中金研究 1 月 CPI 同比从 0.8% 回落至 0.2% ，主要受春节错位影响，食品和服务拖累较大。金价上涨和换新需求释放难抵服务拖累，核心 CPI 同比回落至 0.8% 。 PPI 环比涨幅走扩至 0.4% 、同比跌幅收窄至 -1.4% ，主要受国际有色涨价、化工光伏反内卷、 AI 需求推动，但中下游顺价压力仍大。基期轮换对通胀读数影 响不大，但分类和调查的调整关注新消费、新模式和新方法，权数结构变化反映消费结构从商品向服务、从生存型向发展享受型的变迁 [1] 。向前看， 2 月 CPI 同比有望回弹，但后续物价改善幅度还看内需修复速度。 点击小程序查看报告原文 春节错月拖累同比。 1月CPI同比由上月0.8%回落至0.2%，主要受春节错位影响。春节所在月份往往CPI环比较高，今年春节在2月，去年春节在1月，导致 1月食品和服务等价格在高基数、低新增下，同比由前月的1.1%和0.6%回落至-0.7%和0.1%[2]，分别拖累CPI同比0.3和0.2ppt。 1月CPI环比0.2%，弱于十年同期可比均值的0.6%[3]，但考虑到疫情后服务样本更具代表性的调整，这个环比与疫后春节相似的2024年1月相当（0 ...

2月11日，国家统计局公布2026年1月份CPI和PPI数据。1月份，居民消费需求持续恢复，居民消费价格 指数（CPI）环比上涨0.2%，同比上涨0.2%，扣除食品和能源价格的核心CPI同比上涨0.8%。受全国统 一大市场建设持续推进、部分行业需求增加及国际大宗商品价格传导等因素影响，工业生产者出厂价格 指数（PPI）环比上涨0.4%，同比下降1.4%。 核心CPI保持温和上涨 2026年1月，CPI同比增长0.2%，较前月下降0.6个百分点，居民消费价格增速小幅下行。不过，1月份核 心CPI温和上涨的态势没有改变。 国联民生（601456）首席经济学家陶川表示，核心CPI已经萌生出通胀"开门红"迹象。2026年1月核心 CPI环比上涨0.3%，创近6个月新高，其结构性走强印证年初居民消费需求逐步改善，为后续通胀温和 修复提供重要支撑。一方面，开年促消费政策效果持续显现，家用器具、日用杂品等价格延续上行，商 品消费稳步修复；另一方面，节前出行、文娱等服务需求逐步释放，带动旅游、影视、家政服务价格明 显升温，服务消费复苏势头更为强劲。随着2月正式进入春节消费旺季，涨价迹象有望进一步凸显。 中国民生银行首席经济学 ...

Group 1: CPI Analysis - January CPI year-on-year growth decreased to 0.2%, down from 0.8% in the previous month[1] - The late timing of the Spring Festival this year had a minimal impact on January CPI, unlike last year when it began at the end of January[1] - Food CPI remained flat month-on-month in January, with a year-on-year decline of 0.7%[6] Group 2: PPI Analysis - January PPI increased by 0.4% month-on-month, with the growth rate further expanding compared to the previous month[2] - Year-on-year PPI decreased by 1.4%, but the rate of decline has narrowed[2] - The prices of non-ferrous metals saw an increased month-on-month growth, while fuel and building materials prices fell[2] Group 3: Future Outlook - CPI is expected to rebound in February due to the seasonal effects of the Spring Festival[2] - PPI growth momentum has improved significantly, with expectations for continued recovery this year[2] - By 2026, CPI growth is projected to rebound, and PPI year-on-year growth is expected to turn positive, leading to a notable acceleration in nominal GDP growth compared to 2025[2] Group 4: Risks - There are risks associated with declining real estate demand and increasing external uncertainties[3]

| 分析师： [Tabl | 郭磊 | 分析师： | 贺骁束 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | e_Author] | SAC 执证号：S0260516070002 | | SAC 执证号：S0260517030003 | | | SFC CE.no: BNY419 | | | | | 021-38003572 | | 021-38003589 | | | guolei@gf.com.cn | | hexiaoshu@gf.com.cn | | | 请注意，贺骁束并非香港证券及期货事务监察委员会的注册持牌人，不可在香港从事受监管活动。 | | | [Table_Summary] 报告摘要： [Table_Page] 宏观经济研究报告 2026 年 2 月 2 日 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 广发宏观 高频数据下的 1 月经济：数量篇 中电联口径截至 1 月 22 日，纳入统计的发电集团燃煤电厂本月累计发电量同比增长 4.6%（去年 12 月同比为 -8.5%）。春节错位可能是关键影响因素之一，去年春节在 1 月底；而今年春节在 2 月中下旬，1 月企业普遍处 于正常开工 ...

广发证券 资深宏观分析师 贺骁束 hexiaoshu@ gf.com.cn 广发宏观郭磊团队 摘要 第一， 中电联口径截至1月22日，纳入统计的发电集团燃煤电厂本月累计发电量同比增长4.6%（去年12月同比为-8.5%）。 春节错位可能是关键影响因素之一，去年春节在1月底；而今年春节在2月中下旬，1月企业普遍处于正常开工状态。这也预示 着今年1月其他同比经济数据会相对比较有利。 第三， 重点企业粗钢产量环比回升，同比降幅收窄。截至1月20日，全国重点企业粗钢日均产量（月度日均，下同）环比回升 11.3% ， 同 比 回 落 4.5% （ 前 值 -8.8% ） ； 截 至 1 月 30 日 ， 主 要 钢 厂 螺 纹 钢 产 量 环 比 回 升 6.4% ， 同 比 回 升 1.0% （ 前 值-16.4%）；主要钢厂热轧卷板产量月环比回升1.5%，同比回落1.8%（前值-3.9%）。 第四， 实物工作量暂未起势，资金到位率徘徊。截至1月27日，样本工地资金到位率环比回落0.2pct，非房建、房建资金到位 率环比录得-0.4、0.4pct。截至1月28日，石油沥青开工率（月均值，下同）环比回落2.2pct，同 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview Automotive and Consumer Sector - Sales of trade-in related products remained weak in early January - From January 1 to January 11, national retail sales of passenger cars decreased by 32% year-on-year [1] - As of January 9, sales of eight categories of home appliances fell by 41.9% year-on-year [1] Production and Construction - Production remained stable in the second week of January, with attention on the impact of the upcoming Spring Festival on production growth - The utilization rate of coking capacity was 77.5%, slightly down from 77.7% previously - The apparent consumption of major steel products was 9.377 million tons this week, up from 9.071 million tons previously [2] Real Estate - New and second-hand housing transaction volumes were weak in the second week of January - From January 10 to January 16, the average daily transaction area of commercial housing in 30 major cities was 195,000 square meters, roughly unchanged from the previous week but down 43.3% year-on-year - In third-tier cities, the year-on-year decline was 50% [3] Trade and Exports - In the second week of January, shipping rates from Shanghai to the East Coast of the U.S. increased by 1.2%, while rates to the West Coast decreased by 1.1% - The export freight index (CCFI) rose by 1.3% week-on-week, while the SCFI fell by 4.4% - In the first ten days of January, South Korea's export value decreased by 2.3% year-on-year, and import value fell by 4.5% [4] Economic Forecast - GDP growth for December 2025 is estimated at 4.6% based on statistical bureau data, while January 2026 is estimated at 4.3% based on high-frequency data - The impact of the Spring Festival is expected to lead to a significant increase in year-on-year data in the future [4] Liquidity - In the second week of January, funding rates showed a marginal increase, with the average weekly DR007 rate at 1.51%, up from 1.45% - The net financing of government bonds was -233.64 billion yuan, while net financing of credit bonds was 49.04 billion yuan [5] Prices - In the second week of January, commodity prices showed divergence, with coking coal and coke prices decreasing by 2.1% and 1.8% respectively - Food prices for pork, eggs, vegetables, and fruits increased by 0.6%, 3.3%, 0.2%, and 1.9% respectively [6] U.S. High-Frequency Data - In the second week of January, U.S. consumer spending continued to grow - The Redbook commercial retail sales increased by 5.7% year-on-year, down from 7.1% previously - TSA checkpoint numbers increased by 3.8% year-on-year, up from 2.1% [7]

Industrial Sector - Weekly average pig iron production decreased, while the apparent demand for major steel products increased[4] - Cement clinker capacity utilization rate showed a seasonal decline this week[11] - The operating rate of float glass remained stable, with inventory levels decreasing[13] Real Estate - New home sales in 30 major cities decreased by 29.0% year-on-year as of January 15, with a slight improvement in growth rate compared to the previous week[21] - The second-hand housing listing price index fell by 1.39%, with the decline expanding by 0.53 percentage points compared to the previous value[25] Domestic Demand - Retail sales of home appliances decreased by 28.5% year-on-year as of January 2, although this was an improvement of 8.4 percentage points from the previous value[31] - The number of domestic flights decreased by 4.9% year-on-year, with a significant drop in growth rate compared to the previous week[30] External Demand - Port container throughput remained high, with a year-on-year increase of 7.3% as of January 11, although this was a slight decline from the previous value[39] - Export container freight rates increased this week, indicating resilience in external demand[39] Price Trends - The Nanhua Industrial Price Index fell by 0.4%, while the Nanhua Non-ferrous Metal Index rose by 0.9%[43] - The agricultural product wholesale price index decreased slightly, indicating mixed price trends in the agricultural sector[43]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of various industries in China, highlighting the impact of the Lunar New Year timing on production and sales, as well as the mixed performance across different sectors. Group 1: Power Generation and Industrial Activity - As of January 8, the cumulative power generation from coal-fired power plants increased by 2.6% year-on-year, contrasting with a decline of 8.5% in December [1][6] - The industrial operating rates show mixed trends, with steel production rates improving while chemical production rates decline. The average operating rate of 247 blast furnaces rose by 1.4 percentage points year-on-year [7][8] - The average daily crude steel production from key enterprises increased by 11.8% month-on-month but decreased by 4.1% year-on-year as of January 10 [2][9] Group 2: Construction and Funding - The funding availability rate for construction sites decreased by 0.3 percentage points, indicating a lack of momentum in physical work [11] - The asphalt operating rate fell to 26.3%, down 2.1 percentage points month-on-month, reflecting a decline in construction activity [11][12] Group 3: Consumer Behavior and Sales - The average daily subway ridership in major cities increased by 15.8% year-on-year due to the Lunar New Year timing, indicating a slight recovery in consumer mobility [3][12] - Real estate sales showed a significant decline, with a 38.6% drop in daily average transactions in major cities compared to the same period last year [15] - Retail sales of passenger vehicles fell by 32% year-on-year, with wholesale volumes down by 40% [16] Group 4: Industry-Specific Insights - The photovoltaic industry manager index decreased to 133.0 points, reflecting a slight decline in industry sentiment [13] - The BPI index for industrial products reached a near one-year high, with significant price increases in coal and chemical products [22][23] - Port container throughput increased by 6.3% year-on-year, indicating resilience in logistics despite fluctuations in shipping volumes to the U.S. [18][20]

Power Generation and Industrial Activity - As of January 8, the cumulative power generation from coal-fired power plants increased by 2.6% year-on-year, compared to a decrease of 8.5% in December[3] - The cumulative heating supply from coal-fired power plants rose by 5.1% year-on-year[3] - The operating rate of 247 blast furnaces nationwide increased by 1.4 percentage points year-on-year, reaching 79.0%[3] - The average daily crude steel output from key enterprises increased by 11.8% month-on-month but decreased by 4.1% year-on-year, averaging 1.997 million tons per day[4] Construction and Real Estate - The funding availability rate for construction sites decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 59.6% as of January 13[5] - The average daily transaction area of commercial housing in 30 major cities fell by 38.6% year-on-year from January 1 to January 16[8] - The year-on-year decline in second-hand housing agency subscriptions in 80 cities was 20.8%[10] Consumer Goods and Retail - Retail sales of passenger vehicles from January 1 to January 11 dropped by 32% year-on-year, with wholesale sales down by 40%[10] - The average wholesale price of pork increased by 2.7% to 18.1 yuan per kilogram as of January 16[16] - The production of household appliances showed a positive growth of 6% year-on-year, with air conditioner production up by 11%[11] Economic Indicators - The Business Price Index (BPI) rose by 3.8% to 933 points as of January 16, indicating a broad price increase across various sectors[13] - The photovoltaic manager index (SMI) decreased by 1.3 percentage points to 133.0 points, reflecting a decline in upstream manufacturing activity[7]

以下文章来源于申万宏源宏观 ，作者赵伟 屠强等 申万宏源宏观 . 申万宏源证券研究所 | 宏观研究部 作者： 赵伟 申万宏源证券首席经济学家 屠强 资深高级宏观分析师 联系人： 屠强、浦聚颖、耿佩璇 摘要 事件： 4月14日，海关公布3月进出口数据，出口（美元计价）同比12.4%、预期3.5%、前值2.3%；进口 （美元计价）同比-4.3%、预期-4.3%、前值-8.4%。 展望4月，关税冲击落地以及春节错位扰动消退后，出口增速读数或有所回落。 4月13日的港口货运吞吐 量同比下滑10.6%，显示"对等关税"压力已显现。此外，春节错位对出口的支撑作用将在4月消散。然 而，仍需密切关注"抢出口"现象。一方面，豁免清单的不确定性依然存在。4月10日公布的消费电子豁免 清单虽在短期内缓解了关税压力，但该豁免措施具有临时性，未来两个月或将出台新的特定税率。另一 方面，特朗普政府对新兴经济体的关税暂停措施也仅为90天，同样存在不确定性。在上述两个因素的共 同作用下，短期内，企业的"抢出口"行为将进一步加剧。 常规跟踪：出口大幅回升，进口继续走弱 出口商品：消费品出口分化， 3月自动数据处理设备（-20.6pct至2.3 ...