证券研究报 告 新疆周报（20251110-20251116） 推荐（维持） 新疆天业拟与天池能源设立合资公司 行业研究 基础化工 2025 年 11 月 17 日 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：杨晖 邮箱：yanghui@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360522050001 证券分析师：陈俊新 邮箱：chenjunxin@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360525040001 行业基本数据 相关研究报告 《新疆周报（20251027-20251102）：国家能源 集团哈密煤制油配套 1500 万吨煤矿项目获批》 2025-11-03 证监会审核华创证券投资咨询业务资格批文号：证监许可（2009）1210 号 ❑ 本周新疆指数 131.19，环比+1.29%；新疆煤化工投资指数 129.74，环比- 0.48%；新疆国企改革指数 133.26，环比+2.30%。本周涨幅前三：合金投资 （000633.SZ）上涨+20.85%，中基健康（000972.SZ）上涨+13.03%，ST 天山 （300313.SZ）上涨+11.87%。本周跌幅前三：东华科技（002140.SZ）下跌- 5.61%，特变电工（ ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1]. Core Views - The chemical and industrial sectors are operating steadily, with significant growth in overseas revenue [1]. - The company achieved a total revenue of 907.2 billion yuan in H1 2025, with a slight year-on-year decrease of 0.3%, while net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 9.3% to 31.0 billion yuan [4][6]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 1.0 yuan per 10 shares, representing a payout ratio of 19.7% [4]. Revenue Performance - In H1 2025, the company signed new contracts worth 2060.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.2%, with domestic and overseas contracts amounting to 1646.1 billion yuan and 414.8 billion yuan, respectively [5]. - The chemical engineering sector saw new contracts exceed 1600 billion yuan for the first time in H1 2025, with significant contributions from major projects [5]. Profitability and Financial Metrics - The company's gross margin improved to 9.6% in H1 2025, with a net margin of 3.7%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.2 and 0.3 percentage points, respectively [7]. - The company reported a net cash flow from operating activities of -100.3 billion yuan, with a significant improvement in Q2, where net cash inflow reached 50.6 billion yuan [7]. Future Growth Potential - The rapid development of the coal chemical industry in Xinjiang is expected to boost the company's performance, with potential market share gains in key technology areas [8]. - The company is positioned to benefit from rising chemical product prices due to its initiatives against price competition [8]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company’s net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 are maintained at 64.3 billion yuan, 68.9 billion yuan, and 73.5 billion yuan, respectively [9]. - The report provides a detailed earnings forecast, projecting revenue growth rates and profit margins for the coming years [10][11].

Investment Strategy - The report emphasizes the strategic importance of Xinjiang in the context of national policies, highlighting its transition from a peripheral region to a key player in the Belt and Road Initiative, benefiting from energy security and environmental policies [8][9] - The focus is on two main investment themes: coal chemical investments and state-owned enterprise reforms, with a strong emphasis on the development of coal chemical projects in Xinjiang [12][11] Xinjiang Index Situation - The Xinjiang Index stands at 117.47, down 0.36% week-on-week, while the Xinjiang Coal Chemical Investment Index is at 112.28, down 0.51% [15] - The top three performing companies this week include Xinjiang Jiaojian (+18.03%), Hongtong Gas (+15.80%), and ST Tianshan (+7.02%), driven by significant progress in the Duku Expressway project [15] Key Data Tracking - Key prices in Xinjiang include Q5000 mixed coal at 100 CNY/ton, Q5200 mixed coal at 197 CNY/ton, and main coking coal at 750 CNY/ton [19] - In July 2025, coal railway shipments from state-owned key coal mines reached 3.184 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.24%, while Xinjiang's raw coal production in June 2025 was 53.923 million tons, an increase of 25.53% year-on-year [19] Recent Project Developments - The report highlights the successful trial operation of the 1 million tons per year acetic acid project by Xinjiang Zhonghe Hezhong New Materials, marking it as the largest single-unit acetic acid production base globally [11] - Ongoing projects include the 800,000 tons/year coal-to-olefins project and the 2 billion cubic meters/year coal-to-gas project, with significant investments and expected production capacities [42][41] Economic Advantages of Coal Chemical Development - Xinjiang's coal chemical industry benefits from lower raw material costs compared to other regions, with a cost advantage of approximately 1,900 CNY/ton when compared to other coal sources [10] - The report notes that the development of coal chemical projects in Xinjiang is supported by improved transportation infrastructure and favorable industrial policies [9][11] State-Owned Enterprise Reforms - The report indicates that state-owned enterprises in Xinjiang are undergoing significant reforms, with a focus on business restructuring and management optimization, which is expected to enhance operational efficiency [11][12] - Recent changes in control and acquisitions among local state-owned enterprises signal an acceleration in the reform process [11]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report highlights that Donghua Technology's Q2 performance has significantly accelerated, with a remarkable 36% growth in non-recurring profit [1] - The company signed new contracts worth 5.9 billion yuan in Q2 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 42%, with design and engineering contracts contributing 1.8 billion and 5.72 billion yuan respectively, showing increases of 165% and 40% [1] - The substantial growth in high-margin, short-cycle design orders is expected to contribute to performance in the second half of the year, indicating a strong potential for future engineering contract orders [1] Group 2 - The rising domestic energy demand, coupled with increased uncertainty in overseas energy markets, underscores the importance of enhancing domestic energy self-sufficiency, with a clear trend towards accelerated investment in Xinjiang's coal chemical industry [1] - The company has a robust order backlog and is expected to benefit from the accelerated investment in Xinjiang's coal chemical sector, with projected net profits for 2025-2027 estimated at 480 million, 550 million, and 640 million yuan, respectively, each reflecting a 16% year-on-year growth [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 0.67, 0.78, and 0.91 yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with current price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 15, 13, and 11 times [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][6]. Core Views - The company has shown significant performance acceleration in Q2, with a non-recurring profit growth rate of 36%, driven by enhanced management and cost control [1]. - New signed orders in Q2 increased by 42% year-on-year, with a strong backlog of orders providing robust support for future performance [2]. - Key projects in Xinjiang's coal chemical sector are progressing, indicating potential for accelerated EPC order releases [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 4.78 billion yuan, a 9% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 240 million yuan, up 15% [1]. - The quarterly breakdown shows Q1 revenue of 2.07 billion yuan (up 13%) and Q2 revenue of 2.71 billion yuan (up 6%) [1]. - The company’s gross profit margin improved year-on-year, contributing to the faster growth of non-recurring profits [1]. Order Book and Market Position - The company signed new orders worth 5.9 billion yuan in Q2, with design and engineering contracts seeing substantial growth [2]. - The total new signed orders for H1 2025 reached 7.78 billion yuan, a 24% increase, achieving 35% of the annual target [2]. - The company has a strong order backlog of 51.33 billion yuan, which is 5.8 times the expected revenue for 2024, indicating solid future revenue support [2]. Project Developments - Significant progress has been made on key projects in Xinjiang, with total planned investments exceeding 800 billion yuan [3]. - Recent approvals and bidding activities for major projects suggest that EPC orders are likely to be released in a concentrated manner [3]. - The company is positioned to benefit as a leading player in coal chemical construction amid increasing domestic energy demands [3]. Profit Forecast - The forecasted net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 480 million yuan, 550 million yuan, and 640 million yuan respectively, each reflecting a 16% growth [4]. - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for the same years are projected to be 0.67 yuan, 0.78 yuan, and 0.91 yuan [4].

Investment Strategy - The report emphasizes the strategic importance of Xinjiang in the context of national policies, highlighting its transition from a geographical hinterland to a front-line gateway under the Belt and Road Initiative, which enhances its geopolitical advantage [7][8] - The focus is on coal chemical investment and state-owned enterprise reform as two main investment themes, with coal chemical development seen as crucial for energy security and economic stability in Xinjiang [7][11] - External conditions for coal chemical development in Xinjiang are deemed favorable, including rising coal prices and supportive industrial policies that align with resource endowments [7][8] Industry Overview - Xinjiang has established internal advantages for coal chemical development, including improved transportation infrastructure, industrial development conditions, and enhanced human resources [8][9] - The economic advantages of Xinjiang's coal chemical sector are highlighted, particularly its lower raw material costs compared to other regions, despite higher transportation costs to end markets [9][10] - The report draws parallels between the development of Xinjiang's coal chemical industry and the U.S. shale gas sector, emphasizing the need for long-term investment in technology and infrastructure to reduce energy dependence [10] Key Data Tracking - The Xinjiang index stands at 102.69, with a month-on-month increase of 1.16%, while the coal chemical investment index is at 100.88, up by 0.96% [14] - Key prices in Xinjiang include Q5000 mixed coal at 120 CNY/ton (down 14.29% from the previous week) and Q5200 mixed coal at 197 CNY/ton (down 3.90%) [19][30] - In March 2025, coal production in Xinjiang reached 51.46 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 24.13%, while coal railway shipments from state-owned key mines totaled 3.24 million tons, down 16.9% year-on-year [19][32] Company Announcements - On May 16, 2025, Guanghui Energy announced a share transfer agreement with Fude Life Insurance and Shenzhen Fude Jinrong Holdings, involving the transfer of 15.03% of its shares at a price of 6.35 CNY/share, totaling approximately 6.199 billion CNY [4][41] - The report highlights significant ongoing projects in Xinjiang's coal chemical sector, including a 1 million ton/year coal-to-oil demonstration project and various coal-to-gas and coal-to-chemical projects with substantial investments [44]

Investment Strategy - The report suggests focusing on domestic demand, essential needs, and investment-driven sectors in the short term, including civil explosives, compound fertilizers, and Xinjiang coal chemical industries [11] - In the medium term, it recommends paying attention to structural opportunities created by trade rebalancing, particularly in new materials and safety guarantees [11] - Long-term strategies should consider the demand resonance formed by global economic responses to crises, particularly in chemical blue-chip investments at the bottom of the oil price cycle [11] Industry Overview - The Huachuang Chemical Industry Index is at 78.64, down 0.94% week-on-week and down 21.50% year-on-year [12] - The industry price percentile is at 21.70% over the past 10 years, down 0.37% week-on-week, while the industry inventory percentile is at 85.19%, up 2.86% week-on-week [12] - Key price increases this week include: - Acetochlor (+20.0%) - Henry Natural Gas (+5.6%) - Urea (+5.1%) [12] Key Chemical Products - The report highlights that the prices of acetochlor, Henry natural gas, and urea have seen significant increases due to supply constraints and strong demand from downstream markets [4][12] - The report notes that the agricultural chemical sector is expected to benefit from rising prices driven by seasonal demand during the spring plowing season [14] - The coal chemical industry in Xinjiang is poised for significant investment opportunities, with multiple projects entering the EPC bidding phase in 2025 [15][16] Specific Company Recommendations - Companies to focus on in Xinjiang's coal chemical sector include: - Baofeng Energy - Tebian Electric Apparatus - Guanghui Energy - Hubei Yihua [20][22] - For companies providing services to coal chemical projects, the report recommends: - Xuefeng Technology - Guangdong Hongda - Yipuli [20] - In the new materials sector, companies like Bluestar Technology, Ruifeng New Materials, and Huaheng Biological are highlighted for their potential due to technological breakthroughs and favorable valuations [21] Market Trends - The report indicates that the vitamin and refrigerant sectors are expected to benefit from supply constraints and demand recovery, with a focus on small chemical products [24] - The agricultural chemical sector is experiencing a price increase trend, with several products seeing significant price rises due to strong demand and supply dynamics [14][24] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the ongoing developments in the Xinjiang coal chemical industry, which is expected to play a crucial role in China's energy independence strategy [22]

Investment Strategy - The report emphasizes the strategic importance of Xinjiang in the context of national energy security and the Belt and Road Initiative, highlighting its transition from a geographical hinterland to a frontline hub [9][10] - The coal chemical industry in Xinjiang is poised for growth due to favorable external conditions, including rising coal prices and a shift towards resource-rich western regions [9][10] - The report suggests focusing on two main investment themes: coal chemical investments and state-owned enterprise reforms in Xinjiang [9][10] Xinjiang Index Situation - The Xinjiang index stands at 101.14, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 1.75%, while the coal chemical investment index is at 100.21, up 3.98% [16] - The top three performing companies this week include Fostda (603173.SH) with a 26.22% increase, followed by Sanwei Chemical (002469.SZ) at 21.83%, and Tianfu Energy (600509.SH) at 12.32% [16][17] Key Data Tracking - Key prices in Xinjiang include Q5000 mixed coal at 140 CNY/ton, Q5200 mixed coal at 225 CNY/ton, and urea at 1638 CNY/ton, with significant year-on-year production increases noted [21][29] - In March 2025, coal railway shipments from state-owned key coal mines reached 3.24 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 16.9%, while raw coal production was 51.46 million tons, up 24.13% year-on-year [21][29] Key News and Company Announcements - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment has accepted the environmental impact assessment for the National Energy Group's 2 billion cubic meters per year coal-to-gas project, which will produce natural gas and several by-products [35][39] - Recent announcements from companies like Guanghui Energy indicate significant revenue declines, with a 40.72% drop in total revenue for 2024 compared to the previous year [38] Project Overview - The report outlines several key coal chemical projects in Xinjiang, including the National Energy Group's coal-to-gas project with an investment of 250 billion CNY and a production capacity of 40 billion cubic meters per year [41] - The total planned capacity for coal-to-gas, coal-to-oil, coal-to-olefins, and coal-to-methanol projects in Xinjiang is projected to reach 9,203 billion CNY in investments [41][43]

Core Insights - The company achieved a total revenue of 8.86 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 17.3%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 410 million yuan, up 19.3% [1] - The company is expected to benefit significantly from increased investment and accelerated construction in Xinjiang's coal chemical sector, with projected revenue and profit growth in 2025 [2] - The overall gross margin improved to 12.1% in 2024, an increase of 1.72 percentage points year-on-year, driven by enhanced profitability in the chemical sector [3] Revenue and Profit Performance - The quarterly revenue growth rates for 2024 were +110% in Q1, -3% in Q2, -17% in Q3, and +52% in Q4, indicating a strong acceleration in Q4 [1] - The company reported a non-recurring net profit of 380 million yuan, reflecting a 29.0% increase, primarily due to fewer impairment losses compared to the previous year [1] Industry and Business Segmentation - Revenue from the chemical sector reached 7.59 billion yuan, growing 13.5%, while environmental governance infrastructure saw a remarkable increase of 63.1% to 1.1 billion yuan [1] - The engineering contracting and design segments generated revenues of 8.43 billion yuan and 260 million yuan, respectively, with growth rates of 17.7% and 28.3% [1] Cash Flow and Financial Metrics - The company reported a net operating cash inflow of 590 million yuan, an increase of 80 million yuan year-on-year, indicating improved cash flow [3] - The comprehensive gross margin for 2024 was 12.1%, with the chemical and environmental governance sectors having gross margins of 12.5% and 11.7%, respectively [3] Order Book and Future Outlook - The company secured new orders worth 22.285 billion yuan in 2024, a 24% increase, with significant growth in overseas orders, which rose by 65% [4] - The backlog of contracts stood at 49.8 billion yuan, equivalent to 5.6 times the revenue for 2024, providing a solid foundation for future growth [4] - Projections for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 are 510 million, 650 million, and 800 million yuan, reflecting growth rates of 24%, 29%, and 22% respectively [4]

Investment Strategy - The report emphasizes the strategic importance of Xinjiang in the context of national policies, highlighting its transition from a peripheral region to a key gateway for the Belt and Road Initiative, benefiting from energy security and dual carbon environmental policies [9][10] - The focus is on two main investment themes: coal chemical investments and state-owned enterprise reforms, with a strong emphasis on the economic viability of coal chemical development in Xinjiang [9][12] Xinjiang Index Situation - The Xinjiang Index stands at 104.08, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 3.54%, while the Xinjiang Coal Chemical Investment Index is at 102.17, up by 1.95%, and the Xinjiang State-Owned Enterprise Reform Index is at 106.85, up by 5.32% [16][20] - The top three performing companies this week include Xibei Muye (300106.SZ) with an increase of 18.29%, Dezhan Health (000813.SZ) up by 17.66%, and Tianrun Dairy (600419.SH) up by 13.44% [16][18] Key Data Tracking - Key prices in Xinjiang include Q5000 mixed coal at 140 CNY/ton, Q5200 mixed coal at 225 CNY/ton, and urea at 1602 CNY/ton, with significant price changes noted [20][29] - In January 2025, coal railway shipments from state-owned key coal mines reached 3.83 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 18.72%, while the raw coal production in December 2024 was 58.22 million tons, also up by 18.24% year-on-year [20][29] Recent Developments and Company Announcements - The report details recent project updates, including the awarding of contracts for the 800,000 tons/year coal-to-olefins project by Xinjiang Shanneng Chemical Co., with various technology packages awarded to different companies [36][40] - The 1 million tons/year coal-to-oil project by Yitai Yili has seen a total investment of 18.3 billion CNY, with the construction expected to restart in October 2024 [36][40] Economic Advantages of Coal Chemical Development - Xinjiang's coal chemical industry benefits from lower raw material costs compared to other regions, with a cost advantage of approximately 1,900 CNY/ton when compared to other coal sources [11][12] - The report highlights that the development of coal chemical projects in Xinjiang is supported by improved transportation infrastructure and favorable industrial policies, making it a competitive location for such investments [10][12]