消息人士称，欧佩克+联合部长级监督委员会（JMMC）不太可能在周一开会时改变现有的增产计划。 ...

Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report The CIT ruling on tariffs was just a short - term emotional disturbance. After the CAFC's decision, most commodities erased the previous day's rebound. Tariffs will likely continue as long as Trump is in power. The trading strategy should focus on the fundamental logic to find the strength and weakness of varieties. For the energy - chemical sector, crude oil, three types of rubber, and polyolefins have clear downward fundamental logic [3][4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Overall Market Situation - The CIT ruling on tariffs was a short - term emotional boost, but the CAFC's decision restored the tariffs, and most commodities erased the previous day's rebound. The trading should focus on the fundamentals [3][4]. Commodity Analysis Crude Oil - **Logic**: OPEC+ finalized the 2027 production benchmark, and the production increase plan will be discussed on Saturday. Kazakhstan can't reduce oil production. There's a high possibility of a new Iran nuclear deal [5]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level中期下跌结构 and hourly - level短期下跌 structure. The price hit a new low, and the short - term pressure is at 468. The hourly - cycle short position should be held, with a stop - profit reference of 468 [5]. Benzene Ethylene (EB) - **Logic**: Low inventory, but the supply is expected to increase due to the early resumption of maintenance devices. The cost support is weak, and the demand is hard to improve [8]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level短期下跌 structure. The price followed the decline of crude oil. The short - term pressure is at 7343. The hourly - cycle short position should be held, with a stop - profit reference of 7343 [8]. PX - **Logic**: The PX devices are in maintenance, and the downstream PTA's operation rate has increased. However, the cost logic may dominate the market after the decline of crude oil [12]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level短期震荡 structure. The price fell after reducing positions, and the previous upward breakthrough was false. The strategy is to wait and see [12]. PTA - **Logic**: The supply may increase, but there are concentrated maintenance plans in the second quarter. The demand is relatively strong, but the cost logic may dominate after the decline of crude oil [16]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level短期震荡 structure. The price fell after reducing positions, and the previous upward breakthrough was false. The strategy is to wait and see [16]. PP - **Logic**: The supply is stable, but there are new production capacity expectations in June. The domestic demand is in the off - season, and the export is hard to increase [20]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level短期下跌 structure. The price was volatile and ended lower. The short - term pressure is at 6980. The hourly - cycle short position should be held, with a stop - profit reference of 6980 [20]. Methanol - **Logic**: The domestic operation rate decreased slightly, but the overseas operation rate increased. There are high import expectations in June, and the demand is flat [25]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level下跌结构. The price was volatile and continued to decline. The short - term pressure is at 2255. The hourly - cycle short position should be held, with a stop - profit reference of 2255 [25]. Rubber - **Logic**: The demand is weak with high inventory of automobiles and tires. The EU launched an anti - dumping investigation on Chinese tires. The domestic inventory is accumulating, and the supply will increase in June [26]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level中期下跌 and hourly - level短期下跌 structure. The price hit a new low, and the short - term pressure is at 14000. Look for short - selling opportunities after the rebound fails [26]. PVC - **Logic**: The real - estate data in April was poor, and the terminal demand is hard to improve. The supply will increase after the resumption of device maintenance [29]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level中期下跌 and hourly - level短期下跌 structure. The price was volatile and continued to decline. The short - term pressure is at 4980. Look for short - selling opportunities after the reversal pattern [29]. Ethylene Glycol (EG) - **Logic**: The overall supply operation rate decreased slightly, and the arrival of goods increased. The polyester load remains high [33]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level中期下跌 and hourly - level短期下跌 structure. The price was volatile, and the short - term pressure is at 4405. The hourly - cycle short position should be held, with a stop - profit reference of 4405 [33]. Plastic - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level中期下跌 and hourly - level短期下跌 structure. The price hit a new low, and the short - term pressure is at 7120. The hourly - cycle short position should be held, with a stop - profit reference of 7120 [37]. Synthetic Rubber - **Logic**: The supply of butadiene will increase in June, which will put pressure on synthetic rubber from the cost side. The demand is weak [41]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level中期下跌 and hourly - level短期下跌 structure. The price hit a new low, and the short - term pressure is at 11580. The hourly - cycle short position should be held, with a stop - profit reference of 11580 [41].

Group 1 - The US dollar index fell, closing down 0.69% at 98.93, while US Treasury yields continued to decline, with the 10-year yield at 4.211%, a three-week low [1] - Spot gold reversed its earlier decline, rising 0.75% to close at $3344.08 per ounce, supported by buying interest after a drop of 1.8% [1] - The long-term outlook for gold remains positive due to ongoing central bank purchases, expectations of a shift in Federal Reserve policy, and geopolitical risks [1] Group 2 - WTI crude oil futures fell 2.03% to $61.89 per barrel, marking a near two-week low, amid uncertainties regarding OPEC+ production plans and concerns over the organization's unity [3] - Oil prices are expected to remain in a narrow trading range due to the lack of significant positive or negative news, with support confirmed around the $55 level and resistance near $65 [5] - The market sentiment indicates a preference for a cautious approach in trading, focusing on trend analysis and strategic entry points rather than emotional trading [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The short - term oil price is expected to fluctuate and build a bottom, with a medium - term bearish allocation [3] 2. Core Viewpoints - The OPEC+ will hold a production - limit meeting in May. After unexpectedly accelerating production by 411,000 barrels per day in April, Kazakhstan, which has been over - producing recently, has not promised to cut production. Saudi Arabia may further accelerate production in June to discipline Kazakhstan, which will bring further supply pressure to the market [2] - Uncertainty around the OPEC+ June production increase plan and growing concerns about the organization's unity pose significant downside risks to the oil market. The risk to OPEC+ unity is increasing [1] - The French bank predicts that Brent crude oil prices will reach a high of $60 per barrel in the second quarter, $70 per barrel in the third quarter, and average around $65 per barrel by the end of this year [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalog Market News and Important Data - The price of light crude oil futures for June delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 97 cents to $62.05 per barrel, a decrease of 1.54%. The price of Brent crude oil futures for June delivery fell $1.01 to $65.86 per barrel, a decrease of 1.51%. The main SC crude oil contract closed down 1.15% at 489 yuan per barrel [1] - Saudi Arabia may slightly raise the official selling price (OSP) of oil to Asian customers in June for the first time in three months, following the upward trend of benchmark oil prices this month. The official selling price of Arab light crude oil in June may be raised by 10 - 30 cents to $1.30 - $1.50 per barrel [1] - India increased its purchases of ESPO blend oil from Russia in April to the highest level since August 2024, with supplies increasing to about 400,000 tons (about 100,000 barrels per day) in April from 100,000 tons in March, and may receive another 200,000 tons in May [1] Investment Logic - The OPEC+ will hold a production - limit meeting in May. After Kazakhstan's over - production, Saudi Arabia may accelerate production in June, which will bring supply pressure to the market [2] Strategy - The short - term oil price is expected to fluctuate and build a bottom, with a medium - term bearish allocation [3] Risks - Downward risks include significant OPEC production increases and macro black - swan events; upward risks include tightened supply of sanctioned oil (Russia, Iran, Venezuela) and large - scale supply disruptions due to Middle East conflicts [4]