我们不妨做一个简单的推算：如果奖金池中的一半人去世，幸存者拿到的名义票息率就会翻倍，从7%上升到14%。如果只剩四分之一人，则升到 28%； 若只剩十分之一，年息理论上会达到 70%。你越长寿，越到后面，回报就越像火箭一样往上飙。 问题在于，能活过别人的概率有多高呢？按照1693年的寿命表显示，一个30岁的人平均能再活30年，到60岁左右去世。但那只是"平均值"，并非一半人 能活到60岁。事实上，到60岁 时，大约有三分之一的人仍在世，而三分之二的人已不在人间。 1693 年的伦敦，街头空气里混着煤烟、马粪味，还有战争的焦灼气息。当时的英国正与法国打得不可开交，国王威廉三世为了筹措战争经费，可谓绞尽 脑汁。为了应对日益恶化的财政赤字，英国议会一边加税，一边费尽心思想出各种奇奇怪怪的融资办法。 就在这样的背景下，一个新奇的金融发明登上舞台： 唐蒂（ tontine）。它的名字来自一个意大利银行家洛伦佐·唐蒂（Lorenzo Tonti），他发明了一种 听起来像是"投资+游戏+寿命赌局"的产品。听上去有点复杂，但其实逻辑很简单：参与者每人出一笔钱组成资金池，政府承诺每年支付利息。起初大家都 分红，但每当一个参与者 ...

Core Insights - The upcoming IPO of Changxin Technology is reminiscent of the 2019 Sci-Tech Innovation Board launch, where initial excitement led to significant losses for retail investors shortly after [1][3] - Changxin Technology's prospectus highlights the advancements in China's semiconductor industry, showcasing a rise in market share from 6% to 8% and technological progress from DDR4 to HBM3 [1][11] - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding institutional trading behaviors rather than relying solely on intuition, as many retail investors have historically lost money during semiconductor market booms [3][10] Industry Trends - The semiconductor market has shown a troubling trend where only 23% of individual investors achieved positive returns during the 2019-2021 semiconductor bull market, with 82% of those profits eventually returned to the market [3][10] - The article suggests that retail investors often make decisions based on emotions, leading to poor outcomes during market fluctuations [10][12] - The storage chip market is projected to be worth 460 billion, indicating significant investment opportunities for those who can interpret market data effectively [12] Investment Strategies - Successful investment opportunities arise when industry trends align with quantitative data, particularly when a company is at a critical point in the supply chain, achieves key technical breakthroughs, and shows signs of institutional inflow [11] - Investors are advised to avoid blindly chasing high prices and to focus on the right entry points, as well as to pay attention to opportunities within the industry chain that may be influenced by leading companies going public [11] - Emphasis is placed on the importance of analyzing trading behavior data, which can provide clearer insights than traditional technical indicators [11]

在制定战略时，CEO和高管总是"一言堂"，一线人员反馈的结果也听不进去，嘴上说大方向让大家一起 想一想，实际则是自己说了算，咨询公司的人也只能在一旁陪笑，其他部门的人也不敢说什么，都怕得 罪CEO。 企业内部在制定战略时，你可能遇到过这种情况： 其实，这些问题涉及到的方面特别广，在这个"战略咨询"全网飞的时代，几乎很少人会提及，因为这其 中包括了：心理学、组织心理学、决策学、社会心理学、行为经济学等学科，非常广泛，并不是某一个 学科能解决的。这是由CEO的心理与团队成员的心理、企业发展利益者共同组成的复杂综合体，想要解 决这其中的矛盾，就必须了解所涉及的所有学科，才有可能改变CEO、组织的思想。 我自己也希望研究一些冷门赛道，找出我的"细分领域"，最关键是要对企业发展有益的方向。 比如，我感兴趣的问题是：高管如何制定战略决策？我如何能更好地训练有志于成为战略家的人员熟练 掌握这一"技术"？相对于"战略"，我还是更喜欢研究"人"；这两者密不可分，所以我选择了研究"战略 决策中的人"。 昨天，在研究战略时，发现一位战略管理学教授正在努力证明好的战略背后的方法；这个研究关于组织 认知、记忆和专业知识的研究，旨在启发 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the evolution of science and its relationship with human existence, highlighting a crisis in scientific understanding and its implications for society [3][4][18] - It emphasizes the need for a new scientific worldview that reconnects science with direct human experience, moving away from the traditional dichotomy of subjectivity and objectivity [21][27][28] - The authors argue that the current scientific crisis stems from a "blind spot" in scientific philosophy, which prioritizes abstract mathematical concepts over direct human experience [9][10][15] Group 2 - The article outlines the significance of social sciences in understanding reality as constructed through shared human experiences, emphasizing the concept of intersubjectivity [22][24] - It critiques the tendency in both natural and social sciences to abstract and separate research from direct human experience, which can lead to a misunderstanding of social realities [24][29] - The authors propose that integrating direct experience into scientific inquiry can lead to a more nuanced understanding of social constructs and the mechanisms behind them [27][28][30]