Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the text. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For zinc's inter - period arbitrage, considering the supply pattern affected by the production cycle of zinc mines at home and abroad, zinc ore supply will cyclically shift from tight to abundant. If there are no major highlights in demand throughout the year, the supply - demand balance will tend to shift towards surplus, putting pressure on the long - term price center. It is recommended to participate in zinc's inter - period positive arbitrage by rolling at low prices [5]. - For the cross - variety arbitrage of aluminum and zinc, the aluminum social inventory is low, which supports the price. The fundamentals of aluminum are stronger than those of zinc. It is recommended to participate in the strategy of buying aluminum and shorting zinc by rolling at low prices [5]. Summary According to the Directory Part One: Weekly Price Performance Review and Fund Flow - **Weekly Price Review**: From August 15th to August 22nd, 2025, LME copper rose by 0.37% (from 9760 to 9796.5), LME aluminum by 0.73% (from 2603 to 2622), LME zinc by 0.32% (from 2796.5 to 2805.5), LME lead by 0.71% (from 1981 to 1995), LME tin by 0.70% (from 33610 to 33845), while LME nickel fell by 0.63% (from 15195 to 15100). SHFE copper fell by 0.47% (from 79060 to 78690), SHFE aluminum by 0.67% (from 20770 to 20630), SHFE zinc by 1.02% (from 22505 to 22275), SHFE lead by 0.42% (from 16850 to 16780), SHFE nickel by 0.82% (from 120600 to 119610), and SHFE tin by 0.33% (from 266820 to 265930) [9]. - **Fund Flow**: Most non - ferrous metals' single - side open interest is at a relatively low level in recent years. Copper's single - side open interest has increased significantly recently. This week, nickel's single - side open interest increased by 9.1% month - on - month, while those of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, and tin decreased by 1.3%, 4.3%, 1.9%, 3.8%, and 3.7% respectively. Except for nickel and tin, major non - ferrous metals had net capital outflows this week [11]. Part Two: Non - ferrous Metal Inventory and Profit Situation - **Inventory Situation**: As of August 22nd, 2025, compared with August 15th, LME copper inventory increased by 0.11% (from 155800 to 155975), LME aluminum inventory decreased by 0.17% (from 479550 to 478725), LME zinc inventory decreased by 10.81% (from 76325 to 68075), LME lead inventory increased by 4.58% (from 261100 to 273050), LME nickel inventory decreased by 0.90% (from 211662 to 209748), and LME tin inventory increased by 7.85% (from 1655 to 1785) [28]. - **Smelting Profit Situation**: This week, copper's processing fee decreased slightly month - on - month, and smelters suffered a loss of 2350 yuan/ton, with the loss widening slightly month - on - month. Aluminum's theoretical smelting cost was 18624 yuan/ton, and the smelting profit rose slightly to 2126 yuan/ton. Zinc's imported processing fee increased slightly month - on - month, and the theoretical smelting profit of domestic ore was 1230 yuan/ton [43]. Part Three: Non - ferrous Metal Basis and Term Structure - **Basis Situation**: On August 22nd, 2025, the copper basis was 320 (compared with 180 on August 15th), the aluminum basis was 120 (compared with - 90 on August 15th), the zinc basis was - 65 (compared with - 45 on August 15th), the lead basis was 60 (compared with - 10 on August 15th), the nickel basis was 1280 (compared with 1220 on August 15th), and the tin basis was 10 (compared with - 810 on August 15th) [46]. - **Term Structure**: This week, nickel and tin were in the Contango structure. Copper's spread between the first - nearby contract was - 40, an increase of 70 compared with last week; aluminum's spread was - 20, a decrease of 35 compared with last week; zinc's spread was 0, a decrease of 25 compared with last week; lead's spread was 0, a decrease of 90 compared with last week; nickel's spread was 150, a decrease of 50 compared with last week; tin's spread was 200, a decrease of 410 compared with last week [62]. Part Four: Comparison of Domestic and Overseas Metal Prices - **Domestic - to - Overseas Ratio**: The Shanghai - to - London ratios of zinc and lead are at relatively high historical levels. This week, the Shanghai - to - London ratios of major metals showed mixed trends. The Shanghai - to - London ratios of base metals were copper (1.12), aluminum (1.10), zinc (1.11), lead (1.17), nickel (1.10), and tin (1.09) [78]. - **Import Profit and Loss**: This week, the import profit and loss of copper and nickel were 103 and 415 respectively, while those of other major metals were negative. Cross - market arbitrage can focus on factors such as the Fed's interest - rate cut policy, the comparison of domestic and overseas inventories, and domestic macro - policy expectations [78]. Part Five: Cross - Variety Ratio Changes of Non - ferrous Metals - As of August 22nd, 2025, the copper - aluminum ratio was 3.81 (79.9% in terms of the ratio percentile), the copper - zinc ratio was 3.53 (97.6% in terms of the ratio percentile), the copper - lead ratio was 4.69 (89.6% in terms of the ratio percentile), the copper - nickel ratio was 1.52 (1.1% in terms of the ratio percentile), the copper - tin ratio was 3.38 (68.9% in terms of the ratio percentile), the zinc - aluminum ratio was 1.08 (5.1% in terms of the ratio percentile), the aluminum - lead ratio was 1.23 (74.3% in terms of the ratio percentile), the aluminum - nickel ratio was 5.80 (0.5% in terms of the ratio percentile), the aluminum - tin ratio was 12.89 (73.7% in terms of the ratio percentile), the zinc - lead ratio was 1.33 (30.5% in terms of the ratio percentile), the zinc - nickel ratio was 5.37 (9.9% in terms of the ratio percentile), the zinc - tin ratio was 11.94 (88.1% in terms of the ratio percentile), the lead - nickel ratio was 7.13 (7.0% in terms of the ratio percentile), the lead - tin ratio was 15.85 (79.2% in terms of the ratio percentile), and the nickel - tin ratio was 2.22 (98.9% in terms of the ratio percentile) [96].

有色金属套利周报20250714 研究员：张杰夫 研究员：王艳红 投资咨询号:Z0016959 投资咨询号：Z0010675 Email：wangyh@zxqh.net Tel：027-68851554 Email：zhangjf@zxqh.net Tel：027-68851554 套利策略 | | 品 种 | 策 略 | 核心观点 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 国内需求进入淡季 下游企业开工率趋降 ， ， 订单量减少 铝棒持续累库 社库拐点临 。 ， | | 跨 期 | 铝 | 套 反 | 近 铝价有冲高回落的风险 而淡季结束 ， 。 | | | | | 后 需求有望重新为铝价提供支撑 建议逢 ， ， | | | | | 低滚动参与铝的跨期反套 。 | | | | | 国内精炼锌产出明显恢复 年内全球新投产 ， | | | | | 锌矿项目有望逐步释放增量 而铝社库偏低 ， | | 跨品种 | 铝&锌 | 多铝空锌 | 对价格存有支撑 基本面强于锌 建议逢低 | | | | | ， ， | | | | | 滚动参与多铝空锌 。 | 2 第一部分：周度价格表现回顾与资 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Non-ferrous Metal Arbitrage Weekly Report 20250707 [2] - Researchers: Zhang Jiefu, Wang Yanhong [2] Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Views - For aluminum in the inter - period strategy, domestic demand has entered the off - season with reduced orders, aluminum rods are starting to accumulate inventory, and the inflection point of social inventory is approaching, so there is a risk of aluminum price rising and then falling. After the off - season, demand is expected to support the aluminum price again. It is recommended to participate in the inter - period reverse arbitrage of aluminum by rolling at low prices [4]. - For the cross - variety strategy of aluminum and zinc, domestic refined zinc output has significantly recovered, and new zinc mine projects globally are expected to gradually release incremental output this year. While aluminum social inventory is low, which supports the price, and its fundamentals are stronger than zinc. It is recommended to participate in the long - aluminum and short - zinc strategy by rolling at low prices [4]. Summary by Directory Part I: Weekly Price Performance Review and Fund Flow - **Price Review**: From June 27, 2025, to July 4, 2025, LME copper decreased by 0.27% (from 9879 to 9852), LME aluminum increased by 0.10% (from 2595 to 2597.5), LME zinc decreased by 1.55% (from 2778.5 to 2735.5), LME lead increased by 0.76% (from 2041.5 to 2057), LME nickel increased by 0.46% (from 15190 to 15260), LME tin increased by 0.61% (from 33565 to 33770). SHFE copper decreased by 0.24% (from 79920 to 79730), SHFE aluminum increased by 0.27% (from 20580 to 20635), SHFE zinc remained unchanged (at 22410), SHFE lead increased by 0.99% (from 17125 to 17295), SHFE nickel increased by 1.49% (from 120480 to 122270), and SHFE tin decreased by 0.60% (from 268870 to 267250) [8]. - **Fund Flow**: The unilateral positions of most non - ferrous metals are at relatively low levels in recent years. The unilateral positions of aluminum and lead increased by 3.0% and 4.3% respectively this week, while those of zinc, nickel, and tin decreased by 2.8%, 7.3%, and 7.2% respectively. Except for tin, major non - ferrous metals had net capital outflows this week [10]. Part II: Non - ferrous Metal Inventory and Profit - **Inventory**: From June 27, 2025, to July 4, 2025, LME copper inventory increased by 4.38% (from 91275 to 95275), LME aluminum inventory increased by 5.42% (from 345200 to 363925), LME zinc inventory decreased by 5.79% (from 119225 to 112325), LME lead inventory decreased by 3.71% (from 273425 to 263275), LME nickel inventory decreased by 0.89% (from 204294 to 202470), and LME tin inventory decreased by 2.99% (from 2175 to 2110) [27]. - **Profit**: For copper, the processing fee increased slightly this week, and smelters had a loss of 2592 yuan/ton, with the loss narrowing slightly compared to last week. For aluminum, the theoretical smelting cost this week was 18348 yuan/ton, and the smelting profit decreased slightly to 2402 yuan/ton. For zinc, the import processing fee increased slightly this week, and the theoretical smelting profit of domestic mines was 1112 yuan/ton [43]. Part III: Non - ferrous Metal Basis and Term Structure - **Basis**: As of July 4, 2025, the copper basis was 790 (compared to 420 on June 27), with a basis premium rate of 0.99%, a one - year basis quantile of 92.98%, and a three - year basis quantile of 85.12%. The aluminum basis was 115 (compared to 360 on June 27), with a basis premium rate of 0.56%, a one - year basis quantile of 80.79%, and a three - year basis quantile of 76.03%. The zinc basis was 80 (compared to 280 on June 27), with a basis premium rate of 0.36%, a one - year basis quantile of 35.54%, and a three - year basis quantile of 36.78%. The lead basis was - 35 (compared to 135 on June 27), with a basis premium rate of - 0.20%, a one - year basis quantile of 33.26%, and a three - year basis quantile of 36.43%. The nickel basis was 1590 (compared to 2060 on June 27), with a basis premium rate of 1.30%, a one - year basis quantile of 77.07%, and a three - year basis quantile of 42.70%. The tin basis was 570 (compared to 1340 on June 27), with a basis premium rate of 0.21%, a one - year basis quantile of 59.71%, and a three - year basis quantile of 56.47% [46]. - **Term Structure**: This week, nickel was in the Contango structure, while copper and zinc were in the Back structure. The spread between the first - nearby contract and the nearby contract of copper was - 260, a decrease of 100 compared to last week; that of aluminum was - 180, an increase of 20 compared to last week; that of zinc was - 30, an increase of 50 compared to last week; that of lead was 55, an increase of 5 compared to last week; that of nickel was 120, a decrease of 40 compared to last week; and that of tin was 260, a decrease of 60 compared to last week [62]. Part IV: Comparison of Domestic and Overseas Metal Prices - The Shanghai - London ratios of zinc and lead are at relatively high historical levels. This week, the Shanghai - London ratios of major non - ferrous metals showed mixed trends. The Shanghai - London ratios of basic metals were 1.13 for copper, 1.11 for aluminum, 1.14 for zinc, 1.17 for lead, 1.12 for nickel, and 1.10 for tin. This week, the import profit and loss of lead and nickel were 155 and 46 respectively, while those of other major metals were negative. Cross - market arbitrage can focus on factors such as the Fed's interest - rate cut policy, the comparison of domestic and overseas inventories, and the expectation of domestic growth - stabilizing policies [79]. Part V: Changes in Cross - variety Ratios of Non - ferrous Metals - The report provides the current values, values three months ago, and values one year ago of cross - variety ratios and differences for various non - ferrous metal combinations, including copper - aluminum, copper - zinc, copper - lead, etc., as well as their corresponding quantiles [96].

有色金属套利周报20250623 研究员：张杰夫 研究员：王艳红 投资咨询号:Z0016959 投资咨询号：Z0010675 Email：wangyh@zxqh.net Tel：027-68851554 Tel：027-68851554 Email：zhangjf@zxqh.net 套利策略 第一部分：周度价格表现回顾与资金流动情况 第二部分：有色金属库存与利润情况 第三部分：有色金属基差与期限结构 第四部分：内外盘金属价格对比 第五部分：有色金属跨品种比值变化 3 目 录 目 录 | | 品 种 | 策 | 略 | 核心观点 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 国内需求进入淡季 订单量减少 铝棒开始 ， 。 累库 社库拐点临近 铝价有冲高回落的风 | | 跨 期 | 铝 | 反 | 套 | ， ， 险 而淡季结束后 需求有望重新为铝价提 。 ， | | | | | | 供支撑 建议逢低滚动参与铝的跨期反套 ， 。 | | | | | | 国内精炼锌产出明显恢复 年内全球新投产 ， | | 跨品种 | 铝&锌 | 多铝空锌 | | 锌矿项目有望逐步释放增量 ...

有色金属套利周报20250616 研究员：张杰夫 研究员：王艳红 投资咨询号：Z0010675 Email：wangyh@zxqh.net Tel：027-68851554 投资咨询号:Z0016959 2 第一部分：周度价格表现回顾与资金流动情况 第二部分：有色金属库存与利润情况 Email：zhangjf@zxqh.net Tel：027-68851554 套利策略 | | 品 种 | 策 略 | | 核心观点 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 需求缺乏亮点 ， 内外锌矿山投产周期影响 ， | 基本面压力逐步累积 受国 。 锌矿供给将周期 | | | | | | | 供 | | | | | | ， | ， | | | | | | 需平衡倾向于向过剩端移动 ， | 建议逢低滚动 | | | | | | 国内精炼锌产出明显恢复 ， | 年内全球新投产 | | | | | | 锌矿项目有望逐步释放增量 ， | 而铝社库偏低 | | | 跨品种 | 铝&锌 | 多铝空锌 | | | | | | | | 对价格存有支撑 基本面强于锌 ， ， 滚动参与 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Non-ferrous Metal Arbitrage Weekly Report 20250512 [2] - Researchers: Zhang Jiefu, Wang Yanhong [2] - Investment Consulting Numbers: Z0016959, Z0010675 [2] - Email: wangyh@zxqh.net, zhangjf@zxqh.net [2] - Tel: 027 - 68851554 [2] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - For zinc's inter - period arbitrage, due to the easing of tariff disputes in atmosphere, smelters turning profitable, continuous rapid increase in TC, and the cyclical shift of zinc ore supply from tight to loose with new domestic and foreign zinc mines coming into production, it is recommended to participate in the inter - period positive arbitrage of zinc by rolling at low prices [4]. - For the cross - variety arbitrage of aluminum and zinc, as zinc mine projects are expected to gradually release incremental output and the fundamentals of aluminum are stronger than zinc, it is recommended to participate in the strategy of going long on aluminum and short on zinc by rolling at low prices [4]. Summary by Directory Part I: Weekly Price Performance Review and Capital Flow - **Weekly Price Review**: LME copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin prices increased week - on - week with increases of 3.51%, 0.75%, 2.35%, 1.23%, 2.50%, and 1.71% respectively; SHFE copper, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin prices changed by 0.30%, - 1.11%, - 0.21%, - 0.22%, and - 0.29% respectively, while SHFE aluminum price decreased by 1.63% [8]. - **Capital Flow**: Most non - ferrous metals' single - sided open interest is at a relatively low level in recent years, with aluminum's single - sided open interest increasing significantly recently. This week, the single - sided open interest of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin increased by 6.5%, 11.4%, 13.7%, 7.2%, 5.2%, and 4.5% respectively. Except for lead and nickel, major non - ferrous metals had net capital outflows [10]. Part II: Non - ferrous Metal Inventory and Profit Situation - **Inventory Situation**: LME copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin inventories decreased week - on - week with decreases of 4.18%, 2.89%, 2.82%, 4.58%, 1.81%, and 1.81% respectively [26]. - **Profit Situation**: This week, the processing fee of copper decreased slightly, and smelters' loss widened to 2921 yuan/ton; the theoretical smelting cost of aluminum was 17818 yuan/ton, and the smelting profit dropped to 1731 yuan/ton; the domestic processing fee of zinc increased by 50 yuan/ton compared with last week, and the theoretical smelting profit of domestic zinc ore was - 243 yuan/ton [43]. Part III: Non - ferrous Metal Basis and Term Structure - **Basis Situation**: As of May 9, 2025, the copper basis was 930 with a basis premium rate of 1.20%; the aluminum basis was - 35 with a basis premium rate of - 0.18%; the zinc basis was 550 with a basis premium rate of 2.48%; the lead basis was 5 with a basis premium rate of 0.03%; the nickel basis was 1160 with a basis premium rate of 0.94%; the tin basis was - 340 with a basis premium rate of - 0.13% [46]. - **Term Structure**: This week, nickel was in a Contango structure, while copper and zinc were in a Back structure. The spread between the first - line contract and the near - month contract of copper was - 510, a decrease of 280 compared with last week; that of aluminum was - 70, an increase of 5; that of zinc was - 385, a decrease of 145; that of lead was - 20, a decrease of 30; that of nickel was 210, remaining unchanged; that of tin was 240, an increase of 70 [62]. Part IV: Comparison of Domestic and Overseas Metal Prices - **Domestic - to - Overseas Ratio**: Zinc and lead's Shanghai - to - LME ratios are at relatively high historical levels. This week, the Shanghai - to - LME ratios of major metals showed mixed trends, with the ratios of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin being 1.13, 1.12, 1.15, 1.17, 1.08, and 1.12 respectively [81]. - **Import Profit and Loss**: This week, the import profit and loss of copper, zinc, and lead were 548, 93, and 269 respectively, while those of other major metals were negative. Cross - market arbitrage can focus on factors such as the Fed's interest - rate cut policy, the comparison of domestic and overseas inventories, and the expectation of domestic growth - stabilizing policies [81]. Part V: Changes in Cross - variety Ratios of Non - ferrous Metals - As of May 9, 2025, the copper - aluminum ratio was 3.95 with a ratio quantile of 96.8%; the copper - zinc ratio was 3.49 with a ratio quantile of 98.9%; the copper - lead ratio was 4.61 with a ratio quantile of 84.3%; the copper - nickel ratio was 1.59 with a ratio quantile of 0.3%; the copper - tin ratio was 3.35 with a ratio quantile of 68.8%; the zinc - aluminum ratio was 1.13 with a ratio quantile of 25.7%; the aluminum - lead ratio was 1.17 with a ratio quantile of 36.2%; the aluminum - nickel ratio was 6.30 with a ratio quantile of 10.1%; the aluminum - tin ratio was 13.25 with a ratio quantile of 83.6%; the zinc - lead ratio was 1.32 with a ratio quantile of 31.3%; the zinc - nickel ratio was 5.56 with a ratio quantile of 14.5%; the zinc - tin ratio was 11.70 with a ratio quantile of 87.8%; the lead - nickel ratio was 7.35 with a ratio quantile of 9.5%; the lead - tin ratio was 15.44 with a ratio quantile of 72.8%; the nickel - tin ratio was 2.10 with a ratio quantile of 97.1% [98].

免责声明: 以上内容所依据的信息均来源于交易所、媒体及资讯公司等发布的公开资料或通过合法授权渠道向发布人取得的资讯，我们力求分析及建议内 容的客观、公正，研究方法专业审慎，分析结论合理，但公司对信息来源的准确性和完整性不作任何保证，也不保证所依据的信息和建议不会 发生任何变化。且全部分析及建议内容仅供参考，不构成对您的任何投资建议及入市依据，客户应当自主做出期货交易决策，独立承担期货交 易后果，凡据此入市者，我公司不承担任何责任。未经公司授权，不得随意转载、复制、传播本网站中所有研究分析报告、行情分析视频等全 锌 当月合约-现货 次月合约-现货 价差 -245 -470 理论价差 117 228 铅 当月合约-现货 次月合约-现货 价差 25 65 理论价差 132 244 跨品种套利跟踪 2025/05/06 铜/锌 铜/铝 铜/铅 铝/锌 铝/铅 铅/锌 沪（三连） 3.46 3.87 4.55 0.89 1.18 0.76 伦（三连） 3.52 3.80 4.66 0.93 1.23 0.76 铅：跨市套利跟踪 2025/05/06 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 16775 1961 8.52 三月 ...

正信期货有色金属套利周报20250428 研究员：张杰夫 研究员：王艳红 投资咨询号:Z0016959 投资咨询号：Z0010675 Email：zhangjf@zxqh.net Email：wangyh@zxqh.net Tel：027-68851554 Tel：027-68851554 套利策略 | | 品 种 | 策 | 略 | 核心观点 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 跨 期 | 锌 | 正 | 套 | TC持续快速上调 炼厂扭亏为盈 受国内外 ， 。 锌矿山投产周期影响 锌矿供给将周期性由 ， | | | | | | 紧转宽松 若全年需求无大的亮点 供需平 ， ， 建议逢低滚动参与 衡倾向于向过剩端移动 ， 锌的跨期正套 。 | | 跨品种 | 铝&锌 | 多铝空锌 | | 国内精炼锌产出边际恢复 年内全球新投产 ， 锌矿项目有望逐步释放增量 而铝因国内产 ， | | | | | | 能限制 基本面强于锌 建议逢低滚动参与 ， ， | | | | | | 多铝空锌 。 | 2 第一部分：周度价格表现回顾与资金流动情况 第二部分：有色金属库存与利润情况 第三部分 ...