在投资的世界里，有一种资产，它不靠企业盈利，也不受市场风口驱动，却一直被全球富豪和专业投资 者视为"硬通货"。 那就是——黄金。 很多人把黄金当作收藏品，甚至觉得它只是贵金属，没有实际收益。 但真正懂投资的人知道：黄金价格的波动，往往比股市、楼市更直接地反映经济状况，它是经济的晴雨 表。 黄金价格上涨，意味着经济风险增加 当国际金价持续上涨，通常伴随以下现象： 1. 通货膨胀加剧 纸币贬值，购买力下降，人们对货币失去信心，于是纷纷买入黄金保值。 2. 金融市场动荡 股市、债市不稳，投资者寻求避险资产，黄金因此受益。 3. 地缘政治紧张 战争、制裁、国际冲突等事件，会引发全球经济不确定性，黄金作为全球公认的避险资产，需求 上升，价格上涨。 也就是说，当金价上涨时，经济大环境可能存在风险信号。 投资者更愿意投入股市、房地产等高风险资产，黄金需求下降。 2. 货币信心恢复 通货膨胀得到控制，货币购买力稳定，投资者对纸币信心增强。 3. 全球政治风险下降 国际局势平稳，金融市场流动性充足，黄金失去避险优势。 聪明的投资者会观察这一点，提前调整投资策略，比如降低高风险资产的比例，增加黄金、债券等稳健 配置。 黄金价格下 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article discusses the current high volatility in gold prices and the potential continuation of its upward trend, which has garnered significant attention [1] - The article highlights that crude oil has reached its upward target zone, raising questions about the feasibility of entering long positions [1] - There is an emphasis on the need for updated strategies regarding gold trading following its recent price increases [1]

Core Viewpoint - The performance of the liquor sector, traditionally seen as a stable investment, has recently caused significant pressure for fund managers, leading to a reevaluation of strategies [1][3]. Group 1: Fund Manager's Performance - Xiao Nan, a senior fund manager at E Fund, manages over 30 billion yuan and has faced challenges with the liquor sector impacting fund performance [1][2]. - The fund managed by Xiao Nan has seen a decline of 6.29% this year, while the average of similar funds has increased by 15.37% [2][4]. - Over the past year, two years, and three years, the fund has underperformed the market, indicating difficulties in both bullish and bearish market conditions [2][4]. Group 2: Investment Strategy Adjustments - In the second quarter report, Xiao Nan acknowledged the negative impact of increasing exposure to liquor stocks on fund performance, admitting a cognitive bias towards high-quality assets [3]. - The report highlighted that leading liquor companies have compromised long-term brand value for short-term performance, resulting in significant price declines [3]. - To improve fund performance, Xiao Nan reduced holdings in low-end liquor and beer stocks while increasing allocations in agriculture and beverage sectors, indicating a shift towards more defensive and fundamentally supported investments [3].

上证报中国证券网讯（记者 王彭）站在当下时点，宏利投资表示，当前全球形势已经发生变化，展望 下半年，其对不同区域的投资策略也相应地发生了调整。 宏利投资表示，日本经济的产出缺口近期有所收窄，但全球需求疲软或致2025年下半年增速放缓。工资 增长推高通胀，日本央行或于下半年加息，但政府债务压制长期债券收益率。日元升值或短期压制股 市，但企业盈利与资本开支改善利好其中长期表现。 来源：上海证券报·中国证券网 "我们仍看好欧元未来的上行潜力，主要支撑因素包括欧美经济增长差距缩小，以及众多投资者寻求美 元替代货币。对于欧元区股票，鉴于市场结构性前景改善及相对估值具有吸引力，我们也持审慎乐观态 度。"宏利投资称。 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the dramatic evolution of the US tariff policy towards China in 2025, highlighting a shift from a dual-track system of "benchmark tariffs + differentiated rates" to a full upgrade to 125% "reciprocal tariffs" and selective exemptions for semiconductor-related products [1] - The article emphasizes that the fluctuations in tariff policy reflect the US's "maximum pressure" strategy and the deep-seated contradictions within its domestic political and economic landscape, indicating a critical turning point in Sino-US economic relations [1] - The adjustments in policy and market dynamics are profoundly impacting the global economic landscape, suggesting a need for strategic responses from China [1] Group 2 - The upcoming public lecture will explore economic trends and the construction of financial defense systems under the context of Sino-US competition, led by Professor Li Nan [2] - The agenda includes a discussion on the underlying logic of tariff negotiations, focusing on how US inflation, debt, and electoral politics drive policy fluctuations, and how China can enhance resilience through countermeasures and internal circulation [4] - The lecture will also analyze paths for industrial breakthroughs in key sectors such as semiconductors and new energy, as well as the feasibility of transshipment trade in the face of technological blockades [4] Group 3 - The investment strategy adjustments will focus on identifying long-term value anchors amid A-share market volatility and how companies can optimize their global layout by leveraging policy windows [4] - Professor Li Nan's expertise includes financial economics, econometrics, and macro asset pricing, with a focus on economic policy and investment decisions under uncertainty [6] - The collaboration with Nobel laureate Lars Peter Hansen and John C. Heaton on long-run risk measurement highlights the academic credibility and research depth of Professor Li Nan [6]