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“十五五”研究系列:“十五五”前瞻初探
Tianfeng Securities· 2025-08-26 02:43
Group 1 - The report outlines the core objectives of the "14th Five-Year Plan," emphasizing economic development, social progress, ecological improvement, and enhanced governance efficiency as key areas of focus [11][12][13] - The "15th Five-Year Plan" is positioned as a critical phase connecting the "14th Five-Year Plan" and the "16th Five-Year Plan," with significant implications for achieving the 2035 vision [3][5] - The report highlights the importance of innovation and technology in driving economic growth, with a focus on enhancing the capabilities of state-owned enterprises and fostering a modern industrial system [5][35] Group 2 - The report indicates that the economic growth rate averaged 5.5% over the past four years, with a projected GDP of approximately 140 trillion yuan for the current year [19][16] - It notes that the contribution of final consumption to economic growth has increased, reaching an average of 56.2% over the past four years, which is an improvement of 8.6 percentage points compared to the "13th Five-Year Plan" period [19] - The report emphasizes the need for a robust consumer spending mechanism to support economic recovery, highlighting the importance of increasing residents' disposable income [18] Group 3 - The report discusses the significant progress made in ecological transformation, with energy consumption per unit of GDP decreasing by 11.6% over the past four years, positioning China as one of the fastest countries in terms of energy intensity reduction [29][30] - It highlights the improvement in air quality, with the proportion of days with good air quality remaining stable at around 87%, which is a 3 percentage point increase compared to the "13th Five-Year Plan" period [30][32] - The report also mentions the increase in renewable energy generation capacity, which has surpassed coal power for the first time, reflecting a shift towards cleaner energy sources [30][29] Group 4 - The report outlines the advancements in high-tech industries, with the added value of high-tech manufacturing increasing by 42% compared to the end of the "13th Five-Year Plan" period [35] - It emphasizes the growth of the digital economy, with the core industries' added value rising by 73.8%, accounting for 10.4% of GDP [35] - The report indicates that the number of high-value invention patents per ten thousand people has reached 15.3, surpassing the target set for the "14th Five-Year Plan" [38]