证券研究报告 | 策略报告 2025 年 11 月 24 日 12 月行业配置关注：产能出清与景气改善的线索 ——行业比较与配置系列（2025 年 12 月） 过去一个月市场在美联储降息预期降温、AI 泡沫担忧、涨价行情持续演绎等多重 因素影响下震荡下行，周期板块及防御行业表现较好，TMT、机械等行业跌幅居 前。展望 12 月份，行业配置重点关注"库存低位企稳+产能结构优化+景气持续 改善"的领域。结合中观景气、盈利能力、筹码分布、估值、交易、周期阶段和 赛道价值等多个维度，本期推荐关注非银、电力设备（电池、逆变器、风电设备）、 国防军工、煤炭、基础化工、钢铁等。 【本期关注】产能出清与景气改善的线索 风险提示：产业扶持度不及预期，宏观经济波动。 定期报告 相关报告 《11 月行业配置关注：三季报 业绩与"十五五"规划指引》 《10 月行业配置关注：高景气 持续与困境反转的线索》 《9 月行业配置关注：美联储降 息与 PPI 止跌的交易线索》 《8 月行业配置关注：反内卷与 中报业绩改善的线索》 《7 月行业配置关注：哪些领域 中报业绩有望高增或边际改善》 《A 股盈利有望止跌回升，配置 聚焦三条线索——A ...

Group 1: Market Overview - Recent market pullback primarily due to internal and external expectation adjustments, with the Hang Seng Index down 4.5% from its recent peak, compared to a 2.3% decline in the CSI 300[3] - External factors, such as rising US Treasury yields (up to 4.4%) and a strengthening US dollar (breaking the 100 mark), have exerted greater pressure on Hong Kong stocks compared to A-shares[5] - Southbound capital inflow surged to a net inflow of HKD 59 billion, marking the highest weekly inflow since April 11, 2025[6] Group 2: Investment Strategy - Emphasis on sectors with improving sentiment and low valuations, particularly in technology, gaming, and e-commerce leaders[2] - Recommended to focus on stocks with reasonable valuations and improving fundamentals, especially in the innovative pharmaceutical and non-bank financial sectors[7] - The report suggests a tactical approach centered around upcoming mid-year earnings reports, with a focus on companies expected to deliver strong earnings[7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the optional consumption industry [6] Core Insights - The report highlights a focus on performance realization and improvement in market conditions as annual reports are being disclosed [2] - The optional consumption sector has shown varied performance, with specific segments like tourism benefiting from the Qingming holiday, while others like education and professional chains have seen declines [12][14] Summary by Sections Market Performance - For the week of March 24-28, 2025, the performance of the Shenwan retail, social services, and beauty care sectors was -2.05%, -1.96%, and -1.64% respectively, ranking them 23rd, 20th, and 16th among 31 primary industries [12][14] - The Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 0.40%, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.75%, and the CSI 300 Index remained flat at +0.01% [12] Key Events and Announcements - Beauty Care: - Juzhibio reported a revenue of 5.539 billion yuan in 2024, up 57.2% year-on-year, with a net profit of 2.152 billion yuan, a 46.5% increase [21] - Kefu Mei achieved a revenue of 4.54 billion yuan, growing 62.9% year-on-year [21] - Maogeping's revenue reached 3.885 billion yuan, a 34.6% increase, with a gross margin of 84.4% [21] - Retail: - Pop Mart's revenue surpassed 10 billion yuan for the first time in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 106.9% [20] - Chinagoods platform registered over 4.8 million buyers, and Yiwu International Trade City saw a 12.15% increase in daily foot traffic [22] - Social Services: - Meixue Ice City reported a revenue of 24.829 billion yuan, up 22.3% year-on-year, with a net profit of 4.454 billion yuan, a 39.8% increase [24] - Bawang Tea Ji submitted an IPO application, reporting a GMV of 29.5 billion yuan and revenue of 12.405 billion yuan in 2024 [25]