摩托车头部企业隆鑫通用（603766.SH）抛出大手笔增资计划。 11月19日，隆鑫通用公告，拟以不动产及现金方式向全资子公司重庆新隆鑫机电有限公司（以下简 称"新隆鑫机电"），合计增资不超过16.5亿元。 值得一提的是，新隆鑫机电于2025年4月才成立，目前尚未开展业务。11月14日，隆鑫通用刚公布剥离 两家非核心资产的计划。此次增资与资产剥离动作，均是公司深化"聚焦主业"战略的体现。 长江商报记者注意到，近年来，隆鑫通用聚焦自主品牌与全球化战略成效显著，业绩持续高速增长。 2025年前三季度，公司实现营业收入同比增长19.14%至145.57亿元，归母净利润同比增长75.45%至 15.77亿元。当期公司的归母净利润规模已经超过2024年全年水平。 拟16.5亿增资子公司 11月19日，隆鑫通用公告，根据公司管理规划，为适应公司未来业务发展及资产整合需要，公司以不动 产以及现金的方式向全资子公司新隆鑫机电合计增资不超过16.5亿元。 其中，非现金出资部分，主要为隆鑫通用以重庆市九龙坡区华龙大道99号公司B区厂区内的18项不动产 对应的评估结果，以2.9亿元的价格向新隆鑫机电进行增资。根据中联评估公司评估的 ...

Core Viewpoint - Jianghehui, a major shareholder of Qianli Technology, plans to reduce its stake by up to 90.42 million shares, representing 2% of the company's total share capital, through block trading to attract potential quality investors [1][2]. Group 1: Shareholder Reduction Plan - Jianghehui holds 900 million shares of Qianli Technology, accounting for 19.91% of the total share capital [1]. - The reduction plan will be implemented within three months after the announcement, starting 15 trading days post-disclosure [1]. - Jianghehui will not conduct any reductions through centralized bidding during this period [1]. Group 2: Company Financial Performance - Qianli Technology reported a total revenue of 6.946 billion yuan for the first three quarters of the year, a year-on-year increase of 44.27% [3]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the same period was 53.28 million yuan, up 33.37% year-on-year, while the non-recurring net profit showed a loss of 176 million yuan [3]. - The increase in net profit is attributed to higher government subsidies and foreign exchange gains [3]. Group 3: Sales and Production Data - In the first ten months of the year, Qianli Technology sold a total of 81,053 vehicles, marking a year-on-year growth of 97.97% [3]. - The company sold 2,090 new energy vehicles in October, a year-on-year increase of 15.34%, with cumulative sales of 28,577 new energy vehicles for the year, up 62.07% [3]. - The total vehicle production for the same period was 6,517 units [3].

Core Viewpoint - Longxin General is transitioning from OEM to developing its own brands, focusing on the motorcycle and general machinery sectors, with a strong emphasis on global expansion and product quality improvement through partnerships, particularly with BMW [14][15][16]. Group 1: Business Overview - Longxin General has diversified its product lines, including motorcycles, engines, ATVs, and general machinery, with a focus on the "motorcycle + general machinery" business model [3][20]. - The company aims for its motorcycle and general machinery business revenues to account for 75% and 21% of total revenue, respectively, by 2024 [3][22]. - The company has undergone a significant ownership change, with the new major shareholder being Zongshen New Manufacturing, which is expected to resolve industry competition issues [20][28]. Group 2: Market Expansion - The company is aggressively expanding its high-end motorcycle brand, Wujing, into European and South American markets, where it has already established brand recognition, particularly in Spain with a market share exceeding 5% [5][42]. - The global market for ATVs is projected to reach $15 billion by 2028, with Longxin General aiming to enhance its market share by leveraging its engine advantages [6][7]. - The company has seen a rise in motorcycle engine exports, supported by the increasing demand for Chinese motorcycles in international markets [9][43]. Group 3: Financial Performance - Longxin General's revenue has shown a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10.2% from 2015 to 2024, with a significant recovery expected in 2024, driven by motorcycle exports and the recovery of general machinery business [34]. - The company's net profit is projected to increase by 92.3% in 2024, primarily due to reduced impairment losses and growth in high-end motorcycle sales [34][35]. - The gross margin is expected to improve to 17.6% in 2024, reflecting a recovery in profitability as the company reduces impairment losses and increases the share of high-margin products [35][40]. Group 4: Product Development - Longxin General has developed a comprehensive product matrix, including various types of motorcycles, engines, and general machinery, with a focus on high-performance and cost-effective products [25][31]. - The company has established stable partnerships with leading global manufacturers, enhancing its product quality and supply chain management capabilities [15][31]. - The product offerings include a wide range of motorcycles, from high-end models to ATVs, with a focus on meeting diverse market demands [25][26]. Group 5: Competitive Landscape - The global motorcycle market is dominated by Japanese and Indian brands, with Longxin General aiming to increase its market share through strategic international expansion [44][46]. - The company is positioned to benefit from the growing demand for motorcycles in emerging markets, particularly in South America and Southeast Asia, where it has identified significant growth opportunities [67][70]. - Longxin General's strategy includes a "1+N" market approach, focusing on deepening its presence in one market before expanding to similar markets, which is expected to enhance its competitive position [5][42].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that Longxin General (603766.SH) is rated "outperform" by Guosen Securities due to its strong position in the motorcycle and general machinery sectors and its global expansion efforts [1] - Longxin General is making significant strides in the motorcycle market, particularly with its Wujie motorcycle brand entering European and South American markets [1] - The all-terrain vehicle segment is expected to maintain rapid growth, contributing positively to the company's overall performance [1] Group 2 - The overseas expansion of motorcycle engines is anticipated to boost export revenue, enhancing the company's financial outlook [1] - The general machinery products are characterized by high cost-performance ratios, suggesting a potential recovery in business operations [1]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform the Market" rating for the company, with a reasonable valuation range of 15.80 to 16.70 CNY per share, indicating a potential upside of 10% to 17% from the current price of 13.68 CNY [7][4]. Core Insights - The company is transitioning from OEM to developing its own brands, particularly focusing on the high-end motorcycle brand "Wujin" and expanding into global markets, especially Europe and South America [16][19]. - The motorcycle and general machinery sectors are the main business areas, with motorcycle revenue expected to grow significantly, while general machinery is anticipated to recover [22][21]. - The company has undergone a significant restructuring, with a new major shareholder, which is expected to stabilize operations and enhance profitability [33][21]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company has a diversified product line including motorcycles, engines, ATVs, and general machinery, with a strong focus on the "motorcycle + general machinery" business model [21][30]. - The company aims to become a global motorcycle enterprise, with motorcycle and general machinery revenues projected to account for 75% and 21% of total revenue, respectively, by 2024 [21][4]. Market Expansion - The "Wujin" motorcycle brand is making significant inroads into the European and South American markets, with a market share exceeding 5% in Spain and growing brand recognition in Italy and other regions [2][4]. - The global ATV market is expected to grow to 15 billion USD by 2028, and the company is leveraging its engine technology to enhance its product offerings in this segment [2][4]. Financial Performance - The company forecasts substantial revenue growth, with expected revenues of 19.69 billion CNY in 2025, representing a 17.1% increase from the previous year [5]. - Net profit is projected to reach 1.91 billion CNY in 2025, reflecting a 70.2% year-on-year growth, with earnings per share expected to increase to 0.93 CNY [5][4]. Valuation and Profitability - The report anticipates a recovery in profitability, with net profit margins improving from 2.8% in 2021 to 6.3% in 2024, driven by reduced impairment losses and increased sales of high-end motorcycles [44][42]. - The company's valuation metrics indicate a PE ratio of 15.4 in 2025, suggesting a favorable investment opportunity compared to historical averages [5][4].

宏观经济 | 动态跟踪 出口转跌非趋势，资本品出口潜力仍在 10 月进出口点评 研究结论 | 孙国翔 | 执业证书编号：S0860523080009 | | --- | --- | | | sunguoxiang@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 孙金霞 | 执业证书编号：S0860515070001 | | | sunjinxia@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 王仲尧 | 执业证书编号：S0860518050001 | | | 香港证监会牌照：BQJ932 | | --- | --- | | | wangzhongyao1@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 陈至奕 | 执业证书编号：S0860519090001 | | | 香港证监会牌照：BUK982 | | | chenzhiyi@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 降息交易减速，方向尚未改变：——2025 | 2025-11-02 | | --- | --- | | 年 ...

Export Performance - In October, China's exports fell by 1.1% year-on-year, significantly lower than the expected 3.2% and previous month's 8.3%[1] - The two-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for exports, excluding base effects, was 5.5%, indicating stable growth compared to 5.3% in September and a central tendency of 6.1% from April to September[2] - October's month-on-month export growth was -7.0%, weaker than the seasonal average of -3.8% from 2015 to 2024, influenced by the timing of new consumer electronics releases[2] Import Trends - China's imports in October grew by only 1.0%, the lowest in five months, falling short of the expected 4.1%[6] - The decline in imports is attributed to weakened domestic demand, with the manufacturing PMI hitting a new low[6] - Key imports such as coal, natural gas, and refined oil saw significant declines, contributing to the overall import slowdown[6] Trade Balance - Despite the drop in exports, the trade surplus remained high at $90 billion in October, indicating resilience in trade dynamics[3] - The expected export recovery in November and December is anticipated to support the trade surplus, providing positive support for economic growth[3] Sectoral Insights - Exports to the U.S. decreased by 25.2%, but the decline was less severe than in previous months, while exports to the EU and South Korea also saw significant drops due to high base effects[4] - In terms of products, integrated circuits and automotive exports remained strong, while mobile phone exports declined by 9.0% year-on-year[5]

Export Data Analysis - In October, exports (in USD) decreased by 1.1% year-on-year, significantly lower than the expected 3.2% and previous value of 8.3%[1] - The month-on-month decline was 7.1%, which is worse than the seasonal average decline of 3.2%[2] - Exports to emerging markets like ASEAN and Africa saw notable declines, with ASEAN down 4.7 percentage points to 11% and Africa down 46.1 percentage points to 10.5%[2] Supply Chain and Production Factors - The drop in exports is attributed more to short-term supply disruptions rather than a significant decline in external demand[2] - A reduction of 3 working days in October compared to the previous month exacerbated supply issues, particularly following the "production rush" phenomenon in September[2] - High-frequency export chain production indicators fell to -0.2%, aligning with the October export growth rate of -1.1%[2] Import Data Insights - Imports (in USD) also fell, with a year-on-year decrease of 6.4% to 1% in October, down from a previous value of 7.4%[1] - Processing trade imports saw a significant drop from 12% in September to 4.6% in October, indicating substantial supply disruptions[3] Future Outlook - With the easing of US-China trade tensions and the expected recovery in supply, November exports are anticipated to rebound[4] - The export performance to developed economies is showing divergence, with exports to the US improving while those to the EU and UK are declining[4] - Emerging markets are expected to continue increasing their demand for intermediate and capital goods, supporting resilience in China's exports[4]

Core Viewpoints - October export decline is not primarily due to weakening external demand, but rather short-term supply disruptions, which are now dissipating [3][10][65] - The significant drop in exports in October is influenced by a high base effect and a reduction in working days, with a month-on-month decline of 7.1% compared to a seasonal expectation of 3.2% [3][10][65] - Exports to emerging economies, such as ASEAN and Africa, have seen a notable slowdown, while demand from countries like Vietnam and Thailand has shown improvement [3][10][11] Import Analysis - October imports decreased by 6.4% year-on-year to 1%, reflecting supply disruptions, particularly in processing trade, which fell from 12% in September to 4.6% in October [4][23][66] - The surge in port freight volumes in late October indicates that supply disruptions are easing, with exports from countries like Vietnam and South Korea showing significant recovery [4][27][66] Future Outlook - With the easing of US-China trade tensions and the recovery of supply chains, November export growth is expected to rebound [5][67] - The differentiation in export performance to developed economies, particularly a recovery in exports to the US, suggests potential for continued growth in exports [5][67] Regular Tracking - In October, both exports and imports saw declines, with consumer electronics and light industrial products experiencing significant drops in export growth [6][68] - Capital goods exports showed mixed results, with general machinery and medical instruments declining, while shipbuilding exports increased [6][42][68] - Import growth for mechanical and electrical products and bulk commodities also decreased, with notable declines in automatic data processing equipment [6][54][68]

Group 1: Export Data Overview - October exports decreased by 1.1% year-on-year, significantly lower than the expected 3.2% and previous value of 8.3%[1] - The month-on-month decline in exports was 7.1%, which is worse than the seasonal average decline of 3.2%[2] - Exports to emerging markets like ASEAN and Africa saw significant drops, with ASEAN exports down 4.7 percentage points to 11% and African exports down 46.1 percentage points to 10.5%[2] Group 2: Import Data Overview - October imports increased by 1% year-on-year, below the expected 4.1% and previous value of 7.4%[1] - The month-on-month decline in imports was 6.4 percentage points, reflecting supply disruptions[3] - Processing trade imports fell from 12% in September to 4.6% in October, indicating significant supply disturbances[3] Group 3: Supply Chain and Economic Factors - The decline in exports is attributed more to short-term supply disruptions rather than weakening external demand[2] - A reduction in working days in October (down 3 days compared to the previous month) exacerbated supply issues, particularly following the National Day holiday[2] - High-frequency export chain production indicators fell to -0.2%, aligning with the overall export decline of -1.1%[2] Group 4: Future Outlook - With easing US-China trade tensions and the expected recovery in supply, November exports are anticipated to rebound[4] - Exports to developed economies are showing a mixed performance, with US exports improving while those to the EU and UK are declining[4] - The ongoing industrialization and urbanization in emerging markets are expected to drive demand for intermediate and capital goods imports from China[4]