Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company has shown significant growth in operating performance in the first half of 2025, with optimistic expectations for annual sales and performance due to the launch of several key models in the second half of the year [2] Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2025 is projected to be 179,204 million RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 34.0% [11] - Gross profit is expected to reach 51,810 million RMB in 2025, with a stable gross margin of 16.4% [12] - The net profit for 2025 is estimated at 16,299 million RMB, reflecting a slight decrease of 1% compared to the previous year [11] - The company aims for total sales of 3 million vehicles in 2025, supported by the launch of multiple new models [12] Sales Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company sold 1.409 million vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 47% [12] - New energy vehicle sales reached 725,000 units, with pure electric vehicles at 511,000 units and plug-in hybrids at 214,000 units, marking increases of 173% and 61% respectively [12] - The company’s brands showed strong performance, with the Geely brand selling 1.164 million units (up 57%), Lynk & Co selling 154,000 units (up 22%), and Zeekr selling 91,000 units (up 3%) [12] Valuation - The target price for the company is set at 29.43 HKD, based on a PE ratio of 16.6 times for 2025 [12] - The company’s current market capitalization is approximately 191,105 million HKD [7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is the launch of the Geely Galaxy brand's Xingyao 8 model, which offers dual power versions and is priced between 125,800 to 165,800 yuan [1][3] - The entry price of the new model has decreased by 14,000 yuan compared to its pre-sale price, emphasizing that pricing is determined by user preferences rather than market forces [3] - Geely Galaxy aims to cover the mainstream price range of 100,000 to 200,000 yuan with its product matrix and plans to introduce more new products to strengthen its market position [3] Group 2 - Geely's strategy for brand elevation focuses on enhancing product value through technological advancements rather than merely increasing prices [5] - The growth of the Galaxy brand is attributed to the "Smart Geely 2025" strategy, which includes core technologies like the Xingrui Smart Computing Center and Shendun Battery System [5] - The Chinese new energy vehicle market is becoming increasingly competitive, with domestic brands facing challenges from joint ventures leveraging local suppliers and R&D capabilities [5] Group 3 - The Xingyao 8 features a unique Chinese luxury design, with specific aesthetic elements inspired by traditional Chinese culture [8] - The interior includes high-end features such as "first-class cotton candy SPA seats" and VIP electric executive seats, providing ample comfort and space [10][12] - The vehicle is equipped with advanced safety and intelligent driving systems, including the Qianli Haohan intelligent safety assistance system, capable of high-speed NOA driving assistance [14]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [6][4][32] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve significant revenue growth in 2024, with projected revenue of CNY 240.19 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 34% [9][11] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024 is forecasted to be CNY 16.63 billion, a substantial increase of 213.32% compared to the previous year [11][9] - The company is focusing on a strategic shift towards AI and intelligent driving technologies, with the launch of the "Qianli Haohan" system aimed at enhancing its product offerings [24][26] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved total sales of 2.177 million vehicles, a 32% increase year-on-year, with 41% of sales coming from new energy vehicles [2][16] - The gross margin for 2024 is reported at 15.9%, with a period expense ratio of 11.91% [13][11] - The company’s revenue from complete vehicle sales reached CNY 203.06 billion, reflecting a 36% year-on-year growth [16][2] Future Projections - For 2025, the company aims for a sales target of 2.71 million vehicles, including 1.5 million new energy vehicles [3][22] - The projected revenue for 2025 is CNY 309.74 billion, with a net profit forecast of CNY 13.7 billion [34][4] - The company plans to launch multiple new models across its brands, including the Galaxy, Zeekr, and Lynk & Co, enhancing its market presence [22][3] Valuation Metrics - The estimated earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected to be CNY 1.36, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 14-16 times [34][4] - The company’s reasonable valuation range is set between HKD 20.43 and HKD 23.34, indicating a potential upside from the current share price [6][34] - The company’s net asset return (ROE) is expected to be 13.6% in 2025, reflecting strong profitability [5][34]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Geely Automobile is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The Q4 performance of Geely Automobile met expectations, with total revenue of 72.51 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 29.7% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 20.1%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 3.579 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth of 45.4% and quarter-on-quarter growth of 45.8% [8] - The company aims to achieve a sales target of 2.71 million vehicles in 2025, with 1.5 million of those being new energy vehicles. The company is actively promoting its "Smart Geely 2025" strategy [8] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4, Geely's total sales reached 687,000 units, with year-on-year growth of 30.3% and quarter-on-quarter growth of 28.6%. The average selling price for Geely and Zeekr vehicles was 121,000 yuan, showing a slight decrease [8] - The gross margin for Q4 was 17.3%, an increase of 1.0 percentage points year-on-year, driven by improved profitability from high-margin oil vehicles and enhanced profitability from new energy products [8] Earnings Forecast - The forecast for total revenue is as follows: - 2023: 179.846 billion yuan - 2024: 240.194 billion yuan (33.56% YoY) - 2025: 344.279 billion yuan (43.33% YoY) - 2026: 397.884 billion yuan (15.57% YoY) - 2027: 475.326 billion yuan (19.46% YoY) [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be: - 2023: 5.308 billion yuan - 2024: 16.632 billion yuan (213.32% YoY) - 2025: 14.153 billion yuan (-14.91% YoY) - 2026: 19.599 billion yuan (38.48% YoY) - 2027: 27.060 billion yuan (38.07% YoY) [1] Valuation Metrics - The latest diluted EPS is projected as follows: - 2023: 0.53 yuan - 2024: 1.65 yuan - 2025: 1.40 yuan - 2026: 1.95 yuan - 2027: 2.69 yuan [1] - The P/E ratios are projected as follows: - 2024: 9.48 - 2025: 11.14 - 2026: 8.05 - 2027: 5.83 [1]