报告日期：2025 年 9 月 11 日 申银万国期货研究所 首席点评：降息意浓，绿稀红稠 王毅同美国国务卿鲁比奥通电话。 发改委郑栅洁：努力完成全年经济社会发展目标任务，下半年不断释放内需潜力， 进一步推动科技创新和产业创新深度融合。财政部长蓝佛安：把做强国内大循环 摆到更加突出的位置，持续发力、适时加力实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，全力 支持稳就业稳外贸。中国 8 月 CPI 同比转降 0.4%、核心 CPI 增幅回升至 0.9%， PPI 同比降幅收窄至 2.9%。美国 8 月 PPI 环比负 0.1%，四个月来首次转负，同 比增速 2.6%低于预期，特朗普：没有通胀，鲍威尔必须立即大幅降息。美联储 理事库克或将参与美联储下周决议投票，法官阻止特朗普罢免，美司法部迅速上 诉。 重点品种：股指、双焦、油脂 股指：美国三大指数涨跌不一，上一交易日股指震荡反弹，通信板块领涨，电力 设备板块领跌，市场成交额 2.00 万亿元。资金方面，9 月 9 日融资余额增加 59.52 亿元至 23034.95 亿元。2025 年我们认为国内流动性延续宽松，同时处于政策窗 口期，四季度为提振实体经济可能会出台更多的增量政策， ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - In 2025, domestic liquidity is expected to remain loose, and it is in a policy window period. More incremental policies may be introduced in the second half of the year to boost the real economy. External risks are gradually easing, and the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September increases, further enhancing the attractiveness of RMB assets. The current market is in a resonance period of "policy bottom + capital bottom + valuation bottom", but it is necessary to adapt to the accelerating rotation of sectors and structural differentiation. The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indexes, which have more technology - growth components, are more offensive with larger fluctuations but may bring higher returns. The SSE 50 and CSI 300, which have more dividend - blue - chip components, are more defensive with smaller fluctuations and relatively weaker price elasticity. Since July, the stock index has continued to rise with a large increase, showing signs of short - term adjustment, but the probability of the medium - to - long - term market continuation is high [2] Summary by Directory 1. Stock Index Futures Market - **IF Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IF contracts decreased, with the decline ranging from 42.80 to 53.00. The trading volume of the IF current - month contract was 120,700, and the open interest decreased by 9,043. The spread between the next - month and current - month contracts decreased [1] - **IH Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IH contracts increased, with the increase ranging from 6.60 to 10.60. The trading volume of the IH current - month contract was 53,059, and the open interest increased by 9,442. The spread between the next - month and current - month contracts remained unchanged [1] - **IC Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IC contracts decreased, with the decline ranging from 118.20 to 126.60. The trading volume of the IC current - month contract was 105,870, and the open interest increased by 11,825. The spread between the next - month and current - month contracts increased [1] - **IM Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IM contracts decreased, with the decline ranging from 118.80 to 136.40. The trading volume of the IM current - month contract was 218,061, and the open interest increased by 12,533. The spread between the next - month and current - month contracts increased [1] 2. Stock Index Spot Market - **Major Indexes**: The CSI 300 index decreased by 0.74%, the SSE 50 index increased by 0.39%, the CSI 500 index decreased by 2.09%, and the CSI 1000 index decreased by 2.50%. In terms of industries, the energy, optional consumption, major consumption, and real - estate finance sectors increased, while the raw materials, industrial, pharmaceutical, and information technology sectors decreased [1] 3. Futures - Spot Basis - The basis of IF contracts decreased, the basis of IH contracts increased, the basis of IC contracts decreased, and the basis of IM contracts decreased [1] 4. Other Domestic and Overseas Indexes - **Domestic Indexes**: The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 1.51%, the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 2.26%, the Small and Medium - Sized Board Index increased by 1.79%, and the ChiNext Index increased by 3.00% [1] - **Overseas Indexes**: The Hang Seng Index increased by 1.94%, the Nikkei 225 increased by 0.41%, the S&P 500 decreased by 0.43%, and the DAX Index decreased by 0.37% [1] 5. Macro Information - The joint working group of the Ministry of Finance and the central bank held its second meeting to discuss issues related to the bond market and pledged to promote the stable and healthy development of the bond market [2] - This year, 12 provinces have raised the minimum wage standard, with most provinces increasing the monthly minimum wage standard or the highest - grade monthly minimum wage standard by about 8% - 12% [2] - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce ruled that some US fiber - optic producers and exporters evaded anti - dumping measures, and imposed anti - dumping duties on relevant companies [2] - A Hong Kong legislator pointed out that the stablecoin regulations in Hong Kong are strict, with few licenses issued, and a license may be issued early next year. The legislative process for offline OTC will also be initiated next year [2] 6. Industry Information - By 2027, relevant departments plan to build a number of agricultural machinery verification platforms and application centers [2] - In August, the second - hand housing market in Beijing increased, the second - hand housing market in Shenzhen remained above the "boom - bust line" for six consecutive months, and the second - hand housing market in Guangzhou slowed down [2] - In August, the retail sales of new - energy passenger vehicles in China increased year - on - year and month - on - month, with a penetration rate of 55.3% [2] - Large paper mills such as Nine Dragons Paper, Shanying International, Lee & Man Paper, and Wuzhou Special Paper announced price increases in early September [2]

Economic Indicators - In August, the manufacturing PMI, non-manufacturing business activity index, and comprehensive PMI output index were 49.4%, 50.3%, and 50.5%, respectively, showing a month-on-month increase of 0.1, 0.2, and 0.3 percentage points, indicating a continued expansion in the economic climate [1] Capital Market Developments - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) held a seminar on the "14th Five-Year Plan" for the capital market, emphasizing the need for high-quality planning and implementation of the capital market to consolidate the recovery trend and enhance market attractiveness and inclusiveness [1] Precious Metals - Gold and silver prices continued to strengthen, influenced by market concerns over President Trump's attempts to challenge the independence of the Federal Reserve and expectations of a potential interest rate cut in September [2][18] - The U.S. inflation data showed a rebound, and geopolitical risks have eased, which may limit the upward movement of gold prices [18] Stock Indices - The U.S. stock indices experienced a decline, while the domestic market showed a significant increase in financing balance, indicating a potential for continued market recovery supported by loose liquidity and favorable policies [3][10] - The market is currently in a phase of "policy bottom + liquidity bottom + valuation bottom," suggesting a high probability of continued market performance, albeit with accelerated sector rotation and structural differentiation [10] Commodity Insights - The double coke futures showed weak performance, with a slight decrease in coking coal positions and stable iron water production, indicating resilient demand despite seasonal pressures [4][25] - The iron ore market remains supported by strong demand, although global shipments have recently decreased, leading to a potential supply-demand imbalance in the medium term [23] Fund Holdings - As of the end of June, the Central Huijin Investment Co. and its subsidiaries held a total of 1.28 trillion yuan in stock ETFs, marking an increase of nearly 23% compared to the end of the previous year [7]