人民财讯1月9日电，乘联分会数据显示，2025年12月新能源乘用车厂商出口27.3万辆，同比增长 119.8%，环比下降4.0%；2025年1—12月累计出口242.2万辆，增长86.2%。 ...

证券研究报告 汽车 行业定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 12 月 26 日 投资评级： 看好（维持） 李泽 SAC：S1350525030001 lize@huayuanstock.com 秦梓月 SAC：S1350525070008 qinziyue@huayuanstock.com 板块表现： 26 年汽车出口思考（1）：分析中国 车企对欧洲出口的可行性 ——汽车行业双周报（20251208-20251221） 证券分析师 投资要点： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 联系人 西欧乘用车市场规模较大，新能源（全文均指新能源车）渗透率仍有提升空间，并 且从车种看，B/SUV-B/C/SUV-C 车型或为后续促进西欧乘用车渗透率提升的重点。 西欧市场乘用车年销量超 1000 万辆，2025M1-10 新能源渗透率同比提升 6pct 至 29%，且乘用车销量较高的国家（德国、英国、法国、西班牙、意大利，占西欧乘 用车销量比例超 75%）新能源渗透率普遍在 35%以下（英国 33%、德国 29%、法 国 25%、西班牙 19%、意大利 11%），仍有提升空间。从车种看，西欧市场乘用车 ...

智通财经APP获悉，乘联会秘书长崔东树发文称，2025年11月中国汽车实现出口81万辆，同比增48%，环比降2%，1-11月中国汽车实现出口733万辆，同 比2024年1-11月增速25%，总体较强。2025年11月中国新能源汽车出口35万辆，同比增长156%，表现很好;2025年1 - 11月新能源汽车出口量301万辆，同比 增长62%，增速近期超高。 2025年11月中国汽车出口总量的前10国家：墨西哥90212辆、俄罗斯61881辆、阿联酋53114辆、巴西29231辆、澳大利亚26121辆、英国24441辆、阿尔及利 亚21532辆、吉尔吉斯斯坦21372辆、印度尼西亚20915辆、哈萨克斯坦20213辆，其中本期较同期增量增大的前五个是：墨西哥54705辆、阿联酋22877辆、 阿尔及利亚19213辆、巴西18620辆、澳大利亚13252辆。俄罗斯市场中国车企防风险意识提升，虽然1-11月俄罗斯国内销量下滑不大，但2025年1-11月对 俄罗斯的出口下降幅度较大。2025年累计整车出口总量的前10国家：墨西哥573453辆、俄罗斯513078辆、阿联酋465539辆、巴西285122辆、英国2807 ...

Group 1 - Hunan exported 82,000 electric vehicles with an export value of 10.7 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year growth of 106.1% and 105.3% respectively, with the annual export value surpassing 10 billion yuan for the first time [1] - Major markets for Hunan's electric vehicle exports include Indonesia and Mexico, with exports to these countries reaching 3.79 billion yuan and 2.2 billion yuan, reflecting growth rates of 741.5% and 113.6% respectively, accounting for 56% of total electric vehicle exports [1] - Hunan's exports to Belt and Road countries totaled 7.62 billion yuan, a growth of 90.6%, while exports to ASEAN countries reached 4.95 billion yuan, increasing by 538.4% [1] Group 2 - Hunan's innovative "box-by-box" export model for lithium batteries has been adopted in multiple regions across China, helping companies save 3.2 million yuan in transportation and storage costs [2] - This model has been successfully implemented in cities such as Chongqing, Nanjing, and Zhengzhou [2]

与往年年底车市翘尾走势不同的是，今年11月乘用车市场销量出现下滑。 12月8日，乘联分会公布的数据显示，11月，全国乘用车市场零售约222.5万辆，同比下降8.1%，环比下 降1.1%；今年以来累计零售约2148.3万辆，同比增长6.1%。 其中，比亚迪新能源车月度批发销量超47万辆，吉利汽车紧随其后为18.7万辆，奇瑞汽车、上汽通用五 菱、长安汽车三家新能源车月度批发销量在10万辆，特斯拉中国、零跑汽车、赛力斯则在5万~9万辆区 间。在11月新能源车月度批发销量突破1万辆的22家厂商中，上汽通用和广汽丰田两家合资车企位列其 中，月批发量均为1.06万辆。 在这一背景下，11月我国新能源乘用车销量达到132.1万辆，同比增长4.2%，在国内总体乘用车的零售 渗透率逼近60%，为59.3%，较去年同期提升7个百分点。其中，自主品牌中的新能源车渗透率为 79.6%，豪华车中的新能源车渗透率为38.8%，主流合资品牌中的新能源车渗透率为8%。 从广义乘用车零售销量排名来看，比亚迪、吉利汽车、一汽-大众居前三，但其中有两家销量出现同比 下滑。而销量排在第三至第十名中，仅有鸿蒙智行销量同比出现95.2%的大幅增长。 在 ...

Group 1 - The automotive stocks mostly rose, with Chery Automobile (09973) up 3.61% to HKD 31.58, GAC Group (02238) up 3.52% to HKD 3.53, Leap Motor (09863) up 3.27% to HKD 52.05, Beijing Automotive (01958) up 3.02% to HKD 2.05, and XPeng Inc. -W (09868) up 1.46% to HKD 83.3 [1] - On November 27, the State Council Information Office held a regular press conference to introduce policies aimed at enhancing the adaptability of supply and demand for consumer goods, with a focus on promoting automotive consumption [1] - The Ministry of Commerce's official stated that commodity consumption is a crucial area for promoting consumption and improving people's livelihoods, with plans to advance automotive circulation reforms, expand used car markets, and develop automotive aftermarket services [1] Group 2 - Everbright Securities released a report indicating that the end-of-year peak season and the reduction of vehicle purchase tax may lead to record high orders by the end of the year, emphasizing the importance of model cycles [1] - The firm forecasts a slight year-on-year decline in domestic passenger vehicle retail sales for 2026, while exports of new energy passenger vehicles are expected to maintain rapid growth, stabilizing overall wholesale sales for the year [1] - CITIC Construction Investment pointed out that the automotive industry has three investment directions: cyclical growth, expansion, and overseas markets, suggesting a focus on industry structure and trends rather than total domestic demand expectations as policy expectations weaken in 2026 [1]

Core Insights - China's automotive exports are experiencing rapid growth, with a significant increase in new energy vehicle (NEV) exports, which are projected to exceed 200,000 units by September 2025, supporting high-quality development in the automotive industry [1][2] Export Performance - In September 2025, China's total automotive exports reached 652,000 units, marking a month-on-month increase of 6.7% and a year-on-year increase of 21%. NEV exports accounted for 222,000 units, representing a 100% year-on-year growth [2] - From January to September 2025, total automotive exports were 4.95 million units, up 14.8% year-on-year, with NEV exports at 1.758 million units, reflecting an 89.4% increase [2] - The top ten countries for NEV exports from January to September 2025 included Belgium, the Philippines, the UK, Brazil, Mexico, Australia, Thailand, the UAE, Indonesia, and India [2] Market Dynamics - The shift from subsidy-driven to market-driven growth in China's NEV sector has significantly enhanced its competitiveness. Despite challenges from EU policies in 2024, NEV exports still reached 2.01 million units, a 16% increase [3] - The performance of NEV exports in 2025 has been strong, particularly in plug-in hybrid and hybrid models, with robust demand in Western Europe and Asia [2][3] Regulatory Developments - To promote healthy development in NEV trade, the Ministry of Commerce and other departments have implemented export license management for pure electric passenger vehicles as of September 2025 [4][5] - The new regulations require that only automotive manufacturers and their authorized dealers can apply for export licenses, aiming to cut off unauthorized exports and improve product quality [6] Quality Control Measures - The export license management aims to address issues of low-quality exports that have tarnished the reputation of "Made in China" products. The lack of targeted management has led to a proliferation of low-quality vehicles in international markets [5][6] - The new policy stipulates that companies must be listed in the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's announcement of vehicle production enterprises and products, and their products must pass mandatory certification to ensure compliance with national safety standards [6] Strategic Recommendations - Industry experts suggest that companies should focus on technological innovation and differentiation to enhance brand competitiveness, investing in areas such as smart driving, solid-state batteries, and ultra-fast charging technologies [6][7] - There is a call for strengthening overseas compliance and risk management to ensure sustainable development, including adherence to local regulations and fostering partnerships with local enterprises [7]

临近2025年末，中国汽车出口量再度攀上高峰。中国汽车工业协会数据显示，今年前10个月，中国汽车 出口561.6万辆，同比增长15.7%，汽车出口额7983.9亿元，同比增长14.3%。其中，新能源汽车表现尤 为亮眼，今年累计出口超200万辆，同比增长90.4%，创下历年来出口新高。 在欧洲区域，中国汽车彰显出强大的冲劲。今年前8个月，中国汽车在欧洲的注册量已经超过43万辆， 同比增长74%。其中，比亚迪的销量超过铃木，奇瑞欧萌达销量超过三菱。 乘联分会分析指出，中国新能源汽车出口向西欧的销量明显提升。今年前9个月，中国新能源汽车出口 总量前三的国家中，比利时排行首位，累计销量约20.27万辆；英国排行第三位，累计销量约13.37万 辆。 在多家中国车企出口规划中，欧洲已被纳入重要版图。目前，比亚迪、奇瑞已在欧洲当地建设汽车工 厂，广汽、吉利、小鹏等车企均在欧洲设立研发中心。根据杰弗瑞集团预测，到2028年，中国品牌预计 将占欧洲汽车产量的6%。 在全球汽车销量最大的中国市场，今年前10个月，中国自主品牌零售市场份额已达65%，较去年同期增 长5.5个百分点。10月，中国自主品牌零售份额68.7%，同比增长3 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For alumina, the fundamentals may be in a stage where supply slightly converges and demand remains generally stable. The current oversupply situation may improve with production control. Suggest light - position short - term long trades at low prices, while controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. - For electrolytic aluminum, the fundamentals may be in a stage of temporary supply - demand stability with a slight accumulation of social inventory. The option market sentiment is bullish, and the implied volatility slightly decreases. Suggest light - position range - bound trading, while controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. - For cast aluminum alloy, the fundamentals may be in a stage of supply convergence and slightly reduced demand. Suggest light - position range - bound trading, while controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Aluminum Futures**: The closing price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract was 21,465 yuan/ton, down 260 yuan; the main - second - contract spread was - 60 yuan, up 80 yuan; the main contract holding volume was 356,547 lots, down 34,312 lots; the net holding of the top 20 in Shanghai aluminum was 19,360 lots, down 5,102 lots; the Shanghai - London ratio was 7.65, up 0.05; the Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory was 114,899 tons, up 1,564 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipt was 69,484 tons, up 4,742 tons [2]. - **Alumina Futures**: The closing price of the alumina futures main contract was 2,780 yuan/ton, down 37 yuan; the main - second - contract spread was - 61 yuan, up 21 yuan; the main contract holding volume was 405,009 lots, up 14,515 lots [2]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy Futures**: The closing price of the cast aluminum alloy main contract was 20,730 yuan/ton, down 260 yuan; the main - second - contract spread was - 105 yuan, down 45 yuan; the main contract holding volume was 13,191 lots, down 508 lots; the Shanghai Futures Exchange registered warehouse receipt was 59,431 tons, unchanged; the Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory was 65,119 tons, up 779 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Aluminum Spot**: The price of Shanghai Non - ferrous A00 aluminum was 21,460 yuan/ton, down 170 yuan; the price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous AOO aluminum was 21,590 yuan/ton, down 140 yuan; the Shanghai Wumao aluminum premium/discount was - 40 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the LME aluminum premium/discount was - 38.42 dollars/ton, down 10.37 dollars; the basis of electrolytic aluminum was - 5 yuan, up 90 yuan [2]. - **Alumina Spot**: The spot price of alumina in Shanghai Non - ferrous was 2,775 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; the basis of alumina was - 5 yuan, up 32 yuan [2]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy Spot**: The average price (tax - included) of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots nationwide was 21,450 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the basis of cast aluminum alloy was 720 yuan, up 10 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - **Alumina**: The national alumina production was 799.90 million tons, up 7.42 million tons; the national alumina capacity utilization rate was 86.96%, down 1.31 percentage points; the demand for alumina (electrolytic aluminum part) was 704.31 million tons, down 21.49 million tons; the supply - demand balance of alumina was 46.85 million tons, up 18.12 million tons; the export volume of alumina was 25 million tons, up 7 million tons; the import volume of alumina was 6 million tons, down 3.44 million tons [2]. - **Aluminum Scrap**: The average price of crushed raw aluminum in Foshan metal scrap was 17,000 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan; the average price of crushed raw aluminum in Shandong metal scrap was 16,600 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan; China's import volume of aluminum scrap and fragments was 155,414.40 tons, down 17,195.97 tons; China's export volume of aluminum scrap and fragments was 68.54 tons, up 15.31 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum was 59.70 million tons, up 3.10 million tons; the import volume of primary aluminum was 246,797.10 tons, up 31,034.96 tons; the export volume of primary aluminum was 28,969.92 tons, up 3,365.58 tons; the total production capacity of electrolytic aluminum was 4,523.20 million tons, unchanged; the production of electrolytic aluminum was 590 million tons, up 35.18 million tons; the export volume of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products was 98.24 million tons, down 0.12 million tons [2]. - **Aluminum Products and Alloys**: The production of aluminum products was 590 million tons; the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 60.83 million tons, down 4.82 million tons; the export volume of aluminum alloy was 2.35 million tons, down 0.56 million tons; the production of aluminum alloy was 177.60 million tons, unchanged [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - **Automobile**: The monthly automobile production was 327.90 million vehicles, up 5.25 million vehicles; in 2025, the automobile investment growth rate reached 17.5%; in October 2025, automobile production was 328 units, up 11% year - on - year; new energy vehicle production was 171 units, up 19% year - on - year, with a penetration rate of 52%; fuel vehicle production was 157 units, up 4% year - on - year; from January to October 2025, automobile production was 2,733 units, up 11% year - on - year; new energy vehicle production was 1,267 units, up 28% year - on - year, with a penetration rate of 46%; fuel vehicle production was 1,465 units, unchanged year - on - year [2]. - **Real Estate**: The national real estate climate index was 92.43, down 0.34 [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai aluminum was 11.83%, up 1.08 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of Shanghai aluminum was 10.23%, up 0.42 percentage points; the implied volatility of the Shanghai aluminum main contract at - the - money was 11.16%, down 0.0051; the call - put ratio of Shanghai aluminum options was 1.34, up 0.1024 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - **Federal Reserve News**: Fed Vice - Chair Jefferson said the downside risk of employment has increased but reiterated the need for more cautious policy adjustment; Fed Governor Cook denied fraud accusations; Fed Chair candidate Hasset said the job market signals are confusing and AI may suppress recruitment demand; Fed Governor Waller supported a 25 - basis - point rate cut in December [2]. - **Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure**: From January to October this year, the national fiscal revenue was 18.65 trillion yuan, up 0.8% year - on - year; in October, the national fiscal revenue was 2.26 trillion yuan, up 3.2% year - on - year; from January to October, the national fiscal expenditure was 22.58 trillion yuan, up 2% year - on - year [2]. - **Automobile Industry**: In October, new energy vehicle exports were 256,000 units, up 15.4% month - on - month and 99.9% year - on - year; from January to October, new energy vehicle exports were 2.014 million units, up 90.4% year - on - year [2].

人民财讯11月17日电，中国汽车工业协会发布数据显示，2025年10月，新能源汽车出口25.6万辆，环比 增长15.4%，同比增长99.9%。2025年1—10月，新能源汽车出口201.4万辆，同比增长90.4%。 ...