Core Viewpoint - The president anticipates a resurgence in manufacturing, while economists are predicting a recession and high inflation rates [1] Group 1 - The president's prediction indicates a potential shift in the manufacturing sector, suggesting optimism for growth and revitalization [1] - Economists' forecasts highlight concerns regarding economic stability, emphasizing the risks of recession and inflation that could impact various industries [1]

站在2025年的尾声，回望过去的一年，人类似乎正站在一个历史的十字路口上。 如果说4年前甚至8年前，对华"脱钩"还只是一个带有情绪色彩的政治口号，那么到了今天，它已经变成 了一场触目惊心的"尸检报告"。 最近，美国彭博社发布了一篇深度分析文章，文章揭示了一个极其矛盾的现象：美国誓言要实现的"制 造业复兴"并没有发生，工厂在裁员，建设在停滞； 但另一方面，它却极其成功地实现了一个战略目标，也就是将中国在美国进口版图中的地位，硬生生地 打回了2001年。 在特朗普开启第二任期之初，白宫曾描绘过一副壮丽的蓝图：高筑的关税高墙将迫使资本回流，铁锈带 将重新燃起炉火，美国将迎来一个制造业的"黄金时代"。 然而，现实的情况果真如此吗？ 为了把中国在美国进口市场的份额从2017年巅峰时期的21%拽下来，白宫里的操盘手们用尽了所有能动 用的行政资源，从甚至不惜让盟友侧目的"选边站队"，到层层加码的关税铁丝网。 最终，他们把这个数字硬生生地按到了个位数——9%。 2001年，那时候中国才刚刚叩开世贸组织的大门。谁能想到，美国竟然真的只用了不到两个总统任期的 时间，就在纸面上抹平了全球化整整25年的自然进化轨迹，强行把中美贸易拨 ...

以下文章来源于远川科技评论 ，作者徐珊珊 今年6月的欧洲电池展，大众旗下电池公司 PowerCo 的COO Sebastian Wolf 面对在场同胞毫不客气，表示欧洲在动力 电池环节已经被东亚人远远甩在了后面[1]： 我们正在从老师变成学生。 入职大众前，Sebastian Wolf在博世爬过技术的雪山，在孚能科技趟过业务的草地。这番话的背景是欧洲电池公司接二 连三垮台，2020年至今，中国电池公司在欧洲市场的份额从10%提高到了65%，仅宁德时代一家就占了45%。 作为动力电池产业的老革命，Sebastian Wolf可谓看在眼里，痛在心上。 欧洲车企在电动化上步履蹒跚，但在动力电池这个赛道上，欧洲可谓起步早、决心强、投入大。动力电池既承载着减 碳环保的大义，又肩负着欧洲汽车工业再续辉煌的重任，精神文明物质文明两手都要抓。 过去几年，欧洲大陆围绕动力电池量产开启了浩浩荡荡的制造业复兴运动，既艰苦卓绝、又筚路蓝缕，遗憾的是直到 今天，Made by Europe的量产电芯依然为零。 远川科技评论 . 刻画这个时代（的前沿科技） 目前，全球动力电池装机量TOP10榜单中，中国公司占据六席，日韩公司占据四席，前 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Trump administration is proposing a significant regulatory change to expedite the approval process for AI data center construction, reducing the review time from years to 60 days, which is seen as a major benefit for tech giants and the administration's AI ambitions [1][2]. Group 1: Regulatory Changes - The U.S. Secretary of Energy, Chris Wright, has urged the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) to fast-track applications for data center grid connections, limiting the review period to 60 days [1]. - This proposed rule represents a disruptive shift from the current lengthy regulatory process, which can take several years [1][3]. Group 2: Support for AI and Manufacturing - The initiative aims to support President Trump's goals of revitalizing domestic manufacturing and promoting AI innovation, ensuring that all Americans and domestic industries have access to affordable, reliable, and secure electricity [2]. - Wright emphasized that large power loads, such as AI data centers, must connect to the transmission system in a timely and non-discriminatory manner, requiring unprecedented amounts of electricity and significant investment in the national grid [2]. Group 3: Industry Reactions and Conditions - The tech industry has expressed dissatisfaction with existing approval mechanisms, particularly following FERC's rejection of Talen Energy's request to supply power directly from a nuclear plant to an Amazon data center [3]. - To qualify for the expedited 60-day review, data center projects must either build new power plants or agree to reduce electricity usage during regional shortages [3]. Group 4: Local Challenges and Concerns - Despite the potential benefits for the tech industry, local governments are facing challenges due to rising electricity demands from data centers, manufacturing, and electric vehicles [4]. - There are concerns that allowing these "power-hungry" data centers to quickly connect to the grid will inevitably increase electricity bills for households and businesses, leading to a contentious debate over cost-sharing and energy equity [4].

Core Viewpoint - The current market environment is characterized by anticipated volatility due to various factors including US-China trade talks and domestic lending concerns, with a generally positive long-term outlook for the US economy despite short-term fluctuations [1][2]. Market Volatility and Economic Outlook - The potential for increased volatility is acknowledged, particularly in light of the US-China trade discussions and upcoming economic data releases, which are causing investor concern [1][2]. - The outlook for the US economy remains positive, with expectations of growth supported by increased lending for manufacturing and AI development, although this growth may come with accompanying volatility [2]. Government Shutdown Impact - The ongoing government shutdown is expected to create some market volatility, but historically, such shutdowns have not had a significant long-term impact on the markets [3][4]. - While there may be short-term nervousness and a slight increase in demand for gold and treasuries, the overall effect on the markets is not viewed as a primary concern [4]. Earnings Season Insights - Earnings season shows a divergence in performance, with the "Magnificent Seven" tech stocks expected to see a 15% year-over-year earnings increase, while the remaining 493 companies are projected to grow by just under 7% [5][6]. - Broader tech sector earnings are estimated to rise by 17%, contrasting with a mere 2% growth for the rest of the market, indicating a significant disparity in performance [6][7]. - The non-tech sectors, particularly value and goods producers, are facing challenges due to tariffs, leading to depressed earnings growth compared to earlier expectations [7][8]. Investment Strategy - The current investment strategy favors US equities, particularly within the NASDAQ, due to superior earnings growth potential in the tech sector [8][9]. - A wait-and-see approach is suggested for other market segments to recover from tariff impacts before considering them as attractive investment opportunities [9].

Economic Outlook - The Federal Reserve is expected to implement a 25 basis points rate cut, which is largely anticipated by the market [2][3] - The current economic environment is characterized by low unemployment, deregulation, and growing profit growth, contributing to a positive market setup [6][7] Market Performance - Since late April, the S&P 500 has only closed down more than 1% on three occasions, indicating a strong upward trend in the market [4][5] - The market has seen a 32% increase from the lows on April 8, reflecting a robust economic recovery [7] Consumer Spending - Recent retail sales data has exceeded expectations, indicating strong consumer spending, particularly among wealthier demographics [13][14] - Back-to-school shopping has been strong, serving as a positive precursor for holiday sales [16] Company Insights - Companies like Deckers, which owns brands such as Hoka and UGG, are expected to see double-digit earnings growth despite a 43% decline in stock price this year [17] - Gap Inc. is gaining market share in the denim sector, positioning itself well for future growth [18] - Target is viewed as a turnaround story with a new CEO and a favorable valuation at 11 times earnings with a 5% dividend yield [19] - Chipotle has announced an increase in its buyback program, with its stock trading at 29 times forward earnings, below its historical average of 46 times [20] Earnings Expectations - Earnings have been revised higher, with expectations for continued growth driven by a strong consumer base, which constitutes 70% of the economy [10][11] - The fourth quarter is anticipated to be strong, with earnings expected to lead market performance [12]

Core Insights - The U.S. manufacturing new orders saw a significant month-on-month decline of 4.8% in June, reversing the strong rebound from May driven by a surge in aircraft orders [1] - Despite the June drop, overall orders increased by 3.8% compared to the same period last year [1] - The decline in orders was primarily attributed to a sharp decrease in commercial aircraft orders, which are high-value capital goods that significantly impact overall manufacturing data [1] Manufacturing Sector Performance - Manufacturing accounts for 10.2% of the U.S. GDP, but it has been facing multiple constraints leading to a weakening development trend [1] - The aggressive trade policies implemented during the Trump administration, including high tariffs on various imports, have posed greater challenges for the manufacturing sector [1] - The tariffs aimed to protect domestic industries and increase fiscal revenue, but they have also resulted in higher production costs and supply chain limitations [1] Economic Outlook - Economists generally believe that Trump's tariff strategy to "revive" manufacturing is unlikely to succeed in the short term due to labor shortages and the lengthy process of infrastructure adjustments and supply chain restructuring [2]

Core Viewpoint - President Trump's call for business graduates to focus on manufacturing rather than financial speculation contrasts sharply with his own profitable stock market activities, raising questions about his true intentions and the impact on U.S. manufacturing revival [1][6]. Group 1: Stock Market Activities - Trump's stock market actions have been controversial, with a notable post on social media suggesting it was a good time to buy, followed by a significant market rally after he announced a pause on tariffs, leading to a nearly 3000-point increase in the Dow [3]. - Following these announcements, Trump's stake in the Trump Media Technology Group saw a stock price increase of 22.67%, resulting in a personal wealth increase of $415 million in one day [3]. - Videos showed Trump boasting about the wealth gained by wealthy individuals in the stock market, further fueling speculation about potential market manipulation and insider trading [4]. Group 2: Manufacturing Advocacy - Trump has consistently pushed for the revival of U.S. manufacturing through various policy measures, including trade protectionism and increased tariffs, aiming to bring manufacturing back to the U.S. [6]. - He believes that business graduates, equipped with knowledge and skills, can optimize production processes and create jobs by entering the manufacturing sector [6]. - However, the contradiction between his stock market gains and his advocacy for manufacturing raises doubts about his sincerity and could hinder public trust in policies aimed at revitalizing the manufacturing industry [6][7].