Core Viewpoint - The "expected difference" in domestic demand improvement is greater than that of external demand, driven by a longer Spring Festival holiday, continuation of national subsidy policies, and recovery of consumer confidence [7][14][95]. Consumption - In January-February, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 2.8% year-on-year, exceeding the expected 2.4%, with a rebound of 1.9 percentage points from December 2025. This improvement is attributed to two main factors: the longer Spring Festival holiday boosting consumption in tobacco, alcohol, and food categories, and the new round of "old-for-new" funding stimulating significant growth in home appliances and furniture [6][14][93]. - Restaurant income saw a year-on-year growth rate increase of 2.6 percentage points to 4.8%, while service retail sales also rose by 0.1 percentage points to 5.6% compared to the end of last year [7][14][93]. Investment - Fixed asset investment showed a remarkable rebound, with a year-on-year increase of 1.8% in January-February, a rise of 16.9 percentage points from December 2025, marking an unprecedented recovery. This improvement is supported by a decrease in the proportion of special refinancing bonds and enhanced cash flow for enterprises due to previous debt-clearing policies [7][17][57]. - Infrastructure investment improved significantly, rising by 20.4 percentage points to 11.4%, while manufacturing investment increased by 12.7 percentage points to 3.1%. Service industry investment also saw a notable recovery, with a decrease in the year-on-year decline to -0.6% [17][62][68]. Real Estate - Although sales, new construction, and completion rates remain low, real estate investment showed a significant rebound, with a year-on-year decline narrowing to -11.1%, an improvement of 24.7 percentage points. The sales area of commercial housing also improved slightly, with a year-on-year decline of 13.5%, up by 2.1 percentage points from December 2025 [8][29][68]. - The credit financing growth rate for real estate companies increased, contributing to the rebound in real estate investment. However, new construction and completion rates still face uncertainties, with declines of 3.7 and 9.6 percentage points, respectively [29][94]. Production - The industrial added value increased by 6.3% year-on-year in January-February, reflecting a significant rebound influenced by the "Spring Festival misalignment" and demand improvement. This increase is estimated to be boosted by 0.7-0.8 percentage points due to the holiday effects [6][37][94]. - Labor-intensive industries, such as food manufacturing and beverages, showed substantial production increases, while sectors like electrical machinery and non-metallic minerals also improved, likely due to stronger exports and investment recovery [37][94].

Core Viewpoints - Domestic demand shows a significant "expectation difference" compared to external demand, driven by factors such as the extended Spring Festival holiday, government subsidy policies, and improved consumer confidence [2][10][88] Consumption - In January-February, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 2.8% year-on-year, exceeding expectations of 2.4%, with a notable rebound of 1.9 percentage points from the previous month [9][88] - The growth in consumption was primarily influenced by the long Spring Festival holiday, which boosted demand for essential goods like tobacco, alcohol, and food, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 19.1% and 10.2% [10][88] - The new round of "old-for-new" subsidy policies led to significant increases in the sales of home appliances and furniture, with year-on-year growth rates of 22.0% and 11.0% respectively [10][88] - Service consumption also improved, with restaurant revenue growth rising by 2.6 percentage points to 4.8% [10][88] Investment - Fixed asset investment showed a remarkable rebound, with a year-on-year increase of 1.8%, up 16.9 percentage points from the previous month, marking a historically rare recovery [2][13][91] - Infrastructure investment improved significantly, with a year-on-year increase of 10.8%, driven by a decrease in the proportion of special refinancing bonds [13][91] - Manufacturing investment also saw a notable rise, with a year-on-year increase of 3.1%, while real estate investment's year-on-year decline narrowed to -11.1% [13][91] Real Estate - Although sales, new construction, and completion rates remain low, real estate investment showed a significant rebound, with a year-on-year increase of 24.7 percentage points to -11.1% [3][24][63] - The sales area of commercial housing improved slightly, with a year-on-year decline of 13.5%, up 2.1 percentage points from the previous month [3][24][63] - However, new construction and completion rates still face uncertainties, with respective year-on-year declines of 23.1% and 27.9% [3][24][63] Production - Industrial value-added growth rebounded significantly, with a year-on-year increase of 6.3%, up 1.1 percentage points from December 2025, reflecting the combined effects of the Spring Festival timing and improved demand [5][32][90] - Labor-intensive industries, such as food manufacturing and beverages, showed substantial production increases, driven by improved consumer spending [32][90] - The production of intermediate and capital goods also improved, likely due to stronger exports and investment recovery [32][90] Summary - The easing of pressures from debt and real estate markets has led to a notable improvement in domestic demand, which may represent the largest expectation difference for the economy this year [4][90][41]

Core Viewpoints - The improvement in domestic demand is more significant than external demand, with a notable "expectation gap" observed in early 2026 [2][10][90] Consumption - The retail sales growth rate for January-February increased by 1.9 percentage points year-on-year to 2.8%, driven by a longer Spring Festival holiday and government subsidy policies [2][10][88] - Key categories such as tobacco, alcohol, and staple foods saw significant improvements, with year-on-year growth rates rising to 19.1% and 10.2% respectively [10][88] - Service consumption also showed positive recovery, with restaurant income growth rising to 4.8% [2][10][88] Investment - Fixed asset investment rebounded significantly, with a year-on-year increase of 1.8%, up 16.9 percentage points from the previous month, marking a historically rare rebound [2][10][13] - Infrastructure investment improved notably, with a year-on-year increase of 11.4%, while manufacturing investment rose to 3.1% [7][52][57] - The decline in real estate investment narrowed to -11.1%, reflecting improvements in corporate cash flow and a reduction in the issuance of special refinancing bonds [2][10][13] Real Estate - Despite low levels of sales, new construction, and completions, real estate investment showed a significant rebound, with sales area and amount improving slightly [3][24][89] - The credit financing growth rate for real estate companies increased, contributing to the rebound in investment [3][24][89] - However, new construction and completion growth rates remain low, indicating uncertainty in future investment recovery [3][24][89] Production - Industrial value-added growth for January-February rose to 6.3%, reflecting the combined effects of the Spring Festival timing and improved demand [2][10][32] - Labor-intensive industries, such as food manufacturing, saw significant production increases, indicating a recovery in consumer demand [32][90] - The production of intermediate and capital goods also improved, likely due to stronger exports and investment recovery [32][90] Summary - The easing of pressures from debt and real estate is expected to lead to significant improvements in domestic demand, which may represent the largest expectation gap for the economy in 2026 [4][90][41]

Group 1: Fiscal Policy Insights - The core feature of the 2026 fiscal budget is "flat total, deep reform," emphasizing the need to focus on the underlying reform implications rather than just the numerical values [2][3] - The shift from "expanding total" to "deep reform" is driven by rigid expenditure pressures and challenges in revenue sources, including declining land finance and mismatched tax sources [3] - The 2026 budget aims to release reform dividends by focusing on fund efficiency and enhancing the local tax system, particularly addressing local fiscal difficulties [4] Group 2: Economic Impact of Rising Oil Prices - The impact of rising oil prices on PPI and CPI is quantified at 3.4% and 1.4% respectively, with the current oil price surge potentially leading to an earlier positive PPI turnaround [5][10] - Rising oil prices are expected to increase prices in the petrochemical chain, but the overall profit margins and demand are anticipated to decline significantly, leading to a 1.1 percentage point drop in industrial profit growth for every $10 increase in oil prices [6] - The secondary effects of rising oil prices may squeeze corporate profits and slow industrial value-added growth, but the impact on consumption and exports is expected to be limited, potentially accelerating domestic energy transition [7][10]

Group 1: Industrial Production Trends - The industrial production shows weakness, with a decrease in blast furnace operating rates by 2.5% week-on-week and a year-on-year decline of 2.5 percentage points to -0.3% [2][5] - Steel apparent consumption has improved, increasing by 4.4% week-on-week and rising by 10.6 percentage points year-on-year to 4.2% [2][8] - Steel social inventory continues to rise, with an increase of 8.3% week-on-week [2] Group 2: Petrochemical and Construction Industry - In the petrochemical sector, the operating rate of soda ash has increased by 1.7% week-on-week and by 2.5 percentage points year-on-year to -0.5% [12] - The operating rate of PTA has risen by 6.1% week-on-week and by 4.8 percentage points year-on-year to -2.8% [12] - In contrast, the operating rate of polyester filament has decreased by 1.1 percentage points year-on-year to -2.4% [12] - In the construction industry, cement production and demand are showing signs of recovery, with a grinding operating rate increasing by 14.7% week-on-week and a year-on-year increase of 1.5 percentage points to 4.9% [20] - Cement shipment rates have decreased by 0.3 percentage points year-on-year to 3.6% [20] Group 3: Demand and Consumption Trends - The average daily transaction area of commercial housing in 30 major cities has decreased year-on-year to 9.7%, with first, second, and third-tier cities seeing declines of 6.9%, 21.7%, and -13.9% respectively [43] - The freight volume related to domestic demand has increased, with railway freight volume rising by 2.1 percentage points year-on-year to 3.1% and highway freight vehicle traffic increasing by 20.2 percentage points to 26% [54] - Port cargo throughput has also increased year-on-year by 23.4 percentage points to 25.5% [54] Group 4: Price Trends in Agricultural Products - Agricultural product prices are showing a mixed trend, with vegetable and fruit prices decreasing by 3.9% and 0.6% respectively, while egg prices have increased by 1.1% [94] - The industrial product price index has risen by 5.0% week-on-week, with the energy and chemical price index increasing by 8.7% [107] Group 5: Export and Shipping Trends - The CCFI composite index has increased by 0.9% week-on-week, with significant rises in Southeast Asia shipping rates by 6.8% [84] - The BDI shipping rate has decreased by 6.1% [84]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant impact of the "Spring Festival misalignment" on economic data for January and February, which may lead to a distorted understanding of the economic "opening red" and affect market expectations [10][11][12]. Group 1: Impact of "Spring Festival Misalignment" - The "Spring Festival misalignment" is expected to push up economic data for January and February while lowering data for March, causing volatility in year-on-year growth rates for key indicators like exports and industrial value added [11][12]. - Historical data shows that the Spring Festival, being a movable holiday, has a more substantial impact on economic data than fixed holidays, with fluctuations in year-on-year growth rates sometimes reaching 40 percentage points [11][12]. - The influence of the Spring Festival misalignment is more pronounced on the supply side than the demand side, with effects lasting over a month, characterized by three phases: pre-holiday rush, holiday shutdown, and post-holiday resumption [11][12][18]. Group 2: Actual Resumption of Work - After adjusting for the Spring Festival misalignment, production and export indicators show improvement, with various sectors experiencing different levels of recovery compared to December 2025 [46][122]. - Key indicators such as the operating rates of blast furnaces and PTA, as well as highway freight volume, have shown year-on-year increases of 2-5 percentage points [46][122]. - Export conditions have also improved, with port cargo throughput in January-February 2026 rising by 7.4 percentage points compared to December 2025 [64][122]. Group 3: Economic "Opening Red" Interpretation - The combination of "Spring Festival misalignment" and production improvements is likely to result in a positive rebound in industrial value added and exports for January and February [94][99]. - Forecasts suggest that industrial value added for January-February may reach a year-on-year growth of 6%, while exports could rise to 21.9% [94][99]. - Consumer data is expected to exceed previous pessimistic market expectations, with service consumption likely to outperform goods consumption [116][124]. Group 4: Investment Trends - The easing of the "debt squeeze" effect may lead to better-than-expected fixed asset investment growth compared to December 2025, although the rebound may be limited [105][124]. - The share of special refinancing bonds has significantly decreased, indicating a potential recovery in infrastructure investment, while real estate investment remains weak due to ongoing financing pressures [105][124]. - Overall, fixed asset investment growth for January-February is anticipated to be better than the -13.2% recorded in December 2025, but still within the range of -5% to -10% [105][124].

Core Viewpoint - The "Spring Festival misalignment" significantly boosted export growth by 8.4 percentage points, while external demand improvement contributed an additional 6.8 percentage points to export growth [6][85]. Export Data Analysis - In January-February, exports surged by 21.8% year-on-year, compared to an expected 7.3% and a previous value of 6.6% [5][13]. - The primary reason for the export spike was the "Spring Festival misalignment," with historical data showing significant fluctuations in early-year export growth due to this factor [7][14]. - The "Spring Festival adjustment" model indicates that the impact of the festival on exports lasts for about one and a half months, with last year's earlier festival leading to a lower base for comparison this year [7][85]. Sector-Specific Insights - Labor-intensive sectors such as textiles, clothing, and furniture saw significant export rebounds, benefiting directly from the "Spring Festival misalignment" and improved demand from the U.S. [7][23]. - Intermediate and capital goods, including integrated circuits and automotive parts, also experienced notable export growth, reflecting the acceleration of industrialization in emerging economies [7][23]. Country-Specific Export Dynamics - The recovery in U.S. demand and the acceleration of emerging market demand are key drivers of export growth [8][86]. - Exports to the U.S. rebounded by 13.4 percentage points to -16.7%, while exports to Africa and ASEAN also showed strong growth, indicating a direct relationship with the industrialization and internal demand release in emerging economies [8][32][33]. Import Trends - Imports increased by 19.8% year-on-year, with processing trade imports rising by 19.1% to 37.9% [39][75]. - The import growth was driven by a significant increase in machinery and electrical products, with integrated circuits showing a 23.2% year-on-year increase [39][75]. Future Outlook - The "Spring Festival misalignment" may lead to a decline in March export figures, but overall, exports are expected to maintain high growth throughout the year [9][87]. - The strong export data from January-February reflects ongoing improvements in external demand, with expectations of stable export growth driven by U.S. inventory replenishment and easing tariff conditions [9][87]. Regular Tracking - In January-February, both exports and imports showed strong performance, with consumer electronics and light industrial products experiencing notable rebounds [88]. - Capital goods, intermediate goods, and energy resources also saw increased export growth, indicating a broad-based recovery across sectors [61][88].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant impact of the "Spring Festival misalignment" on economic data for January and February, which may lead to a distorted understanding of the economic "opening red" and affect market expectations [4][11][124]. Group 1: Impact of "Spring Festival Misalignment" - The "Spring Festival misalignment" is expected to push up economic data for January and February while lowering data for March, creating volatility in year-on-year comparisons [4][5][124]. - Historical data shows that the Spring Festival, being a movable holiday, causes significant fluctuations in economic indicators, with some years experiencing changes of up to 40 percentage points [4][12][124]. - The impact of the Spring Festival misalignment is more pronounced on the supply side than on the demand side, with effects lasting over a month [4][19][124]. Group 2: Actual Resumption of Work - After excluding the Spring Festival misalignment, production and export indicators show improvement, while domestic demand presents a mixed performance [6][126]. - Production indicators such as high furnace operation rates and highway freight volume have improved, indicating better production conditions compared to late December 2025 [6][50][126]. - Export conditions have also improved, with port cargo throughput showing a year-on-year increase of 7.4 percentage points compared to December 2025 [6][68][126]. Group 3: Economic "Opening Red" Interpretation - The combination of "Spring Festival misalignment" and production improvements is likely to result in a positive rebound in industrial value added and export year-on-year figures for January and February [8][98][128]. - Forecasts suggest that industrial value added for January and February may reach a year-on-year growth of 6%, while exports could rise to 21.9% [8][98][128]. - Consumer data is expected to exceed previous pessimistic market expectations, with service consumption likely to outperform goods consumption [8][120][128]. Group 4: Investment Trends - The easing of the "debt crowding-out effect" may lead to better fixed investment growth compared to December 2025, although the rebound may be limited [9][109][129]. - Infrastructure investment is expected to improve, but real estate investment remains weak due to ongoing financing pressures [9][109][129]. - Overall fixed asset investment is projected to show a year-on-year improvement, but still face challenges in turning positive [9][109][129].

Group 1: Economic Impact of "Spring Festival Displacement" - The "Spring Festival displacement" is expected to elevate economic data for January and February while suppressing March data, primarily affecting the supply side more than the demand side [9][10] - Historical analysis indicates that the "Spring Festival displacement" can cause significant fluctuations in quarterly economic data, with some years seeing changes of up to 40 percentage points [9] - This year's earlier return home phenomenon may amplify the impact of the "Spring Festival displacement," potentially increasing export growth by 8.4 percentage points in January and February while decreasing it by 18.6 percentage points in March [9][10] Group 2: Production and Export Trends - Production across upstream, midstream, and downstream sectors has shown improvement, with industrial production levels better than those at the end of December 2025 [9][10] - Export data for January and February indicates a significant recovery, with port cargo throughput increasing by 7.4 percentage points compared to December 2025 [9][10] - The internal demand shows a mixed performance, with consumer spending recovering while investment indicators display varied results [9][10] Group 3: Investment Outlook - Fixed investment growth is expected to improve compared to December 2025, although the rebound may be limited due to ongoing pressures in the real estate sector [11][12] - The decline in special refinancing bonds and the gradual formation of investments from policy financial tools are anticipated to support infrastructure investment [11][12] - Overall, the investment landscape remains cautious, with manufacturing investment constrained by previous profit declines and equipment renewal cycles [11][12] Group 4: Shipping and Transportation Industry Insights - The oil shipping market is experiencing high demand, with VLCC spot rates reaching historical highs, leading to increased orders in the shipbuilding sector [19][20] - The shipping market's high demand is expected to positively influence the overall shipbuilding market, with oil tankers becoming the primary new order source [19][20] - The second-hand ship prices have been rising for 13 consecutive months, indicating a potential upward trend in overall ship price indices [19][20] Group 5: Export Data Analysis - The customs data for January and February shows a significant increase in exports, with a year-on-year growth of 21.8%, driven by the "Spring Festival displacement" and improved external demand [22][23] - Labor-intensive industries such as textiles and furniture have seen substantial export rebounds, reflecting the direct impact of the "Spring Festival displacement" [22][23] - The outlook for exports remains positive, with expectations of sustained growth throughout the year despite potential declines in March due to the "Spring Festival displacement" effects [22][23]

Core Viewpoint - The significant increase in exports in January-February is primarily driven by the "Spring Festival misalignment," contributing 8.4 percentage points, while external demand improvement accounts for an additional 6.8 percentage points [2][9][84] Export Analysis - The export growth in January-February reached 21.8% year-on-year, a substantial improvement of 15.2 percentage points compared to December 2025 [8][9] - The "Spring Festival misalignment" effect is expected to influence export readings, with a long impact period of up to one and a half months, leading to a low base effect from the previous year [2][9] - Labor-intensive industries, such as textiles and furniture, showed significant export rebounds, benefiting directly from the "Spring Festival misalignment" and improved demand from the U.S. [2][19][28] Country-Specific Insights - The recovery in U.S. demand and acceleration in emerging market demand are key drivers for export growth, with exports to the U.S. rebounding by 13.4 percentage points [3][28] - Exports to Africa and ASEAN also showed strong growth, reflecting the industrialization acceleration and domestic demand release in emerging economies [3][29] Import Analysis - Imports in January-February increased by 19.8% year-on-year, with processing trade imports rising significantly by 19.1 percentage points [3][35][71] - The import growth of mechanical and electrical products improved notably, with integrated circuits showing a year-on-year increase of 23.2% [3][71] Future Outlook - The "Spring Festival misalignment" may lead to a decrease in export readings for March, but the overall export growth for the year is expected to remain high due to stable external demand and improved inventory replenishment in the U.S. [4][84] - The strong export data for January-February reflects ongoing improvements in external demand, with expectations of continued high growth throughout the year [4][84] Regular Tracking - Both exports and imports showed strength in January-February, with consumer electronics and light industrial products experiencing notable rebounds [5][54] - Capital goods, intermediate goods, and energy resources also saw increased export growth, indicating a broad-based recovery [5][57]