6 一、宏观经济组： 事件 1： 分析师：刘笑瑜 1 月 9 日早 9 点半国家统计局公布 12 月中国物价数据。 证书编号：S1080525070001 电话：0755-23838239 邮箱：liuxiaoyu@fcsc.com 证券研究报告 点评报告 2026 年 1 月 12 日 晨会纪要 核[心Ta观bl点e_：Summary] 第一创业证券研究所 1 月 9 日晚 9 点半美国劳工统计局公布 12 月劳动力市场数据 评论 2： 评论 1： 中国 12 月 CPI 同比为 0.8%，预期为 0.8%，前值 11 月为 0.7%；核心 CPI 同比为 1.2%，，前值为 1.2%。12 月 CPI 环比为 0.2%，前值为-0.1%；核心 CPI 环比同样 为 0.2%，前值为-0.1%。由于 CPI 的回升，核心 CPI 与 CPI 之间同比差距缩小至 0.4%。 12 月食品环比为 0.3%，前值为 0.5%，而去年同期是-0.6%。其中，鲜果环比上涨 2.6%，鲜菜上涨 0.8%，水产品上涨 0.2%；而猪肉下跌 1.7%，蛋类持平。 12 月非食品环比为 0.1%，前值为-0.2%。其中，其它 ...

Core Viewpoint - Greenland Holdings is facing significant operational challenges, with projected net losses for 2025 expected to be between -190 billion and -160 billion yuan, compared to -155.52 billion yuan in the previous year [1][2] Financial Performance - The company anticipates a net profit loss of 160 billion to 190 billion yuan for 2025, with a non-recurring net profit loss estimated at 159 billion to 189.5 billion yuan, indicating an expanded loss compared to the previous year [2] - As of September 2025, Greenland Holdings reported total liabilities of 943.1 billion yuan, with over a thousand ongoing lawsuits [1][4] Operational Challenges - The decline in asset prices and increased project liquidation pressure have led to significant impairment provisions for inventory, contributing to the expected losses [2] - The real estate sector is experiencing a "volume up, price down" trend, with contract sales area increasing by 21.9% to 7.972 million square meters, while sales revenue grew by only 6.53% to 68.099 billion yuan, indicating a clear strategy of price concessions [2][3] Business Strategy - The company has shifted focus towards revitalizing existing assets, with only three new real estate projects added in 2025, covering a land area of 116,400 square meters [3] - The infrastructure business, while showing some resilience, is also under pressure, with total cash collections of 84.9 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, and a significant decline in new project contracts [3] Debt Management - To alleviate financial pressure, Greenland Holdings is implementing debt restructuring and organizational adjustments, with total liabilities reaching 943.1 billion yuan and a cash balance of only 14.946 billion yuan as of September 2025 [4] - The company has initiated an overseas debt reduction plan, aiming to repurchase approximately 1.34 billion USD of bonds at a significant discount [4] Legal Issues - The number of lawsuits involving the company has doubled from 2022 to the first half of 2025, with ongoing cases increasing to 2,777 by September 2025, involving over 10 billion yuan [5] - The company is actively working to resolve these legal issues through specialized task forces and has set clear objectives to reduce the number and financial impact of lawsuits [5] New Business Ventures - In parallel with its traditional business contraction, Greenland Holdings is pursuing a "second entrepreneurship" strategy by entering new sectors such as the export of new energy vehicles, leveraging overseas resources and partnerships [6] - However, the development of these new business lines is expected to take time and is unlikely to significantly impact financial performance in the short term [6]

Core Viewpoint - Greenland Holdings (600606) is facing significant operational challenges, with projected net losses for 2025 expected to be between -19 billion to -16 billion yuan, compared to -15.55 billion yuan in the previous year, primarily due to declining asset prices, reduced revenue from real estate and infrastructure, and increased financial costs [1][2]. Financial Performance - The company anticipates a net profit loss of 160 billion to 190 billion yuan for 2025, with a non-recurring net profit loss expected to be between 159 billion to 189.5 billion yuan, indicating an expanded loss compared to the previous year [2]. - As of September 2025, total liabilities reached 943.1 billion yuan, with over a thousand ongoing lawsuits, highlighting the financial strain the company is under [1][4]. Business Operations - Greenland Holdings has shifted focus towards managing existing assets, with only three new real estate projects added in 2025, covering a land area of 116,400 square meters [3]. - The company reported a contract sales area of 7.972 million square meters in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 21.9%, but the sales revenue growth of 6.53% was significantly lower than the sales area growth, indicating a strategy of price reductions to stimulate sales [2][3]. Debt and Legal Issues - The company is under immense short-term debt pressure, with 1 billion yuan of borrowings due within a year and a cash balance of only 14.946 billion yuan, leading to an asset-liability ratio of 89.52% [4]. - The number of lawsuits involving the company has doubled from 3,655 cases in 2022 to 6,998 cases by mid-2025, with the total amount in dispute increasing from 19.324 billion yuan to 29.824 billion yuan [5]. Strategic Adjustments - To alleviate financial pressure, the company is implementing debt restructuring and organizational adjustments, including a plan to repurchase approximately 1.34 billion USD of debt at a significant discount [4]. - Greenland Holdings is also pursuing a "second entrepreneurship" strategy by exploring new business avenues, such as partnerships in the electric vehicle export sector, although these new ventures are not expected to contribute significantly to performance in the short term [6].

人民财讯1月9日电，乘联分会数据显示，2025年12月新能源乘用车厂商出口27.3万辆，同比增长 119.8%，环比下降4.0%；2025年1—12月累计出口242.2万辆，增长86.2%。 ...

证券研究报告 汽车 行业定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 12 月 26 日 投资评级： 看好（维持） 李泽 SAC：S1350525030001 lize@huayuanstock.com 秦梓月 SAC：S1350525070008 qinziyue@huayuanstock.com 板块表现： 26 年汽车出口思考（1）：分析中国 车企对欧洲出口的可行性 ——汽车行业双周报（20251208-20251221） 证券分析师 投资要点： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 联系人 西欧乘用车市场规模较大，新能源（全文均指新能源车）渗透率仍有提升空间，并 且从车种看，B/SUV-B/C/SUV-C 车型或为后续促进西欧乘用车渗透率提升的重点。 西欧市场乘用车年销量超 1000 万辆，2025M1-10 新能源渗透率同比提升 6pct 至 29%，且乘用车销量较高的国家（德国、英国、法国、西班牙、意大利，占西欧乘 用车销量比例超 75%）新能源渗透率普遍在 35%以下（英国 33%、德国 29%、法 国 25%、西班牙 19%、意大利 11%），仍有提升空间。从车种看，西欧市场乘用车 ...

智通财经APP获悉，乘联会秘书长崔东树发文称，2025年11月中国汽车实现出口81万辆，同比增48%，环比降2%，1-11月中国汽车实现出口733万辆，同 比2024年1-11月增速25%，总体较强。2025年11月中国新能源汽车出口35万辆，同比增长156%，表现很好;2025年1 - 11月新能源汽车出口量301万辆，同比 增长62%，增速近期超高。 2025年11月中国汽车出口总量的前10国家：墨西哥90212辆、俄罗斯61881辆、阿联酋53114辆、巴西29231辆、澳大利亚26121辆、英国24441辆、阿尔及利 亚21532辆、吉尔吉斯斯坦21372辆、印度尼西亚20915辆、哈萨克斯坦20213辆，其中本期较同期增量增大的前五个是：墨西哥54705辆、阿联酋22877辆、 阿尔及利亚19213辆、巴西18620辆、澳大利亚13252辆。俄罗斯市场中国车企防风险意识提升，虽然1-11月俄罗斯国内销量下滑不大，但2025年1-11月对 俄罗斯的出口下降幅度较大。2025年累计整车出口总量的前10国家：墨西哥573453辆、俄罗斯513078辆、阿联酋465539辆、巴西285122辆、英国2807 ...

Group 1 - Hunan exported 82,000 electric vehicles with an export value of 10.7 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year growth of 106.1% and 105.3% respectively, with the annual export value surpassing 10 billion yuan for the first time [1] - Major markets for Hunan's electric vehicle exports include Indonesia and Mexico, with exports to these countries reaching 3.79 billion yuan and 2.2 billion yuan, reflecting growth rates of 741.5% and 113.6% respectively, accounting for 56% of total electric vehicle exports [1] - Hunan's exports to Belt and Road countries totaled 7.62 billion yuan, a growth of 90.6%, while exports to ASEAN countries reached 4.95 billion yuan, increasing by 538.4% [1] Group 2 - Hunan's innovative "box-by-box" export model for lithium batteries has been adopted in multiple regions across China, helping companies save 3.2 million yuan in transportation and storage costs [2] - This model has been successfully implemented in cities such as Chongqing, Nanjing, and Zhengzhou [2]

Group 1: Passenger Car Market Performance - In November, the retail sales of passenger cars in China reached approximately 2.225 million units, representing a year-on-year decline of 8.1% and a month-on-month decrease of 1.1% [1] - Cumulative retail sales for the year amount to about 21.483 million units, showing a year-on-year growth of 6.1% [1] - The decline in November is unusual, as the market had previously experienced a 13% growth in the first half of the year, with a subsequent slowdown in the latter half [1] Group 2: New Energy Vehicle (NEV) Sales - In November, the sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 1.321 million units, marking a year-on-year increase of 4.2% and a penetration rate of 59.3% in the overall passenger car market [2] - BYD led the monthly wholesale sales of new energy vehicles with over 470,000 units, followed by Geely with 187,000 units [2] - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles among domestic brands is 79.6%, while luxury brands and mainstream joint ventures have penetration rates of 38.8% and 8%, respectively [2] Group 3: Export Performance of NEVs - In November, the export volume of new energy vehicles reached 284,000 units, a significant year-on-year increase of 243.3%, accounting for 47.3% of the total export market [3] - The export of pure electric vehicles constituted 57% of the new energy vehicle exports, while plug-in hybrid models made up 42% [3] - The export of power batteries also saw growth, with domestic usage at 5.683 million kWh and export usage at 1.09 million kWh, reflecting year-on-year increases of 13% and 188%, respectively [3] Group 4: Market Outlook and Challenges - The retail share of new forces in the automotive market reached 22.1% in November, an increase of 5.9 percentage points year-on-year [4] - Predictions for December suggest a stable market performance, with potential for slight negative growth due to consumer urgency driven by upcoming tax policy changes [5] - Looking ahead, the market is expected to face pressure in 2026 due to the reduction of tax exemptions, which could significantly impact sales growth [5]

Group 1 - The automotive stocks mostly rose, with Chery Automobile (09973) up 3.61% to HKD 31.58, GAC Group (02238) up 3.52% to HKD 3.53, Leap Motor (09863) up 3.27% to HKD 52.05, Beijing Automotive (01958) up 3.02% to HKD 2.05, and XPeng Inc. -W (09868) up 1.46% to HKD 83.3 [1] - On November 27, the State Council Information Office held a regular press conference to introduce policies aimed at enhancing the adaptability of supply and demand for consumer goods, with a focus on promoting automotive consumption [1] - The Ministry of Commerce's official stated that commodity consumption is a crucial area for promoting consumption and improving people's livelihoods, with plans to advance automotive circulation reforms, expand used car markets, and develop automotive aftermarket services [1] Group 2 - Everbright Securities released a report indicating that the end-of-year peak season and the reduction of vehicle purchase tax may lead to record high orders by the end of the year, emphasizing the importance of model cycles [1] - The firm forecasts a slight year-on-year decline in domestic passenger vehicle retail sales for 2026, while exports of new energy passenger vehicles are expected to maintain rapid growth, stabilizing overall wholesale sales for the year [1] - CITIC Construction Investment pointed out that the automotive industry has three investment directions: cyclical growth, expansion, and overseas markets, suggesting a focus on industry structure and trends rather than total domestic demand expectations as policy expectations weaken in 2026 [1]

Core Insights - China's automotive exports are experiencing rapid growth, with a significant increase in new energy vehicle (NEV) exports, which are projected to exceed 200,000 units by September 2025, supporting high-quality development in the automotive industry [1][2] Export Performance - In September 2025, China's total automotive exports reached 652,000 units, marking a month-on-month increase of 6.7% and a year-on-year increase of 21%. NEV exports accounted for 222,000 units, representing a 100% year-on-year growth [2] - From January to September 2025, total automotive exports were 4.95 million units, up 14.8% year-on-year, with NEV exports at 1.758 million units, reflecting an 89.4% increase [2] - The top ten countries for NEV exports from January to September 2025 included Belgium, the Philippines, the UK, Brazil, Mexico, Australia, Thailand, the UAE, Indonesia, and India [2] Market Dynamics - The shift from subsidy-driven to market-driven growth in China's NEV sector has significantly enhanced its competitiveness. Despite challenges from EU policies in 2024, NEV exports still reached 2.01 million units, a 16% increase [3] - The performance of NEV exports in 2025 has been strong, particularly in plug-in hybrid and hybrid models, with robust demand in Western Europe and Asia [2][3] Regulatory Developments - To promote healthy development in NEV trade, the Ministry of Commerce and other departments have implemented export license management for pure electric passenger vehicles as of September 2025 [4][5] - The new regulations require that only automotive manufacturers and their authorized dealers can apply for export licenses, aiming to cut off unauthorized exports and improve product quality [6] Quality Control Measures - The export license management aims to address issues of low-quality exports that have tarnished the reputation of "Made in China" products. The lack of targeted management has led to a proliferation of low-quality vehicles in international markets [5][6] - The new policy stipulates that companies must be listed in the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's announcement of vehicle production enterprises and products, and their products must pass mandatory certification to ensure compliance with national safety standards [6] Strategic Recommendations - Industry experts suggest that companies should focus on technological innovation and differentiation to enhance brand competitiveness, investing in areas such as smart driving, solid-state batteries, and ultra-fast charging technologies [6][7] - There is a call for strengthening overseas compliance and risk management to ensure sustainable development, including adherence to local regulations and fostering partnerships with local enterprises [7]