两位大佬的预言似乎指向一个明确的答案：五年后不买房，或许是"庆幸"而非"后悔"。这种观点并非空穴来风，其背后有着深刻的逻辑支撑。一方面，年轻 一代的婚育意愿降低，未来购房需求将会减少；另一方面，中国房地产市场长期调整的趋势已然确立，未来房价仍有挤泡沫的空间。 因此，对于刚需购房者而言，不妨理性看待当下的楼市，根据自身实际情况做出选择，切勿盲目跟风，更不要被炒房言论所裹挟。而对于那些意图通过炒房 获利的人来说，则更需保持警惕，认清市场趋势，避免投资风险。毕竟，楼市的未来，充满了不确定性，唯有谨慎前行，方能立于不败之地。 楼市风云变幻，五年后是庆幸还是后悔？两位商业巨擘早已给出答案。曾经，错过房改浪潮的人们扼腕叹息，如今，面对楼市的十字路口，人们再次陷入迷 茫：2024年不买房，五年后会是庆幸还是后悔？ 然而，盛极必衰，自2021年起，房地产市场开始进入漫长的调整期。2024年，调整的步伐明显加快。今年上半年，全国商品房销售面积为4.79万亿平方米， 同比大幅下降19%；销售额更是跌至4.71万亿元，同比暴跌25%。更有甚者，2024年7月，全国百城二手住宅平均价格已连续下跌27个月，跌至14653元/平方 米， ...

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in China is experiencing an unusual downturn despite policy easing and interest rate cuts, with national second-hand housing prices declining for 26 consecutive months, averaging 14,762 yuan per square meter in June [1]. Group 1: Housing Supply and Demand - There is a significant oversupply of housing in China, with 600 million buildings available, enough to accommodate 60 billion people, while the current population is less than 1.4 billion [1]. - The number of vacant homes has exceeded 120 million, sufficient to house 300 to 400 million people, leading to the emergence of "ghost towns" in some cities [1]. - 96% of households own at least one property, and 41.5% own more than two, indicating a saturated market with limited demand from first-time buyers [1]. Group 2: Market Conditions - New housing inventory has surpassed 9.3 million units, with 74.5 million square meters of unsold property, indicating a significant backlog in the market [3]. - Major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou are seeing record-high listings for second-hand homes, but buyer interest is dwindling, leading to increased urgency among sellers [3]. - Speculative investors have largely exited the market, leading to a decline in property values and a lack of new entrants, further complicating the market recovery [3]. Group 3: Economic Factors - In Q1 2024, individual income tax revenue dropped by 15.9%, reflecting reduced disposable income and increased financial strain on households, which diminishes the likelihood of home purchases [5]. - There has been a significant increase in household savings, with an additional 9.27 trillion yuan saved in the first half of the year, indicating a shift towards saving rather than spending [5]. - Changing consumer attitudes among younger generations have led to a preference for renting, side hustles, and investment over home ownership, further suppressing demand [5]. Group 4: Urbanization Trends - The urbanization rate in China has reached over 65%, nearing levels seen in developed countries, which limits the influx of rural populations into urban areas for home purchases [5]. - The peak of urbanization suggests that the long-term demand driver for the housing market is diminishing, impacting future growth prospects [5]. Group 5: Market Outlook - The combination of severe housing oversupply, high inventory levels, economic pressures on residents, and the end of urbanization growth indicates that the real estate market is in a deep adjustment phase with little chance of a significant rebound in the short term [7]. - Stakeholders are advised to reconsider their strategies, as properties may no longer serve as a reliable asset for wealth accumulation and could instead pose financial risks [7].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese real estate market has entered a new adjustment cycle since the relaxation of pandemic controls in 2023, driven by long-accumulated factors, with significant declines in new home transactions and a surge in second-hand home listings [1][3]. Market Trends - From March 2023, both the transaction volume and area of new homes have decreased, while the second-hand housing market has seen a dramatic increase in listings, with cities like Chengdu and Chongqing surpassing 200,000 listings and Shanghai exceeding 180,000 by the end of June [1]. - By July, the second-hand housing price index for 100 cities showed a year-on-year decline in 96 cities, indicating a widespread downturn in the market [1]. Government Response - In response to falling housing prices, local governments have implemented various "market rescue" policies, including relaxing purchase and sale restrictions in many second and third-tier cities, reducing mortgage rates below 4%, and increasing housing fund loan limits to alleviate financial pressure on first-time buyers [1]. - The introduction of the "recognize house but not loan" policy aims to stimulate demand for improved housing, although the effectiveness of these measures has been limited [1]. Economic Impact - The decline in housing prices is attributed to two main factors: the impact of the pandemic leading to reduced incomes and job losses, which have diminished purchasing power, and the ongoing decrease in property values since the second half of 2021, eroding the "wealth effect" associated with real estate [3]. - The suggestion to utilize one-third of the 15 trillion yuan in household savings to stimulate real estate purchases and related consumption has sparked controversy, as many view these savings as essential for financial security [4]. Market Sentiment - Public sentiment reflects skepticism about the real estate market's future, with a common perception that the speculative nature of real estate investment is nearing its end, as indicated by a remark from a typical consumer highlighting the end of the "hot potato" game in real estate [6]. - Experts suggest that the government's recent policies aim to prevent drastic fluctuations in the market and achieve a "soft landing," but the long-term outlook remains uncertain, with the potential for continued adjustments in the housing market [6].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic real estate market in China is experiencing a long-term adjustment, with significant declines in both sales volume and prices, prompting various government policies aimed at stabilizing the market and encouraging home purchases [1][3]. Group 1: Market Trends - In 2024, the national sales area of commercial housing is expected to decrease by 11.3% year-on-year, with sales revenue declining by 15.7% [1]. - The new residential price index in 300 cities is projected to drop by 3.2% year-on-year, while the second-hand residential price index is expected to fall by 5.1%, marking the third consecutive year of overall price decline [1]. Group 2: Government Policies - Local governments, except for core areas in first-tier cities, have largely relaxed purchase restrictions and increased the upper limit for housing provident fund loans [3]. - Banks have reduced mortgage rates to below 3% and lowered down payment ratios to 1.5% [3]. - Tax authorities have provided exemptions on deed tax and value-added tax for homebuyers [3]. Group 3: Expert Opinions - Jack Ma emphasizes that housing should be for living, not speculation, suggesting that it may be a good time for first-time buyers and those looking to upgrade their homes [3][5]. - Li Ka-shing notes that the market is returning to rationality, and decisions should be based on personal financial situations and family needs when prices reach reasonable levels [5]. Group 4: Buyer Recommendations - For first-time and upgrading homebuyers, 2025 is seen as a favorable time to purchase due to a significant average price drop of 30% since 2022 and ongoing supportive policies [6]. - Speculative buyers are advised to "continue to observe" as there remains considerable market bubble, particularly in first-tier cities like Shanghai and Shenzhen, where price-to-income ratios exceed 40 [7][8]. - Many industry insiders believe that while core areas in first-tier cities may see price increases, third and fourth-tier cities have already experienced significant declines, suggesting a more stable environment for potential buyers in those areas [8].