Report Information - Report Title: Non-ferrous Metals Arbitrage Weekly Report 20250922 [2] - Researchers: Zhang Jiefu, Wang Yanhong [2] - Investment Advisory Numbers: Z0016959, Z0010675 [2] - Email: zhangjf@zxqh.net, wangyh@zxqh.net [2] - Tel: 027 - 68851554 [2] Investment Ratings - No investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - For zinc's inter - period arbitrage, due to recent domestic smelting expansion, rapid accumulation of social inventory, and the zinc ore supply shifting from tight to loose cyclically, if there is no significant demand increase throughout the year, the supply - demand balance will tend towards surplus, putting pressure on the long - term price center. It is recommended to participate in zinc's inter - period positive arbitrage on dips [4]. - For the cross - variety arbitrage of aluminum and zinc, the zinc ore market is marginally loosening, with domestic smelting expanding and social inventory accumulating rapidly. The supply - demand balance is moving towards surplus. Meanwhile, the inflection point of aluminum's social inventory is approaching, and its fundamentals are stronger than zinc. It is recommended to participate in the strategy of going long on aluminum and short on zinc on dips [4]. Section Summaries 1. Weekly Price Performance Review and Capital Flow - **Price Review**: From September 12 to September 19, 2025, most non - ferrous metals on LME and SHFE showed price declines. LME copper dropped from 10067.5 to 9996.5, a decrease of 0.71%; LME zinc fell from 2956 to 2898.5, a decline of 1.95%. SHFE copper decreased from 81060 to 79910, a drop of 1.42%; SHFE zinc went down from 22305 to 22045, a decline of 1.17%. Only SHFE lead had a price increase, rising from 17040 to 17150, an increase of 0.65% [8]. - **Capital Flow**: The unilateral open interest of most non - ferrous metals is at a relatively low level in recent years. The unilateral open interest of aluminum has increased significantly recently. This week, the unilateral open interest of copper, aluminum, nickel, and tin decreased by 8.3%, 14.3%, 7.2%, and 6.3% respectively, while that of zinc and lead increased by 6.1% and 2.1% respectively. Except for zinc and lead, the main non - ferrous metals had net capital outflows this week [10]. 2. Non - ferrous Metal Inventory and Profit - **Inventory**: From September 12 to September 19, 2025, LME copper inventory decreased by 4.09% to 147650; LME aluminum inventory increased by 5.90% to 513900; LME zinc inventory decreased by 5.34% to 47825; LME lead inventory decreased by 4.04% to 220300; LME nickel inventory increased by 1.49% to 228444; LME tin inventory decreased by 4.39% to 2505 [26]. - **Profit**: This week, the processing fee of copper decreased slightly, and the smelter suffered a loss of 2426 yuan/ton, with the loss widening slightly compared to last week. The theoretical smelting cost of aluminum was 18320 yuan/ton, and the smelting profit rose slightly to 2520 yuan/ton. The import processing fee of zinc increased slightly, and the theoretical smelting profit of domestic zinc ore was 1040 yuan/ton [44]. 3. Non - ferrous Metal Basis and Term Structure - **Basis**: On September 19, 2025, the copper basis was 140, with a basis premium rate of 0.18%; the aluminum basis was 45, with a basis premium rate of 0.22%; the zinc basis was - 35, with a basis premium rate of - 0.16%; the lead basis was 110, with a basis premium rate of 0.64%; the nickel basis was 1520, with a basis premium rate of 1.25%; the tin basis was 240, with a basis premium rate of 0.09% [47]. - **Term Structure**: This week, zinc and nickel were in a Contango structure. The spread between the first - line contract and the near - month contract of copper was - 60, an increase of 240 compared to last week; that of aluminum was 15, an increase of 180; that of zinc was - 5, a decrease of 60; that of lead was 30, a decrease of 10; that of nickel was 230, an increase of 50; that of tin was 340, a decrease of 430 [62]. 4. Comparison of Domestic and Overseas Metal Prices - **Shanghai - London Ratio**: The Shanghai - London ratios of zinc and lead are at relatively high historical levels. This week, the Shanghai - London ratios of major metals showed mixed trends. The Shanghai - London ratios of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin were 1.12, 1.09, 1.07, 1.20, 1.12, and 1.10 respectively [79]. - **Import Profit and Loss**: This week, the import profit and loss of lead and nickel were 851 and 302 respectively, while those of other major metals were negative. Factors such as the Fed's interest - rate cut policy, the comparison of domestic and overseas inventories, and domestic macro - policy expectations should be considered for domestic - overseas arbitrage [79]. 5. Cross - variety Ratio Changes - **Ratio and Spread**: As of September 19, 2025, the copper - aluminum ratio was 3.84, with a ratio percentile of 83.9% and a spread of 59115; the copper - zinc ratio was 3.62, with a ratio percentile of 99.7% and a spread of 57865; the copper - lead ratio was 4.66, with a ratio percentile of 84.0% and a spread of 62760. The ratios and spreads of other metal combinations also showed different values and percentile positions compared to three months ago and one year ago [96].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the text. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For zinc's inter - period arbitrage, considering the supply pattern affected by the production cycle of zinc mines at home and abroad, zinc ore supply will cyclically shift from tight to abundant. If there are no major highlights in demand throughout the year, the supply - demand balance will tend to shift towards surplus, putting pressure on the long - term price center. It is recommended to participate in zinc's inter - period positive arbitrage by rolling at low prices [5]. - For the cross - variety arbitrage of aluminum and zinc, the aluminum social inventory is low, which supports the price. The fundamentals of aluminum are stronger than those of zinc. It is recommended to participate in the strategy of buying aluminum and shorting zinc by rolling at low prices [5]. Summary According to the Directory Part One: Weekly Price Performance Review and Fund Flow - **Weekly Price Review**: From August 15th to August 22nd, 2025, LME copper rose by 0.37% (from 9760 to 9796.5), LME aluminum by 0.73% (from 2603 to 2622), LME zinc by 0.32% (from 2796.5 to 2805.5), LME lead by 0.71% (from 1981 to 1995), LME tin by 0.70% (from 33610 to 33845), while LME nickel fell by 0.63% (from 15195 to 15100). SHFE copper fell by 0.47% (from 79060 to 78690), SHFE aluminum by 0.67% (from 20770 to 20630), SHFE zinc by 1.02% (from 22505 to 22275), SHFE lead by 0.42% (from 16850 to 16780), SHFE nickel by 0.82% (from 120600 to 119610), and SHFE tin by 0.33% (from 266820 to 265930) [9]. - **Fund Flow**: Most non - ferrous metals' single - side open interest is at a relatively low level in recent years. Copper's single - side open interest has increased significantly recently. This week, nickel's single - side open interest increased by 9.1% month - on - month, while those of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, and tin decreased by 1.3%, 4.3%, 1.9%, 3.8%, and 3.7% respectively. Except for nickel and tin, major non - ferrous metals had net capital outflows this week [11]. Part Two: Non - ferrous Metal Inventory and Profit Situation - **Inventory Situation**: As of August 22nd, 2025, compared with August 15th, LME copper inventory increased by 0.11% (from 155800 to 155975), LME aluminum inventory decreased by 0.17% (from 479550 to 478725), LME zinc inventory decreased by 10.81% (from 76325 to 68075), LME lead inventory increased by 4.58% (from 261100 to 273050), LME nickel inventory decreased by 0.90% (from 211662 to 209748), and LME tin inventory increased by 7.85% (from 1655 to 1785) [28]. - **Smelting Profit Situation**: This week, copper's processing fee decreased slightly month - on - month, and smelters suffered a loss of 2350 yuan/ton, with the loss widening slightly month - on - month. Aluminum's theoretical smelting cost was 18624 yuan/ton, and the smelting profit rose slightly to 2126 yuan/ton. Zinc's imported processing fee increased slightly month - on - month, and the theoretical smelting profit of domestic ore was 1230 yuan/ton [43]. Part Three: Non - ferrous Metal Basis and Term Structure - **Basis Situation**: On August 22nd, 2025, the copper basis was 320 (compared with 180 on August 15th), the aluminum basis was 120 (compared with - 90 on August 15th), the zinc basis was - 65 (compared with - 45 on August 15th), the lead basis was 60 (compared with - 10 on August 15th), the nickel basis was 1280 (compared with 1220 on August 15th), and the tin basis was 10 (compared with - 810 on August 15th) [46]. - **Term Structure**: This week, nickel and tin were in the Contango structure. Copper's spread between the first - nearby contract was - 40, an increase of 70 compared with last week; aluminum's spread was - 20, a decrease of 35 compared with last week; zinc's spread was 0, a decrease of 25 compared with last week; lead's spread was 0, a decrease of 90 compared with last week; nickel's spread was 150, a decrease of 50 compared with last week; tin's spread was 200, a decrease of 410 compared with last week [62]. Part Four: Comparison of Domestic and Overseas Metal Prices - **Domestic - to - Overseas Ratio**: The Shanghai - to - London ratios of zinc and lead are at relatively high historical levels. This week, the Shanghai - to - London ratios of major metals showed mixed trends. The Shanghai - to - London ratios of base metals were copper (1.12), aluminum (1.10), zinc (1.11), lead (1.17), nickel (1.10), and tin (1.09) [78]. - **Import Profit and Loss**: This week, the import profit and loss of copper and nickel were 103 and 415 respectively, while those of other major metals were negative. Cross - market arbitrage can focus on factors such as the Fed's interest - rate cut policy, the comparison of domestic and overseas inventories, and domestic macro - policy expectations [78]. Part Five: Cross - Variety Ratio Changes of Non - ferrous Metals - As of August 22nd, 2025, the copper - aluminum ratio was 3.81 (79.9% in terms of the ratio percentile), the copper - zinc ratio was 3.53 (97.6% in terms of the ratio percentile), the copper - lead ratio was 4.69 (89.6% in terms of the ratio percentile), the copper - nickel ratio was 1.52 (1.1% in terms of the ratio percentile), the copper - tin ratio was 3.38 (68.9% in terms of the ratio percentile), the zinc - aluminum ratio was 1.08 (5.1% in terms of the ratio percentile), the aluminum - lead ratio was 1.23 (74.3% in terms of the ratio percentile), the aluminum - nickel ratio was 5.80 (0.5% in terms of the ratio percentile), the aluminum - tin ratio was 12.89 (73.7% in terms of the ratio percentile), the zinc - lead ratio was 1.33 (30.5% in terms of the ratio percentile), the zinc - nickel ratio was 5.37 (9.9% in terms of the ratio percentile), the zinc - tin ratio was 11.94 (88.1% in terms of the ratio percentile), the lead - nickel ratio was 7.13 (7.0% in terms of the ratio percentile), the lead - tin ratio was 15.85 (79.2% in terms of the ratio percentile), and the nickel - tin ratio was 2.22 (98.9% in terms of the ratio percentile) [96].

有色金属套利周报20250714 研究员：张杰夫 研究员：王艳红 投资咨询号:Z0016959 投资咨询号：Z0010675 Email：wangyh@zxqh.net Tel：027-68851554 Email：zhangjf@zxqh.net Tel：027-68851554 套利策略 | | 品 种 | 策 略 | 核心观点 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 国内需求进入淡季 下游企业开工率趋降 ， ， 订单量减少 铝棒持续累库 社库拐点临 。 ， | | 跨 期 | 铝 | 套 反 | 近 铝价有冲高回落的风险 而淡季结束 ， 。 | | | | | 后 需求有望重新为铝价提供支撑 建议逢 ， ， | | | | | 低滚动参与铝的跨期反套 。 | | | | | 国内精炼锌产出明显恢复 年内全球新投产 ， | | | | | 锌矿项目有望逐步释放增量 而铝社库偏低 ， | | 跨品种 | 铝&锌 | 多铝空锌 | 对价格存有支撑 基本面强于锌 建议逢低 | | | | | ， ， | | | | | 滚动参与多铝空锌 。 | 2 第一部分：周度价格表现回顾与资 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Non-ferrous Metal Arbitrage Weekly Report 20250707 [2] - Researchers: Zhang Jiefu, Wang Yanhong [2] Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Views - For aluminum in the inter - period strategy, domestic demand has entered the off - season with reduced orders, aluminum rods are starting to accumulate inventory, and the inflection point of social inventory is approaching, so there is a risk of aluminum price rising and then falling. After the off - season, demand is expected to support the aluminum price again. It is recommended to participate in the inter - period reverse arbitrage of aluminum by rolling at low prices [4]. - For the cross - variety strategy of aluminum and zinc, domestic refined zinc output has significantly recovered, and new zinc mine projects globally are expected to gradually release incremental output this year. While aluminum social inventory is low, which supports the price, and its fundamentals are stronger than zinc. It is recommended to participate in the long - aluminum and short - zinc strategy by rolling at low prices [4]. Summary by Directory Part I: Weekly Price Performance Review and Fund Flow - **Price Review**: From June 27, 2025, to July 4, 2025, LME copper decreased by 0.27% (from 9879 to 9852), LME aluminum increased by 0.10% (from 2595 to 2597.5), LME zinc decreased by 1.55% (from 2778.5 to 2735.5), LME lead increased by 0.76% (from 2041.5 to 2057), LME nickel increased by 0.46% (from 15190 to 15260), LME tin increased by 0.61% (from 33565 to 33770). SHFE copper decreased by 0.24% (from 79920 to 79730), SHFE aluminum increased by 0.27% (from 20580 to 20635), SHFE zinc remained unchanged (at 22410), SHFE lead increased by 0.99% (from 17125 to 17295), SHFE nickel increased by 1.49% (from 120480 to 122270), and SHFE tin decreased by 0.60% (from 268870 to 267250) [8]. - **Fund Flow**: The unilateral positions of most non - ferrous metals are at relatively low levels in recent years. The unilateral positions of aluminum and lead increased by 3.0% and 4.3% respectively this week, while those of zinc, nickel, and tin decreased by 2.8%, 7.3%, and 7.2% respectively. Except for tin, major non - ferrous metals had net capital outflows this week [10]. Part II: Non - ferrous Metal Inventory and Profit - **Inventory**: From June 27, 2025, to July 4, 2025, LME copper inventory increased by 4.38% (from 91275 to 95275), LME aluminum inventory increased by 5.42% (from 345200 to 363925), LME zinc inventory decreased by 5.79% (from 119225 to 112325), LME lead inventory decreased by 3.71% (from 273425 to 263275), LME nickel inventory decreased by 0.89% (from 204294 to 202470), and LME tin inventory decreased by 2.99% (from 2175 to 2110) [27]. - **Profit**: For copper, the processing fee increased slightly this week, and smelters had a loss of 2592 yuan/ton, with the loss narrowing slightly compared to last week. For aluminum, the theoretical smelting cost this week was 18348 yuan/ton, and the smelting profit decreased slightly to 2402 yuan/ton. For zinc, the import processing fee increased slightly this week, and the theoretical smelting profit of domestic mines was 1112 yuan/ton [43]. Part III: Non - ferrous Metal Basis and Term Structure - **Basis**: As of July 4, 2025, the copper basis was 790 (compared to 420 on June 27), with a basis premium rate of 0.99%, a one - year basis quantile of 92.98%, and a three - year basis quantile of 85.12%. The aluminum basis was 115 (compared to 360 on June 27), with a basis premium rate of 0.56%, a one - year basis quantile of 80.79%, and a three - year basis quantile of 76.03%. The zinc basis was 80 (compared to 280 on June 27), with a basis premium rate of 0.36%, a one - year basis quantile of 35.54%, and a three - year basis quantile of 36.78%. The lead basis was - 35 (compared to 135 on June 27), with a basis premium rate of - 0.20%, a one - year basis quantile of 33.26%, and a three - year basis quantile of 36.43%. The nickel basis was 1590 (compared to 2060 on June 27), with a basis premium rate of 1.30%, a one - year basis quantile of 77.07%, and a three - year basis quantile of 42.70%. The tin basis was 570 (compared to 1340 on June 27), with a basis premium rate of 0.21%, a one - year basis quantile of 59.71%, and a three - year basis quantile of 56.47% [46]. - **Term Structure**: This week, nickel was in the Contango structure, while copper and zinc were in the Back structure. The spread between the first - nearby contract and the nearby contract of copper was - 260, a decrease of 100 compared to last week; that of aluminum was - 180, an increase of 20 compared to last week; that of zinc was - 30, an increase of 50 compared to last week; that of lead was 55, an increase of 5 compared to last week; that of nickel was 120, a decrease of 40 compared to last week; and that of tin was 260, a decrease of 60 compared to last week [62]. Part IV: Comparison of Domestic and Overseas Metal Prices - The Shanghai - London ratios of zinc and lead are at relatively high historical levels. This week, the Shanghai - London ratios of major non - ferrous metals showed mixed trends. The Shanghai - London ratios of basic metals were 1.13 for copper, 1.11 for aluminum, 1.14 for zinc, 1.17 for lead, 1.12 for nickel, and 1.10 for tin. This week, the import profit and loss of lead and nickel were 155 and 46 respectively, while those of other major metals were negative. Cross - market arbitrage can focus on factors such as the Fed's interest - rate cut policy, the comparison of domestic and overseas inventories, and the expectation of domestic growth - stabilizing policies [79]. Part V: Changes in Cross - variety Ratios of Non - ferrous Metals - The report provides the current values, values three months ago, and values one year ago of cross - variety ratios and differences for various non - ferrous metal combinations, including copper - aluminum, copper - zinc, copper - lead, etc., as well as their corresponding quantiles [96].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Views - For aluminum's inter - period arbitrage, domestic demand is entering the off - season with reduced orders, aluminum rods starting to accumulate inventory, and the social inventory inflection point approaching. There is a risk of aluminum price rising and then falling. After the off - season, demand is expected to support the aluminum price again. It is recommended to participate in aluminum's inter - period reverse arbitrage on dips [5]. - For the cross - variety arbitrage of aluminum and zinc, domestic refined zinc output has significantly recovered, and new global zinc mine projects put into production this year are expected to gradually release incremental output. While aluminum's social inventory is low, which supports the price and has a stronger fundamental than zinc. It is recommended to participate in the strategy of going long on aluminum and short on zinc on dips [5]. Summary by Directory Part I: Weekly Price Performance Review and Fund Flow - **Weekly Price Review**: From June 13 to June 20, 2025, LME aluminum rose 2.34%, LME zinc rose 0.86%, LME lead rose 0.13%, LME nickel fell 0.33%, LME tin fell 0.27%, SHFE copper fell 0.03%, SHFE aluminum rose 0.12%, SHFE zinc rose 0.14%, SHFE lead fell 0.80%, SHFE nickel fell 1.37%, and SHFE tin fell 1.19% [9]. - **Fund Flow**: Most non - ferrous metals' single - side open interest is at a relatively low level in recent years. Aluminum's single - side open interest has increased significantly recently. This week, the single - side open interest of aluminum, lead, and nickel increased by 7.3%, 1.9%, and 7.5% respectively, while that of copper, zinc, and tin decreased by 3.7%, 13.6%, and 7.2% respectively. All major non - ferrous metals had net capital outflows this week [11]. Part II: Non - Ferrous Metal Inventory and Profit - **Inventory**: From June 13 to June 20, 2025, LME copper inventory decreased by 13.34%, LME aluminum inventory decreased by 2.94%, LME zinc inventory decreased by 3.65%, LME lead inventory increased by 7.21%, LME nickel inventory increased by 3.85%, and LME tin inventory decreased by 3.76% [28]. - **Profit**: This week, copper's processing fee increased slightly month - on - month, and smelters' loss was 2,651 yuan/ton with a slightly narrowed loss month - on - month. Aluminum's theoretical smelting cost was 18,586 yuan/ton, and the smelting profit rose to 2,114 yuan/ton. Zinc's imported processing fee increased slightly month - on - month, and the theoretical smelting profit of domestic ore was 814 yuan/ton [43]. Part III: Non - Ferrous Metal Basis and Term Structure - **Basis**: On June 20, 2025, the copper basis was 500, the aluminum basis was 235, the zinc basis was 285, the lead basis was 190, the nickel basis was 2360, and the tin basis was 2510 [46]. - **LME Premium and Discount**: Data shows the historical trends of LME copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin's premium and discount (0 - 3) from 2019 to 2025 [54]. - **Term Structure**: This week, nickel was in the Contango structure, while copper and zinc were in the Back structure. Copper's continuous - one minus near - month spread was - 240, an increase of 100 compared to last week; aluminum's was - 95, an increase of 325; zinc's was - 170, an increase of 25; lead's was 35, unchanged from last week; nickel's was 140, an increase of 320; and tin's was - 50, a decrease of 440 [61]. Part IV: Comparison of Domestic and Overseas Metal Prices - **Shanghai - London Ratio**: Zinc and lead's Shanghai - London ratios are at historically high levels. This week, the Shanghai - London ratios of major base metals were 1.12 for copper, 1.11 for aluminum, 1.15 for zinc, 1.17 for lead, 1.09 for nickel, and 1.11 for tin [80]. - **Import Profit and Loss**: This week, lead's import profit and loss was 493, while that of other major metals was negative. Cross - market arbitrage can consider factors such as the Fed's interest - rate cut policy, the comparison of domestic and overseas inventories, and the expectation of domestic growth - stabilization policies [80]. Part V: Cross - Variety Ratio Changes - **Ratio and Spread Data**: Detailed data on the ratios and spreads of copper - aluminum, copper - zinc, copper - lead, copper - nickel, copper - tin, zinc - aluminum, aluminum - lead, aluminum - nickel, aluminum - tin, zinc - lead, zinc - nickel, zinc - tin, lead - nickel, lead - tin, and nickel - tin at the current time, three months ago, and one year ago are provided, including ratio values and their percentile rankings [97].

Report Information - Report Title: Non-ferrous Metals Arbitrage Weekly Report 20250616 [2] - Researchers: Zhang Jiefu, Wang Yanhong [2] - Investment Consultation Numbers: Z0010675, Z0016959 [2] - Email: wangyh@zxqh.net, zhangjf@zxqh.net [2] - Tel: 027 - 68851554 [2] Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views - Due to lackluster demand and the impact of the production cycle of domestic and foreign zinc mines, the fundamental pressure on zinc is gradually accumulating. The supply - demand balance of zinc tends to shift towards surplus. It is recommended to participate in the long - aluminum and short - zinc strategy on dips and consider the inter - period positive spread of zinc if the annual demand has no significant highlights [4] Section Summaries 1. Weekly Price Performance Review and Fund Flow - **Price Review**: From 2025/6/6 to 2025/6/13, LME copper decreased by 0.24%, LME aluminum increased by 2.10%, LME zinc decreased by 1.35%, LME lead increased by 0.94%, LME nickel decreased by 2.45%, LME tin increased by 1.63%. SHFE copper decreased by 1.17%, SHFE aluminum increased by 1.84%, SHFE zinc decreased by 2.55%, SHFE lead increased by 0.98%, SHFE nickel decreased by 1.87%, SHFE tin increased by 0.03% [8] - **Fund Flow**: Most non - ferrous metals' unilateral open interest is at a relatively low level in recent years. The unilateral open interest of aluminum, zinc, and nickel increased by 15.3%, 27.7%, and 7.0% respectively this week, while that of copper and lead decreased by 3.1% and 4.6% respectively. All major non - ferrous metals had net capital outflows this week [10] 2. Non - ferrous Metals Inventory and Profit - **Inventory**: From 2025/6/6 to 2025/6/13, LME copper inventory decreased by 13.54%, LME aluminum inventory decreased by 2.92%, LME zinc inventory decreased by 4.36%, LME lead inventory decreased by 5.80%, LME nickel inventory decreased by 1.28%, LME tin inventory decreased by 7.38% [26] - **Profit**: Copper processing fees decreased slightly week - on - week, and smelters' losses were 2,722 yuan/ton with little change in losses week - on - week. The theoretical smelting cost of aluminum was 18,773 yuan/ton, and the smelting profit rose to 1,987 yuan/ton. The imported processing fees of zinc were flat week - on - week, and the theoretical smelting profit of domestic zinc ore was 840 yuan/ton [41] 3. Non - ferrous Metals Basis and Term Structure - **Basis**: As of 2025/6/13, the copper basis was 1,080, the aluminum basis was 320, the zinc basis was 455, the lead basis was 15, the nickel basis was 1,920, and the tin basis was 1,990 [44] - **LME Premium/Discount**: Data on LME copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin premium/discount (0 - 3) is presented from 2019 - 2025 [52] - **Term Structure**: This week, nickel was in a Contango structure, while copper and zinc were in a Back structure. The spreads between the first - nearby contracts of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin changed compared to last week [59] 4. Comparison of Domestic and Overseas Metal Prices - **Domestic - to - Overseas Ratio**: The domestic - to - overseas ratios of zinc and lead are at relatively high historical levels. This week, the domestic - to - overseas ratios of major metals showed mixed changes. The ratios for copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin were 1.13, 1.14, 1.16, 1.18, 1.11, and 1.12 respectively [77] - **Import Profit/Loss**: This week, the import profit of lead was 321, while the import profits of other major metals were negative. Factors to consider for domestic - overseas arbitrage include the Fed's interest - rate cut policy, domestic and overseas inventory comparisons, and expectations of domestic growth - stabilizing policies [77] 5. Changes in Non - ferrous Metals Cross - variety Ratios - The report provides the current values, values three months ago, and values one year ago of cross - variety ratios and differences among copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin, along with their respective quantiles [94]

Report Information - Report Title: Non-ferrous Metal Arbitrage Weekly Report 20250512 [2] - Researchers: Zhang Jiefu, Wang Yanhong [2] - Investment Consulting Numbers: Z0016959, Z0010675 [2] - Email: wangyh@zxqh.net, zhangjf@zxqh.net [2] - Tel: 027 - 68851554 [2] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - For zinc's inter - period arbitrage, due to the easing of tariff disputes in atmosphere, smelters turning profitable, continuous rapid increase in TC, and the cyclical shift of zinc ore supply from tight to loose with new domestic and foreign zinc mines coming into production, it is recommended to participate in the inter - period positive arbitrage of zinc by rolling at low prices [4]. - For the cross - variety arbitrage of aluminum and zinc, as zinc mine projects are expected to gradually release incremental output and the fundamentals of aluminum are stronger than zinc, it is recommended to participate in the strategy of going long on aluminum and short on zinc by rolling at low prices [4]. Summary by Directory Part I: Weekly Price Performance Review and Capital Flow - **Weekly Price Review**: LME copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin prices increased week - on - week with increases of 3.51%, 0.75%, 2.35%, 1.23%, 2.50%, and 1.71% respectively; SHFE copper, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin prices changed by 0.30%, - 1.11%, - 0.21%, - 0.22%, and - 0.29% respectively, while SHFE aluminum price decreased by 1.63% [8]. - **Capital Flow**: Most non - ferrous metals' single - sided open interest is at a relatively low level in recent years, with aluminum's single - sided open interest increasing significantly recently. This week, the single - sided open interest of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin increased by 6.5%, 11.4%, 13.7%, 7.2%, 5.2%, and 4.5% respectively. Except for lead and nickel, major non - ferrous metals had net capital outflows [10]. Part II: Non - ferrous Metal Inventory and Profit Situation - **Inventory Situation**: LME copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin inventories decreased week - on - week with decreases of 4.18%, 2.89%, 2.82%, 4.58%, 1.81%, and 1.81% respectively [26]. - **Profit Situation**: This week, the processing fee of copper decreased slightly, and smelters' loss widened to 2921 yuan/ton; the theoretical smelting cost of aluminum was 17818 yuan/ton, and the smelting profit dropped to 1731 yuan/ton; the domestic processing fee of zinc increased by 50 yuan/ton compared with last week, and the theoretical smelting profit of domestic zinc ore was - 243 yuan/ton [43]. Part III: Non - ferrous Metal Basis and Term Structure - **Basis Situation**: As of May 9, 2025, the copper basis was 930 with a basis premium rate of 1.20%; the aluminum basis was - 35 with a basis premium rate of - 0.18%; the zinc basis was 550 with a basis premium rate of 2.48%; the lead basis was 5 with a basis premium rate of 0.03%; the nickel basis was 1160 with a basis premium rate of 0.94%; the tin basis was - 340 with a basis premium rate of - 0.13% [46]. - **Term Structure**: This week, nickel was in a Contango structure, while copper and zinc were in a Back structure. The spread between the first - line contract and the near - month contract of copper was - 510, a decrease of 280 compared with last week; that of aluminum was - 70, an increase of 5; that of zinc was - 385, a decrease of 145; that of lead was - 20, a decrease of 30; that of nickel was 210, remaining unchanged; that of tin was 240, an increase of 70 [62]. Part IV: Comparison of Domestic and Overseas Metal Prices - **Domestic - to - Overseas Ratio**: Zinc and lead's Shanghai - to - LME ratios are at relatively high historical levels. This week, the Shanghai - to - LME ratios of major metals showed mixed trends, with the ratios of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin being 1.13, 1.12, 1.15, 1.17, 1.08, and 1.12 respectively [81]. - **Import Profit and Loss**: This week, the import profit and loss of copper, zinc, and lead were 548, 93, and 269 respectively, while those of other major metals were negative. Cross - market arbitrage can focus on factors such as the Fed's interest - rate cut policy, the comparison of domestic and overseas inventories, and the expectation of domestic growth - stabilizing policies [81]. Part V: Changes in Cross - variety Ratios of Non - ferrous Metals - As of May 9, 2025, the copper - aluminum ratio was 3.95 with a ratio quantile of 96.8%; the copper - zinc ratio was 3.49 with a ratio quantile of 98.9%; the copper - lead ratio was 4.61 with a ratio quantile of 84.3%; the copper - nickel ratio was 1.59 with a ratio quantile of 0.3%; the copper - tin ratio was 3.35 with a ratio quantile of 68.8%; the zinc - aluminum ratio was 1.13 with a ratio quantile of 25.7%; the aluminum - lead ratio was 1.17 with a ratio quantile of 36.2%; the aluminum - nickel ratio was 6.30 with a ratio quantile of 10.1%; the aluminum - tin ratio was 13.25 with a ratio quantile of 83.6%; the zinc - lead ratio was 1.32 with a ratio quantile of 31.3%; the zinc - nickel ratio was 5.56 with a ratio quantile of 14.5%; the zinc - tin ratio was 11.70 with a ratio quantile of 87.8%; the lead - nickel ratio was 7.35 with a ratio quantile of 9.5%; the lead - tin ratio was 15.44 with a ratio quantile of 72.8%; the nickel - tin ratio was 2.10 with a ratio quantile of 97.1% [98].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View The report presents the cross - market, cross - period, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking data of non - ferrous metals (copper, zinc, aluminum, nickel, lead, tin) on May 6, 2025, including domestic and LME prices, price ratios, spreads, equilibrium price ratios, and theoretical spreads [1][3][4]. 3) Summary by Category Cross - Market Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: On May 6, 2025, the domestic spot price was 77,930 with an LME price of 9,333 and a ratio of 8.32; the three - month domestic price was 76,830 with an LME price of 9,340 and a ratio of 8.30. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.32, with a loss of 118.83. The loss for spot export was 513.50 [1]. - **Zinc**: The domestic spot price was 22,910 with an LME price of 2,603 and a ratio of 8.80; the three - month domestic price was 22,195 with an LME price of 2,639 and a ratio of 6.38. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.80, with a loss of 4.26 [1]. - **Aluminum**: The domestic spot price was 20,070 with an LME price of 2,423 and a ratio of 8.28; the three - month domestic price was 19,840 with an LME price of 2,451 and a ratio of 8.15. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.83, with a loss of 1,352.12 [1]. - **Nickel**: The domestic spot price was 125,200 with an LME price of 15,376 and a ratio of 8.14. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.36, with a loss of 4,414.56 [1]. - **Lead**: The domestic spot price was 16,775 with an LME price of 1,961 and a ratio of 8.52; the three - month domestic price was 16,870 with an LME price of 1,972 and a ratio of 11.41. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 9.01, with a loss of 971.10 [3]. Cross - Period Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: On May 6, 2025, the spreads for the next - month, three - month, four - month, and five - month relative to the spot month were - 230, - 620, - 950, and - 1210 respectively, while the theoretical spreads were 489, 877, 1273, and 1669 [4]. - **Zinc**: The spreads were - 225, - 470, - 600, and - 675; the theoretical spreads were 216, 339, 461, and 583 [4]. - **Aluminum**: The spreads were - 65, - 135, - 145, and - 210; the theoretical spreads were 211, 323, 435, and 547 [4]. - **Lead**: The spreads were 40, 70, 70, and 50; the theoretical spreads were 209, 314, 419, and 524 [4]. - **Nickel**: The spreads were 20, 180, 420, and 580 [4]. - **Tin**: The spread for 5 - 1 was - 490, and the theoretical spread was 5390 [4]. Cross - Variety Arbitrage Tracking - The price ratios of copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, and lead/zinc in Shanghai (three - continuous) were 3.46, 3.87, 4.55, 0.89, 1.18, and 0.76 respectively; in London (three - continuous) were 3.52, 3.80, 4.66, 0.93, 1.23, and 0.76 [5]. Spot - Futures Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads of the current - month and next - month contracts relative to the spot were - 485 and - 715, while the theoretical spreads were 212 and 610 [4]. - **Zinc**: The spreads were - 245 and - 470; the theoretical spreads were 64 and 197 [4]. - **Lead**: The spreads were 25 and 65; the theoretical spreads were 132 and 244 [5].

Report Information - Report Title: Zhengxin Futures Non-ferrous Metals Arbitrage Weekly Report 20250428 [2] - Researchers: Zhang Jiefu, Wang Yanhong [2] - Investment Advisory Numbers: Z0016959, Z0010675 [2] - Email: zhangjf@zxqh.net, wangyh@zxqh.net [2] - Tel: 027 - 68851554 [2] Investment Ratings - No investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - **Zinc Inter - period Arbitrage**: With the continuous and rapid increase in TC, smelters have turned profitable. Affected by the production cycle of zinc mines at home and abroad, zinc ore supply will cyclically shift from tight to loose. If there are no major highlights in demand throughout the year, the supply - demand balance tends to move towards surplus. It is recommended to participate in zinc inter - period positive arbitrage on a dip - rolling basis [4]. - **Aluminum - Zinc Cross - variety Arbitrage**: The output of refined zinc in China has marginally recovered, and the newly commissioned zinc mine projects globally are expected to gradually release incremental production throughout the year. Due to capacity restrictions in China, the fundamentals of aluminum are stronger than those of zinc. It is recommended to participate in the strategy of going long on aluminum and short on zinc on a dip - rolling basis [4]. Summary by Directory Part I: Weekly Price Performance Review and Fund Flow - **Weekly Price Review**: LME copper increased by 1.87% from $9,188.5 to $9,360; LME aluminum rose by 3.04% from $2,365.5 to $2,437.5; LME zinc climbed by 2.66% from $2,577 to $2,645.5; LME lead advanced by 1.20% from $1,922 to $1,945; LME nickel decreased by 0.84% from $15,622 to $15,490; LME tin went up by 4.35% from $30,643 to $31,975. SHFE copper increased by 2.19% from 75,780 to 77,440; SHFE aluminum rose by 1.96% from 19,645 to 20,030; SHFE zinc climbed by 3.46% from 21,990 to 22,750; SHFE lead advanced by 1.16% from 16,750 to 16,945; SHFE nickel decreased by 0.18% from 126,030 to 125,800; SHFE tin went up by 1.97% from 257,770 to 262,840 [8]. - **Fund Flow**: The unilateral open interest of most non - ferrous metals is at a relatively low level in recent years, with a significant increase in aluminum's unilateral open interest recently. This week, copper's unilateral open interest increased by 1.4% month - on - month, while those of aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin decreased by 3.9%, 8.2%, 4.6%, and 7.8% respectively. Except for aluminum, the main non - ferrous metals experienced net capital outflows this week [10]. Part II: Non - ferrous Metals Inventory and Profit - **Inventory**: LME copper inventory decreased by 4.66% to 203,450; LME aluminum inventory dropped by 2.90% to 421,575; LME zinc inventory declined by 7.83% to 180,050; LME lead inventory decreased by 2.68% to 274,075; LME nickel inventory fell by 1.01% to 202,470; LME tin inventory decreased by 1.40% to 2,810 [22]. - **Profit**: Copper smelters' losses widened to 2,651 yuan/ton as processing fees decreased slightly week - on - week. Aluminum's theoretical smelting cost was 18,069 yuan/ton, and the smelting profit rose to 2,031 yuan/ton. Zinc's domestic processing fee remained flat, and the theoretical smelting profit from domestic ore was 936 yuan/ton [40]. Part III: Non - ferrous Metals Basis and Term Structure - **Basis**: The copper basis was 840, with a basis premium rate of 1.08%, a one - year basis quantile of 96.28%, and a three - year basis quantile of 85.54%. The aluminum basis was 70, with a basis premium rate of 0.35%, a one - year basis quantile of 87.19%, and a three - year basis quantile of 70.04%. The zinc basis was 490, with a basis premium rate of 2.15%, a one - year basis quantile of 85.54%, and a three - year basis quantile of 85.26%. The lead basis was 175, with a basis premium rate of 1.03%, a one - year basis quantile of 81.40%, and a three - year basis quantile of 90.98%. The nickel basis was 910, with a basis premium rate of 0.72%, a one - year basis quantile of 54.75%, and a three - year basis quantile of 24.72%. The tin basis was 340, with a basis premium rate of 0.13%, a one - year basis quantile of 55.17%, and a three - year basis quantile of 49.17% [43]. - **Term Structure**: This week, nickel was in a Contango structure, while copper and zinc were in a Back structure. Copper's spread between the first - line contract and the near - month contract was - 210, a decrease of 130 from last week. Aluminum's spread was - 60, an increase of 30 from last week. Zinc's spread was - 220, an increase of 30 from last week. Lead's spread was - 5, an increase of 35 from last week. Nickel's spread was 160, an increase of 20 from last week. Tin's spread was 70, an increase of 90 from last week [58]. Part IV: Comparison of Domestic and Overseas Metal Prices - **Domestic - to - Overseas Ratio**: The domestic - to - overseas ratios of zinc and lead are at relatively high historical levels. This week, the domestic - to - overseas ratios of major metals showed mixed trends. The domestic - to - overseas ratios of base metals were 1.13 for copper, 1.14 for aluminum, 1.17 for zinc, 1.19 for lead, 1.11 for nickel, and 1.15 for tin. The import profits and losses of copper, zinc, lead, and nickel were 591, 142, 706, and 447 respectively this week, while those of other major metals were negative [75]. - **Arbitrage Considerations**: Cross - market arbitrage can take into account factors such as the Fed's interest - rate cut policy, the comparison of domestic and overseas inventories, and the expectation of domestic growth - stabilization policies [75]. Part V: Changes in Cross - variety Ratios of Non - ferrous Metals - **Ratio and Spread Data**: The report provides detailed ratio and spread data for various cross - variety combinations (e.g., copper - aluminum, copper - zinc) at the current time, three months ago, and one year ago, along with their respective quantiles [92].