1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall supply - demand situation of US soybeans is expected to be relatively loose, but the decline in the US soybean market may be limited due to good new - crop demand [3]. - The high prices in South America reflect optimistic expectations for future demand, but the Brazilian market may face pressure due to the weakening of the real exchange rate [3]. - The domestic soybean meal futures market is running strongly due to concerns about future supply, while the spot market is relatively loose, and inventory pressure may continue to be reflected [3]. - The rapeseed meal futures market is running strongly due to concerns about spot supply shortages, but the continuous upward space is relatively limited because of high granular rapeseed meal inventory and average cost - effectiveness [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies 3.1.1 Comprehensive Analysis - US soybean futures prices are generally weak this week. The focus is on the good condition of new US soybean crops and potential negatives from the monthly supply - demand report. The overall supply - demand is expected to be loose, but the decline may be limited due to good new - crop demand. South American prices remain high, but there may be pressure due to the weakening real exchange rate [3]. - The domestic soybean meal futures market is strong, reflecting concerns about future supply, while the spot market is relatively loose. Oil mill operating rates are high, and soybean meal提货 has declined, so inventory pressure will continue to be reflected. Spot trading is good, but basis trading is average [3]. - The rapeseed meal futures market is strong due to concerns about spot supply shortages, but the continuous upward space is limited because of high granular rapeseed meal inventory and average cost - effectiveness. Information on imported rapeseed mainly affects the far - month market [4]. 3.1.2 Strategies - Unilateral: It is recommended to buy at low points [5]. - Arbitrage: M91 positive spread [5]. - Options: Stay on the sidelines [5]. 3.2 Core Logic Analysis 3.2.1 Good Growth of New US Soybean Crops, Overall Loose Supply - Demand - This week, the US soybean futures market declined. Good weather in US production areas, slow export progress, and concerns about negative reports are the main factors. As of the week of July 6, the excellent - good rate of US soybeans was 66%, higher than the 5 - year average of 62.4%. Old - crop sales are good, but new - crop sales are slow. The monthly supply - demand report is relatively negative, but the decline may be limited because the pressure on new - crop ending stocks is not obvious [9]. 3.2.2 High South American Prices, Supply Pressure Remains - Although US soybean prices declined this week, Brazilian prices remain strong. Domestic soybean meal prices are strong, and US soybean price declines have improved domestic crushing margins to some extent, but they are still relatively low. Brazilian export markets are loose, and high prices may reflect optimistic expectations for future exports. Brazilian domestic crushing demand may be supported by biodiesel benefits, but there may be pressure due to the weakening real. Argentine near - month shipping quotes are firm, and far - month quotes have declined, and export pressure may decrease due to tariff adjustments [12]. 3.2.3 Supply Pressure Emerges, Phased Rebound in the Futures Market - Domestic soybean meal futures prices are oscillating strongly this week. Although US soybean prices have declined, Brazilian prices are firm, domestic crushing margins have improved, and concerns about future supply support the domestic market. Oil mill operating rates are still high, soybean arrivals are increasing, and inventory pressure is increasing. Sales are good, and the futures market may be supported as the decline in cost is limited [15]. 3.2.4 Low Rapeseed Meal Inventory, Strong Futures Market - Domestic rapeseed meal futures prices are strong this week, stronger than soybean meal. Spot supply shortages are evident. Domestic rapeseed and crushed rapeseed meal inventories are low, and oil mill operating rates have decreased, tightening supply. The cost - effectiveness of rapeseed meal has improved slightly, but the high granular rapeseed meal inventory limits the upward space. Information on imported rapeseed mainly affects the far - month market [18]. 3.3 Fundamental Data Changes 3.3.1 International Market - Data on US soybean weekly sales, export inspections, monthly crushing volume, and weekly crushing profit are presented, as well as data on Brazilian and Argentine monthly export volume and monthly crushing volume [21][23]. 3.3.2 Foreign Premiums - Data on FOB premiums for US Gulf, Brazil, and Argentina, as well as CNF premiums for rapeseed are shown [25]. 3.3.3 Macro: Exchange Rates and International Shipping - Exchange rate data for USD/CNH, USD/BRL, and USD/ARS are provided, along with Panama - class cargo ship freight prices for different routes and their changes [30][32]. 3.3.4 Supply - Data on soybean and rapeseed import volume and crushing volume are presented [39]. 3.3.5 Demand - Data on soybean meal and rapeseed meal提货 volume are provided [41]. 3.3.6 Inventory - Data on soybean, rapeseed, soybean meal, and rapeseed + rapeseed meal inventory are shown [44].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Oils and Fats**: Oscillating with a slight upward bias [8] - **Protein Meal**: Oscillating [9] - **Corn and Starch**: Oscillating [10][11] - **Hogs**: Oscillating [11] - **Natural Rubber**: Oscillating [12][13] - **Synthetic Rubber**: Oscillating [15] - **Cotton**: Oscillating [15] - **Sugar**: Oscillating in the short - term, with a long - term downward bias [16] - **Pulp**: Oscillating [17] - **Logs**: Oscillating with a slight downward bias [18] 2. Core Views of the Report - The oils and fats market is influenced by factors such as optimistic overseas biodiesel demand, good growth of US soybeans, and reduced marginal production pressure of Malaysian palm oil in June. It is expected to continue oscillating and differentiating, with palm oil remaining relatively strong [8]. - The protein meal market is a mix of long and short factors. US soybeans are expected to maintain range - bound oscillations, and domestic soybean meal inventories continue to accumulate [9]. - The corn market has local weakness in spot prices, and futures prices are oscillating at low levels. US corn is expected to continue its downward trend [10][11]. - The hog market has short - term positive sentiment due to macro - regulation, but there is supply pressure in the medium and long term. Attention should be paid to inventory rhythm changes and supply - side adjustments [11]. - The natural rubber market is in a range - bound oscillation. It is currently in a state where supply has an incremental expectation but demand has a decreasing expectation, and it is less likely to experience a sharp decline in the third quarter [13]. - The synthetic rubber market is expected to maintain range - bound oscillations, and attention should be paid to device changes [15]. - The cotton market has an expected increase in production in the new season, and the demand is in the off - season. The current commercial inventory is low, so the old - crop contracts are expected to be resistant to declines, and the upward space of the market is restricted in the medium term [15]. - The sugar market is expected to have a loose supply in the new season, with a downward driving force for sugar prices in the long term and an oscillating trend in the short term [16]. - The pulp market has a weak supply - demand situation, but the absolute valuation is not high. It is expected that the pulp futures will oscillate [17]. - The log market has short - term pressure on the circulation of delivery products, and the spot price is expected to remain weakly stable. The medium - term market is expected to operate in the range of 760 - 830 [18][19]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Oils and Fats - **Logic**: Due to good weather in US soybean - producing areas, US soybeans fell on Tuesday, while US soybean oil oscillated slightly upward. Domestic oils showed oscillating differentiation, with palm oil being strong and rapeseed oil and soybean oil being weak. The market is concerned about US foreign trade negotiations and the EIA's downward adjustment of the US crude oil production forecast for 2025. US soybeans are growing well, and the demand for US soybean oil in US biodiesel is expected to increase. Brazil will raise the biodiesel blending ratio. The import volume of domestic soybeans is large, and the inventory of domestic soybean oil is rising. The expected increase in palm oil production in Malaysia in June is limited, and the export is expected to be good. The inventory of domestic rapeseed oil is slowly decreasing but still at a high level [8]. - **Outlook**: The oils and fats market is affected by multiple factors and is expected to continue oscillating and differentiating in the near future, with palm oil remaining relatively strong [8]. 3.1.2 Protein Meal - **Logic**: Trump extended the "reciprocal tariff" suspension period. US soybeans are growing well, and China mainly purchases Brazilian soybeans. The supply of domestic soybean meal is increasing, and the inventory is accumulating. The demand for downstream replenishment is insufficient, but the long - term consumption of soybean meal is expected to be stable or increase slightly [9]. - **Outlook**: US soybeans are expected to maintain range - bound oscillations. Domestic soybean meal inventories continue to accumulate. Oil mills can sell on rallies, and downstream enterprises can buy basis contracts or fix prices on dips. One can buy and hold at around 2900 [9]. 3.1.3 Corn - **Logic**: Futures prices are oscillating at low levels, and the bearish sentiment has been released. The number of waiting vehicles at North China's deep - processing enterprises has decreased, and the procurement price of terminal grain - using enterprises has been lowered. The import of corn by auction has a certain turnover rate, and the supply of wheat and imported corn is increasing. US corn is in good condition, but speculative funds are selling [10][11]. - **Outlook**: Corn is expected to oscillate in the short term. Attention should be paid to the inventory reduction of corn and the substitution of wheat [10][11]. 3.1.4 Hogs - **Logic**: In the short term, the macro - regulation has brought positive sentiment, and the pressure on group - farm slaughter has been partially released. In the medium and long term, the supply is still under pressure due to sufficient sows and increasing piglet births. The price of fat pigs has decreased, and the inventory situation is divided [11]. - **Outlook**: The hog market is expected to oscillate. Attention should be paid to the implementation of capacity reduction [11]. 3.1.5 Natural Rubber - **Logic**: The natural rubber market is in a range - bound oscillation. The supply in Asian producing areas is affected by the rainy season, and the arrival of ships in July and August is expected to be less. The demand of some tire enterprises has recovered, but the long - term demand is expected to be weak. There may be inventory - reduction trading in the third quarter, and it is less likely to experience a sharp decline [13]. - **Outlook**: Before the fundamentals provide guidance, it may continue to fluctuate with the overall commodity market [13]. 3.1.6 Synthetic Rubber - **Logic**: The BR futures rose rapidly due to a refinery fire, but the refinery does not produce BR delivery products. The butadiene price has been falling, and the supply - demand contradiction is prominent. Although there is some support for the market, the overall performance is weak [15]. - **Outlook**: It is expected to maintain range - bound oscillations, and attention should be paid to device changes [15]. 3.1.7 Cotton - **Logic**: There is an expected increase in cotton production in China and other major producing countries in the new season. The demand is in the off - season, and the inventory of textile products is increasing. The commercial inventory of cotton is at a low level, and the old - crop contracts are expected to be resistant to declines. The upward space of the market is restricted in the medium term [15]. - **Outlook**: The cotton price is expected to oscillate in the short term, with a reference range of 13500 - 14300 yuan/ton [15]. 3.1.8 Sugar - **Logic**: The supply of the sugar market is expected to be loose in the new season. The production of Brazilian sugar may not meet expectations, and the monsoon in India is conducive to sugarcane growth. The domestic sugar market is in the pure - sales period, with a high sales - to - production ratio and low inventory. The import of sugar is expected to increase, and the supply pressure will gradually appear [16]. - **Outlook**: Sugar prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the long term and oscillate in the short term [16]. 3.1.9 Pulp - **Logic**: The pulp futures have rebounded slightly, but the spot market is weak. The supply - demand situation is weak, with high European port inventories, low monthly US - dollar prices, and weak downstream paper product sales. However, the absolute valuation of pulp is not high, and there is a risk in short - selling [17]. - **Outlook**: The pulp futures are expected to oscillate [17]. 3.1.10 Logs - **Logic**: The log market has short - term pressure on the circulation of delivery products, and the cost of both sellers and buyers in the delivery process has increased. The overall demand for logs this year is stable, and the inventory reduction is slow. The new foreign quotation has increased, and the supply reduction expectation in July and August is weakened [18][19]. - **Outlook**: The log market is expected to operate weakly and stably in the short term and oscillate in the range of 760 - 830 in the medium term [18][19]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring The report lists various varieties for data monitoring, including oils and fats, protein meal, corn, starch, hogs, cotton, sugar, pulp, and logs, but no specific data content is provided in the given text [21][40][53]. 3.3 Rating Standards The report provides rating standards for different trends, including "strong", "oscillating with a slight upward bias", "oscillating", "oscillating with a slight downward bias", and "weak", with a time period of 2 - 12 weeks and a standard deviation calculation method [170].

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a daily research report on meal products dated July 9, 2025, focusing on the market conditions of soybean meal and rapeseed meal [2][4] Group 2: Market Quotes Futures and Spot Basis - For soybean meal, the closing prices of contracts 01, 05, and 09 are 2997, 2704, and 2947 respectively, with changes of +8, -1, and +12. The spot basis in Tianjin, Dongguan, Zhangjiagang, and Rizhao shows a downward trend [4] - For rapeseed meal, the closing prices of contracts 01, 05, and 09 are 2313, 2306, and 2586 respectively, with changes of +3, -6, and +10. The spot basis in Nantong, Guangdong, and Guangxi shows a stable or slightly downward trend [4] Monthly Spread - The 59, 91, and 15 spreads of soybean meal are -243, -50, and 293 respectively, with changes of -13, +4, and +9. The 59, 91, and 15 spreads of rapeseed meal are -280, 273, and 7 respectively, with changes of -16, +7, and +9 [4] Cross - Variety Futures Spread - The soybean - rapeseed 01 spread is 684, and the soybean - rapeseed 09 spread is 361. The oil - meal ratio 01 is 2.641 [4] Spot Spread - The spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 640, with an increase of 9. The spread between rapeseed meal and sunflower meal is 7, with an increase of 3. The spread between soybean meal and sunflower meal is 587, with an increase of 2 [4] Market Performance - The US soybean market continued to decline slightly. The domestic soybean meal market rebounded, and the rapeseed meal market also followed a slight rebound. The spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal widened [4] Group 3: Fundamental Analysis US Soybean - The new US soybean balance sheet has improved, mainly due to the boost of biodiesel policies on crushing. As of the week ending July 6, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans reached 66%. As of the week ending July 3, the export inspection volume of old US soybeans was 389,400 tons. The soybean crushing data in May was good, with a NOPA - caliber crushing volume of 192.829 million bushels, a month - on - month increase of 1.37%, and the crushing profit rebounded [5] South American Soybean - Brazilian farmers' selling progress has been slow, and the recent selling progress has further slowed down, resulting in price pressure. Brazilian soybean crushing volume has decreased, and the crushing profit is relatively low. Argentina's domestic crushing volume may improve, but soybean exports may increase [5] Domestic Market - The domestic spot market is relatively loose. As of July 4, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills is 2.3322 million tons, the operating rate is 65.56%, the soybean inventory is 6.364 million tons, a decrease of 4.43% from the previous week, and an increase of 11.28% year - on - year. The soybean meal inventory is 822,400 tons, an increase of 18.91% from the previous week, and a decrease of 24.04% year - on - year [7] - The demand for domestic rapeseed meal has weakened. As of the week ending July 4, the crushing volume of rapeseed in major coastal oil mills is 47,000 tons, the operating rate this week is 12.53%, the rapeseed inventory is 162,000 tons, a decrease of 26,000 tons from the previous week, and the rapeseed meal inventory is 4,600 tons, a decrease of 6,400 tons from the previous week [7] Group 4: Macroeconomic Analysis - The China - US negotiations in London have been completed, but there is no clear information. The market is still worried about supply uncertainties. Although the overall international trade situation has many uncertainties, the macro - level disturbances are decreasing. China's long - term demand for US soybeans is still high, so the price is not likely to drop significantly in the short term [8] Group 5: Logic Analysis Soybean Meal - The domestic soybean meal market shows some support and is slightly stronger than the international market. The US soybean market is expected to be weak, but the decline in the domestic market is expected to be limited. The monthly spread of the domestic soybean meal market may be under some pressure, but the space for a sharp decline is limited [9] Rapeseed Meal - The change in the rapeseed meal market is relatively limited, mainly affected by the soybean meal market. The spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is expected to widen. The monthly spread of the rapeseed meal market is at a high level and may face some pressure [9] Group 6: Trading Strategies - For unilateral trading, a low - position long - order strategy is recommended - For arbitrage, an expansion strategy for the MRM09 spread is recommended - For options, a wait - and - see strategy is recommended [10] Group 7: Soybean Crushing Profit - The crushing profit from different origins and shipping dates varies. For example, the crushing profit from Argentina in October is - 33.39 for the futures market and - 109.79 for the spot market, showing an improvement compared to the previous day [11]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The domestic soybean meal futures market is influenced by the decline of the US soybean market, with the domestic spot market also showing signs of weakness. The rapeseed meal market has limited support, and the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is widening. The monthly spreads of both soybean meal and rapeseed meal are falling. In the future, the US soybean may experience a phased decline, while the decline of the domestic market is expected to be limited. The spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is expected to expand, and the monthly spread of rapeseed meal may face pressure [4][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - The US soybean futures market declined significantly due to favorable weather in the production area and lack of substantial positive factors in demand. The domestic soybean meal market followed the decline of the cost side, and the domestic spot market also weakened. The rapeseed meal market had limited support, and the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal widened. The monthly spreads of both soybean meal and rapeseed meal continued to decline [4]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **International Market**: The balance sheet of the new US soybean crop has improved, mainly due to the boost of biodiesel policy on soybean crushing. However, there is no substantial positive factor in production and export. The selling progress of Brazilian farmers has been slow, and the pressure on soybean prices is increasing. The soybean crushing volume in Brazil has decreased, and the profit is relatively low. The domestic soybean crushing volume in Argentina may improve, but soybean exports may increase. Overall, the supply pressure of the international soybean market is mainly concentrated in South America [5]. - **Domestic Market**: The domestic soybean meal supply is relatively loose, with the oil mill operating rate increasing, market supply abundant, and inventory gradually accumulating. The demand for rapeseed meal has gradually weakened, and the supply pressure still exists. Although the future supply of rapeseed and rapeseed meal is uncertain, the demand has also weakened, so the rapeseed meal market is expected to fluctuate [6]. 3.3 Macroeconomic Analysis - The negotiation between China and the United States in London has been completed, but the market has not received clear information. Due to the lack of clear macro - guidance, the market is still worried about the uncertainty of future supply. Although the international trade situation has many uncertain factors, the macro - disturbances are decreasing. In the short term, the price of Chinese soybeans is not likely to decline significantly because of the high demand for the US soybean market [7]. 3.4 Logical Analysis - The domestic soybean meal market is under pressure due to the decline of the external market. The upcoming monthly supply - demand report may have a negative impact on the price, and the slow selling progress in Brazil and lack of demand support may lead to a phased decline of the US soybean price. The decline of the domestic market is expected to be limited. The monthly spreads of both soybean meal and rapeseed meal may face pressure, but the room for a sharp decline is limited. The rapeseed meal market is mainly affected by the soybean meal market, and the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is expected to expand [8]. 3.5 Trading Strategy - **Single - side Trading**: It is recommended to take a long - position strategy at low prices [9]. - **Arbitrage**: Expand the MRM09 spread [9]. - **Options**: Take a wait - and - see approach [9].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The international soybean market has limited near - term pressure, with good US soybean export performance and reduced selling pressure in Brazil. However, the long - term supply is expected to be relatively loose due to high projected US soybean ending stocks and continued pressure in the South American market. - In the domestic market, the recent tight supply situation is gradually improving as the oil mill operating rate increases and soybean arrivals become clearer. - The macro - environment has a complex and limited impact on soybean meal, as China still imposes tariffs on US soybeans. - The soybean meal futures market is expected to face some pressure, while the rapeseed meal market may see weakening demand and limited supply - side benefits[5][6][7]. 3. Summary by Related Content Market Quotes - The US soybean futures market showed a strong trend due to improved macro - conditions after China - US talks. The domestic futures market was mainly in shock, with soybean meal outperforming rapeseed meal. - For soybean meal futures, the contract 0105 closed at 2955, down 6; contract 09 at 2919, down 1. For rapeseed meal futures, contract 01 closed at 2330, down 15; contract 05 at 2485, up 1; contract 09 at 2563, down 2. - The basis of soybean meal in Tianjin was 420, up 40; in Dongguan, it was 220, down 130; in Zhangjiagang, it was 200, up 10; in Rizhao, it was 190, up 30. The basis of rapeseed meal in Nantong was - 63, up 42; in Guangdong, it was - 113, down 8; in Guangxi, it was - 123, down 8. - The 5 - 9 spread of soybean meal was - 132, up 28; the 9 - 1 spread was - 36, up 5; the 1 - 5 spread was 168, down 33. The 5 - 9 spread of rapeseed meal was - 78, up 3; the 9 - 1 spread was 233, up 13; the 1 - 5 spread was - 155, down 16. - The spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal was 852, down 18; between soybean meal and sunflower meal was 1039, down 111; between rapeseed meal and sunflower meal was 117, down 3[4]. Fundamental Analysis - International: As of the week ending May 1, US soybean export sales were 376,700 tons. The March crushing data was average, but overall demand was good. Brazil's soybean harvest progress as of May 3 was 97.7%, higher than last year and the five - year average. The long - term US soybean ending stocks are expected to remain high due to large export pressure on new crops, and the South American market will continue to face pressure. - Domestic: As of May 9, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 1.846 million tons, with an operating rate of 51.89%. Soybean inventory was 5.3491 million tons, up 602,700 tons (12.7%) from last week and 1.1634 million tons (27.79%) from last year. Soybean meal inventory was 101,200 tons, up 19,100 tons (23.26%) from last week but down 458,000 tons (81.9%) from last year. The rapeseed crushing volume of coastal oil mills was 159,500 tons, with an operating rate of 42.51%. Rapeseed inventory was 200,000 tons, down 68,000 tons from last week, and rapeseed meal inventory was 36,000 tons, up 21,500 tons from last week[5][6]. Macro - environment The postponement and reduction of tariffs by China and the US have complex and limited impacts on soybean meal, as China still imposes tariffs on US soybeans[6]. Logic Analysis - Soybean meal: With the increase in the operating rate of domestic oil mills, the supply shortage is alleviated. The upcoming monthly supply - demand report may be a focus, but the pricing center is still in South America, so the market may face pressure. - Rapeseed meal: The market's focus is on future supply. With the decline in soybean meal prices, rapeseed meal demand may weaken, and supply - side benefits may be limited. The inter - monthly spreads of both soybean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to be volatile[7]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral trading: Hold a wait - and - see attitude. - Arbitrage: Hold a wait - and - see attitude. - Options: Adopt a strategy of selling wide straddles[8]. Soybean Crushing Profit - For soybeans from Argentina, the May shipment had a crushing profit of 75.10; June shipment, 11.48; July shipment, - 76.77. - For soybeans from Brazil, the June shipment had a crushing profit of 102.52; July shipment, 82.62; August shipment, 15.34[9].