Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Synchronize with the market - A" for the textile and apparel industry [1]. Core Insights - The textile and apparel industry has shown mixed performance in recent months, with a slight increase in textile exports but a decline in clothing exports. Specifically, from January to August 2025, China's textile yarn, fabric, and products exports increased by 1.6%, while clothing and accessories exports decreased by 1.7% [2][18]. - Major Taiwanese textile manufacturers reported a decline in revenue for August 2025, with significant year-on-year decreases for companies like Yuanyuan Group and Laiyixing, while some companies like Laiyixing still showed growth in the first eight months of the year [19][20]. Summary by Sections 1. Recent Observations - Taiwanese textile manufacturers reported a general decline in revenue for August 2025, with Yuanyuan Group's revenue down by 9.7% year-on-year, and Laiyixing down by 23.11% [19][20]. 2. Market Performance - The SW textile and apparel sector rose by 0.67% this week, lagging behind the SW light industry sector, which increased by 1.88% [20][21]. - The PE-TTM for SW textile manufacturing is 22.05 times, while for SW apparel and home textiles, it is 30.57 times, indicating varying levels of valuation across sub-sectors [24]. 3. Industry Data Tracking - From January to August 2025, China's textile and apparel exports totaled $945.13 billion and $1,027.61 billion, respectively, with a slight increase in textile exports and a decrease in clothing exports [48]. - The domestic retail sales in July 2025 reached 3.88 trillion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 3.7% [55]. 4. Industry News - Stone Island opened a new flagship store in Hangzhou, showcasing its commitment to innovation and sustainability [67][68]. - Jiangnan Buyi Group reported a 4.6% increase in revenue for the fiscal year ending June 30, 2025, driven by online sales growth and an expansion of its offline store network [70][71].

Core Insights - Zhangjiagang's foreign trade import and export scale reached 156.94 billion yuan in the first seven months of the year, with exports amounting to 89.84 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 10.2% [1] Trade Partners - ASEAN remains the largest trading partner of Zhangjiagang, with a total trade value of 25.69 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 16%, accounting for 16.4% of the total trade [1] - Exports to ASEAN reached 18.81 billion yuan, up 19.5%, while imports were 6.88 billion yuan, growing by 7.3% [1] - Trade with Belt and Road countries totaled 88.29 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 6.6% [1] Product Categories - Major export products such as electromechanical products, textiles, and steel maintained double-digit growth [1] - Exports of electromechanical products amounted to 28.96 billion yuan, increasing by 16.8%, representing 32.2% of the total export value [1] - Specific product exports included general machinery (0.99 billion yuan, +50.3%), packaging machinery (0.88 billion yuan, +39.9%), and lithium-ion batteries (0.70 billion yuan, +206.5%) [1] - Textile yarns, fabrics, and related products exported totaled 15.39 billion yuan, with a growth of 10% [1] - Exports of steel, clothing, and electric passenger vehicles were 13.6 billion yuan, 10.28 billion yuan, and 6.29 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth of 13.4%, 4.1%, and 2% respectively [1]

Overall Trade Performance - In the first half of 2025, China's total import and export volume showed a slight increase, with a total of approximately $30,321 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 1.8% [3] - Exports reached $18,090 billion, growing by 5.9%, while imports decreased by 3.8% to $12,231 billion, resulting in a trade surplus of $5,859 billion, which is a 34.7% increase [3][4] - Private enterprises contributed significantly to foreign trade, accounting for 65.7% of total exports and 108.2% of the trade surplus in the first half of the year [3][4] Private Enterprises - Private enterprises have shown resilience in the face of challenges, minimizing the overall impact of the US-China trade war [5] - Exports to Africa and ASEAN increased by 21.6% and 9.6%, respectively, indicating successful market diversification efforts [5] - Despite maintaining a high export share of over 66%, private enterprises experienced a slowdown in growth rates in May and June compared to national averages, highlighting emerging challenges [6] Export Structure Changes - The export structure has shifted towards high-tech and high-value-added products, with mechanical and electrical products accounting for 60% of total exports, growing by 8.2% [6][7] - High-tech product exports increased by 6.4%, with integrated circuits seeing an 18.9% growth, reflecting advancements in China's manufacturing capabilities [7] - Traditional industries, particularly light manufacturing, faced significant declines, with apparel exports down by 0.2% and footwear exports down by 7.2% [8] Challenges in Traditional Industries - The light industry, heavily reliant on the US market, is particularly sensitive to tariff impacts, with significant declines in exports of toys, furniture, and other products [8] - The energy and raw materials sectors also saw declines, with steel exports down by 2% and coal exports down by 9.9%, attributed to global economic weakness and overcapacity in China [9] Outlook for the Second Half of 2025 - Despite a more favorable tariff environment, uncertainties in the global economy and geopolitical tensions pose significant challenges for foreign trade [11] - The focus will need to be on enhancing the quality and structure of exports while maintaining stable growth in volume [11] - Monitoring the operational status of private enterprises and optimizing the business environment will be crucial for sustaining high-tech industry advantages [11]

Export Data - In June, exports (in USD) increased by 5.8% year-on-year, exceeding the expected 3.6% and the previous value of 4.8%[7] - The rise in exports was primarily due to a shift in the "export grabbing" focus from emerging markets to the United States[2] - Exports to the US surged by 18.4% compared to a decline of 16.0% in the previous month, indicating a significant recovery[2] Import Data - Imports (in USD) rose by 1.1% year-on-year, surpassing the expected -0.6% and the previous value of -3.4%[7] - The increase in imports was mainly driven by a rebound in bulk commodity imports, including iron ore (+12.4% to 8.5%) and crude oil (+8.2% to 7.4%)[5] Market Trends - The "export grabbing" phenomenon towards emerging countries is nearing its end, while the trend towards the US is gaining momentum[2] - The export growth to emerging markets, particularly Latin America and India, continued to decline, with exports to Latin America dropping by 4.5 percentage points to -2.0%[2] - The export of midstream manufacturing goods to emerging economies decreased by 0.6 percentage points to 5.7%[3] Future Outlook - Exports are expected to maintain resilience in July due to continued "export grabbing" towards the US, but this may end in August, leading to potential negative impacts from demand exhaustion[3] - Key indicators for future export performance include a continued rise in processing trade imports and high prices for Yiwu small commodities[3]

Core Viewpoint - The phenomenon of "export grabbing" towards emerging countries is nearing its end, while "export grabbing" towards the United States is beginning to take effect [2][7][55] Export Data Analysis - In June, exports increased by 5.8% year-on-year, up 1.0 percentage point from May, driven by a shift in the main subjects of "export grabbing" [2][7][55] - Exports to emerging countries, particularly Latin America and India, continued to decline, while exports to the United States saw a significant rebound of 18.4% [2][5][55] - The increase in exports to the U.S. was primarily in consumer electronics and furniture, reflecting a resurgence in orders from the U.S. following negotiations in mid-May [2][13][55] Future Outlook - Exports are expected to maintain resilience in July due to continued "export grabbing" towards the U.S., but this may end in August, leading to potential negative impacts from demand exhaustion [3][25][26][56] - The necessity for "export grabbing" towards emerging countries is expected to decrease as the tariff suspension period ends [3][25][26] Regular Tracking of Exports and Imports - Consumer goods exports, including consumer electronics and real estate chain products, showed an upward trend in June [4][29][57] - Capital goods and intermediate goods exports exhibited mixed growth, with significant declines in some categories like shipbuilding and automotive parts, while fertilizers saw a notable increase [4][32][57] - Imports also rebounded in June, primarily driven by an increase in bulk commodity imports, indicating a recovery in domestic investment demand [5][44][58]

Core Viewpoint - The role of "export grabbing" is shifting from emerging markets to the U.S. [3][51] - In May, exports fell year-on-year due to a decline in "export grabbing" and a high base effect from the previous year, with a decrease of 3.3 percentage points to 4.8% [3][51] - Exports to ASEAN and India showed significant declines, indicating a retreat from previous "export grabbing" trends in emerging economies [3][51] Export Analysis - The old clues of "export grabbing" through emerging countries are declining, with midstream manufacturing exports showing a marginal decrease and energy resource exports declining significantly [3][15] - In May, exports of midstream manufacturing and energy resources fell from 7.4% and 1.3% in April to 6.3% and -3.5%, respectively [3][15] - There are emerging signs of "export grabbing" towards the U.S., with specific products like toys and clothing showing recovery in export growth [4][19] Future Outlook - In June, the focus is expected to shift from "export grabbing" in emerging economies to the U.S., with overall export growth likely to receive some support [4][27] - Three indicators suggest continued "export grabbing": positive year-on-year growth in processing trade imports, a surge in container bookings from the U.S., and rising prices for small commodities from Yiwu [4][27] Import Analysis - In May, import growth fell by 3.4% year-on-year, primarily due to a decline in bulk commodity imports [6][54] - Specific imports such as copper, crude oil, and iron ore showed significant declines, reflecting a notable drop in domestic investment demand, particularly in traditional infrastructure [6][54] - Mechanical and electrical product imports saw a slight recovery, increasing by 0.1 percentage points to 5.5% [6][54] Regional Export Trends - Exports to major economies showed a general decline, with exports to the U.S. dropping significantly [5][38] - Exports to non-U.S. developed countries, such as the UK and the EU, saw some recovery, while exports to emerging economies also declined [5][38] - Notably, exports to Africa increased, contrasting with declines in exports to Latin America and ASEAN [5][38]

Core Viewpoint - In April 2025, China's exports grew by 8.1% year-on-year, exceeding the 5.8% growth in the first quarter, despite the impact of new U.S. tariffs implemented on April 2 [2][6] Export Performance Analysis - The resilience in exports can be attributed to a 21.0% year-on-year decline in exports to the U.S., which, while significant, was better than expected. Exports to ASEAN, India, Africa, and Latin America saw year-on-year growth rates of 20.8%, 21.7%, 25.3%, and 17.3%, respectively, effectively offsetting the decline [2][8][10] - Major export categories showed mixed results, with labor-intensive products like textiles, bags, clothing, and toys experiencing a combined year-on-year decline of 0.8%. Electronics, particularly mobile phones, were significantly affected by tariffs, with year-on-year declines of 21.4% for phones and 1.7% for automatic data processing equipment. Home appliances and furniture also saw low growth rates of -2.9% and -7.8%, respectively. However, automotive exports increased slightly by 4.4%, surpassing the first quarter's 2.2% [2][12][15][16] Competitive Advantage of Chinese Manufacturing - April's export data highlighted the competitiveness and resilience of "Made in China" products. China's manufacturing sector has both scale and efficiency advantages, as evidenced by its global manufacturing value added share of approximately 31% in 2021, compared to the U.S. at 16% and Japan at 6%. The Competitive Industrial Performance (CIP) index shows China ranked second globally in 2021, up from 35th in 1990 [3][17] Caution on Tariff Impact - There is a need for vigilance regarding the impact of tariffs, as the effects may become more pronounced in the coming months. Historical data from 2018 indicates that significant tariff implementations led to delayed impacts on export growth, with a notable decline occurring several months after tariffs were enacted. The April PMI data showed a 4.3-point month-on-month decline in export orders, particularly in textiles, chemicals, and midstream equipment manufacturing, indicating a potential lag in the transmission from orders to delivery [3][18][19] Economic Growth Dynamics - The relationship between growth momentum and stabilization efforts is likened to a seesaw, with current economic conditions suggesting a continued focus on counter-cyclical policies. Despite a strong actual growth rate in the first quarter, nominal growth remains low, with tax revenue and profits from large enterprises showing declines. The government is expected to leverage recent policy measures to stimulate domestic demand and address the ongoing pressures from tariffs [4][20]

Core Insights - China's foreign trade maintained a stable growth trend in the first four months of the year, with a total import and export value of 14.14 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.4% [4][9] - In April, the total value of goods trade reached 3.84 trillion yuan, growing by 5.6%, with exports at 2.27 trillion yuan, up 9.3%, and imports at 1.57 trillion yuan, increasing by 0.8% [3][9] Trade Performance - Exports in April exceeded market expectations, driven by factors such as "export grabbing" in markets outside the U.S., resilient external demand, and the timing of tariff policies [5][10] - The export growth rate in April was 8.1% in dollar terms, despite a significant decline in exports to the U.S. by 21.0%, which pulled down the overall export growth by approximately 3 percentage points [5][10] Key Trade Partners - ASEAN and the EU emerged as China's largest and second-largest trading partners, with exports to ASEAN growing by 12.6% and to the EU by 6.1%, both significantly higher than the overall foreign trade growth rate [9][10] - In April, exports to ASEAN surged by 20.8%, which helped offset the decline in exports to the U.S. [10] Sector Performance - Labor-intensive products showed low growth, with a combined monthly year-on-year change of -0.8%, while exports of general machinery and equipment, ships, and integrated circuits saw significant increases of 17.0%, 36.1%, and 20.2% respectively [6][9] Private Sector Contribution - The share of private enterprises in foreign trade continued to rise, accounting for 56.9% of total trade value in the first four months, with exports from private enterprises growing by 8.1% [10]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - In April 2025, China's exports decreased but exceeded market expectations due to factors such as the overseas rush for trans - shipment. Imports were better than expected, and the trade surplus remained large. In the future, exports may be affected by US high - tariff policies, but there is still support from exports to ASEAN and Belt and Road countries. Import growth is expected to pick up, and net exports will support the economy in the short term [5][7] 3. Summary by Related Catalog 3.1 Overall Import and Export - In April, the total import and export volume (in US dollars) was 535.205 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 0.4 percentage points. The top trading partners were ASEAN (trade volume of 93.5 billion, up 13.61% year - on - year, accounting for 17.47%), the EU (66.8 billion, down 0.57%, 12.47%), the US (45.6 billion, down 19.17%, 8.52%), South Korea (28.2 billion, up 3.73%, 5.28%), and Japan (27.3 billion, up 4.98%, 5.11%) [5] 3.2 Exports - In April, exports were 315.692 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 8.1%, far exceeding expectations. The top export destinations were ASEAN (export volume of 60.4 billion, up 20.8%, accounting for 19.12%), the EU (46.7 billion, up 8.27%, 14.8%), the US (33 billion, down 21.03%, 10.46%), Japan (13.3 billion, up 7.77%, 4.21%), and South Korea (12.7 billion, down 0.3%, 4.03%). The main export products were mechanical and electrical products (accounting for 60.4%, up 10.1%), among which electronic components accounted for 13.66% [6] 3.3 Imports - In April, imports were 219.512 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 0.2%, with the decline narrowing by 4.1 percentage points, better than expected. The top import sources were ASEAN (import volume of 33.2 billion, up 2.5%, accounting for 15.11%), the EU (20 billion, down 16.46%, 9.13%), Chinese Taipei (19.7 billion, up 12.73%, 8.98%), South Korea (15.5 billion, up 7.28%, 7.08%), Japan (14 billion, up 2.47%, 6.39%), and the US (12.6 billion, down 13.83%, 5.72%). The main import products were mechanical and electrical products (accounting for 38.99%, up 5.4%), among which integrated circuits accounted for 40.68% [6] 3.4 Trade Balance - The trade surplus was 96.81 billion US dollars, up 33.61% year - on - year, higher than expected. The largest trade surplus was in automobiles (9.164 billion, up 1.508 billion), and the largest trade deficits were in crude oil (25.3 billion, down 3 billion), integrated circuits (19.2 billion, up 2.6 billion), and agricultural products (7.2 billion, up 2.6 billion) [6][7]

以下文章来源于申万宏源宏观 ，作者赵伟 屠强等 申万宏源宏观 . 申万宏源证券研究所 | 宏观研究部 作者： 赵伟 申万宏源证券首席经济学家 屠强 资深高级宏观分析师 联系人： 屠强、浦聚颖、耿佩璇 摘要 事件： 4月14日，海关公布3月进出口数据，出口（美元计价）同比12.4%、预期3.5%、前值2.3%；进口 （美元计价）同比-4.3%、预期-4.3%、前值-8.4%。 展望4月，关税冲击落地以及春节错位扰动消退后，出口增速读数或有所回落。 4月13日的港口货运吞吐 量同比下滑10.6%，显示"对等关税"压力已显现。此外，春节错位对出口的支撑作用将在4月消散。然 而，仍需密切关注"抢出口"现象。一方面，豁免清单的不确定性依然存在。4月10日公布的消费电子豁免 清单虽在短期内缓解了关税压力，但该豁免措施具有临时性，未来两个月或将出台新的特定税率。另一 方面，特朗普政府对新兴经济体的关税暂停措施也仅为90天，同样存在不确定性。在上述两个因素的共 同作用下，短期内，企业的"抢出口"行为将进一步加剧。 常规跟踪：出口大幅回升，进口继续走弱 出口商品：消费品出口分化， 3月自动数据处理设备（-20.6pct至2.3 ...