投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【天然橡胶周报（RU&NR)】 供应端进入减产期，宏观情绪驱动胶价上涨 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 国贸期货 能源化工研究中心 2026-02-02 叶海文 从业资格证号：F3071622 投资咨询证号：Z0014205 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 天然橡胶:供应端进入减产期，宏观情绪驱动胶价上涨 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 偏多 | （1）国内产区：目前国内产区停割，暂无原料分析。（2）泰国产区：泰北进入停割期，泰东北进入割胶尾声，预计二月初停割，泰南维持旺产期产出， 目前泰国产区整体进入季节性供应减量阶段，原料采购价格易涨难跌。（3）越南产区：本周越南产区天气晴好，整体已进入割胶尾声，南部产区预计持续 | | | | 割胶至春节前，当地加工厂进入 做囤货阶段，周内产区原料价格延续高位震荡。 | | 需求 | 中性 | （1）截至上周中国全钢轮胎样本企业产能利用率为62.47%，环比-0.06个百分点，同 ...

期货研究报告 晨会纪要 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 宝城期货橡胶早报-2026-01-20 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪胶 | 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 多空分歧出现，沪胶震荡偏弱 | | 合成胶 | 2603 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 多空分歧出现，合成胶震荡偏弱 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 沪胶（RU） 日内观点：偏弱 中期观点：震荡 日内观点：偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏弱运行 核心逻辑：随着泰国和柬埔寨两国宣布停战，地缘风险因 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Report's Core View - Both Shanghai rubber (RU) and synthetic rubber (BR) are expected to run weakly with an oscillatory pattern in the short - term and medium - term, and show a weak trend intraday on January 16, 2026 [1][5][7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Short - term, Medium - term, and Intraday Views**: Short - term and medium - term views are oscillatory, and the intraday view is weak, with a reference view of running weakly [1][5] - **Core Logic**: After Thailand and Cambodia declared a cease - fire, the expected decline in Southeast Asian rubber supply due to geopolitical risks disappeared, weakening the bullish drive. Domestic Yunnan and Hainan rubber - producing areas are in the off - season, reducing domestic supply pressure, while Southeast Asia is in the peak tapping season. The domestic automobile production and sales data are optimistic, and the December heavy - truck sales data are better than expected. With the weakening of the rally in the energy and chemical sector, Shanghai rubber futures maintained a weak oscillatory pattern on Thursday night and are expected to continue this way on Friday [5] Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Short - term, Medium - term, and Intraday Views**: Short - term and medium - term views are oscillatory, and the intraday view is weak, with a reference view of running weakly [1][7] - **Core Logic**: Due to the tight supply of northern goods and downstream replenishment demand, the spot price of butadiene has risen significantly. The rapid increase in raw material costs has squeezed the profits of synthetic rubber manufacturers, leading to some production cuts or shutdowns, reducing the supply expectation. The domestic automobile production and sales data are optimistic, and the December heavy - truck sales data are better than expected. Coupled with the oscillatory and strong pattern of crude oil futures, the cost support has been enhanced. With the weakening of the rally in the energy and chemical sector, synthetic rubber futures showed a high - level correction on Thursday night and are expected to maintain a weak oscillatory pattern on Friday [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week's view on natural rubber is oscillating weakly. Southeast Asia is in the high-yielding period of rubber tapping, with an increase in supply. However, the temperature in northeastern Thailand is dropping, and factories are replenishing their inventories periodically, so overseas raw material prices may remain high. It is estimated that rubber tapping in northeastern Thailand will gradually stop at the end of January, and about a month later in the south. In the short term, the accumulation rate of natural rubber spot inventory may slow down. With the correction in the commodity market, rubber prices are expected to continue to decline, but the downward adjustment is also expected to be limited [100][101]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industry News - Border conflicts and floods in Thailand have caused a rubber production reduction of over 44,000 tons and economic losses exceeding 2.995 billion Thai baht [5]. - From January to November 2025, Indonesia's total exports of natural rubber and mixed rubber increased by 4% year-on-year, and exports to China increased by 119% [6]. - From 2014 - 2024, Sri Lanka's rubber production and planting area decreased by an average annual of 7% and 6.3% respectively. If the trend continues, the rubber industry may decline [7]. Market Trends - This week, both domestic and foreign rubber futures rose, with RU leading the increase. On January 9, 2026, the closing prices of RU2605, NR2605, Singapore TSR20:2605, and Tokyo RSS3:2605 were 16,030 yuan/ton, 13,020 yuan/ton, 183.80 cents/kg, and 345.60 yen/kg respectively, with month-on-month increases of 2.72%, 2.32%, 2.17%, and 0.99% [10][12]. Basis and Spread - On January 9, 2026, the basis of whole milk - RU05 was -330 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month increase of 7.04% and a year-on-year increase of 56.58%; the 05 - 09 spread was 25 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month decrease of 58.33% and a year-on-year increase of 115.63% [16]. - RU - NR, NR - SGX TSR20, and RU - JPX RSS3 spreads increased, while RU - BR spread decreased [17]. - This week, the import rubber market offer rose. The whole milk - Thai mixed rubber spread and 3L - Thai mixed rubber spread expanded [23]. Substitute Prices - This week, the domestic butadiene rubber supply remained at a high level, and the market price increased significantly due to cost factors. The raw material cost continued to rise, compressing production profits, and major suppliers continuously raised prices [28]. Capital Movements - The virtual - to - physical ratio and settled funds of both RU and NR increased. On January 9, 2026, the virtual - to - physical ratios of RU and NR were 22.71 and 20.92 respectively, with month-on-month increases of 12.62% and 4.92%; the settled funds were 6.892 billion yuan and 2.852 billion yuan respectively, with month-on-month increases of 20.73% and 8.13% [31][34]. Fundamental Data Supply - In Thailand, the rainy season in the south is approaching the end with decreasing rainfall, while the rainy season in the northeast has passed, but the rainfall is higher than the same period [37]. - The rainy seasons in Hainan and Yunnan in China have basically ended [39]. - Domestic rubber - tapping is approaching the end, and overseas factory restocking demand supports rising raw material prices [41]. - The water - to - cup price spread in Thailand has decreased, and the spread of Hainan rubber latex into concentrated latex factories and whole - milk factories has remained stable [45]. - Thailand's rubber processing profits have generally recovered [48]. - Hainan's delivery profit has increased, and Yunnan has basically stopped tapping, so data updates have been suspended [51]. - In November 2025, Thailand's natural rubber exports decreased month - on - month; in December, Indonesia's total natural rubber exports increased slightly month - on - month; in November, Vietnam's natural rubber exports increased slightly month - on - month; in December, Cote d'Ivoire's rubber exports increased month - on - month [59][65][71][72]. - In November 2025, China's natural rubber imports (including mixed and composite rubber) were 6.436 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 25.98% and a year - on - year increase of 14.76% [76]. Demand - Some tire enterprises were in the "New Year's Day" holiday maintenance state this week, and production capacity utilization continued to decline. Full - steel tires were destocked, while semi - steel tires continued to accumulate inventory [82]. - In November 2025, heavy - truck sales increased month - on - month, and the growth rate accelerated; passenger car sales continued to grow, but the year - on - year and month - on - month growth rates continued to decline; tire exports recovered slightly month - on - month [83]. - In November 2025, the highway freight turnover increased month - on - month, while the passenger turnover decreased month - on - month [87]. Inventory - China's natural rubber inventory continued to accumulate, with a higher accumulation rate than the previous period. The inventory in Qingdao Port increased significantly, with a 6.6% increase in inbound volume and a 31% decrease in outbound volume [94]. - On January 9, 2026, the natural rubber futures inventory at the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 1.045 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.88%; the 20 - rubber futures inventory at the Shanghai International Energy Exchange was 0.57 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.74% [97]. This Week's Viewpoint Summary - Supply: As of Friday, the raw material glue price in Thailand was 56 Thai baht/kg, and the cup - lump price was 52.2 Thai baht/kg. As of January 4, 2026, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.232 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 31,000 tons or 2.5% [101]. - Demand: Most enterprises that had maintenance during the "New Year's Day" holiday have restored production to normal levels, and some enterprises are still in the recovery stage. The overall shipment of enterprises is poor, and inventory reduction is slow [101]. - Viewpoint: Although there is an increase in supply during the high - yielding period of rubber tapping in Southeast Asia, the raw material prices overseas may remain high. The inventory accumulation rate of natural rubber spot may slow down in the short term, and rubber prices may continue to decline, but the downward space is limited [101]. - Valuation: On Friday, the spread between the main contracts of RU and NR was 3,080 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 25 yuan/ton; the spread between mixed standard rubber and the main contract of RU was - 980 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 60 yuan/ton [101]. - Strategy: 1) Unilateral: Wait for opportunities to go long on dips. 2) Inter - delivery: Observe. 3) Inter - commodity: Go long on RU and short on NR [101].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - Both Shanghai rubber and synthetic rubber are expected to run with a strong bias in the short - term and mid - term, with a strong bias on the day of trading [1][5][7] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Price Trend**: Short - term: oscillating; Mid - term: oscillating; Intraday: strong bias; Overall reference view: run with a strong bias [1][5] - **Core Logic**: With the end of the war between Thailand and Cambodia, the geopolitical risk weakens, and the expectation of reduced rubber supply in Southeast Asia dissipates. However, domestic natural rubber production areas in Yunnan and Hainan have entered the off - season, reducing the supply pressure of domestic full - latex. Southeast Asia is still in the peak tapping season. The domestic automobile production and sales data are optimistic, and the heavy - truck sales data in December are better than expected. Supported by a bullish atmosphere, Shanghai rubber futures oscillated at a high level on Wednesday night and are expected to maintain an oscillating and strong - biased trend on Thursday [5] Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Price Trend**: Short - term: oscillating; Mid - term: oscillating; Intraday: strong bias; Overall reference view: run with a strong bias [1][7] - **Core Logic**: Affected by the tight circulation of northern supplies and downstream replenishment demand, the spot price of butadiene has risen sharply. The rapid increase in raw material costs has squeezed the profits of synthetic rubber manufacturers, leading to some plants reducing production or shutting down, and the supply is expected to decline. The domestic automobile production and sales data are optimistic, and the heavy - truck sales data in December are better than expected. Coupled with the oscillating and strong - biased pattern of Shanghai rubber futures, it indirectly supports synthetic rubber futures. The supply - demand expectation of synthetic rubber has improved, and the bullish atmosphere has gradually dominated. Synthetic rubber futures rose sharply on Wednesday night and are expected to maintain an oscillating and strong - biased trend on Thursday [7]

Group 1 - The domestic chemical sector in China's futures market is experiencing a significant decline, with synthetic rubber futures prices dropping over 2% and natural rubber and No. 20 rubber futures main contracts falling more than 1% [1] - In the Thai spot rubber market, the prices of smoked sheets are primarily decreasing, with RSS3 grade rubber FOB prices dropping by 1 Thai Baht per kilogram for December 2025 and January 2026, and STR20 decreasing by 0.01 Thai Baht per kilogram [2] - The Indian Ministry of Commerce has initiated an anti-dumping investigation into butyl rubber imported from China, Singapore, and the United States, following a request from Reliance Sibur Elastomers Private Limited [2] Group 2 - Current market dynamics indicate that while the operating rate of downstream tire production has increased, the demand boost is limited and unable to offset ongoing supply pressures, leading to a downward shift in the market [3] - Analysts suggest that the focus should be on the accumulation process and overseas raw materials, noting that overseas raw materials are currently stronger than domestic futures [3] - The southern region of Thailand has not yet entered the peak production season, which supports bearish market logic, and analysts recommend a wait-and-see approach [3]

Group 1 - The main contract for 20 rubber futures experienced a rapid increase, reaching a peak of 13,280.00 yuan, with a current price of 13,270.00 yuan, reflecting a rise of 3.51% [1] - Various institutions have differing views on the future price trends of rubber, with expectations of price adjustments and potential declines in the short term [1][2] Group 2 - Shenyin Wanguo Futures predicts that the short-term rubber price will experience fluctuations due to ongoing rainfall affecting rubber tapping and a weak demand side during the off-peak consumption season [1] - Ningzheng Futures anticipates a possible price correction in the short term, citing difficulties in reducing finished product inventories and weak consumption related to exports [1][2] - China’s tire production statistics show a mixed performance, with full steel tire operating rates increasing significantly while semi-steel tire rates have slightly decreased, indicating a complex demand landscape [2] - The export of rubber tires from China has seen a decline, with a 6.9% drop in June, raising concerns about future trade risks, particularly with major markets like the EU and the US [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rubber market has a narrow decline and remains in a volatile range. The cooling of macro - sentiment and the off - season of demand lead to a narrow market decline. The supply is expected to increase seasonally, and the overall demand pressure has increased significantly compared with the previous two years. The market is expected to remain volatile [76]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry News - China's tire exports from January to May 2025 showed growth, with the export volume of rubber tires reaching 3.89 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.3%, and the export value reaching 69.1 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 7.7%. However, in May, the output of rubber tire casings decreased by 1.2% year - on - year [5]. - Thailand's Linchaban Port is overloaded, and the transportation cost has increased by about 20 billion Thai baht (about 600 million US dollars). The export growth in the first four months of this year was 14%, but the port congestion has become severe [6]. - Thailand's automotive market is facing major challenges. In 2024, the sales volume of light vehicles decreased by 26% year - on - year, and in the first quarter of 2025, it decreased by 7% year - on - year [7]. 3.2 Market Trends - This week, the domestic rubber market had a slight increase, while the overseas market was divided. Singapore rubber rose, and Japanese rubber fell. The closing prices of RU2509, NR2509, Singapore TSR20:2509, and Tokyo RSS3:2509 on June 20, 2025, were 13,900 yuan/ton, 11,985 yuan/ton, 161.40 cents/kg, and 299.90 yen/kg respectively, with weekly increases of 0.18%, 0.25%, 0.44%, and - 0.03% [10][11]. 3.3 Price Differences - **Basis and Calendar Spread**: The full - cream - RU basis was 0 yuan/ton on June 20, 2025, with a 100% increase compared to the previous period and a 100% increase year - on - year. The 09 - 01 month spread was - 835 yuan/ton, with no change compared to the previous period and a 29.24% increase year - on - year [12]. - **Other Spreads**: RU - NR, RU - BR, and NR - SGX TSR20 spreads narrowed, while the NR - JPX RSS3 spread increased. For example, the RU09 - NR09 spread on June 20, 2025, was 1,915 yuan/ton, with a - 0.26% change compared to the previous period and a - 15.82% change year - on - year [20][21]. - **Substitute Prices**: Due to the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East, the price of butadiene rubber increased, and the synthetic - RU spread converged. On June 20, 2025, the domestic mainstream market price of butadiene rubber was 11,800 yuan/ton, with a 1.72% increase compared to the previous period and a - 23.13% change year - on - year [32]. 3.4 Capital Movements - The RU virtual - to - physical ratio was at a low level, and the settled capital was at a low level year - on - year. The NR virtual - to - physical ratio declined from a high level, and the settled capital declined to a low level. On June 20, 2025, the RU and NR virtual - to - physical ratios were 8.06 and 5.35 respectively, with - 6.07% and - 35.52% changes compared to the previous period, and - 18.67% and 21.72% changes year - on - year [34][35]. 3.5 Fundamental Data - **Supply** - **Weather**: This week, the temperature in northeastern Thailand was slightly lower, and the rainfall was relatively high year - on - year. The weather in southern Thailand was relatively normal. Yunnan and Hainan are in the rainy season, and the rainfall in Yunnan is relatively high year - on - year [39][40]. - **Raw Material Prices**: Frequent rainfall in major domestic and foreign production areas has hindered rubber tapping. Rubber factories'抢购 of raw materials has pushed up prices. On June 20, 2025, the price of Thai cup rubber was 48.05 Thai baht/kg, with a 2.13% increase compared to the previous period and a - 19.51% change year - on - year [43][44]. - **Raw Material Price Differences**: The Thailand water - cup price difference was stable, and the difference between Hainan glue entering the concentrated latex factory and entering the whole - milk factory increased. On June 20, 2025, the Thailand water - cup price difference was 9.70 Thai baht/kg, with no change compared to the previous period and a - 28.94% change year - on - year [51][52]. - **Upstream Processing Profits**: The production profits of Thai standard rubber and Hainan concentrated latex decreased, while the profits of Thai smoked sheets and Thai concentrated latex increased. On June 20, 2025, the production profit of Thai standard rubber was - 496 yuan/ton, with a - 30.87% change compared to the previous period and a 60.63% change year - on - year [54][55]. - **Rubber Imports**: In May 2025, China's natural rubber (including mixed and composite) imports decreased by 13.35% month - on - month and increased by 30.40% year - on - year. The imports of Thai standard rubber and Cote d'Ivoire standard rubber were at a high level [58][59]. - **Demand** - **Tire Capacity Utilization and Inventory**: The capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire enterprises fluctuated. The overall capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire enterprises increased. The inventories of all - steel and semi - steel tires increased this week. On June 20, 2025, the capacity utilization rates of all - steel and semi - steel tires were 61.39% and 71.54% respectively, with 4.58% and 2.23% increases compared to the previous week, and - 0.73% and - 10.64% changes year - on - year [62][63]. - **Tire Exports and Heavy - Truck Sales**: In May 2025, the exports of all - steel and semi - steel tires increased month - on - month and maintained good performance year - on - year. The sales volume of passenger cars increased both month - on - month and year - on - year in May, while the sales volume of heavy - trucks decreased month - on - month and increased slightly year - on - year in April [65][66]. - **Inventory**: China's natural rubber inventory increased slightly this period, with a decrease in light - colored rubber inventory and an increase in dark - colored rubber inventory. The inventory in Qingdao changed from a decrease to an increase. The NR futures inventory increased significantly, which had a greater impact on the dark - colored data. The spot market price continued to fluctuate within a range [68]. 3.6 Operation Suggestions - The rubber market has a narrow decline and remains in a volatile range. The cooling of macro - sentiment and the off - season of demand lead to a narrow market decline. The supply is expected to increase seasonally, and the overall demand pressure has increased significantly compared with the previous two years. The market is expected to remain volatile [76].