智通财经APP获悉，中金发布研报称，近两周海外市场利率波动有所抬升，且主要体现在长端和超长端 利率层面，欧洲和日本等区域30年国债利率抬升相对更为明显，目前全球欧美日国债的30Y与2Y期期限 利差扩大到历史高位。利率波动背后反映的是市场对全球主要发达经济体债务持续扩张后带来的债务风 险以及政治风险的担忧。 中金主要观点如下： 主要发达经济体主权债务风险担忧正在抬升 全球债务杠杆潜在回落或制约未来经济增长，指向利率中枢下行 从更长的时间维度观察，全球债务杠杆扩张是过去几十年全球经济增长较快的核心推动因素。但现在全 球来看，无论是居民、企业还是政府，债务杠杆都已经不低，很难还有更大程度的扩张，该行认为这会 制约未来经济增长。利率的本质其实是由债务杠杆强度决定的，一旦债务风险担忧上升，开始制约债务 扩张，那么对应全球经济增长的速度也会下压，因此大方向来看，该行认为全球利率最终大概率仍会指 向下行。对于中国而言，过去几年财政也有不低的扩张，未来几年，这种债务扩张的担忧也一定程度上 会制约中国的债务杠杆的上升速度，财政力度也很难再明显上台阶。因此大方向来看，中国在企业和居 民融资需求偏弱的环境下，利率仍会进一步走低。 ...

Group 1 - The long-term bond yields in developed economies have significantly increased due to factors such as government debt, potential inflation, and political situations, raising concerns among investors about the uncertainties and risks associated with holding long-term bonds [1] - The yield on the US 30-year Treasury bond approached 5%, with the spread between the 2-year and 30-year Treasury yields widening to the highest level since December 2021, indicating investor worries about the sustainability of US government debt and rising inflation [1] - Japan's 30-year bond yield reached a historic high of 3.28%, while the UK's 30-year bond yield rose to 5.752%, the highest level since 1998, and Germany's 30-year bond yield climbed to 3.37%, nearing a 14-year high [1] Group 2 - The fiscal outlook of major Eurozone economies is causing investor concerns, particularly with Germany's significant investments in infrastructure and defense, which may lead to higher long-term rates in the Eurozone [2] - France's long-term borrowing costs surged to their highest level since 2011, driven by concerns over political instability affecting fiscal consolidation efforts, which could increase the country's debt [2] - Investors are selling long-term government bonds, traditionally seen as low-risk investments, and seeking other safe-haven assets, leading to a record high in international spot gold prices at $3,577 per ounce [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant decline of the US dollar, highlighting a 10.8% drop in the dollar index in the first half of the year, marking its worst performance in over fifty years [2][8]. Group 1: Dollar Performance - The dollar index fell to a low of 96.37 on July 1, 2023, the lowest since February 2022, and further decreased to 96.69 by July 3 [1] - The dollar index's 10.8% decline in the first half of 2023 is only surpassed by a 14.8% drop in the first half of 1973 [2][8]. - The recent drop in the dollar is attributed to various factors, including political pressure and economic uncertainty [3][10]. Group 2: Political Influence - President Trump has been pressuring Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell to resign, labeling him as "Too Late" and calling for further interest rate cuts [2][14]. - Trump's comments come amid ongoing discussions about the Federal Reserve's policies and their impact on the dollar [2][14]. Group 3: Economic Implications - BlackRock's report indicates that the surge in US government debt could weaken investor interest in US assets, prompting a shift towards overseas investment opportunities [5]. - The report also suggests that the dollar's status as the world's reserve currency is being reevaluated due to rising trade uncertainties and increasing government debt [6]. - The anticipated increase in US government debt, potentially adding $5 trillion over the next decade, poses a significant risk to the US's financial market position [6][7]. Group 4: Market Reactions - Analysts express concerns about a large-scale capital shift away from US assets, contrasting with previous trends of capital inflow [9]. - Recent employment data showing a decline in private sector jobs has heightened fears about the US economy, leading to increased bets on Federal Reserve rate cuts [9][12]. - Market expectations for a rate cut in September have risen significantly, with a 92.4% probability now anticipated [10].