行业资讯 国泰君安期货·能源化工 天然橡胶周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·高琳琳 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002332 日期：2026年1月11日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint CONTENTS 行业资讯 01 行情走势 02 基本面数据 03 本周观点总结 04 行业资讯 期货价格 基差与月差 其他价差 替代品价格 资金动向 供给 需求 库存 本周观点总结 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 1 行业资讯 1.【边境冲突与洪涝灾害造成泰国橡胶减产逾4.4万吨】据泰媒1月8日报道，泰国农业部常务秘书透露，泰柬边境的武装冲突以及泰国南部的洪涝灾害，致 使橡胶种植园损失超29.95亿泰铢，橡胶减产逾4.4万吨。该国农业与合作社部常务秘书Winairoj Sapsongsook表示，泰柬边境的战事已直接影响沿线农业 区，多个府的橡胶园至今仍无法开展割胶作业。目前，相关部门正在开展灾情评估并实施紧急援助。与此同时，针对受洪涝灾害影响的胶农，政府也将加 快推进救助与赈灾工作。此次 ...

期货研究报告 晨会纪要 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 宝城期货橡胶早报-2026-01-08 品种晨会纪要 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 沪胶（RU） 日内观点：偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏强运行 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪胶 | 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 多空分歧出现，沪胶震荡偏强 | | 合成胶 | 2602 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 偏多氛围支撑，合成胶震荡偏强 | 核心逻辑：随着泰国和柬埔寨两国宣布停战，地缘风险因素弱化，东南亚橡胶供应回落预期消 ...

Group 1 - The domestic chemical sector in China's futures market is experiencing a significant decline, with synthetic rubber futures prices dropping over 2% and natural rubber and No. 20 rubber futures main contracts falling more than 1% [1] - In the Thai spot rubber market, the prices of smoked sheets are primarily decreasing, with RSS3 grade rubber FOB prices dropping by 1 Thai Baht per kilogram for December 2025 and January 2026, and STR20 decreasing by 0.01 Thai Baht per kilogram [2] - The Indian Ministry of Commerce has initiated an anti-dumping investigation into butyl rubber imported from China, Singapore, and the United States, following a request from Reliance Sibur Elastomers Private Limited [2] Group 2 - Current market dynamics indicate that while the operating rate of downstream tire production has increased, the demand boost is limited and unable to offset ongoing supply pressures, leading to a downward shift in the market [3] - Analysts suggest that the focus should be on the accumulation process and overseas raw materials, noting that overseas raw materials are currently stronger than domestic futures [3] - The southern region of Thailand has not yet entered the peak production season, which supports bearish market logic, and analysts recommend a wait-and-see approach [3]

Group 1 - The main contract for 20 rubber futures experienced a rapid increase, reaching a peak of 13,280.00 yuan, with a current price of 13,270.00 yuan, reflecting a rise of 3.51% [1] - Various institutions have differing views on the future price trends of rubber, with expectations of price adjustments and potential declines in the short term [1][2] Group 2 - Shenyin Wanguo Futures predicts that the short-term rubber price will experience fluctuations due to ongoing rainfall affecting rubber tapping and a weak demand side during the off-peak consumption season [1] - Ningzheng Futures anticipates a possible price correction in the short term, citing difficulties in reducing finished product inventories and weak consumption related to exports [1][2] - China’s tire production statistics show a mixed performance, with full steel tire operating rates increasing significantly while semi-steel tire rates have slightly decreased, indicating a complex demand landscape [2] - The export of rubber tires from China has seen a decline, with a 6.9% drop in June, raising concerns about future trade risks, particularly with major markets like the EU and the US [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rubber market has a narrow decline and remains in a volatile range. The cooling of macro - sentiment and the off - season of demand lead to a narrow market decline. The supply is expected to increase seasonally, and the overall demand pressure has increased significantly compared with the previous two years. The market is expected to remain volatile [76]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry News - China's tire exports from January to May 2025 showed growth, with the export volume of rubber tires reaching 3.89 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.3%, and the export value reaching 69.1 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 7.7%. However, in May, the output of rubber tire casings decreased by 1.2% year - on - year [5]. - Thailand's Linchaban Port is overloaded, and the transportation cost has increased by about 20 billion Thai baht (about 600 million US dollars). The export growth in the first four months of this year was 14%, but the port congestion has become severe [6]. - Thailand's automotive market is facing major challenges. In 2024, the sales volume of light vehicles decreased by 26% year - on - year, and in the first quarter of 2025, it decreased by 7% year - on - year [7]. 3.2 Market Trends - This week, the domestic rubber market had a slight increase, while the overseas market was divided. Singapore rubber rose, and Japanese rubber fell. The closing prices of RU2509, NR2509, Singapore TSR20:2509, and Tokyo RSS3:2509 on June 20, 2025, were 13,900 yuan/ton, 11,985 yuan/ton, 161.40 cents/kg, and 299.90 yen/kg respectively, with weekly increases of 0.18%, 0.25%, 0.44%, and - 0.03% [10][11]. 3.3 Price Differences - **Basis and Calendar Spread**: The full - cream - RU basis was 0 yuan/ton on June 20, 2025, with a 100% increase compared to the previous period and a 100% increase year - on - year. The 09 - 01 month spread was - 835 yuan/ton, with no change compared to the previous period and a 29.24% increase year - on - year [12]. - **Other Spreads**: RU - NR, RU - BR, and NR - SGX TSR20 spreads narrowed, while the NR - JPX RSS3 spread increased. For example, the RU09 - NR09 spread on June 20, 2025, was 1,915 yuan/ton, with a - 0.26% change compared to the previous period and a - 15.82% change year - on - year [20][21]. - **Substitute Prices**: Due to the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East, the price of butadiene rubber increased, and the synthetic - RU spread converged. On June 20, 2025, the domestic mainstream market price of butadiene rubber was 11,800 yuan/ton, with a 1.72% increase compared to the previous period and a - 23.13% change year - on - year [32]. 3.4 Capital Movements - The RU virtual - to - physical ratio was at a low level, and the settled capital was at a low level year - on - year. The NR virtual - to - physical ratio declined from a high level, and the settled capital declined to a low level. On June 20, 2025, the RU and NR virtual - to - physical ratios were 8.06 and 5.35 respectively, with - 6.07% and - 35.52% changes compared to the previous period, and - 18.67% and 21.72% changes year - on - year [34][35]. 3.5 Fundamental Data - **Supply** - **Weather**: This week, the temperature in northeastern Thailand was slightly lower, and the rainfall was relatively high year - on - year. The weather in southern Thailand was relatively normal. Yunnan and Hainan are in the rainy season, and the rainfall in Yunnan is relatively high year - on - year [39][40]. - **Raw Material Prices**: Frequent rainfall in major domestic and foreign production areas has hindered rubber tapping. Rubber factories'抢购 of raw materials has pushed up prices. On June 20, 2025, the price of Thai cup rubber was 48.05 Thai baht/kg, with a 2.13% increase compared to the previous period and a - 19.51% change year - on - year [43][44]. - **Raw Material Price Differences**: The Thailand water - cup price difference was stable, and the difference between Hainan glue entering the concentrated latex factory and entering the whole - milk factory increased. On June 20, 2025, the Thailand water - cup price difference was 9.70 Thai baht/kg, with no change compared to the previous period and a - 28.94% change year - on - year [51][52]. - **Upstream Processing Profits**: The production profits of Thai standard rubber and Hainan concentrated latex decreased, while the profits of Thai smoked sheets and Thai concentrated latex increased. On June 20, 2025, the production profit of Thai standard rubber was - 496 yuan/ton, with a - 30.87% change compared to the previous period and a 60.63% change year - on - year [54][55]. - **Rubber Imports**: In May 2025, China's natural rubber (including mixed and composite) imports decreased by 13.35% month - on - month and increased by 30.40% year - on - year. The imports of Thai standard rubber and Cote d'Ivoire standard rubber were at a high level [58][59]. - **Demand** - **Tire Capacity Utilization and Inventory**: The capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire enterprises fluctuated. The overall capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire enterprises increased. The inventories of all - steel and semi - steel tires increased this week. On June 20, 2025, the capacity utilization rates of all - steel and semi - steel tires were 61.39% and 71.54% respectively, with 4.58% and 2.23% increases compared to the previous week, and - 0.73% and - 10.64% changes year - on - year [62][63]. - **Tire Exports and Heavy - Truck Sales**: In May 2025, the exports of all - steel and semi - steel tires increased month - on - month and maintained good performance year - on - year. The sales volume of passenger cars increased both month - on - month and year - on - year in May, while the sales volume of heavy - trucks decreased month - on - month and increased slightly year - on - year in April [65][66]. - **Inventory**: China's natural rubber inventory increased slightly this period, with a decrease in light - colored rubber inventory and an increase in dark - colored rubber inventory. The inventory in Qingdao changed from a decrease to an increase. The NR futures inventory increased significantly, which had a greater impact on the dark - colored data. The spot market price continued to fluctuate within a range [68]. 3.6 Operation Suggestions - The rubber market has a narrow decline and remains in a volatile range. The cooling of macro - sentiment and the off - season of demand lead to a narrow market decline. The supply is expected to increase seasonally, and the overall demand pressure has increased significantly compared with the previous two years. The market is expected to remain volatile [76].