北京时间9月18日凌晨两点，美联储如期宣布降息25个基点。时隔一年，美联储再次降息有何影响？专 业人士认为，对于普通人来说，在美联储开启新一轮降息周期之下，国内存款利率有望进一步下降，居 民储蓄向资本市场大转移的趋势越来越明显。普通人可以通过提升对于股票和基金的配置比例，提高预 期回报。 中美货币政策周期再度同步 国盛证券首席经济学家熊园认为，从历史角度，美联储降息会影响大类资产，概括而言：1、美股：大 多保持上涨，仅"衰退式降息"情景下持续下跌；2、美债收益率：保持下行趋势；3、美元指数：短期偏 弱，中长期无一致规律；4、黄金：短期无一致规律，中长期大多上涨。具体到本次看，考虑到市场对 后续降息的预期已经打得很高，预计整体资产表现仍将与历史规律相似，只是影响幅度不会太大。 第三，中期关注特朗普和美国国会对2026财年新版财政法案的态度，预计美股泡沫化过程或将持续至明 年底，调整仍是机会。 前海开源基金首席经济学家杨德龙同样认为美联储降息对于全球资产会形成一定的影响。在宣布降息之 后，美股三大股指一度出现冲高，随后则出现快速回落。美元指数一度出现大跌，但尾盘出现反弹，最 终收涨。中概股则纷纷出现大涨，特别是知 ...

Group 1: Federal Reserve Rate Cut - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point rate cut, lowering the target range for the federal funds rate to 4%-4.25%, marking the first rate cut since December 2024 [2] - The market reaction showed a mixed performance, with the Dow Jones rising by 0.57%, while the S&P 500 slightly declined by 0.1%, and the Nasdaq fell by 0.33%, indicating varied responses to the rate cut [2] - Traditional sectors like utilities and consumer staples performed better due to lower financing costs and defensive attributes, while high-valuation tech stocks showed signs of profit-taking [2] Group 2: Market Reactions and Currency Movements - The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index surged by 2.85%, with notable gains in Chinese companies like Baidu, which rose by 11.3% [2] - The US dollar index experienced significant volatility, dropping to 96.22 before rebounding to around 97, while the onshore RMB closed at 7.1056 against the dollar, reaching a new high since November of the previous year [3] - Gold prices reached a historical high, surpassing $3700 per ounce, with a year-to-date increase exceeding 40% [3] Group 3: Economic Context and Implications - The Fed's rate cut is seen as a preventive measure amid slowing economic growth, with employment risks rising and non-farm payrolls increasing by only 22,000 in August, far below the expected 75,000 [3] - The current economic situation reflects a combination of economic slowdown and persistent inflation, complicating the Fed's decision-making process [5] - The rate cut is expected to stimulate economic activity through lower funding costs, impacting exchange rates, capital flows, and asset pricing [4] Group 4: Impact on China and Global Markets - The Fed's rate cut creates favorable conditions for China's central bank to consider rate cuts or reserve requirement ratio reductions to support the economy [7] - Chinese sectors such as metals, energy, and financials are likely to benefit from increased global liquidity and demand recovery, while export-oriented companies may face pressure from RMB appreciation [7] - The capital flow dynamics are influenced by the interest rate differential between the US and China, with a significant gap attracting capital towards US assets [6] Group 5: Implications for Individuals - The rate cut is expected to lower mortgage rates, easing monthly payment burdens for individuals [8] - Investment strategies may shift towards equities and gold, with recommendations for conservative investors to consider gold ETFs and high-grade bonds [8] - The Fed may implement additional rate cuts in the coming months, with the terminal rate projected between 3.5%-4.0%, balancing employment pressures and inflation control [9]

美联储9月16-17日举行议息会议，FOMC官员投票下调联邦基金利率25bp至4.00%-4.25%，这是自2024年9月启动 降息后首次降息。 值得注意的是，理事米兰（Stephen Miran）投下异议票，主张一次性降息50bp，但并没有受到广泛支持。 对于美联储的这场降息，会带来哪些影响？多位来自券商、基金的专业分析人士均认为此次降息符合市场预期。 此外，有券商观点指出，当前的美联储内部分歧相对明显，美联储主席鲍威尔目前正努力从分歧中寻找合适的降 息路径。 美联储降息符合市场预期 国盛证券首席经济学家熊园认为，美联储下调联邦基金利率25bp至4.0-4.25%，符合市场预期。点阵图与6月相 比，年内降息次数从2次增至3次，2026和2027年仍维持各1次不变。经济预测方面，上调了GDP和通胀预测，下调 了失业率预测。鲍威尔称本次降息应被视作是"风险缓释"的降息，50bp的降息幅度未获得广泛支持。 会议过后，主要资产价格V型反转，市场降息预期变化不大。利率期货隐含的10月降息概率维持80%左右，年内 剩余降息次数仍维持1.8次左右，即10月和12月连续降息的概率约80%。 开源证券宏观经济首席分析师何宁同 ...

广发证券资深宏观分析师 陈嘉荔 gfchenjiali@gf.com.cn 广发宏观郭磊团队 摘要 第二， 9 月点阵图（ dot plot ）显示至 2025 年底累计降息 75bp （ 6 月为 50bp ）， 2026 年和 2027 年各再降 25bp （和 6 月一致）。经济预测（ SEP ） 对 经济增长预期较 6 月 有所上修。 9 月 SEP 上调 2025 年、 2026 年和 2027 年实际 GDP 增速预测 0.2pct 、 0.2pct 、 0.1pct 至 1.6% 、 1.8% 、 1.9% ； 2025 年失业率中值预测维持在 4.5% ， 2026 年和 2027 年下修 0.1pct 至 4.4% 和 4.3% 。 2025 年核心 PCE 预测 3.1% ，持平于 6 月； 2026 上修 0.2pct 至 2.6% ， 2027 年保持不变 。 第三 ， 鲍威尔新闻发布会对本次降息的解读略偏鹰派。一是鲍威尔认为本次降息的目的是风险管理（ risk management cut ） ，正在把政策重点从通胀转向就 业 ；二是鲍威尔强调本次会议完全没有对降息 50bp 的支持 ...