Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The report presents cross - market, cross - period, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking data for various non - ferrous metals including copper, zinc, aluminum, nickel, lead, and tin on January 22, 2026 [1][3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Cross - Market Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: Spot domestic price is 100125, LME price is 12877, and the ratio is 7.81; March domestic price is 101450, LME price is 12907, and the ratio is 7.80. The equilibrium ratio for spot import is 7.90, with a profit of - 1047.36, and the profit for spot export is 560.57 [1] - **Zinc**: Spot domestic price is 24200, LME price is 3155, and the ratio is 7.67; March domestic price is 24385, LME price is 3195, and the ratio is 5.34. The equilibrium ratio for spot import is 8.32, with a profit of - 2060.52 [1] - **Aluminum**: Spot domestic price is 23710, LME price is 3123, and the ratio is 7.59; March domestic price is 24205, LME price is 3137, and the ratio is 7.63. The equilibrium ratio for spot import is 8.32, with a profit of - 2271.71 [1] - **Nickel**: Spot domestic price is 139650, LME price is 17864, and the ratio is 7.82. The equilibrium ratio for spot import is 7.99, with a profit of - 203.17 [1] - **Lead**: Spot domestic price is 16875, LME price is 1992, and the ratio is 8.47; March domestic price is 17165, LME price is 2039, and the ratio is 11.86. The equilibrium ratio for spot import is 8.54, with a profit of - 145.43 [3] Cross - Period Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads of次月 - 现货月, 三月 - 现货月, 四月 - 现货月, 五月 - 现货月 are 340, 510, 640, 620 respectively, and the theoretical spreads are 607, 1111, 1625, 2139 respectively [4] - **Zinc**: The spreads of次月 - 现货月, 三月 - 现货月, 四月 - 现货月, 五月 - 现货月 are - 15, 20, 30, 25 respectively, and the theoretical spreads are 225, 356, 486, 617 respectively [4] - **Aluminum**: The spreads of次月 - 现货月, 三月 - 现货月, 四月 - 现货月, 五月 - 现货月 are 275, 325, 355, 390 respectively, and the theoretical spreads are 230, 362, 493, 625 respectively [4] - **Lead**: The spreads of次月 - 现货月, 三月 - 现货月, 四月 - 现货月, 五月 - 现货月 are - 50, 0, 45, 50 respectively, and the theoretical spreads are 211, 318, 424, 531 respectively [4] - **Nickel**: The spreads of次月 - 现货月, 三月 - 现货月, 四月 - 现货月, 五月 - 现货月 are 1810, 2040, 2210, 2130 respectively [4] - **Tin**: The spread of 5 - 1 is 4100, and the theoretical spread is 8490 [4] Spot - Futures Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spread of当月合约 - 现货 is 915, and the theoretical spread is 632; the spread of次月合约 - 现货 is 1255, and the theoretical spread is 1234 [4] - **Zinc**: The spread of当月合约 - 现货 is 165, and the theoretical spread is 208; the spread of次月合约 - 现货 is 150, and the theoretical spread is 389 [5] - **Lead**: The spread of当月合约 - 现货 is 290, and the theoretical spread is 205; the spread of次月合约 - 现货 is 240, and the theoretical spread is 317 [5] Cross - Variety Arbitrage Tracking - The ratios of copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, lead/zinc are 4.16, 4.19, 5.91, 0.99, 1.41, 0.70 respectively in Shanghai (triple - continuous), and 4.03, 4.11, 6.34, 0.98, 1.54, 0.64 respectively in London (triple - continuous) [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Report's Core View - The report provides cross - market, cross - period, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking data for various non - ferrous metals including copper, zinc, aluminum, nickel, lead, and tin on December 3, 2025 Summary by Relevant Catalogs Cross - Market Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: On December 3, 2025, the domestic spot price was 88650, the LME spot price was 11263, and the spot price ratio was 7.93. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.03, with a loss of 1557.87, and there was a profit of 1151.46 for spot export [1] - **Zinc**: The domestic spot price was 22730, the LME spot price was 3340, and the spot price ratio was 6.80. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.43, with a loss of 5428.02 [1] - **Aluminum**: The domestic spot price was 21810, the LME spot price was 2859, and the spot price ratio was 7.59. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.32, with a loss of 2077.67 [1] - **Nickel**: The domestic spot price was 119850, the LME spot price was 14720, and the spot price ratio was 8.14. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.13, with a loss of 1354.70 [1] - **Lead**: The domestic spot price was 17075, the LME spot price was 1963, and the spot price ratio was 8.69. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.68, with a profit of 16.01 [3] Cross - Period Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads between the next - month, three - month, four - month, and five - month contracts and the spot - month contract were - 290, - 280, - 270, and - 360 respectively, while the theoretical spreads were 548, 994, 1449, and 1904 [4] - **Zinc**: The spreads were 190, 220, 235, and 250, and the theoretical spreads were 216, 338, 459, and 581 [4] - **Aluminum**: The spreads were 95, 130, 140, and 150, and the theoretical spreads were 220, 341, 462, and 583 [4] - **Lead**: The spreads were 150, 115, 125, and 120, and the theoretical spreads were 210, 317, 423, and 529 [4] - **Nickel**: The spreads were 590, 820, 1010, and 1270 [4] - **Tin**: The spread between the 5 - month and 1 - month contracts was 150, and the theoretical spread was 6330 [4] Spot - Futures Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads between the current - month and next - month contracts and the spot were 625 and 335 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 363 and 810 [4] - **Zinc**: The spreads were - 175 and 15, and the theoretical spreads were 125 and 257 [4] - **Lead**: The spreads were - 15 and 135, and the theoretical spreads were 120 and 233 [5] Cross - Variety Arbitrage Tracking - On December 3, 2025, the ratios of copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, and lead/zinc for Shanghai (three - continuous contracts) were 3.90, 4.05, 5.18, 0.96, 1.28, and 0.75 respectively, and for LME (three - continuous contracts) were 3.64, 3.89, 5.59, 0.94, 1.44, and 0.65 respectively [5]

Report Information - Report Title: Non-ferrous Metals Arbitrage Weekly Report 20250922 [2] - Researchers: Zhang Jiefu, Wang Yanhong [2] - Investment Advisory Numbers: Z0016959, Z0010675 [2] - Email: zhangjf@zxqh.net, wangyh@zxqh.net [2] - Tel: 027 - 68851554 [2] Investment Ratings - No investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - For zinc's inter - period arbitrage, due to recent domestic smelting expansion, rapid accumulation of social inventory, and the zinc ore supply shifting from tight to loose cyclically, if there is no significant demand increase throughout the year, the supply - demand balance will tend towards surplus, putting pressure on the long - term price center. It is recommended to participate in zinc's inter - period positive arbitrage on dips [4]. - For the cross - variety arbitrage of aluminum and zinc, the zinc ore market is marginally loosening, with domestic smelting expanding and social inventory accumulating rapidly. The supply - demand balance is moving towards surplus. Meanwhile, the inflection point of aluminum's social inventory is approaching, and its fundamentals are stronger than zinc. It is recommended to participate in the strategy of going long on aluminum and short on zinc on dips [4]. Section Summaries 1. Weekly Price Performance Review and Capital Flow - **Price Review**: From September 12 to September 19, 2025, most non - ferrous metals on LME and SHFE showed price declines. LME copper dropped from 10067.5 to 9996.5, a decrease of 0.71%; LME zinc fell from 2956 to 2898.5, a decline of 1.95%. SHFE copper decreased from 81060 to 79910, a drop of 1.42%; SHFE zinc went down from 22305 to 22045, a decline of 1.17%. Only SHFE lead had a price increase, rising from 17040 to 17150, an increase of 0.65% [8]. - **Capital Flow**: The unilateral open interest of most non - ferrous metals is at a relatively low level in recent years. The unilateral open interest of aluminum has increased significantly recently. This week, the unilateral open interest of copper, aluminum, nickel, and tin decreased by 8.3%, 14.3%, 7.2%, and 6.3% respectively, while that of zinc and lead increased by 6.1% and 2.1% respectively. Except for zinc and lead, the main non - ferrous metals had net capital outflows this week [10]. 2. Non - ferrous Metal Inventory and Profit - **Inventory**: From September 12 to September 19, 2025, LME copper inventory decreased by 4.09% to 147650; LME aluminum inventory increased by 5.90% to 513900; LME zinc inventory decreased by 5.34% to 47825; LME lead inventory decreased by 4.04% to 220300; LME nickel inventory increased by 1.49% to 228444; LME tin inventory decreased by 4.39% to 2505 [26]. - **Profit**: This week, the processing fee of copper decreased slightly, and the smelter suffered a loss of 2426 yuan/ton, with the loss widening slightly compared to last week. The theoretical smelting cost of aluminum was 18320 yuan/ton, and the smelting profit rose slightly to 2520 yuan/ton. The import processing fee of zinc increased slightly, and the theoretical smelting profit of domestic zinc ore was 1040 yuan/ton [44]. 3. Non - ferrous Metal Basis and Term Structure - **Basis**: On September 19, 2025, the copper basis was 140, with a basis premium rate of 0.18%; the aluminum basis was 45, with a basis premium rate of 0.22%; the zinc basis was - 35, with a basis premium rate of - 0.16%; the lead basis was 110, with a basis premium rate of 0.64%; the nickel basis was 1520, with a basis premium rate of 1.25%; the tin basis was 240, with a basis premium rate of 0.09% [47]. - **Term Structure**: This week, zinc and nickel were in a Contango structure. The spread between the first - line contract and the near - month contract of copper was - 60, an increase of 240 compared to last week; that of aluminum was 15, an increase of 180; that of zinc was - 5, a decrease of 60; that of lead was 30, a decrease of 10; that of nickel was 230, an increase of 50; that of tin was 340, a decrease of 430 [62]. 4. Comparison of Domestic and Overseas Metal Prices - **Shanghai - London Ratio**: The Shanghai - London ratios of zinc and lead are at relatively high historical levels. This week, the Shanghai - London ratios of major metals showed mixed trends. The Shanghai - London ratios of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin were 1.12, 1.09, 1.07, 1.20, 1.12, and 1.10 respectively [79]. - **Import Profit and Loss**: This week, the import profit and loss of lead and nickel were 851 and 302 respectively, while those of other major metals were negative. Factors such as the Fed's interest - rate cut policy, the comparison of domestic and overseas inventories, and domestic macro - policy expectations should be considered for domestic - overseas arbitrage [79]. 5. Cross - variety Ratio Changes - **Ratio and Spread**: As of September 19, 2025, the copper - aluminum ratio was 3.84, with a ratio percentile of 83.9% and a spread of 59115; the copper - zinc ratio was 3.62, with a ratio percentile of 99.7% and a spread of 57865; the copper - lead ratio was 4.66, with a ratio percentile of 84.0% and a spread of 62760. The ratios and spreads of other metal combinations also showed different values and percentile positions compared to three months ago and one year ago [96].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the text. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For zinc's inter - period arbitrage, considering the supply pattern affected by the production cycle of zinc mines at home and abroad, zinc ore supply will cyclically shift from tight to abundant. If there are no major highlights in demand throughout the year, the supply - demand balance will tend to shift towards surplus, putting pressure on the long - term price center. It is recommended to participate in zinc's inter - period positive arbitrage by rolling at low prices [5]. - For the cross - variety arbitrage of aluminum and zinc, the aluminum social inventory is low, which supports the price. The fundamentals of aluminum are stronger than those of zinc. It is recommended to participate in the strategy of buying aluminum and shorting zinc by rolling at low prices [5]. Summary According to the Directory Part One: Weekly Price Performance Review and Fund Flow - **Weekly Price Review**: From August 15th to August 22nd, 2025, LME copper rose by 0.37% (from 9760 to 9796.5), LME aluminum by 0.73% (from 2603 to 2622), LME zinc by 0.32% (from 2796.5 to 2805.5), LME lead by 0.71% (from 1981 to 1995), LME tin by 0.70% (from 33610 to 33845), while LME nickel fell by 0.63% (from 15195 to 15100). SHFE copper fell by 0.47% (from 79060 to 78690), SHFE aluminum by 0.67% (from 20770 to 20630), SHFE zinc by 1.02% (from 22505 to 22275), SHFE lead by 0.42% (from 16850 to 16780), SHFE nickel by 0.82% (from 120600 to 119610), and SHFE tin by 0.33% (from 266820 to 265930) [9]. - **Fund Flow**: Most non - ferrous metals' single - side open interest is at a relatively low level in recent years. Copper's single - side open interest has increased significantly recently. This week, nickel's single - side open interest increased by 9.1% month - on - month, while those of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, and tin decreased by 1.3%, 4.3%, 1.9%, 3.8%, and 3.7% respectively. Except for nickel and tin, major non - ferrous metals had net capital outflows this week [11]. Part Two: Non - ferrous Metal Inventory and Profit Situation - **Inventory Situation**: As of August 22nd, 2025, compared with August 15th, LME copper inventory increased by 0.11% (from 155800 to 155975), LME aluminum inventory decreased by 0.17% (from 479550 to 478725), LME zinc inventory decreased by 10.81% (from 76325 to 68075), LME lead inventory increased by 4.58% (from 261100 to 273050), LME nickel inventory decreased by 0.90% (from 211662 to 209748), and LME tin inventory increased by 7.85% (from 1655 to 1785) [28]. - **Smelting Profit Situation**: This week, copper's processing fee decreased slightly month - on - month, and smelters suffered a loss of 2350 yuan/ton, with the loss widening slightly month - on - month. Aluminum's theoretical smelting cost was 18624 yuan/ton, and the smelting profit rose slightly to 2126 yuan/ton. Zinc's imported processing fee increased slightly month - on - month, and the theoretical smelting profit of domestic ore was 1230 yuan/ton [43]. Part Three: Non - ferrous Metal Basis and Term Structure - **Basis Situation**: On August 22nd, 2025, the copper basis was 320 (compared with 180 on August 15th), the aluminum basis was 120 (compared with - 90 on August 15th), the zinc basis was - 65 (compared with - 45 on August 15th), the lead basis was 60 (compared with - 10 on August 15th), the nickel basis was 1280 (compared with 1220 on August 15th), and the tin basis was 10 (compared with - 810 on August 15th) [46]. - **Term Structure**: This week, nickel and tin were in the Contango structure. Copper's spread between the first - nearby contract was - 40, an increase of 70 compared with last week; aluminum's spread was - 20, a decrease of 35 compared with last week; zinc's spread was 0, a decrease of 25 compared with last week; lead's spread was 0, a decrease of 90 compared with last week; nickel's spread was 150, a decrease of 50 compared with last week; tin's spread was 200, a decrease of 410 compared with last week [62]. Part Four: Comparison of Domestic and Overseas Metal Prices - **Domestic - to - Overseas Ratio**: The Shanghai - to - London ratios of zinc and lead are at relatively high historical levels. This week, the Shanghai - to - London ratios of major metals showed mixed trends. The Shanghai - to - London ratios of base metals were copper (1.12), aluminum (1.10), zinc (1.11), lead (1.17), nickel (1.10), and tin (1.09) [78]. - **Import Profit and Loss**: This week, the import profit and loss of copper and nickel were 103 and 415 respectively, while those of other major metals were negative. Cross - market arbitrage can focus on factors such as the Fed's interest - rate cut policy, the comparison of domestic and overseas inventories, and domestic macro - policy expectations [78]. Part Five: Cross - Variety Ratio Changes of Non - ferrous Metals - As of August 22nd, 2025, the copper - aluminum ratio was 3.81 (79.9% in terms of the ratio percentile), the copper - zinc ratio was 3.53 (97.6% in terms of the ratio percentile), the copper - lead ratio was 4.69 (89.6% in terms of the ratio percentile), the copper - nickel ratio was 1.52 (1.1% in terms of the ratio percentile), the copper - tin ratio was 3.38 (68.9% in terms of the ratio percentile), the zinc - aluminum ratio was 1.08 (5.1% in terms of the ratio percentile), the aluminum - lead ratio was 1.23 (74.3% in terms of the ratio percentile), the aluminum - nickel ratio was 5.80 (0.5% in terms of the ratio percentile), the aluminum - tin ratio was 12.89 (73.7% in terms of the ratio percentile), the zinc - lead ratio was 1.33 (30.5% in terms of the ratio percentile), the zinc - nickel ratio was 5.37 (9.9% in terms of the ratio percentile), the zinc - tin ratio was 11.94 (88.1% in terms of the ratio percentile), the lead - nickel ratio was 7.13 (7.0% in terms of the ratio percentile), the lead - tin ratio was 15.85 (79.2% in terms of the ratio percentile), and the nickel - tin ratio was 2.22 (98.9% in terms of the ratio percentile) [96].

Report Title - "Non-ferrous Metals Arbitrage Weekly Report 20250714" [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - For aluminum's inter - period reverse arbitrage, domestic demand is in the off - season, downstream enterprise operating rates are decreasing, orders are reducing, aluminum rods are continuously accumulating inventory, and there is a risk of aluminum prices rising and then falling in the near term. After the off - season ends, demand is expected to support aluminum prices again. It is recommended to participate in aluminum's inter - period reverse arbitrage on a low - rolling basis [4]. - For the long - aluminum and short - zinc strategy, domestic refined zinc output has significantly recovered, and new global zinc mine projects put into production this year are expected to gradually release incremental output. However, aluminum social inventory is low, which supports prices, and its fundamentals are stronger than zinc. It is recommended to participate in the long - aluminum and short - zinc strategy on a low - rolling basis [4]. Summary by Directory Part I: Weekly Price Performance Review and Capital Flow - **Weekly Price Review**: LME copper decreased from 9852 on 2025/7/4 to 9663 on 2025/7/11, a decrease of 1.92%; LME aluminum increased from 2597.5 to 2602, an increase of 0.17%; LME zinc increased from 2735.5 to 2738, an increase of 0.09%; LME lead decreased from 2057 to 2017, a decrease of 1.94%; LME nickel decreased from 15260 to 15235, a decrease of 0.16%; LME tin decreased from 33770 to 33565, a decrease of 0.61%. SHFE copper decreased from 79730 to 78430, a decrease of 1.63%; SHFE aluminum increased from 20635 to 20695, an increase of 0.29%; SHFE zinc decreased from 22410 to 22380, a decrease of 0.13%; SHFE lead decreased from 17295 to 17075, a decrease of 1.27%; SHFE nickel decreased from 122270 to 121390, a decrease of 0.72%; SHFE tin decreased from 267250 to 263940, a decrease of 1.24% [8]. - **Capital Flow**: Most non - ferrous metals' single - side open interest is at a relatively low level in recent years. Aluminum's single - side open interest has increased significantly recently. This week, lead's single - side open interest increased by 10.5% month - on - month, while copper, aluminum, nickel, and tin's single - side open interest decreased by 13.2%, 4.1%, 1.3%, and 9.8% respectively. Except for aluminum and lead, major non - ferrous metals had net capital outflows this week [10]. Part II: Non - ferrous Metals Inventory and Profit Situation - **Inventory Situation**: LME copper inventory increased from 95275 on 2025/7/4 to 108725 on 2025/7/11, a week - on - week increase of 14.12%; LME aluminum inventory increased from 363925 to 400275, an increase of 9.99%; LME zinc inventory decreased from 112325 to 105250, a decrease of 6.30%; LME lead inventory decreased from 263275 to 249375, a decrease of 5.28%; LME nickel inventory increased from 202470 to 206178, an increase of 1.83%; LME tin inventory decreased from 2110 to 1970, a decrease of 6.64% [26]. - **Profit Situation**: For copper, this week's processing fees increased slightly month - on - month, and smelters had a loss of 2440 yuan/ton, with the loss narrowing slightly month - on - month. For aluminum, this week's theoretical smelting cost was 18470 yuan/ton, and the smelting profit decreased slightly to 2290 yuan/ton. For zinc, this week's imported processing fees increased slightly month - on - month, and the theoretical smelting profit of domestic mines was 1126 yuan/ton [41]. Part III: Non - ferrous Metals Basis and Term Structure - **Basis**: On 2025/7/11, the copper basis was 400, the aluminum basis was 65, the zinc basis was 130, the lead basis was - 5, the nickel basis was 1170, and the tin basis was 2880. The basis premium rates were 0.51%, 0.31%, 0.58%, - 0.03%, 0.96%, and 1.09% respectively [44]. - **LME Premiums and Discounts**: The document provides historical data on LME copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin's 0 - 3 premiums and discounts from 2019 - 2025 [54]. - **Term Structure**: This week, nickel was in a Contango structure, and copper was in a Back structure. The spreads between the first - nearby contracts and the nearby contracts were as follows: for copper, it was - 140, an increase of 120 compared to last week; for aluminum, it was - 140, an increase of 40; for zinc, it was 45, an increase of 75; for lead, it was 30, a decrease of 25; for nickel, it was 90, a decrease of 30; for tin, it was 210, a decrease of 50 [61]. Part IV: Comparison of Domestic and Overseas Metal Prices - **Domestic - to - Overseas Ratio**: The domestic - to - overseas ratios of major non - ferrous metals were copper (1.13), aluminum (1.11), zinc (1.14), lead (1.18), nickel (1.11), and tin (1.10). This week, the domestic - to - overseas ratios of major metals showed mixed changes, and the zinc - to - lead domestic - to - overseas ratio was at a relatively high level in history [78]. - **Import Profit and Loss**: This week, the import profit and loss of lead and copper were 286 and 2.4 respectively, while the import profit and loss of other major metals were negative. Domestic - overseas arbitrage can focus on factors such as the Fed's interest - rate cut policy, the comparison of domestic and overseas inventories, and the expectation of domestic stable - growth policies [78]. Part V: Changes in Non - ferrous Metals Cross - variety Ratios - **Cross - variety Ratios and Differences**: The document provides the current values, values three months ago, and values one year ago of cross - variety ratios and differences such as copper - aluminum, copper - zinc, copper - lead, copper - nickel, copper - tin, zinc - aluminum, etc., as well as their respective ratio and difference quantiles [96].

Report Information - Report Title: Non-ferrous Metal Arbitrage Weekly Report 20250707 [2] - Researchers: Zhang Jiefu, Wang Yanhong [2] Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Views - For aluminum in the inter - period strategy, domestic demand has entered the off - season with reduced orders, aluminum rods are starting to accumulate inventory, and the inflection point of social inventory is approaching, so there is a risk of aluminum price rising and then falling. After the off - season, demand is expected to support the aluminum price again. It is recommended to participate in the inter - period reverse arbitrage of aluminum by rolling at low prices [4]. - For the cross - variety strategy of aluminum and zinc, domestic refined zinc output has significantly recovered, and new zinc mine projects globally are expected to gradually release incremental output this year. While aluminum social inventory is low, which supports the price, and its fundamentals are stronger than zinc. It is recommended to participate in the long - aluminum and short - zinc strategy by rolling at low prices [4]. Summary by Directory Part I: Weekly Price Performance Review and Fund Flow - **Price Review**: From June 27, 2025, to July 4, 2025, LME copper decreased by 0.27% (from 9879 to 9852), LME aluminum increased by 0.10% (from 2595 to 2597.5), LME zinc decreased by 1.55% (from 2778.5 to 2735.5), LME lead increased by 0.76% (from 2041.5 to 2057), LME nickel increased by 0.46% (from 15190 to 15260), LME tin increased by 0.61% (from 33565 to 33770). SHFE copper decreased by 0.24% (from 79920 to 79730), SHFE aluminum increased by 0.27% (from 20580 to 20635), SHFE zinc remained unchanged (at 22410), SHFE lead increased by 0.99% (from 17125 to 17295), SHFE nickel increased by 1.49% (from 120480 to 122270), and SHFE tin decreased by 0.60% (from 268870 to 267250) [8]. - **Fund Flow**: The unilateral positions of most non - ferrous metals are at relatively low levels in recent years. The unilateral positions of aluminum and lead increased by 3.0% and 4.3% respectively this week, while those of zinc, nickel, and tin decreased by 2.8%, 7.3%, and 7.2% respectively. Except for tin, major non - ferrous metals had net capital outflows this week [10]. Part II: Non - ferrous Metal Inventory and Profit - **Inventory**: From June 27, 2025, to July 4, 2025, LME copper inventory increased by 4.38% (from 91275 to 95275), LME aluminum inventory increased by 5.42% (from 345200 to 363925), LME zinc inventory decreased by 5.79% (from 119225 to 112325), LME lead inventory decreased by 3.71% (from 273425 to 263275), LME nickel inventory decreased by 0.89% (from 204294 to 202470), and LME tin inventory decreased by 2.99% (from 2175 to 2110) [27]. - **Profit**: For copper, the processing fee increased slightly this week, and smelters had a loss of 2592 yuan/ton, with the loss narrowing slightly compared to last week. For aluminum, the theoretical smelting cost this week was 18348 yuan/ton, and the smelting profit decreased slightly to 2402 yuan/ton. For zinc, the import processing fee increased slightly this week, and the theoretical smelting profit of domestic mines was 1112 yuan/ton [43]. Part III: Non - ferrous Metal Basis and Term Structure - **Basis**: As of July 4, 2025, the copper basis was 790 (compared to 420 on June 27), with a basis premium rate of 0.99%, a one - year basis quantile of 92.98%, and a three - year basis quantile of 85.12%. The aluminum basis was 115 (compared to 360 on June 27), with a basis premium rate of 0.56%, a one - year basis quantile of 80.79%, and a three - year basis quantile of 76.03%. The zinc basis was 80 (compared to 280 on June 27), with a basis premium rate of 0.36%, a one - year basis quantile of 35.54%, and a three - year basis quantile of 36.78%. The lead basis was - 35 (compared to 135 on June 27), with a basis premium rate of - 0.20%, a one - year basis quantile of 33.26%, and a three - year basis quantile of 36.43%. The nickel basis was 1590 (compared to 2060 on June 27), with a basis premium rate of 1.30%, a one - year basis quantile of 77.07%, and a three - year basis quantile of 42.70%. The tin basis was 570 (compared to 1340 on June 27), with a basis premium rate of 0.21%, a one - year basis quantile of 59.71%, and a three - year basis quantile of 56.47% [46]. - **Term Structure**: This week, nickel was in the Contango structure, while copper and zinc were in the Back structure. The spread between the first - nearby contract and the nearby contract of copper was - 260, a decrease of 100 compared to last week; that of aluminum was - 180, an increase of 20 compared to last week; that of zinc was - 30, an increase of 50 compared to last week; that of lead was 55, an increase of 5 compared to last week; that of nickel was 120, a decrease of 40 compared to last week; and that of tin was 260, a decrease of 60 compared to last week [62]. Part IV: Comparison of Domestic and Overseas Metal Prices - The Shanghai - London ratios of zinc and lead are at relatively high historical levels. This week, the Shanghai - London ratios of major non - ferrous metals showed mixed trends. The Shanghai - London ratios of basic metals were 1.13 for copper, 1.11 for aluminum, 1.14 for zinc, 1.17 for lead, 1.12 for nickel, and 1.10 for tin. This week, the import profit and loss of lead and nickel were 155 and 46 respectively, while those of other major metals were negative. Cross - market arbitrage can focus on factors such as the Fed's interest - rate cut policy, the comparison of domestic and overseas inventories, and the expectation of domestic growth - stabilizing policies [79]. Part V: Changes in Cross - variety Ratios of Non - ferrous Metals - The report provides the current values, values three months ago, and values one year ago of cross - variety ratios and differences for various non - ferrous metal combinations, including copper - aluminum, copper - zinc, copper - lead, etc., as well as their corresponding quantiles [96].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Views - For aluminum's inter - period arbitrage, domestic demand is entering the off - season with reduced orders, aluminum rods starting to accumulate inventory, and the social inventory inflection point approaching. There is a risk of aluminum price rising and then falling. After the off - season, demand is expected to support the aluminum price again. It is recommended to participate in aluminum's inter - period reverse arbitrage on dips [5]. - For the cross - variety arbitrage of aluminum and zinc, domestic refined zinc output has significantly recovered, and new global zinc mine projects put into production this year are expected to gradually release incremental output. While aluminum's social inventory is low, which supports the price and has a stronger fundamental than zinc. It is recommended to participate in the strategy of going long on aluminum and short on zinc on dips [5]. Summary by Directory Part I: Weekly Price Performance Review and Fund Flow - **Weekly Price Review**: From June 13 to June 20, 2025, LME aluminum rose 2.34%, LME zinc rose 0.86%, LME lead rose 0.13%, LME nickel fell 0.33%, LME tin fell 0.27%, SHFE copper fell 0.03%, SHFE aluminum rose 0.12%, SHFE zinc rose 0.14%, SHFE lead fell 0.80%, SHFE nickel fell 1.37%, and SHFE tin fell 1.19% [9]. - **Fund Flow**: Most non - ferrous metals' single - side open interest is at a relatively low level in recent years. Aluminum's single - side open interest has increased significantly recently. This week, the single - side open interest of aluminum, lead, and nickel increased by 7.3%, 1.9%, and 7.5% respectively, while that of copper, zinc, and tin decreased by 3.7%, 13.6%, and 7.2% respectively. All major non - ferrous metals had net capital outflows this week [11]. Part II: Non - Ferrous Metal Inventory and Profit - **Inventory**: From June 13 to June 20, 2025, LME copper inventory decreased by 13.34%, LME aluminum inventory decreased by 2.94%, LME zinc inventory decreased by 3.65%, LME lead inventory increased by 7.21%, LME nickel inventory increased by 3.85%, and LME tin inventory decreased by 3.76% [28]. - **Profit**: This week, copper's processing fee increased slightly month - on - month, and smelters' loss was 2,651 yuan/ton with a slightly narrowed loss month - on - month. Aluminum's theoretical smelting cost was 18,586 yuan/ton, and the smelting profit rose to 2,114 yuan/ton. Zinc's imported processing fee increased slightly month - on - month, and the theoretical smelting profit of domestic ore was 814 yuan/ton [43]. Part III: Non - Ferrous Metal Basis and Term Structure - **Basis**: On June 20, 2025, the copper basis was 500, the aluminum basis was 235, the zinc basis was 285, the lead basis was 190, the nickel basis was 2360, and the tin basis was 2510 [46]. - **LME Premium and Discount**: Data shows the historical trends of LME copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin's premium and discount (0 - 3) from 2019 to 2025 [54]. - **Term Structure**: This week, nickel was in the Contango structure, while copper and zinc were in the Back structure. Copper's continuous - one minus near - month spread was - 240, an increase of 100 compared to last week; aluminum's was - 95, an increase of 325; zinc's was - 170, an increase of 25; lead's was 35, unchanged from last week; nickel's was 140, an increase of 320; and tin's was - 50, a decrease of 440 [61]. Part IV: Comparison of Domestic and Overseas Metal Prices - **Shanghai - London Ratio**: Zinc and lead's Shanghai - London ratios are at historically high levels. This week, the Shanghai - London ratios of major base metals were 1.12 for copper, 1.11 for aluminum, 1.15 for zinc, 1.17 for lead, 1.09 for nickel, and 1.11 for tin [80]. - **Import Profit and Loss**: This week, lead's import profit and loss was 493, while that of other major metals was negative. Cross - market arbitrage can consider factors such as the Fed's interest - rate cut policy, the comparison of domestic and overseas inventories, and the expectation of domestic growth - stabilization policies [80]. Part V: Cross - Variety Ratio Changes - **Ratio and Spread Data**: Detailed data on the ratios and spreads of copper - aluminum, copper - zinc, copper - lead, copper - nickel, copper - tin, zinc - aluminum, aluminum - lead, aluminum - nickel, aluminum - tin, zinc - lead, zinc - nickel, zinc - tin, lead - nickel, lead - tin, and nickel - tin at the current time, three months ago, and one year ago are provided, including ratio values and their percentile rankings [97].

Report Information - Report Title: Non-ferrous Metals Arbitrage Weekly Report 20250616 [2] - Researchers: Zhang Jiefu, Wang Yanhong [2] - Investment Consultation Numbers: Z0010675, Z0016959 [2] - Email: wangyh@zxqh.net, zhangjf@zxqh.net [2] - Tel: 027 - 68851554 [2] Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views - Due to lackluster demand and the impact of the production cycle of domestic and foreign zinc mines, the fundamental pressure on zinc is gradually accumulating. The supply - demand balance of zinc tends to shift towards surplus. It is recommended to participate in the long - aluminum and short - zinc strategy on dips and consider the inter - period positive spread of zinc if the annual demand has no significant highlights [4] Section Summaries 1. Weekly Price Performance Review and Fund Flow - **Price Review**: From 2025/6/6 to 2025/6/13, LME copper decreased by 0.24%, LME aluminum increased by 2.10%, LME zinc decreased by 1.35%, LME lead increased by 0.94%, LME nickel decreased by 2.45%, LME tin increased by 1.63%. SHFE copper decreased by 1.17%, SHFE aluminum increased by 1.84%, SHFE zinc decreased by 2.55%, SHFE lead increased by 0.98%, SHFE nickel decreased by 1.87%, SHFE tin increased by 0.03% [8] - **Fund Flow**: Most non - ferrous metals' unilateral open interest is at a relatively low level in recent years. The unilateral open interest of aluminum, zinc, and nickel increased by 15.3%, 27.7%, and 7.0% respectively this week, while that of copper and lead decreased by 3.1% and 4.6% respectively. All major non - ferrous metals had net capital outflows this week [10] 2. Non - ferrous Metals Inventory and Profit - **Inventory**: From 2025/6/6 to 2025/6/13, LME copper inventory decreased by 13.54%, LME aluminum inventory decreased by 2.92%, LME zinc inventory decreased by 4.36%, LME lead inventory decreased by 5.80%, LME nickel inventory decreased by 1.28%, LME tin inventory decreased by 7.38% [26] - **Profit**: Copper processing fees decreased slightly week - on - week, and smelters' losses were 2,722 yuan/ton with little change in losses week - on - week. The theoretical smelting cost of aluminum was 18,773 yuan/ton, and the smelting profit rose to 1,987 yuan/ton. The imported processing fees of zinc were flat week - on - week, and the theoretical smelting profit of domestic zinc ore was 840 yuan/ton [41] 3. Non - ferrous Metals Basis and Term Structure - **Basis**: As of 2025/6/13, the copper basis was 1,080, the aluminum basis was 320, the zinc basis was 455, the lead basis was 15, the nickel basis was 1,920, and the tin basis was 1,990 [44] - **LME Premium/Discount**: Data on LME copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin premium/discount (0 - 3) is presented from 2019 - 2025 [52] - **Term Structure**: This week, nickel was in a Contango structure, while copper and zinc were in a Back structure. The spreads between the first - nearby contracts of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin changed compared to last week [59] 4. Comparison of Domestic and Overseas Metal Prices - **Domestic - to - Overseas Ratio**: The domestic - to - overseas ratios of zinc and lead are at relatively high historical levels. This week, the domestic - to - overseas ratios of major metals showed mixed changes. The ratios for copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin were 1.13, 1.14, 1.16, 1.18, 1.11, and 1.12 respectively [77] - **Import Profit/Loss**: This week, the import profit of lead was 321, while the import profits of other major metals were negative. Factors to consider for domestic - overseas arbitrage include the Fed's interest - rate cut policy, domestic and overseas inventory comparisons, and expectations of domestic growth - stabilizing policies [77] 5. Changes in Non - ferrous Metals Cross - variety Ratios - The report provides the current values, values three months ago, and values one year ago of cross - variety ratios and differences among copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin, along with their respective quantiles [94]

Report Information - Report Title: Non-ferrous Metal Arbitrage Weekly Report 20250512 [2] - Researchers: Zhang Jiefu, Wang Yanhong [2] - Investment Consulting Numbers: Z0016959, Z0010675 [2] - Email: wangyh@zxqh.net, zhangjf@zxqh.net [2] - Tel: 027 - 68851554 [2] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - For zinc's inter - period arbitrage, due to the easing of tariff disputes in atmosphere, smelters turning profitable, continuous rapid increase in TC, and the cyclical shift of zinc ore supply from tight to loose with new domestic and foreign zinc mines coming into production, it is recommended to participate in the inter - period positive arbitrage of zinc by rolling at low prices [4]. - For the cross - variety arbitrage of aluminum and zinc, as zinc mine projects are expected to gradually release incremental output and the fundamentals of aluminum are stronger than zinc, it is recommended to participate in the strategy of going long on aluminum and short on zinc by rolling at low prices [4]. Summary by Directory Part I: Weekly Price Performance Review and Capital Flow - **Weekly Price Review**: LME copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin prices increased week - on - week with increases of 3.51%, 0.75%, 2.35%, 1.23%, 2.50%, and 1.71% respectively; SHFE copper, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin prices changed by 0.30%, - 1.11%, - 0.21%, - 0.22%, and - 0.29% respectively, while SHFE aluminum price decreased by 1.63% [8]. - **Capital Flow**: Most non - ferrous metals' single - sided open interest is at a relatively low level in recent years, with aluminum's single - sided open interest increasing significantly recently. This week, the single - sided open interest of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin increased by 6.5%, 11.4%, 13.7%, 7.2%, 5.2%, and 4.5% respectively. Except for lead and nickel, major non - ferrous metals had net capital outflows [10]. Part II: Non - ferrous Metal Inventory and Profit Situation - **Inventory Situation**: LME copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin inventories decreased week - on - week with decreases of 4.18%, 2.89%, 2.82%, 4.58%, 1.81%, and 1.81% respectively [26]. - **Profit Situation**: This week, the processing fee of copper decreased slightly, and smelters' loss widened to 2921 yuan/ton; the theoretical smelting cost of aluminum was 17818 yuan/ton, and the smelting profit dropped to 1731 yuan/ton; the domestic processing fee of zinc increased by 50 yuan/ton compared with last week, and the theoretical smelting profit of domestic zinc ore was - 243 yuan/ton [43]. Part III: Non - ferrous Metal Basis and Term Structure - **Basis Situation**: As of May 9, 2025, the copper basis was 930 with a basis premium rate of 1.20%; the aluminum basis was - 35 with a basis premium rate of - 0.18%; the zinc basis was 550 with a basis premium rate of 2.48%; the lead basis was 5 with a basis premium rate of 0.03%; the nickel basis was 1160 with a basis premium rate of 0.94%; the tin basis was - 340 with a basis premium rate of - 0.13% [46]. - **Term Structure**: This week, nickel was in a Contango structure, while copper and zinc were in a Back structure. The spread between the first - line contract and the near - month contract of copper was - 510, a decrease of 280 compared with last week; that of aluminum was - 70, an increase of 5; that of zinc was - 385, a decrease of 145; that of lead was - 20, a decrease of 30; that of nickel was 210, remaining unchanged; that of tin was 240, an increase of 70 [62]. Part IV: Comparison of Domestic and Overseas Metal Prices - **Domestic - to - Overseas Ratio**: Zinc and lead's Shanghai - to - LME ratios are at relatively high historical levels. This week, the Shanghai - to - LME ratios of major metals showed mixed trends, with the ratios of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin being 1.13, 1.12, 1.15, 1.17, 1.08, and 1.12 respectively [81]. - **Import Profit and Loss**: This week, the import profit and loss of copper, zinc, and lead were 548, 93, and 269 respectively, while those of other major metals were negative. Cross - market arbitrage can focus on factors such as the Fed's interest - rate cut policy, the comparison of domestic and overseas inventories, and the expectation of domestic growth - stabilizing policies [81]. Part V: Changes in Cross - variety Ratios of Non - ferrous Metals - As of May 9, 2025, the copper - aluminum ratio was 3.95 with a ratio quantile of 96.8%; the copper - zinc ratio was 3.49 with a ratio quantile of 98.9%; the copper - lead ratio was 4.61 with a ratio quantile of 84.3%; the copper - nickel ratio was 1.59 with a ratio quantile of 0.3%; the copper - tin ratio was 3.35 with a ratio quantile of 68.8%; the zinc - aluminum ratio was 1.13 with a ratio quantile of 25.7%; the aluminum - lead ratio was 1.17 with a ratio quantile of 36.2%; the aluminum - nickel ratio was 6.30 with a ratio quantile of 10.1%; the aluminum - tin ratio was 13.25 with a ratio quantile of 83.6%; the zinc - lead ratio was 1.32 with a ratio quantile of 31.3%; the zinc - nickel ratio was 5.56 with a ratio quantile of 14.5%; the zinc - tin ratio was 11.70 with a ratio quantile of 87.8%; the lead - nickel ratio was 7.35 with a ratio quantile of 9.5%; the lead - tin ratio was 15.44 with a ratio quantile of 72.8%; the nickel - tin ratio was 2.10 with a ratio quantile of 97.1% [98].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View The report presents the cross - market, cross - period, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking data of non - ferrous metals (copper, zinc, aluminum, nickel, lead, tin) on May 6, 2025, including domestic and LME prices, price ratios, spreads, equilibrium price ratios, and theoretical spreads [1][3][4]. 3) Summary by Category Cross - Market Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: On May 6, 2025, the domestic spot price was 77,930 with an LME price of 9,333 and a ratio of 8.32; the three - month domestic price was 76,830 with an LME price of 9,340 and a ratio of 8.30. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.32, with a loss of 118.83. The loss for spot export was 513.50 [1]. - **Zinc**: The domestic spot price was 22,910 with an LME price of 2,603 and a ratio of 8.80; the three - month domestic price was 22,195 with an LME price of 2,639 and a ratio of 6.38. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.80, with a loss of 4.26 [1]. - **Aluminum**: The domestic spot price was 20,070 with an LME price of 2,423 and a ratio of 8.28; the three - month domestic price was 19,840 with an LME price of 2,451 and a ratio of 8.15. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.83, with a loss of 1,352.12 [1]. - **Nickel**: The domestic spot price was 125,200 with an LME price of 15,376 and a ratio of 8.14. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.36, with a loss of 4,414.56 [1]. - **Lead**: The domestic spot price was 16,775 with an LME price of 1,961 and a ratio of 8.52; the three - month domestic price was 16,870 with an LME price of 1,972 and a ratio of 11.41. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 9.01, with a loss of 971.10 [3]. Cross - Period Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: On May 6, 2025, the spreads for the next - month, three - month, four - month, and five - month relative to the spot month were - 230, - 620, - 950, and - 1210 respectively, while the theoretical spreads were 489, 877, 1273, and 1669 [4]. - **Zinc**: The spreads were - 225, - 470, - 600, and - 675; the theoretical spreads were 216, 339, 461, and 583 [4]. - **Aluminum**: The spreads were - 65, - 135, - 145, and - 210; the theoretical spreads were 211, 323, 435, and 547 [4]. - **Lead**: The spreads were 40, 70, 70, and 50; the theoretical spreads were 209, 314, 419, and 524 [4]. - **Nickel**: The spreads were 20, 180, 420, and 580 [4]. - **Tin**: The spread for 5 - 1 was - 490, and the theoretical spread was 5390 [4]. Cross - Variety Arbitrage Tracking - The price ratios of copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, and lead/zinc in Shanghai (three - continuous) were 3.46, 3.87, 4.55, 0.89, 1.18, and 0.76 respectively; in London (three - continuous) were 3.52, 3.80, 4.66, 0.93, 1.23, and 0.76 [5]. Spot - Futures Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads of the current - month and next - month contracts relative to the spot were - 485 and - 715, while the theoretical spreads were 212 and 610 [4]. - **Zinc**: The spreads were - 245 and - 470; the theoretical spreads were 64 and 197 [4]. - **Lead**: The spreads were 25 and 65; the theoretical spreads were 132 and 244 [5].