companies [2] Group 2: Investment and Financing Strategies - The CSRC aims to guide more medium- and long-term funds into technology enterprise investments by developing more technology innovation indices and public fund products [3] - Emphasizing that listing is a starting point and financing is a tool, the CSRC will continuously improve the regulatory framework for listed companies [4] - The approval of the first two data center REITs in the country is part of efforts to enhance the synergy between equity and debt financing for tech innovation [5] Group 3: Capital Market Development - The CSRC is pushing for the regularization of fund share transfer trials and optimizing mechanisms for physical stock distribution and reverse linkage [6] - The current global tech innovation landscape is described as entering a period of intense activity, with a shift from isolated breakthroughs to systematic integration [8] - The CSRC is committed to fostering patient and long-term capital, focusing on private equity fund management and encouraging participation from social security funds and insurance capital [10] Group 4: Ecosystem for Innovation - The capital market in China has undergone significant structural changes, effectively promoting a virtuous cycle among technology, capital, and industry [11] - Both large tech giants and smaller innovative firms rely heavily on the support of the capital market, which provides unique mechanisms for risk-sharing and incentive alignment [12]

Group 1 - The report focuses on a theme investment database aimed at identifying high-quality price-volume patterns and monitoring the peak rhythm of popular themes and the adjustment levels of leading stocks [2][9]. - The report highlights two main aspects: 1) Quantitative screening of four types of patterns for high-odds theme opportunities; 2) Construction of trading heat indicators to grasp the peak rhythm of popular themes, with an added observation of leading stock adjustments [2][9]. - In the current period, there are no stocks showing a bottoming pattern, 12 stocks showing a breakout pattern, 8 stocks showing a main rising pattern, and no stocks showing an acceleration pattern. Among the 12 stocks with breakout patterns, 6 are in the computer industry, while 5 of the 8 main rising stocks are in the non-ferrous metals industry [12]. Group 2 - The trading heat for the humanoid robot theme has decreased to 53%, with the closing price of Changsheng Bearing being 11.9% below the MA60. For the Deepseek theme, the trading heat has dropped to 55%, with Daily Interaction's closing price being 11.2% below the MA60 [3][16].