12月11日随着2025年中央经济工作会议的闭幕，"十五五"开局在即。 "十五五"规划建议提出，在"十五五"时期的基础上再奋斗五年，到2035年，中国人均GDP达到中等发达 国家水平。当年轻人拿捏消费"可以买贵的，不能买贵了"，当房地产"造富"神话去魅……下一个五年， 如何撬动中国经济增长新支点？如何持续推进金融改革、实现"金融强国"战略目标？ "当前，中国经济发展面临着两个至关重要的时代背景，这是我们理解一切经济政策与市场变革的逻辑 起点。"中国人民大学国家金融研究院院长、中国资本市场研究院院长、国家一级教授吴晓求就此接受 新京报贝壳财经记者专访，深入解读了"十五五"时期中国经济、金融与资本市场的发展路径。 中国人民大学国家金融研究院院长、中国资本 市场研究院院长、国家一级教授吴晓求（受访者提供） 在"过剩经济"条件下，消费是维持经济动态平衡的关键力量 新京报贝壳财经：在您看来，与"十四五"时期相比，"十五五"这一阶段我国经济将有哪些显著特点？ 吴晓求：研判"十五五"时期经济发展路径，不能仅局限于短期的政策解读，必须将其置于宏大的历史维 度与时代背景中进行深度的学理审视。当前中国面临两个关键时代背景：一是全 ...

Core Viewpoint - The "15th Five-Year Plan" aims for China to achieve a per capita GDP level of a moderately developed country by 2035, emphasizing the need for new economic growth drivers and financial reforms to realize the "financial power" strategy [2] Economic Development Characteristics - The "15th Five-Year" period will be characterized by a shift from a "shortage economy" to an "over-supply economy," necessitating a fundamental change in governance logic and economic policy [5][6] - The global technological revolution presents a historical opportunity for China, with a strong foundation in artificial intelligence, big data, and new energy [4] Consumption Dynamics - In an "over-supply economy," consumption is crucial for maintaining economic balance, shifting from being viewed as waste to a key driver of growth [6][7] - The expansion of consumption is constrained by income, wealth, and social security, requiring institutional restructuring in these areas [7][8] Wealth Creation and Employment - Optimizing the business environment and protecting the rights of various market entities, including state-owned and private enterprises, is essential for job creation and income growth [7] - Approximately 60% to 70% of household wealth is concentrated in real estate, which poses risks to consumption when property prices decline [8] Social Security and Savings - High savings rates among Chinese residents reflect cultural tendencies and a precautionary approach, which can suppress effective demand in an "over-supply economy" [9] - A robust social security system is necessary to alleviate residents' concerns and release locked purchasing power [9] Financial System Reform - The core task of financial reform during the "15th Five-Year" period is to adapt the financial system to the transition from a shortage to an over-supply economy [10] - There is a need for innovation in financial products to meet the diverse financing needs of enterprises at different life stages [11] Capital Market Development - The capital market's role is evolving from merely a financing tool to a platform for wealth management and risk-sharing [17][18] - Enhancing the quality of listed companies and encouraging high-growth firms to go public is vital for the capital market's long-term value [18] Liquidity and Market Activity - Maintaining adequate liquidity is essential for the capital market's price discovery function and investor satisfaction [19] - A daily trading volume of around 2 trillion yuan should be considered a normal state of market maturity [19] Legal and Regulatory Framework - Strengthening legal frameworks to ensure market transparency and protect investors is critical for rebuilding trust in the capital market [20] - Severe penalties for fraudulent activities are necessary to establish a market environment based on investor protection and contractual integrity [20]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese economy is undergoing fundamental changes, transitioning from a state of scarcity to one of surplus, necessitating effective consumption expansion through various measures [1] Economic Transition - The shift from a scarcity economy to a surplus economy indicates a need for adjustments in consumption patterns and economic strategies [1] Consumption Expansion - Effective consumption expansion requires increasing residents' income levels, protecting existing wealth, and improving the social security system [1] - Adjustments in the tax and income distribution systems are essential for achieving a new supply-demand dynamic balance in the economy [1] Employment and Economic Growth - Income growth is closely tied to employment, emphasizing the importance of enhancing both the private and state-owned sectors to improve job opportunities [1] Real Estate Market Impact - The decline in real estate prices is significantly constraining consumption expansion, highlighting the need for legal protections for reasonable existing wealth [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese economy is undergoing fundamental changes, transitioning from a state of scarcity to one of surplus, which requires new strategies for managing economic expansion and consumption [1][3]. Group 1: Economic Transition - The core change in the Chinese economy is the shift from a scarcity economy to a surplus economy [1]. - There is a need to explore how to expand consumption under the current economic conditions, focusing on the underlying constraints [3]. Group 2: Consumption Expansion - To effectively expand consumption, it is essential to increase income levels, which are primarily driven by employment opportunities, particularly in the private sector [3]. - The relationship between consumption expansion and existing wealth is critical, with real estate prices currently in a downward trend, affecting 60% of household wealth and severely limiting consumption growth [3]. Group 3: Wealth Preservation - The appreciation and protection of existing wealth depend on legal safeguards and cultural recognition of its importance [3]. - The lack of emphasis on preserving existing wealth contributes to a cycle where current income alone cannot sustain living standards, highlighting the need for wealth preservation to facilitate a virtuous economic cycle [3]. Group 4: Societal Concerns - There is a prevailing sense of uncertainty among the Chinese population regarding the future, which influences savings behavior, particularly among younger generations whose income levels have not increased significantly [4]. - The elderly population tends to save their increased retirement income rather than spend it, leading to lower consumption levels [4]. Group 5: Social Security and Consumption Scenarios - Improving the social security system and adjusting fiscal spending towards public welfare is necessary for sustainable economic growth [5]. - As per capita GDP in China is projected to reach $1,400 by 2025, there will be an increasing number of high-net-worth individuals, necessitating the optimization of consumption scenarios across different social strata [5]. - Consumption upgrades should not be viewed as wasteful; rather, they are essential for driving economic growth in modern conditions [5].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese economy is undergoing a fundamental transformation from a state of scarcity to one of surplus, which has occurred in just over 40 years. This shift necessitates a reevaluation of consumption expansion strategies in the current economic context [2][4][5]. Group 1: Economic Transformation - The transition from a scarcity economy to a surplus economy is marked by rapid economic growth, with per capita GDP increasing from $150 to $13,500 over the past 40 years [4]. - All 220 sub-industries in China are currently experiencing surplus conditions, indicating a need for new management strategies to address this economic state [4]. Group 2: Consumption Expansion - To expand consumption, income levels must increase, which is heavily reliant on employment. Without sufficient employment, income growth becomes challenging [5]. - The current decline in real estate prices, which constitute 60% of household wealth, severely restricts consumption expansion. Legal protection of reasonable stock wealth is essential [6]. Group 3: Wealth and Social Security - The importance of preserving and enhancing stock wealth is emphasized, as it plays a crucial role in sustaining consumption expansion. The current societal focus on income rather than wealth preservation is problematic [6]. - There is a need for improvements in the social security system to alleviate future uncertainties and enhance consumer confidence. Adjustments in fiscal spending towards social welfare are recommended [7]. Group 4: Investment and Market Dynamics - Investment strategies should focus on iterative adjustments and industry upgrades, with a growing role for social capital in identifying future directions and managing surplus conditions [8].

Group 1 - The main theme of the discussion is that by 2025, China's economic endogenous power will gradually emerge, with an expanding consumer market and breakthroughs across the entire industrial chain serving as new growth engines [3][5] - The first subtopic focuses on more proactive economic and financial policies to stimulate growth [3] - The second subtopic addresses the restructuring of the industrial chain amid global economic and trade competition [3] - The third subtopic discusses consumption upgrades and technological innovation as leading factors for recovery [3] - The fourth subtopic highlights the opportunities for industrial development presented by the closure of the Hainan Free Trade Port [3] Group 2 - The current economic situation is characterized by a structural oversupply, which is a common phenomenon in the later stages of industrialization, and cannot be resolved merely by expanding domestic demand [6][9] - The real estate sector has historically faced oversupply issues, and this is not the first time it has encountered such challenges [9][12] - The discussion emphasizes the importance of balancing risks across the entire real estate transaction chain, rather than placing the burden solely on homebuyers [10][12] - The need for a more balanced development across cities is highlighted, suggesting that not all residents can or should live in major cities like Beijing [10][12] Group 3 - The conversation touches on the necessity of expanding the middle-income class in China to improve consumer expectations and behaviors [13][24] - The historical context of China's consumption patterns is discussed, indicating that despite high savings rates, consumer spending has not significantly increased relative to GDP [23][24] - The potential for new technologies to create new markets and balance supply and demand is emphasized, particularly in the context of low-altitude economy and AI development in Shenzhen [17][19] Group 4 - The concept of "closure" in the context of the Hainan Free Trade Port is clarified, indicating that it actually means increased openness for trade and economic stimulation [26][28] - The discussion suggests that the real estate market in Hainan will rely heavily on external demand, and without lifting purchase restrictions, local demand may remain limited [28][29]