Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic liquidity in 2025 is expected to remain loose, and more incremental policies may be introduced in Q4 to boost the real economy. The external risks are gradually easing, and the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September is increasing, which further enhances the attractiveness of RMB assets. The current market is in a resonance period of "policy bottom + capital bottom + valuation bottom", but it is necessary to adapt to the accelerating rotation of sectors and structural differentiation. The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indexes, which have more technology - growth components, are more offensive and volatile but may bring higher returns, while the SSE 50 and SSE 300, which have more dividend - blue - chip components, are more defensive with less volatility but relatively weaker price elasticity. The stock index has been rising since July and may experience short - term shock consolidation, but the probability of a medium - to - long - term upward trend is high [2][11]. - The double - coking futures are in a high - level shock trend. The current demand is in the off - season, and factors such as the expectation of coke price cuts and the low near - far - month price difference put pressure on the market, but policy expectations and the impact of over - production checks provide support [3][23]. - The palm oil price may be under pressure in the short term due to the lower - than - expected exports of Malaysian palm oil in August [3][25]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Main News Concerns of the Day - **International News**: On September 10, Wang Yi, a member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and Minister of Foreign Affairs, had a phone call with US Secretary of State Rubio. Both sides emphasized the importance of the strategic guidance of the heads - of - state diplomacy, proper management of differences, and exploration of practical cooperation to promote the stable development of Sino - US relations [4][5]. - **Domestic News**: In August 2025, the national consumer price index decreased by 0.4% year - on - year. The average consumer price from January to August decreased by 0.1% compared with the same period of the previous year [6]. - **Industry News**: Six departments including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology jointly deployed a special rectification action for network chaos in the automotive industry, aiming to strengthen the handling of network chaos such as online water armies, "black public relations", "black mouths", and "fan circles" in the automotive industry [7]. 3.2. Daily Earnings of Overseas Markets - The report provides the closing prices, price changes, and percentage changes of various overseas market varieties on September 9 and 10, 2025, including the FTSE China A50 futures, ICE Brent crude oil, London gold, etc. For example, the FTSE China A50 futures rose by 0.48% from September 9 to 10, and ICE Brent crude oil rose by 1.61% [8]. 3.3. Morning Comments on Major Varieties - **Financial Products** - **Stock Index**: The stock index is expected to have short - term shock consolidation but a high probability of medium - to - long - term upward trend. The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 are more offensive, while the SSE 50 and SSE 300 are more defensive [2][11]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bond futures prices continued to fall. With the stabilization of the equity market and the gradual tightening of funds, the stock - bond seesaw effect continued. The new regulations on fund redemptions also disturbed the market, and long - term treasury bond futures prices hit new lows and are expected to remain weak [12]. - **Energy and Chemical Products** - **Crude Oil**: SC crude oil rose 0.82% at night. Eight countries decided to increase the daily crude oil production quota by 137,000 barrels starting from October, and the 1.65 million barrels of daily production cuts may be partially or fully restored [13]. - **Methanol**: Methanol rose 0.04% at night. The coastal methanol inventory increased significantly, and the overall device operating load increased. Methanol is expected to be bullish in the short term [14]. - **Rubber**: Rubber prices are expected to fluctuate and adjust in the short term. The supply is affected by the rainy season in the main production areas, and the demand is in the off - season with uncertainties [16]. - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefins are running weakly. The supply has shrunk, and the market pressure has eased. The support from downstream inventory replenishment needs to be monitored [17]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass futures are in shock consolidation, and soda ash futures rebounded after hitting the bottom. Both are in the process of inventory digestion, and the futures prices are weak and approaching the spot prices. Attention should be paid to the autumn consumption and policy changes [18]. - **Metals** - **Precious Metals**: Precious metals are strong. The weak US economic data and the expectation of interest rate cuts by the Fed, as well as other factors, support the rise of gold. Gold and silver are expected to be strong when the interest rate cut is approaching [19]. - **Copper**: Copper prices may fluctuate within a range. The concentrate supply is tight, and the smelting output is growing, while the downstream demand has both positive and negative factors [20]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices may fluctuate weakly within a range. The smelting output is expected to increase, and the short - term supply may be in surplus [21][22]. - **Black Products** - **Double - Coking**: The double - coking futures are in a high - level shock trend, with both pressure and support factors [3][23]. - **Agricultural Products** - **Protein Meal**: Protein meal futures are expected to continue to fluctuate narrowly in the short term. The US soybean has strong support at the bottom, and the domestic raw material supply is expected to be loose [24]. - **Oils and Fats**: Palm oil prices may be under pressure in the short term due to lower - than - expected exports from Malaysia in August [3][25]. - **Sugar**: International sugar prices are expected to be weak, while the domestic sugar price is supported by high sales - to - production ratio and low inventory but is also dragged down by import pressure. Zhengzhou sugar is expected to follow the weak trend of international sugar [26]. - **Cotton**: ICE cotton prices rose slightly. The domestic cotton market is waiting for new cotton acquisition and traditional peak - season demand guidance, and Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be weak in the short term [27]. - **Shipping Index** - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The EC index is in shock and decline. The spot freight rate of European routes is in the off - season and is expected to continue to decline. The market may be more in a shock state [29].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - In 2025, domestic liquidity is expected to remain loose, and it is in a policy window period. More incremental policies may be introduced in the second half of the year to boost the real economy. External risks are gradually easing, and the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September increases, further enhancing the attractiveness of RMB assets. The current market is in a resonance period of "policy bottom + capital bottom + valuation bottom", but it is necessary to adapt to the accelerating rotation of sectors and structural differentiation. The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indexes, which have more technology - growth components, are more offensive with larger fluctuations but may bring higher returns. The SSE 50 and CSI 300, which have more dividend - blue - chip components, are more defensive with smaller fluctuations and relatively weaker price elasticity. Since July, the stock index has continued to rise with a large increase, showing signs of short - term adjustment, but the probability of the medium - to - long - term market continuation is high [2] Summary by Directory 1. Stock Index Futures Market - **IF Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IF contracts decreased, with the decline ranging from 42.80 to 53.00. The trading volume of the IF current - month contract was 120,700, and the open interest decreased by 9,043. The spread between the next - month and current - month contracts decreased [1] - **IH Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IH contracts increased, with the increase ranging from 6.60 to 10.60. The trading volume of the IH current - month contract was 53,059, and the open interest increased by 9,442. The spread between the next - month and current - month contracts remained unchanged [1] - **IC Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IC contracts decreased, with the decline ranging from 118.20 to 126.60. The trading volume of the IC current - month contract was 105,870, and the open interest increased by 11,825. The spread between the next - month and current - month contracts increased [1] - **IM Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IM contracts decreased, with the decline ranging from 118.80 to 136.40. The trading volume of the IM current - month contract was 218,061, and the open interest increased by 12,533. The spread between the next - month and current - month contracts increased [1] 2. Stock Index Spot Market - **Major Indexes**: The CSI 300 index decreased by 0.74%, the SSE 50 index increased by 0.39%, the CSI 500 index decreased by 2.09%, and the CSI 1000 index decreased by 2.50%. In terms of industries, the energy, optional consumption, major consumption, and real - estate finance sectors increased, while the raw materials, industrial, pharmaceutical, and information technology sectors decreased [1] 3. Futures - Spot Basis - The basis of IF contracts decreased, the basis of IH contracts increased, the basis of IC contracts decreased, and the basis of IM contracts decreased [1] 4. Other Domestic and Overseas Indexes - **Domestic Indexes**: The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 1.51%, the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 2.26%, the Small and Medium - Sized Board Index increased by 1.79%, and the ChiNext Index increased by 3.00% [1] - **Overseas Indexes**: The Hang Seng Index increased by 1.94%, the Nikkei 225 increased by 0.41%, the S&P 500 decreased by 0.43%, and the DAX Index decreased by 0.37% [1] 5. Macro Information - The joint working group of the Ministry of Finance and the central bank held its second meeting to discuss issues related to the bond market and pledged to promote the stable and healthy development of the bond market [2] - This year, 12 provinces have raised the minimum wage standard, with most provinces increasing the monthly minimum wage standard or the highest - grade monthly minimum wage standard by about 8% - 12% [2] - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce ruled that some US fiber - optic producers and exporters evaded anti - dumping measures, and imposed anti - dumping duties on relevant companies [2] - A Hong Kong legislator pointed out that the stablecoin regulations in Hong Kong are strict, with few licenses issued, and a license may be issued early next year. The legislative process for offline OTC will also be initiated next year [2] 6. Industry Information - By 2027, relevant departments plan to build a number of agricultural machinery verification platforms and application centers [2] - In August, the second - hand housing market in Beijing increased, the second - hand housing market in Shenzhen remained above the "boom - bust line" for six consecutive months, and the second - hand housing market in Guangzhou slowed down [2] - In August, the retail sales of new - energy passenger vehicles in China increased year - on - year and month - on - month, with a penetration rate of 55.3% [2] - Large paper mills such as Nine Dragons Paper, Shanying International, Lee & Man Paper, and Wuzhou Special Paper announced price increases in early September [2]

Economic Indicators - In August, the manufacturing PMI, non-manufacturing business activity index, and comprehensive PMI output index were 49.4%, 50.3%, and 50.5%, respectively, showing a month-on-month increase of 0.1, 0.2, and 0.3 percentage points, indicating a continued expansion in the economic climate [1] Capital Market Developments - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) held a seminar on the "14th Five-Year Plan" for the capital market, emphasizing the need for high-quality planning and implementation of the capital market to consolidate the recovery trend and enhance market attractiveness and inclusiveness [1] Precious Metals - Gold and silver prices continued to strengthen, influenced by market concerns over President Trump's attempts to challenge the independence of the Federal Reserve and expectations of a potential interest rate cut in September [2][18] - The U.S. inflation data showed a rebound, and geopolitical risks have eased, which may limit the upward movement of gold prices [18] Stock Indices - The U.S. stock indices experienced a decline, while the domestic market showed a significant increase in financing balance, indicating a potential for continued market recovery supported by loose liquidity and favorable policies [3][10] - The market is currently in a phase of "policy bottom + liquidity bottom + valuation bottom," suggesting a high probability of continued market performance, albeit with accelerated sector rotation and structural differentiation [10] Commodity Insights - The double coke futures showed weak performance, with a slight decrease in coking coal positions and stable iron water production, indicating resilient demand despite seasonal pressures [4][25] - The iron ore market remains supported by strong demand, although global shipments have recently decreased, leading to a potential supply-demand imbalance in the medium term [23] Fund Holdings - As of the end of June, the Central Huijin Investment Co. and its subsidiaries held a total of 1.28 trillion yuan in stock ETFs, marking an increase of nearly 23% compared to the end of the previous year [7]