这一人事变动及其背后的政策协调预期，正在重塑市场对2025年货币政策路径的判断。投资者需要重新 评估传统的美联储独立性框架，以及财政与货币政策前所未有的配合可能带来的市场影响。 市场共识与鲍威尔的"跛脚鸭"困境 Peter Tchir指出，如果用最简洁的语言总结本周美联储会议，那就是：市场为降息定价95%的概率，美 联储不会让市场失望。但关键在于，鲍威尔作为即将离任的主席，其鹰派发言的分量将大打折扣。 这与以往美联储决议日形成鲜明对比。通常情况下，主席的新闻发布会是市场关注的重点，其对未来政 策路径的暗示往往引发剧烈市场波动。但当前情况下，投资者更关心的是谁将接替鲍威尔，以及新主席 将带来怎样的政策转向。 本周美联储议息会议的市场预期正在形成一套清晰的"剧本"。 周一，根据Academy Securities策略师Peter Tchir的分析，市场为12月降息定价的概率高达95%，但鲍威 尔的鹰派表态或许已不再重要——作为即将成为"跛脚鸭"的美联储主席，他的言论对新年后的政策影响 力正在减弱。 野村表示，如果市场"老实"地对"鹰派降息"做出反应，这就是一场流动性的逆转：债券和股票将因获利 回吐而走弱，美元则会 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views - China has entered a low - interest era with high - volatility in the bond market. By referring to the US during the QE period (2008 - 2014) after the sub - prime crisis, the report finds that during the US interest rate rebound intervals, the market trades on the marginal improvement of the economic fundamentals, the implementation of fiscal stimulus bills, and the expectation of marginal tightening of monetary policy. In contrast, China's budget this year is relatively positive, but the fiscal strength still lags behind that of the overseas QE stage. The bond market may fluctuate, but there is no possibility of a systematic bear market. It is recommended to participate with a configuration mindset and seize high - interest points [1][2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 QE Aftermath: How Did US Treasury Bonds Perform? 3.1.1 US Four - Stage QE Policy (2008 - 2014) - After the sub - prime crisis, the Fed initiated the first round of quantitative easing through various means such as expanding long - term securities assets and creating new monetary policy tools. Subsequently, it restarted or adjusted the QE rhythm multiple times and used operations like "Operation Twist" to regulate economic recovery. The QE policy can be divided into six stages: QE1 (2008.11 - 2009.3), continued balance - sheet expansion (2009.3 - 2010.4), QE2 (2010.11 - 2011.6), two rounds of "Operation Twist" (2011.9 - 2012.9), QE3 and QE4 (2012.9 - 2013.12), and QE Taper (2014.1 - 2014.10). Through QE1, the Fed injected $1.725 trillion of liquidity into the market [6][9][10] 3.1.2 Post - QE US Treasury Bonds: Frequent Rebounds - After QE, US Treasury bond yields did not decline unilaterally but fluctuated frequently. A review of rebounds of over 30bp in the 10 - year Treasury bond yields usually shows that they are caused by factors such as significant fiscal policy expansion, the implementation of large - scale stimulus bills, exogenous shocks from risk events, marginal improvement in fundamentals, and marginal tightening of monetary policy. During the interest rate rebound intervals, speculative activities in the market often increase [18] 3.2 What Were the Sources of Fluctuations in US Treasury Bonds in the Low - Interest Era? 3.2.1 200812 - 200902: Rescue Plans Boosted Market Expectations and Fundamentals Improved Temporarily - After the Fed launched the first round of QE in November 2008, bond market yields dropped rapidly. Then, Bush's rescue plan for the auto industry, the issuance expectation of Treasury bonds, and profit - taking sentiment jointly drove the 10 - year Treasury bond yields to rebound. Additionally, improvements in the credit environment, inflation expectations, and key economic data such as employment and PMI also pushed up the yields [23][27] 3.2.2 200902: An Unconventional Stimulus Bill Was Enacted and Fundamentals Repaired Marginally - The 10 - year Treasury bond yields rose from 2.64% on February 17th to 3.02% on February 27th, an increase of 38bp. Obama's signing of the "American Recovery and Reinvestment Act" increased the expectation of Treasury bond issuance, and the repair of some fundamental data such as PPI, CPI, and real estate credit also pushed up the yields. However, the further downward revision of the Q4 2008 GDP growth terminated the yield rebound [28] 3.2.3 200903 - 200905: Policies to Stabilize Growth and Mitigate Risks Were Strengthened and Fundamentals Improved in Expectation - The 10 - year Treasury bond yields rose from 2.51% on March 18th to 3.29% on May 7th, an increase of 78bp. The Fed's intensified QE, the implementation of measures to dispose of non - performing financial assets, and financial regulatory reforms boosted market confidence. Improvements in fundamental indicators such as inflation, new housing starts, and manufacturing PMI supported the rise in inflation expectations. Overseas, the global QE wave and the issuance of IMF bonds also affected the US Treasury bond market [29][30][31] 3.2.4 200905 - 200906: Housing Protection and Stronger Regulations Were Upgraded and Fundamentals Hit Bottom and Rebounded - The 10 - year Treasury bond yields rose from 3.10% on May 14th to 3.98% on June 10th, an increase of 88bp. After the Fed's stress - test results were announced, the stock market took profit, and the bond market yields initially declined. Then, Obama's signing of the housing assistance bill and the strengthening of financial regulations boosted market confidence. Improvements in fundamental data such as inflation and per - capita disposable income pushed up long - term yields. Overseas, the intention of many countries to subscribe to IMF bonds squeezed the demand for US Treasury bonds [36][37] 3.2.5 200907: Record Deficit and Improving Fundamentals - The 10 - year Treasury bond yields rose from 3.32% on July 10th to 3.75% on July 27th, an increase of 43bp. The "Cash for Clunkers" program boosted auto consumption, and General Motors'资产重组 and government control stabilized market confidence. The record - high fiscal deficit increased bond supply and raised concerns about the US dollar, quickly pushing up bond market yields. The implementation of the financial regulatory reform bill and the rebound of multiple fundamental indicators also contributed to the yield increase [38][39][40] 3.2.6 200910: Economic Repair and Signals of Monetary Tightening, with Incremental Policies Added - The 10 - year Treasury bond yields rose from 3.21% on October 1st to 3.59% on October 26th, an increase of 38bp. The Fed signaled the start of economic repair and the gradual exit of monetary easing. The US government's innovation incentive strategy and positive signals from key economic data such as growth, inflation, and manufacturing drove up inflation expectations. Overseas, the global economic recovery and overseas interest - rate hikes reduced the demand for safe - haven assets [41][42][44] 3.2.7 200911 - 200912: Incremental Policies Continued to Be Strengthened and Fundamentals Trended Upward - The 10 - year Treasury bond yields rose from 3.21% on November 30th to 3.85% on December 31st, an increase of 64bp. Obama's signing of the assistance bill for workers, homeowners, and businesses and the plan to increase troops in Afghanistan increased fiscal expenditure pressure. Fundamental data such as GDP, PCE, and employment improved, raising inflation expectations. Overseas, Australia's interest - rate hike and the mitigation of the Dubai debt crisis also affected the US Treasury bond market [48][49] 3.2.8 201003 - 201004: Exit from QE, Implementation of Multiple Reforms, and Rapid Repair of Fundamentals - The 10 - year Treasury bond yields rose from 3.61% on March 4th to 4.01% on April 5th, an increase of 40bp. The approaching exit of the first round of QE, the acceleration of financial regulatory legislation, and the signing of the healthcare reform bill affected the market. Improvements in fundamental data such as employment, GDP, and PCE pushed up the yields [50][52] 3.2.9 201008 - 201009: Policies Signaled Economic Stabilization and Fundamentals Stabilized - The 10 - year Treasury bond yields rose from 2.47% on August 31st to 2.81% on September 10th, an increase of 34bp. The Fed and the US government released signals to stabilize the economy, boosting market expectations. Some fundamental data such as GDP and unemployment claims showed positive signs, and the stock index and crude oil prices temporarily stopped falling and rebounded. However, the Fed's褐皮书 indicated a slowdown in economic growth, and the yields returned to a downward - trending oscillation [55][56][61] 3.2.10 201011 - 201012: QE2 + Tax - Cut and Employment Bills, with Improved Fundamentals - The 10 - year Treasury bond yields rose from 2.53% on November 4th to 3.53% on December 15th, an increase of 100bp. The Fed's restart of QE and the release of signals for broad fiscal policies increased the expectation of Treasury bond issuance. Improvements in fundamental data such as employment, PPI, CPI, and GDP raised inflation expectations [63][64] 3.2.11 201012 - 201102: Firm Commitment to QE and Strong Fundamentals - The 10 - year Treasury bond yields rose from 3.30% on December 31st to 3.70% on February 10th, an increase of 40bp. The Fed's reaffirmation of the QE policy stabilized market confidence and drove up inflation expectations. The improvement of data in areas such as prices, production, and consumption continued. Overseas, the issuance of European bonds alleviated market panic [65][66] 3.2.12 201103 - 201104: Intensified Expectation of Tightening and Improved Fundamentals - The 10 - year Treasury bond yields rose from 3.22% on March 16th to 3.59% on April 11th, an increase of 37bp. Inflation indicators and fundamental data such as employment and retail sales improved. Statements from Fed officials, the sale of mortgage - backed securities, and Bill Gross's short - selling of US Treasury bonds increased the upward pressure on yields. The US debt - ceiling issue also worried the market. Overseas, factors such as the Japanese nuclear leak, China's policy shift, the Middle - East situation, and the ECB's interest - rate hike affected the US Treasury bond market [67][68][70] 3.2.13 201109 - 201110: Implementation of OT Operation, Boosted Policy Expectations, and Improved Fundamentals - The 10 - year Treasury bond yields rose from 1.72% on September 22nd to 2.26% on October 14th, an increase of 54bp. The implementation of the "Operation Twist" and the disappointment of QE3 expectations led to a rise in yields. The operation was questioned, and it was seen as paving the way for QE3, raising economic expectations. Fundamental indicators such as GDP, PCE, and employment improved significantly. Overseas, the global interest - rate cut wave increased the expectation of QE in the US [72][73][79] 3.2.14 201202 - 201203: Economic Repair and Rising Expectation of Monetary Tightening - The 10 - year Treasury bond yields rose from 1.98% on February 29th to 2.39% on March 19th, an increase of 41bp. The Fed's indication of a mild economic recovery and the results of the bank stress - test boosted market confidence. Improvements in fundamental data such as economic activity, inflation, and employment increased risk appetite [80][81][82] 3.2.15 201207 - 201208: Prominent Structural Economic Problems and the Fed's Strengthened Expectation of QE - The 10 - year Treasury bond yields rose from 1.43% on July 25th to 1.83% on August 16th, an increase of 40bp. The economy showed structural problems in growth, employment, manufacturing, consumption, and real estate. The Fed's statements strengthened the expectation of QE, increasing market risk appetite. Overseas, new developments in the European debt crisis and the global interest - rate cut wave affected the US Treasury bond market [83][84][85] 3.2.16 201208 - 201209: Declining Fundamentals and Rising Expectation of QE3 - The 10 - year Treasury bond yields rose from 1.57% on August 31st to 1.88% on September 14th, an increase of 31bp. Bernanke's speech hinted at QE, boosting market expectations. Declining inflation and poor employment performance supported the expectation of QE3. The Fed officially launched the third round of QE on September 13th, ending the yield rebound [86][87][88]

Core Viewpoint - The current anxiety in the U.S. capital markets is primarily due to soaring long-term government borrowing rates, making it difficult to stabilize the stock market, and traditional monetary and fiscal tightening may hinder economic growth and worsen tax revenue issues [1][2] Group 1: Market Conditions - The concept of the "Central Bank Put" has been prevalent among stock investors for decades, referring to the Federal Reserve's actions to stimulate the economy and provide a safety net for the stock market [1] - The expectation that the Federal Reserve will intervene to prevent significant market downturns has historically led to excessive risk-taking, as evidenced before the 2007-2008 financial crisis [1][2] - The current market is signaling caution regarding the debt expansion model, particularly in the performance of long-term government bonds [2] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The U.S. economy is currently growing at over 3%, with ample credit and a very loose financial environment, raising concerns about the potential impact of large-scale monetary easing as requested by the Trump administration [10] - The market anticipates an average inflation rate of 2.5% over the next decade, which could increase risk premiums in the U.S. bond market [10] Group 3: Policy Implications - The rising debt levels are only part of the problem; the real concern is the high inflation rate, which is significantly above target levels, and the perceived political influence on the Federal Reserve's ability to manage inflation [8][10] - A dual approach is suggested to address the current challenges: pressuring the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates while restructuring government debt to rely more on short-term bonds [14] - Even if such measures are successfully implemented, they may not alleviate core market concerns regarding sustainable inflation levels, which could continue to exert upward pressure on long-term government bond yields [14]