Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ☆☆☆ [1] - Aluminum: ななな [1] - Zinc: ☆☆☆ [1] - Lead and Stainless Steel: ☆☆ [1] - Alumina: なな☆ [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ☆☆☆ [1] - Polysilicon: なな女 [1] - Industrial Silicon: ななな [1] Core Views - The U.S. $12 billion strategic metal stockpiling plan and the non-ferrous metals industry association's suggestion of commercial interest - subsidized stockpiling of copper and copper concentrates have led to rapid re - allocation in the copper market after the shock [1]. - The short - term macro sentiment for aluminum is fluctuating, the fundamentals are weak, and there is adjustment pressure around the Spring Festival. The supply of zinc is expected to decline in February, and it is in a state of weak supply and demand with seasonal inventory pressure during the Spring Festival, but the cost support is strong [2]. - The inclusion of recycled aluminum in delivery has led to a decline in Shanghai aluminum. The demand for aluminum ingots is insufficient, but there is strong support at the 16,600 yuan/ton level [3]. - The downstream of stainless steel is cautious in purchasing, and the market sentiment is panicked [5]. - The impact of the Myanmar earthquake on tin supply is expected to be limited, and the domestic tin concentrate processing fee has been raised [6]. - The price of lithium carbonate is in high - level shock with high short - term uncertainty [6]. - The price of polysilicon continues to rise, with cost support and a de - stocking expectation in February [6]. - The output of industrial silicon has declined significantly in February, and there is a slight de - stocking expectation, with a weak short - term sentiment [7]. Summary by Metal Copper - On Wednesday, Shanghai copper increased positions at the end of the session and continued the upward trend. The U.S. strategic metal stockpiling plan and the industry association's suggestion of commercial interest - subsidized stockpiling attracted rapid re - allocation in the copper market. Short - term attention should be paid to the previous platform of 105,000 yuan, and the enthusiasm of mid - and downstream price - setting may weaken again. Attention should be paid to inter - period reverse arbitrage [1]. Aluminum - Shanghai aluminum fluctuated narrowly. The spot premiums and discounts in East China, Central China, and Foshan were - 210 yuan, - 330 yuan, and - 195 yuan respectively, and the aluminum rod processing fee was negative. The short - term macro sentiment is fluctuating, the fundamentals are weak, and there is adjustment pressure around the Spring Festival. The inclusion of recycled aluminum in delivery has led to a decline in Shanghai aluminum, and there is strong support at the 16,600 yuan/ton level [2][3]. Zinc - As Shanghai zinc fell from a high level, the short - selling sentiment in the market was released to some extent, but the capital congestion was still high, and the long - short game at high levels is expected to continue. The downstream consumption is weak, and the supply of zinc ingots is expected to decline by 50,000 tons in February. It is in a state of weak supply and demand, with seasonal inventory pressure during the Spring Festival. However, the TC in the first quarter is at a low level, and the cost support is strong. Shanghai zinc is expected to fluctuate at a high level [2]. Lead and Stainless Steel - Shanghai lead had a weak rebound, and the market trading was active. The downstream of stainless steel was cautious in purchasing, and the actual transactions were weak. The inventory of steel mills was still at a low level, and the spot price was supported to run strongly. The market sentiment was panicked, and caution was advised [5]. Tin - Shanghai tin decreased positions and fluctuated during the day. The impact of the Myanmar earthquake on tin supply is expected to be limited. The domestic tin concentrate processing fee has been raised. After the option strategy is settled, it is advisable to wait and see [6]. Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate rebounded and fluctuated. The exchange policy affected market participation. The high - level price of lithium carbonate may have led to the liquidation of a large number of hedging positions. The strong spot and long - position speculative positions are dominant, and the position structure is fragile. The overall de - stocking speed of the market has slowed down, and the lithium carbonate futures price is in high - level shock with high short - term uncertainty [6]. Polysilicon - The price of polysilicon continued to rise. The industry has an expectation of cost increase, which will form support for the price. Affected by the production cuts of leading enterprises, the output of polysilicon in February is expected to be revised down to less than 80,000 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of more than 20,000 tons. There is a de - stocking expectation in February. The cost of auxiliary materials has fluctuated, and the downstream production increase rhythm of photovoltaics is expected to be relatively cautious. The spot price of N - type re -投料 is stable at 53,500 yuan/ton, and the short - term sentiment is strong. Attention should be paid to the spot transaction price [6]. Industrial Silicon - In February, the production cuts of leading enterprises in Xinjiang were implemented, and combined with the production reduction in Inner Mongolia and Sichuan in January, the output of industrial silicon in February decreased significantly month - on - month. The downstream demand weakened as a whole. There is a slight de - stocking expectation in February. The previous 9,000 yuan/ton level on the disk was under pressure, and the short - term sentiment was weak. It is expected to maintain a shock, and attention should be paid to the change of inventory data tomorrow [7].

Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metal sector is experiencing a comprehensive pullback, with significant declines in companies such as China Tungsten High-Tech and Xiamen Tungsten, while the non-ferrous mining ETF has seen a net inflow of over 100 million in the past six trading days, indicating potential investment opportunities despite current market volatility [1][14]. Group 1: Market Performance - The non-ferrous mining ETF (159690) has seen a decline of 3.19%, but has attracted over 4 million in funds during the downturn, with a total net inflow exceeding 1 billion in the last six trading days [1]. - The non-ferrous mining index has achieved a remarkable one-year growth of 124.26%, outperforming mainstream non-ferrous indices [3][4]. - Historical performance shows the non-ferrous mining index has a ten-year cumulative increase of 172.62% and an annualized return of 10.87%, indicating strong resilience compared to other indices [10][12]. Group 2: Strategic Insights - China International Capital Corporation (CICC) suggests that the gold price may stabilize and rise, presenting a reallocation opportunity, while the silver market faces challenges due to uneven regional inventories and pending tariff policies [17][18]. - Ever since 2025, the emphasis on "critical mineral resources" has significantly increased in Europe and the U.S., with procurement plans from the U.S. and Australia indicating that cobalt, tantalum, antimony, and gallium will account for notable percentages of global production in 2024 [18][19]. - Investment opportunities are highlighted in strategic metals storage, particularly those with supply chain risks concentrated in specific regions, such as copper, lithium, and nickel, as well as metals essential for energy transition and AI applications [18][19].

Core Viewpoint - The report from Everbright Securities highlights the increasing importance of strategic metals (copper, aluminum, cobalt, nickel, tin, antimony, tungsten, rare earths) due to supply disruptions and the limitations in production capacity in China and abroad [1][2]. Group 1: Strategic Metal Storage Initiatives - Australia announced a strategic reserve plan for critical minerals worth AUD 1.2 billion, with AUD 185 million allocated for necessary mineral reserves, prioritizing antimony, gallium, and rare earths [2] - The European Commission approved a resource revival action plan to raise EUR 3 billion for supply chain strategies, establishing a platform to support critical material reserves [2] - The U.S. Defense Logistics Agency (DLA) plans to procure USD 500 million in cobalt, USD 245 million in antimony, USD 100 million in tantalum, and USD 45 million in scandium [2] Group 2: Investment Opportunities in Strategic Metals - The focus on strategic metal storage in the U.S. and Australia presents significant investment opportunities, particularly in metals with concentrated supply chains and security risks, such as cobalt from the Democratic Republic of Congo and lithium from South America [3] - The rapid development of AI and energy transition is expected to drive demand for copper, aluminum, and tin, although supply constraints exist for these metals [4] - Military-related metals like tungsten, antimony, and rare earths are facing tightening supply, with production declines attributed to lower resource grades and regulatory controls [5] Group 3: Supply Concentration and Constraints - Copper, lithium, cobalt, and nickel supply is highly concentrated in South America, the Democratic Republic of Congo, and Indonesia, with Chile and Peru accounting for 35% of global copper production and the Democratic Republic of Congo producing 76% of global cobalt [4] - The rapid growth of AI is expected to significantly increase demand for copper, aluminum, and tin, but supply for these metals is constrained [4] - Tungsten, antimony, and rare earths are critical for military applications, but their production has decreased due to resource management practices and regulatory measures [5] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - For copper, recommended companies include Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Western Mining [5] - For aluminum, Yunnan Aluminum is recommended, with China Aluminum as a focus [5] - For cobalt and nickel, Huayou Cobalt is recommended, with attention to Liqin Resources and Shengtun Mining [5] - For tungsten, focus on China Tungsten High-tech [5] - For tin, Xiyang Tin Industry is recommended, with interest in Xingye Silver Tin [5] - For antimony, Huaxi Nonferrous is highlighted, and for rare earths, Northern Rare Earth is recommended with a focus on China Rare Earth [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the non-ferrous metals sector [5]. Core Insights - The report highlights the renewed focus on strategic metal reserves by countries like Australia, the EU, and the US, indicating a significant increase in the importance of "critical mineral resources" since 2025 [2][3]. - The strategic metal storage initiatives are expected to create investment opportunities, particularly in metals with concentrated supply chains and those essential for AI and energy transition [2][3]. Summary by Sections Strategic Metal Storage Initiatives - Australia announced a AUD 1.2 billion strategic reserve plan for critical minerals, prioritizing antimony, gallium, and rare earths [1]. - The EU plans to raise EUR 3 billion for a supply chain strategy, establishing a platform for critical materials [1]. - The US plans to procure USD 500 million of cobalt, USD 245 million of antimony, USD 100 million of tantalum, and USD 45 million of scandium [1]. Investment Opportunities - The report identifies investment opportunities in metals with high supply concentration and security risks, such as cobalt from the Democratic Republic of Congo, copper and lithium from South America, and nickel from Indonesia [2]. - It emphasizes the demand for copper, aluminum, and tin driven by AI and energy transition, while noting supply constraints for these metals [3]. - Military-related metals like tungsten, antimony, and rare earths are highlighted as having tight supply, with significant applications in defense [3]. Company Recommendations - The report recommends several companies based on their strategic positioning in the metals market: - Copper: Zijin Mining, Western Mining, and Luoyang Molybdenum [4]. - Aluminum: Yunnan Aluminum and China Aluminum [4]. - Cobalt and Nickel: Huayou Cobalt and others [4]. - Tungsten: China Tungsten High-Tech [4]. - Tin: Xiyang Tin and others [4]. - Antimony: Huaxi Nonferrous [4]. - Rare Earths: Northern Rare Earth and others [4].