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乱世出奇谋:嘉吉如何在津国通胀套利?
伍治坚证据主义· 2025-11-19 02:59
故事开始于 2003 年 ,地点是非洲东南部国家 津巴布韦 。 那时的津巴布韦正遭受一场骇人听闻的 恶性通货膨胀, 其物价以惊人的速度飙升,消费价格指数涨幅高达每年约 365% 左右【1】 。背后的原因主要是 国家治理系统性失灵、土地改革混乱以及政府无节制的财政支出。为了应对这场恶性通胀,津巴布韦央行采取了最粗暴的手段,那就是通过 滥发货币 来填 补财政窟窿。 让人毫不意外的,央行滥发货币导致其价值崩塌。由于货币的贬值速度太快,竟然发生 印钞机跟不上物价上涨速度的奇观。也就是说, 市场上急缺可用的 实体钞票,导致 津巴布韦的老百姓们, 进行日常交易所需的现金出现了严重短缺。这种短缺,对全社会造成方方面面的影响:不光老百姓受影响,还有各 种公司和机构。这其中,就包括一家跨国贸易商:嘉吉(Cargill)。 嘉吉是一家总部在美国的全球贸易商,其起源可以追溯到 1865 年。当时, 一位苏格兰移民的儿子, 威廉·华莱士·嘉吉(William Wallace Cargill), 在美国的明尼苏达州开设了第一个谷仓 。在接下来的一个多世纪里,该公司一直由嘉吉(Cargill)和麦克米伦(M acMillan)两个家族世 ...
机构看金市:8月27日
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-08-27 03:06
Core Viewpoint - The recent dismissal of Federal Reserve official Lisa Cook by Trump has heightened concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve, leading to increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [1][2][3] Group 1: Market Reactions - Trump's unexpected action has intensified fears regarding the Federal Reserve's independence and has raised expectations for potential interest rate cuts, pushing investors towards gold [1] - Following the dismissal, the gold price rebounded to a two-week high, supported by a decline in the dollar index [2] - The market now anticipates a greater than 87% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The upcoming U.S. core PCE inflation data is being closely monitored as it may provide insights into the Federal Reserve's policy direction [1][2] - Powell's dovish remarks at the global central bank meeting suggest a shift to a straightforward 2% inflation target, which may further support the case for a rate cut [2] Group 3: Long-term Outlook - The trend of central banks purchasing gold, combined with global monetary expansion and de-dollarization, is expected to support a long-term upward trend in gold prices [2] - Zang Enterprises highlights that physical precious metals may become the only safe haven amid potential financial crises triggered by inflationary policies and vulnerabilities in the U.S. debt market [3] Group 4: Technical Analysis - The next resistance level for gold is identified at $3,409, with subsequent levels at $3,439 and $3,451, while the first support level is at $3,268 [3]
伊朗副总统被解职
券商中国· 2025-04-05 23:26
Core Viewpoint - The Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian dismissed the Vice President responsible for parliamentary affairs due to an expensive trip to Antarctica amidst a severe economic crisis and hyperinflation in Iran [1]. Group 1 - The Vice President, Shahram Dabiri, was photographed near the "Plancius" cruise ship, which offers luxury Antarctic expeditions priced at €3,885 per person for an 8-day trip [1]. - The Iranian President stated that such expensive leisure trips by officials are unjustifiable given the economic pressures faced by the public, even if paid out of their own pockets [1]. - Following the release of the photograph, the government faced strong criticism, and several supporters of Pezeshkian urged for Dabiri's dismissal [3].