美联储降息对大宗商品价格或也形成一定支撑。国家金融与发展实验室特聘高级研究员、中国首席经济 学家论坛理事邵宇接受上海证券报采访时表示，美联储降息将导致美元指数下行，大宗商品价格上涨。 避险资产黄金和风险资产大宗金属、科技股的组合或具有配置价值。 固态电池板块今日震荡上行。截至9月19日上午收盘，赣锋锂业(002460.SZ)涨停，股价报52.82元，创两 年来新高，市值为1087亿元。华亚智能、厦钨新能、腾远钴业、天齐锂业、中一科技等跟涨。 消息面上，在9月19日举行的2025遂宁国际锂电产业大会上，工业和信息化部电子信息司二级巡视员吴 国纲在发言中表示，下一步，将强化锂电池技术创新引领，加快布局前瞻技术，加快固态电池、钠离子 电池、全气候电池、快充电池及关键材料的研发和产业化等。加强对锂电池企业全球化布局的指导，支 持国内企业联合出海，开拓国际市场等。 赣锋锂业2025年半年报显示，公司上半年营业收入为83.76亿元，同比下降12.65%；归母净亏损5.31亿 元，上一年同期亏损额为7.6亿元。 该公司表示，2025 年上半年，全球锂盐行业经历深度调整，受供需格局转变、锂产品市场波动的影 响，锂盐及锂电池产 ...

Group 1: Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 1.302 billion CNY, a decrease of 4.79% compared to the same period last year, primarily due to a significant decline in the city gas segment [2] - Equipment sales accounted for 583 million CNY, representing 44.74% of total revenue, with a year-on-year growth of 7.52% [2] - The city gas segment revenue was 649 million CNY, making up 49.43% of total revenue, down 18.64% year-on-year [3] - The gas operation segment generated 76.03 million CNY, contributing 5.84% to total revenue, a decline of 8.37% compared to the previous year [3] Group 2: Profitability Analysis - The company reported a net profit of 135 million CNY in H1 2025, an increase of 9.14% year-on-year, despite the revenue decline in the city gas segment [3] - The equipment sales segment contributed over 90% of the total profit, amounting to 120 million CNY [3] - The comprehensive gross margin for the equipment segment was 42.28%, an increase of 12.83 percentage points year-on-year, driven by an increase in overseas sales [3] - The city gas segment's gross margin was 5.06%, down 4.53 percentage points from the previous year due to reduced gas consumption [3] Group 3: Order and Market Outlook - As of H1 2025, the company had an order backlog of 2.442 billion CNY, with new orders signed remaining flat year-on-year [4] - Over 50% of new orders were from overseas markets, with nearly 40% of the backlog consisting of overseas orders [4] - The company aims to achieve a sales target of 2.3 billion CNY for the full year 2025, despite a slow start in new orders [4] Group 4: Strategic Initiatives - The company plans to focus on expanding its equipment sales segment and enhancing its overseas market presence, particularly in the Middle East, Central Asia, and Europe [5][6] - Efforts are being made to strengthen communication with local governments regarding gas pricing and to recover outstanding payments [4] - The company is open to new technologies and will explore investments, independent research, and external collaborations to develop new technologies [4] Group 5: Challenges and Risks - The domestic market remains challenging due to weak demand, tight funding, and intense price competition [9] - The company has already recognized a goodwill impairment of 313 million CNY for the city gas segment in the previous year, but does not anticipate further impairments in 2025 [11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the solar industry, expecting the industry index to outperform the benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 3-6 months [5][61]. Core Insights - The solar industry is experiencing a slowdown in price increases across the supply chain, with component prices currently in a negotiation phase [12]. - The report highlights that the prices of key materials such as polysilicon and silicon wafers have remained stable, while the demand for solar cells is showing signs of differentiation based on size [12][39]. - The overall market sentiment is improving due to supply-side reforms and the implementation of energy-saving measures, which are expected to benefit certain segments of the industry [12][9]. Summary by Sections 1. Price Trends in the Solar Industry - Polysilicon prices are stable, with N-type re-investment material averaging 47,200 RMB/ton, up 0.21% week-on-week, while N-type granular silicon remains unchanged at 44,300 RMB/ton [12][39]. - Silicon wafer prices are also stable, with various sizes holding steady, indicating a cautious market outlook [12][40]. - The prices of solar cells are showing a divergence based on size, with larger cells seeing price increases due to overseas demand [12][39]. - Component prices are in a negotiation phase, with upstream costs rising but limited acceptance from downstream companies due to profitability concerns [12][39]. 2. Market Performance Review - The report notes a 4.32% increase in the comprehensive index and a 1.94% increase in the electric power equipment industry index for the week [13][14]. - The top-performing stocks in the electric power equipment sector include Huaguang Huaneng (+46.75%) and Jinlihua Electric (+45.33%) [16][18]. 3. Industry Valuation Metrics - As of August 8, the industry PE (TTM) for electric power equipment stands at 26x, with a valuation percentile of 27.9% [25][30]. - The solar equipment sector has a PE (TTM) of 19x, with a valuation percentile of 19.7%, indicating a relatively lower valuation compared to other sectors [26][35].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [8] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve revenue of 13.3 billion RMB in 2024, a year-on-year decline of 23.19%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 494 million RMB, down 6.33% year-on-year [1] - The company has a differentiated competitive advantage, with expected sales growth of ternary materials and cobalt acid lithium higher than the industry average [1][3] - New technologies such as NL new structure and solid-state battery materials are anticipated to contribute to future growth [4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company reported revenue of 34.14 billion RMB, a year-on-year decline of 18.48%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.27 billion RMB, up 10.01% year-on-year [2] - For Q1 2025, revenue is projected at 29.77 billion RMB, a decrease of 9.77% quarter-on-quarter, with net profit of 1.17 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 4.84% [2] Market Position - In 2024, the company sold 46,200 tons of cobalt acid lithium, a year-on-year increase of 33.52%, significantly outperforming the market growth rate of 18.8% [3] - Ternary material sales reached 52,400 tons, up 40.03% year-on-year, while the industry average growth was only 3.6% [3] Technology and Innovation - The company has developed NL new structure cathode materials that significantly outperform traditional cobalt acid lithium and ternary materials in energy density and charge-discharge rates [4] - The company is also advancing in solid-state battery technology, achieving ton-level production of solid electrolytes and stable product performance [4] Profitability Forecast - The company has revised down its shipment and profitability assumptions for phosphate lithium materials for 2025-2026, but expects improvements in 2027 due to scale effects [5] - Projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 666.88 million RMB, 809.48 million RMB, and 953.81 million RMB respectively [5]