文 /巴九灵（微信公众号：吴晓波频道） 昨天早上，一段央视新闻的短视频在朋友圈刷屏了： 一名六旬白人男子戴着镣铐，身着黑色连帽运动衫，手握一瓶饮用水，身后跟随多名警员。他那标志性的八字胡微微上扬，向周围人说"新年快 乐"。脚下的蓝色地毯上，三个黄色字母异常显眼：DEA，美国缉毒署。 —— 智利总统博里奇 点击上图▲立即收听 " 今天是委内瑞拉，明天就可能是任何一个国家。 " 图源：央视新闻 曾经，这条办公室走廊见证无数毒枭的失魂落魄；如今，委内瑞拉总统马杜罗竟也出现于此。上个月，特朗普称他领导的"犯罪政权"是最大的毒 品贩卖网络，并派出军舰，发出"最后通牒"。 马杜罗的回应是"来抓我，懦夫们！我在总统府等着你们"。 当时很多人认为只是两位国际大嘴巴的例行嘴炮，结果1月3日凌晨，美国突然对委内瑞拉实施军事打击。下午，美媒就报道了马杜罗被美军抓 获并押送到纽约的新闻。 消息传到中国后，一部豆瓣评分只有6.6分的美剧《杰克·莱恩》火了。网友此前对剧情的评论是："太假了，五个CIA探员开着直升机到委内瑞 拉总统府大开杀戒。"马杜罗被抓后，"原来是一部预告片"。 委内瑞拉到底发生了什么？特朗普的意图是什么？中国又将面临 ...

The market ear 白银全面爆发：1979 年的 vibes 剧烈的突破、历史性的交易量以及日益固化的市场情绪表明，白银已经进入了最危险的阶 段。 白银的波动性飙升、叙事固化 碎南瓜乐队的《1979》承载着怀旧、政权更迭和周期终结的文化内涵。这首歌讲述了青春、 幻灭以及周期的终结——这与当下的白银市场有着令人不安的相似之处。 整整一年前的今天，我们撰文称白银值得买入。当时，看好白银的理由在于复苏、估值和 灵活性。而现在，理由则变成了 momentum、成交量激增以及历史回响。当白银迎来自 1998 年以来表现最佳的几周，并不断让人联想到 1979 年的行情时，这表明我们很可能 已接近后期阶段，而非刚刚开始。在这些阶段，波动性会飙升，市场叙事会固化，对于上 涨行情，卖出要比买入更合适。 让我们来看看关于白银的最新观察结果。 1979 白银有望迎来自 1979 年以来表现最好的一年——那一年发生了伊朗革命、第二次石油危 机、两位数的通货膨胀、美元贬值、苏联入侵阿富汗，以及亨特兄弟那次令人难忘的试图 垄断白银市场的举动。 本周白银上涨 18%。这是自 1998 年 2 月以来的最大涨幅（！）。而此前一周， ...

Core Viewpoint - The president anticipates a resurgence in manufacturing, while economists are predicting a recession and high inflation rates [1] Group 1 - The president's prediction indicates a potential shift in the manufacturing sector, suggesting optimism for growth and revitalization [1] - Economists' forecasts highlight concerns regarding economic stability, emphasizing the risks of recession and inflation that could impact various industries [1]

Core Insights - Venezuela possesses the largest oil reserves globally, totaling 303.2 billion barrels, surpassing Saudi Arabia's reserves by 36.2 billion barrels. However, despite this wealth, the country faces severe economic challenges, including a staggering inflation rate of 130,060% in 2018 and a significant drop in per capita GDP, which evaporated by $10,000 over five years [1][12]. Oil Quality and Extraction Challenges - While Venezuela's oil reserves are vast, the quality is poor, with 74% of the reserves being extra-heavy crude oil located in the Orinoco Belt. This type of oil is difficult to refine and process [3][5]. - The API gravity index, which measures oil quality, indicates that Venezuelan oil has an API of only 8 to 12, making it nearly immobile and requiring high extraction costs of $16.5 to $23.5 per barrel, with total costs potentially reaching $50 to $60 per barrel [5][7]. Production Decline and Economic Impact - Venezuela's oil production has drastically declined from 1.9 million barrels per day in 2015 to just 350,000 barrels per day in 2020, with a slight recovery to 1.048 million barrels per day by March 2025. This represents only 1% of the global daily production of 100 million barrels [10][20]. - The country's oil industry has suffered from a lack of investment and maintenance, leading to outdated facilities and low recovery rates, with some fields achieving less than 20% recovery compared to Saudi Arabia's 70% [8][10]. Government Policies and Economic Mismanagement - The Venezuelan government has historically mismanaged the oil sector, using the state-owned PDVSA as a cash cow without reinvesting in infrastructure or technology. This has led to a significant talent drain, with over 6 million Venezuelans, including many oil professionals, leaving the country between 2014 and 2020 [10][12]. - The government's monetary policy, characterized by excessive money printing to cover fiscal deficits, has resulted in hyperinflation and a devaluation of the currency, further exacerbating the economic crisis [12][13]. Sanctions and Market Dependency - U.S. sanctions have severely restricted Venezuela's ability to trade oil, particularly with American markets, leading to a significant drop in oil exports. In 2025, sanctions intensified, resulting in a 120,000-barrel decrease in exports compared to the previous year [14][16]. - China has become Venezuela's largest oil importer, with daily imports reaching 584,000 barrels in May 2025, a year-on-year increase of 11.21%. However, this dependency on China is precarious, as falling oil prices could lead to further financial losses for Venezuela [16][18]. Economic Viability and Future Outlook - Despite efforts to maintain oil production above 850,000 barrels per day, this volume is insufficient to support a population of 28 million, compounded by heavy external debt and ongoing U.S. sanctions, leaving the economy on the brink of collapse [20].

Core Insights - The article discusses the severe hyperinflation in Zimbabwe around 2003, where the Consumer Price Index increased by approximately 365% annually, primarily due to systemic governance failures, chaotic land reforms, and excessive government spending [2][4] - Cargill, a major multinational agricultural trader, faced significant challenges in Zimbabwe due to cash shortages caused by hyperinflation, which threatened its cotton procurement operations [5][6] Group 1: Cargill's Response to Hyperinflation - In response to the cash shortage, Cargill decided to issue its own currency, known as "Staley bucks," totaling 7.5 billion Zimbabwean dollars (approximately $2.2 million at the time), which were accepted as cash by the local population [6][7] - The issuance of Staley bucks allowed Cargill to pay cotton farmers, who then used the currency for immediate survival needs, thus preventing the currency from quickly returning to banks and allowing Cargill to benefit from the devaluation of the currency over time [7][11] Group 2: Financial Arbitrage and Profit Maximization - Cargill's strategy relied on the inability of farmers to immediately exchange Staley bucks for stable foreign currency, allowing Cargill to purchase cotton at a significantly reduced effective cost due to inflation eroding the value of the currency [11][12] - The operation was not a charitable act but a calculated financial arbitrage, where Cargill profited from the systemic crisis in Zimbabwe, effectively acting as a "shadow central bank" [12][14] Group 3: Long-term Implications and Lessons - Cargill's experience in Zimbabwe provided valuable insights for commodity traders on how to navigate high-risk markets, influencing their strategies in other volatile regions [12][13] - The article highlights the role of multinational corporations in filling governance vacuums in unstable countries, often gaining significant financial and political leverage while operating in morally ambiguous environments [13][14]

Core Viewpoint - The recent dismissal of Federal Reserve official Lisa Cook by Trump has heightened concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve, leading to increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [1][2][3] Group 1: Market Reactions - Trump's unexpected action has intensified fears regarding the Federal Reserve's independence and has raised expectations for potential interest rate cuts, pushing investors towards gold [1] - Following the dismissal, the gold price rebounded to a two-week high, supported by a decline in the dollar index [2] - The market now anticipates a greater than 87% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The upcoming U.S. core PCE inflation data is being closely monitored as it may provide insights into the Federal Reserve's policy direction [1][2] - Powell's dovish remarks at the global central bank meeting suggest a shift to a straightforward 2% inflation target, which may further support the case for a rate cut [2] Group 3: Long-term Outlook - The trend of central banks purchasing gold, combined with global monetary expansion and de-dollarization, is expected to support a long-term upward trend in gold prices [2] - Zang Enterprises highlights that physical precious metals may become the only safe haven amid potential financial crises triggered by inflationary policies and vulnerabilities in the U.S. debt market [3] Group 4: Technical Analysis - The next resistance level for gold is identified at $3,409, with subsequent levels at $3,439 and $3,451, while the first support level is at $3,268 [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian dismissed the Vice President responsible for parliamentary affairs due to an expensive trip to Antarctica amidst a severe economic crisis and hyperinflation in Iran [1]. Group 1 - The Vice President, Shahram Dabiri, was photographed near the "Plancius" cruise ship, which offers luxury Antarctic expeditions priced at €3,885 per person for an 8-day trip [1]. - The Iranian President stated that such expensive leisure trips by officials are unjustifiable given the economic pressures faced by the public, even if paid out of their own pockets [1]. - Following the release of the photograph, the government faced strong criticism, and several supporters of Pezeshkian urged for Dabiri's dismissal [3].