Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: Not specified [1] - Aluminum: Not specified [1] - Alumina: Not specified [1] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: Not specified [1] - Zinc: ★★★ (Three stars, indicating a clearer long - term trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ★★★ [1] - Tin: Not specified [1] - Lithium Carbonate: Not specified [1] - Industrial Silicon: Not specified [1] - Polysilicon: Not specified [1] Core Views - The prices of various non - ferrous metals are affected by multiple factors such as inventory, market sentiment, supply and demand, and policies, showing different trends and investment opportunities [1][2][3] Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - Friday's Shanghai copper warehouse receipt fluctuated with a relatively narrow amplitude in the past two days. The current copper price was basically flat at 95,320 yuan. Shanghai had a discount of 95 yuan, and the premium in Guangdong expanded to 100 yuan. The refined - scrap price difference continued to widen. Technically, the strong short - term support for copper price was at 91,000 yuan, and the strength - weakness boundary was at 96,500 yuan [1] Aluminum, Alumina, and Aluminum Alloy - Shanghai aluminum rebounded. The spot discounts in East China, Central China, and South China were 90 yuan, 150 yuan, and 175 yuan respectively. The social inventory of aluminum ingots increased by 15,000 tons on Thursday compared with Monday. The market sentiment fluctuated with war information, and the risk was not eliminated. Shanghai aluminum mainly fluctuated. Cast aluminum alloy followed the aluminum price. The domestic alumina operating capacity was temporarily stable, but the over - supply prospect remained. Short - term alumina fluctuated waiting for the clarity of Guinea's mining policy [2] Zinc - The SMM zinc social inventory decreased by 17,000 tons to 249,500 tons. With price cuts to reduce inventory and the expectation of the peak season, holders held up prices, and the spot premium remained stable. Shanghai zinc rebounded after stabilizing at the annual line. Due to environmental protection in some northern regions, downstream demand was mainly for rigid procurement. After the zinc price rebounded, spot sales were mediocre. The macro - sentiment was still volatile. Shanghai zinc was expected to return to fundamental trading, and the peak - season inventory reduction should be continuously tracked, with the disk likely to enter a low - volatility consolidation [3] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel fluctuated, market trading declined, and positions slowly increased. The strong US dollar put pressure on the market. The demand for stainless steel in the peak season was lower than expected, and downstream only made rigid restocking, with light trading. Due to macro - uncertainties, the futures market fluctuated weakly and could not drive the spot market. Although the social inventory decreased slightly, it was still at a high level, and inventory reduction was slow. Steel mills maintained high production schedules, resulting in high supply pressure. The rebound in upstream prices continued to push up the mid - stream prices and provided cost support. In the short term, it was still dominated by policy sentiment. With high inventories of nickel and stainless steel, attention should be paid to further changes in Indonesian policies, and the overall trend was a weak fluctuation [6] Tin - Shanghai tin increased its positions, and the intraday upward trend broke through 350,000 yuan, with the short - term price breaking upward. There was no specific news in the tin market, and the price volatility was related to the performance of equity assets. Funds tentatively went long. The uncertainty in the Middle East situation was still high, and the gap in the agreement direction between the two sides was large. Short - term attention should be paid to whether an actual cease - fire occurs. Patience and waiting were recommended [7] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate fluctuated strongly, and market trading was active. The macro - environment provided a strong time window, and the market was concerned about the supply shock from Zimbabwe. The overall inventory reduction speed in the market slowed down, and the change in the inventory structure was worthy of attention. The decline in smelter inventory slowed down, and the confidence of traders in hoarding goods wavered, and they began to sell to downstream. In terms of production, the production of lithium carbonate returned to a high level in early March, with weekly production hitting new highs. Waiting for the inventory inflection point. The latest quotation of Australian ore was 2,

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment ratings for steel, iron ore, coking coal, coke, and thermal coal are all "oscillating" [2][4][7] 2. Core Views - The steel market is waiting for the peak season. Currently, the supply - demand contradiction is limited. The inventory pressure restricts the steel price, and the peak - season destocking amplitude will affect the price. The Middle - East situation supports the steel price bottom, and steel prices will follow raw material fluctuations in the short term [1] - The iron ore market sentiment is poor, and the price is oscillating downward. In the short term, the supply - demand contradiction is not obvious, and the high inventory suppresses the price in the long run [3] - The supply of coking coal and coke is gradually recovering, and both are in range - bound oscillations. The supply of coking coal is relatively loose, and the coke supply - demand contradiction is limited [5][6] - The terminal restocking of thermal coal has recovered, and the coal price has rebounded. The supply is increasing, and the consumption is seasonally weak. The non - power coal demand in the off - season has a great impact on the coal supply and demand [8] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Steel - **Market Analysis**: The steel futures main contract oscillated. The national building materials trading volume was 89900 tons, and the spot trading was weak. This week, the rebar output increased, the apparent demand soared, and the inventory was destocked again; the hot - rolled coil output increased slightly, the apparent demand improved, and the inventory was destocked [1] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: The supply - demand contradiction of steel is limited. Building materials maintain weak supply and demand, and the inventory is slightly higher than the same period. The output of plates is relatively high, and the demand is also resilient, with greater inventory pressure than building materials. With the peak consumption season approaching, the supply - demand of steel is expected to improve. The inventory pressure restricts the steel price, and the Middle - East situation supports the price bottom [1] - **Strategy**: The unilateral strategy is to oscillate, and there are no cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or options strategies [2] Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: The iron ore futures price oscillated downward. The prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties at Tangshan Port fell slightly. The total transaction volume of iron ore at major national ports was 613000 tons, a 18.34% increase from the previous day. The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills was 2281500 tons, an increase of 69500 tons from the previous period, and the port inventory decreased slightly [3] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: The high ore price stimulates the iron ore supply, and the supply pressure increases. The pig iron output has significantly rebounded. In the short term, the supply - demand contradiction is not obvious, and the high inventory suppresses the price in the long run [3] - **Strategy**: The unilateral strategy is to oscillate, and there are no cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or options strategies [4] Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Analysis**: The coking coal and coke futures oscillated. The coal price in the production area rose slightly, and the spot market of coke at the port was stable. The coal mine output increased, the mine inventory decreased, the downstream coking enterprises stocked up, and the total inventory increased; the coke output increased slightly, and the total inventory was stable with a slight increase [5][6] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: For coking coal, the domestic coal mine resumption is accelerating, and the supply is relatively loose. The high raw material inventory of downstream restricts the purchasing enthusiasm. For coke, the coking profit is good, the coking enterprises are resuming production, and the supply - demand contradiction is limited [6] - **Strategy**: The coking coal and coke strategies are both to oscillate, and there are no cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or options strategies [7] Thermal Coal - **Market Analysis**: The coal price in the main production area rose slightly, and the port price rebounded. The terminal restocking of metallurgy and chemical industries was active, and the trading at the port improved. The import trading was cold due to the increase in freight and the price inversion [8] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: The coal supply is increasing after the Two Sessions, and the consumption is seasonally weak. The non - power coal demand in the off - season has a great impact on the coal supply and demand [8] - **Strategy**: No strategy content is provided in the text

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★★★ [1] - Aluminum: ★☆☆ [1] - Alumina: ★★★ [1] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: ★☆☆ [1] - Zinc: ☆☆☆ [1] - Lead: ★☆☆ [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ☆☆☆ [1] - Tin: ★★★ [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★★★ [1] - Industrial Silicon: ★★★ [1] - Polysilicon: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Views - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East has a significant impact on the prices of various non - ferrous metals, and the market is in a state of high uncertainty [1][2][7] - Different metals have different supply - demand situations and price trends, with some facing high inventory pressure and others being affected by production capacity changes and cost factors Summaries by Metal Copper - On Monday, Shanghai copper increased positions and oscillated. The import price found support near the MA60 moving average, and the copper price rebounded. The risk - aversion sentiment due to the Middle East situation affected trading. The domestic SMM spot copper price dropped to 99,480 yuan, and the discounts in Shanghai and Guangdong continued to shrink. The SMM social inventory increased by 1,700 tons to 578,900 tons. Uncertainties in the war situation and high visible inventory may lead the Shanghai copper price to seek support at 98,000 yuan or even the weekly line level [1] Aluminum & Alumina & Aluminum Alloy - Shanghai aluminum fluctuated sharply, with spot discounts in different regions. The domestic social inventory is at a high level in recent years, but the Middle East situation has increased overseas shortage concerns, showing an external - strong and internal - weak market. The aluminum price is volatile at a historical high, and the previous high level has resistance. Cast aluminum alloy follows the fluctuation of Shanghai aluminum, and the price difference between them is expected to widen under geopolitical risks. The operating capacity of domestic alumina has decreased, and the oversupply situation has improved slightly. The Middle East electrolytic aluminum production cut has a negative impact, and the soaring freight has increased the import cost, but the overall oversupply prospect remains unchanged. The alumina price rose sharply driven by funds, and after the volatility soared, selling call options can be considered [2] Zinc - With the sharp rise in oil and gas prices, the US dollar index continued to strengthen, and the LME zinc had insufficient rebound momentum, unable to strongly drive the domestic market. The SMM zinc social inventory continued to increase to 262,200 tons. The domestic road transportation has recovered, and the downstream start - up has gradually returned to normal. The low - level stocking willingness has increased, and the import ore TC has continued to decline. The performance in the "Golden March and Silver April" peak season needs to be verified by inventory reduction, and it is currently in a high - level oscillation state, waiting for more directional signals [3] Lead - Recycled lead has been officially included in the delivery as a substitute, and the PB2703 contract has started to be implemented, reducing the delivery risk and effectively stabilizing the market fluctuation. The Shanghai lead market has entered a dual - pricing logic of primary and recycled lead, and the price center is expected to move down. However, the fixed discount of recycled lead to the primary lead delivery product is 150 yuan/ton, and the cost support of recycled lead is prominent when the lead price is low. After the festival, the downstream start - up has recovered quickly, and as the inventory raw materials are consumed, the downstream low - level stocking is expected to improve. The primary lead smelter's start - up is gradually recovering, and the SMM 1 lead has a discount of 105 yuan/ton to the near - month contract, and it is profitable to deliver to the warehouse. The inventory of recycled lead smelters is mainly concentrated in mid - to late March, and the refined - scrap price difference is running at a low level of 50 yuan/ton. The domestic and foreign inventories are still at a high level, and the import window remains open. Under the dominance of oversupply, the Shanghai lead is expected to oscillate narrowly around the cost, with a price range of 16,500 - 17,300 yuan/ton [5] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel rebounded, but the market trading was dull. The news about the Indonesian quota triggered speculation. The social inventory of nickel and stainless steel continued to increase, the market confidence declined, and the trading was light. There was only a small amount of rigid - demand restocking, and the terminal downstream procurement was basically completed, with almost no substantial purchasing intention. The premium of Jinchuan nickel was 9,500 yuan, the import nickel had a discount of 50 yuan, and the electrolytic nickel was at par. The spot price of Jinchuan nickel was resistant to decline, and the high - nickel iron price was 1,031 yuan per line point. The upstream price rebounded and then faced resistance and回调. The short - term market is still dominated by policy sentiment. The pure nickel inventory increased by 3,000 tons to 73,000 tons, and the stainless steel inventory increased by 15,000 tons to 869,000 tons. The market is in a pre - festival state, waiting for clarity [6] Tin - Shanghai tin reduced positions, and the downward trend tested the MA60 moving average again. The situation between the US, Israel, and Iran continued to heat up, the short - term oil price soared, which affected the global economic growth expectation and greatly dragged down the stock markets of Japan and South Korea centered on the semiconductor industry. The Gulf situation may also affect the investment rhythm of AI semiconductors. The previous upward trend was based on domestic small - metal rights and interests, while the current market is continuously evaluating the geopolitical situation. The price is still in a relatively high - price area. After the middle and downstream choose the right time for point - price stocking, the price may seek support at the weekly K - line level, such as 350,000 yuan [7] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate rebounded and reached a high level, but the market trading was dull. A large number of hedging positions have been closed during the rapid price increase, and the strong spot and long - speculating positions are in the mainstream, with a fragile position structure. The total market inventory decreased by 2,000 tons to 105,000 tons, the smelter inventory decreased by 1,300 tons to 18,000 tons, the downstream inventory increased by 30,000 tons to 43,700 tons, and the trader inventory decreased by 3,400 tons to 43,000 tons. The inventory reduction speed has slowed down, mainly because the downstream replenished inventory at the right time, the smelter has shown signs of unsalable products, the trader's confidence in domestic products has shaken, and the inventory in the middle - link is high, so there may be spot sales. The latest quotation of Australian ore is 1,970 US dollars, and the ore - end quotation has been flexibly adjusted downward. The short - term uncertainty of lithium carbonate is strong [8] Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures rose and then fell, driven by the expected increase in energy costs due to the Middle East conflict. The SMM spot price of East China 553 silicon was 9,150 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton. The raw material prices in the week were stable, except that the price of Taishu coke increased by 20 yuan/ton, and the news of the increase in the external - purchased electricity price of large eastern factories needs to be confirmed. The industrial silicon production in March is expected to be 345,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 26%. The large factories in Xinjiang have resumed production this week, while the start - up in the southwest has remained stable. The weekly start - up of downstream organic silicon has increased, and the DMG price has risen; the start - up of primary aluminum alloy has declined due to the increase in aluminum price and increased wait - and - see sentiment; the polysilicon price has continued to fall, the inventory is high, and the production increase is limited. The SMM industrial silicon social inventory is 553,000 tons, a weekly decrease of 7,000 tons. The short - term price is driven by the macro - situation, and the volatility risk should be vigilant, maintaining an oscillating judgment [9] Polysilicon - The polysilicon futures rose and then fell. The Middle East conflict has led to an expected increase in energy costs, and the increase in European oil and gas prices may increase the domestic photovoltaic procurement expectation. On the spot side, according to SMM data, the average price of N - type re -投料 has dropped to 48,900 yuan/ton, a weekly decline of 3,000 yuan/ton. The downstream demand is weak, and the post - festival start - up situation is lower than expected. The SMM - statistics polysilicon inventory has risen to 348,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 4,000 tons. The high - inventory state continues to suppress the price. The short - term market fluctuates under the influence of macro - sentiment, but the fundamentals are still weak, and the rebound space is limited [10]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for lithium carbonate is "Oscillating" [5] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the holiday, lithium salt prices fluctuated within a narrow range. The fundamentals provide short - term support for prices but cannot independently drive prices up. In the future, the supply side is expected to remain high or even increase, while the demand side faces downward pressure. In the short term, it is a combination of strong reality and weak expectations. It is recommended to focus on short - selling opportunities on rallies and the reverse spread opportunity of LC2511 - 2512 [2][3][12][13] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Continued Inventory Reduction During the Peak Season, Focus on Project Restart Progress - Post - holiday (09/26 - 10/10) lithium salt prices had a narrow - range oscillation. LC2510's closing price remained flat at 72,700 yuan/ton, LC2511's closing price decreased by 0.2% to 72,700 yuan/ton. SMM's average spot prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 0.1% to 73,600 and 71,300 yuan/ton respectively. The price of lithium hydroxide slightly declined. The average prices of SMM's coarse - grained and micron - sized battery - grade lithium hydroxide decreased by 0.5% to 73,500 and 78,500 yuan/ton respectively. The price difference between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate narrowed to near zero [11][12] - Currently in the peak - season inventory reduction period, last week's domestic lithium carbonate weekly production slightly increased to 20,600 tons, and inventory decreased by 2,000 tons to 135,000 tons compared to September 25th. In October, downstream production schedules continued to increase month - on - month, and with a slight decrease in imports, domestic lithium carbonate is expected to continue inventory reduction, but the reduction rate is lower than the same period last year [12] 2. Review of Weekly Industry News - Zangge Mining's wholly - owned subsidiary obtained the Real Estate Ownership Certificate (Mining Right) and Mining License, adding associated minerals such as lithium ore, which is significant for ensuring potassium salt supply, developing lithium resources, and enhancing the company's competitiveness [14] - The Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs will implement export controls on lithium batteries and related items with a weight - energy density of 300Wh/kg or more starting from November 8, 2025 [14] - Ford postponed purchasing lithium from Liontown due to the decline in electric vehicle sales, and the future delivery volume will be halved [15] 3. Monitoring of Key High - Frequency Data in the Industry Chain 3.1 Resource End: Spot Quotes of Lithium Concentrate Remained Stable - The spot price of lithium concentrate remained stable, with the average spot price of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) at 839 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 2.1% month - on - month [12] 3.2 Lithium Salts: The Market Trended Weakly and Oscillated - The closing price of the main lithium carbonate futures contract on GFEX (LC2511) decreased by 0.2% month - on - month to 72,740 yuan/ton [12] 3.3 Downstream Intermediate Products: Quotes Slightly Declined - The prices of downstream intermediate products such as lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials showed different trends, with some prices slightly decreasing and some increasing [12] 3.4 Terminal: The Installation Proportion of Lithium Iron Phosphate in August Further Increased - In August, the installation proportion of lithium iron phosphate in power batteries further increased, and relevant data on new energy vehicle production, sales, and penetration rate were also presented [41]