炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 记者丨赵云帆 本周（12月22日—28日），全球油轮市场出现了罕见的一幕。 VLCC（超大型原油运输船）即期运价的核心指标——波罗的海TD3C期租等效指数周一暴跌20%至 87711美元/天。接近22000美元/天的跌幅也创下了自2020年5月"浮式储油崩盘"以来，最大单日跌幅。 10月20日，国泰君安证券分析师岳鑫、尹嘉骐在其《油运复苏已开启，需求意外在路上——油运行业深 度研究》报告中立意鲜明地表示，"需求意外"叠加"供给瓶颈"，给油运上市公司赋予了一个"超级牛市 期权"。 而之所以仅仅是"超级牛市期权"，原因或在于，仅就当下来看，油轮头部上市公司暂未充分计入运价超 级牛市。 以招商轮船为例。截至2025年上半年末，该公司自有VLCC船队规模维持世界第一，油轮船队包括52艘 VLCC（1611.07万载重吨）、7艘Aframax（77.00万载重吨），为最具代表性的油轮企业之一。 有意思的是，这次的运价暴跌，却显得云淡风轻。没有OPEC减产，没有浮式储油崩盘，没有巨大的地 缘政治事件影响——油运价格五年一遇的暴跌，依然未让VLCC运 ...

Core Viewpoint - The global tanker market experienced a significant drop in VLCC spot rates, with the Baltic TD3C index falling 20% to $87,711 per day, marking the largest single-day decline since May 2020. Despite this, major domestic oil tanker companies like China Merchants Energy Shipping Company (招商轮船) and COSCO Shipping Energy Transportation (中远海能) remained resilient, with China Merchants' stock rising over 4% in the week ending December 26, 2023 [1][3][8]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The oil tanker market is characterized by complex and sometimes contradictory pricing mechanisms, which have led to a mixed performance of A-share oil tanker companies despite strong demand [3]. - Analysts from Guotai Junan Securities highlighted a "super bull market option" for oil shipping companies due to unexpected demand and supply bottlenecks, suggesting that current valuations do not fully reflect the potential for a super bull market [7]. - As of mid-2025, China Merchants will maintain the world's largest VLCC fleet, comprising 52 VLCCs and 7 Aframax tankers, positioning it as a key player in the market [7]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Factors - The global fleet of sanctioned oil tankers has doubled to 906 vessels, representing 19% of the total oil tanker fleet, which has led to increased transportation distances and a temporary surge in tanker rates [10][11]. - The geopolitical landscape has restructured global oil transportation routes, contributing to rising tanker rates, while the U.S. shale oil production faces challenges that may support higher rates in the long term [11]. - Despite the recent surge in tanker rates, concerns remain about potential price corrections if geopolitical tensions ease or if floating storage capacities are released [12]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The supply of VLCCs is expected to remain tight until mid-2026, with only a limited number of new deliveries and a significant portion of the fleet being older vessels that may not meet environmental standards [13]. - The company anticipates that the compliance market will continue to experience supply-demand imbalances, with average rates expected to be higher than in 2025 [14]. - The company also noted that the first quarter of the year is typically a peak season for oil transportation, despite historical trends suggesting a decline in activity during the fourth quarter [15].

VLCC（超大型原油运输船）即期运价的核心指标——波罗的海TD3C期租等效指数周一暴跌20%至87711美元/天。接近22000美元/天的跌幅也 创下了自2020年5月"浮式储油崩盘"以来，最大单日跌幅。 五年前，突如其来的疫情导致全球炼化产能急剧萎缩。OPEC原油减产谈判暂以失败告终，美国Nymex原油期货近月合约出现了史上绝无仅有 的-37.63美元/桶"奇观"。巨大的期货升水一度导致VLCC被贸易商当成"浮式储油"的仓库，用于期现套利。油轮从"运力"变成了"仓库"，原油 有效运力骤降，运费也一度出现暴涨。 然而好景不长，2020年5月，OPEC减产协议达成，原油运输需求骤降，市场从极度乐观开始快速扭转，是以酿成当时运价"惨剧"。 有意思的是，与五年前"百年难遇"的奇观相比，这次的运价暴跌，却显得云淡风轻。没有OPEC减产，没有浮式储油崩盘，没有巨大的地缘政 治事件影响——油运价格五年一遇的暴跌，依然未让VLCC运价有效跌破2020年春季牛市出现的高点。 比起所谓的崩盘，运价更像是一次圣诞节前的市场休整。在国内资本市场上，国内大型原油油轮龙头企业招商轮船（601872.SH）、中远海能 （600026.S ...

本周，全球油轮市场出现了罕见的一幕。 VLCC(超大型原油运输船)即期运价的核心指标——波罗的海TD3C期租等效指数周一暴跌20%至87,711美元/天。接近22000美元/天的跌幅也创 下了自2020年5月"浮式储油崩盘"以来，最大单日跌幅。 10月20日，国泰君安证券分析师岳鑫、尹嘉骐在其《油运复苏已开启，需求意外在路上——油运行业深度研究》报告中立意鲜明地表示，"需 求意外"叠加"供给瓶颈"，给油运上市公司赋予了一个"超级牛市期权"。 而之所以仅仅是"超级牛市期权"，原因或在于，仅就当下来看，油轮头部上市公司暂未充分计入运价超级牛市。 以招商轮船为例。截至2025年上半年末，该公司自有VLCC船队规模维持世界第一，油轮船队包括52艘VLCC(1611.07万载重吨)、7艘 Aframax(77.00万载重吨)，为最具代表性的油轮企业之一。 根据航运研究机构克拉克森(Clarksons)数据，2025年第四季度VLCC即期市场的平均日收益有望达到自2008年以来的最高季度水平。在四季度 的高运价之下，部分油轮企业签订了中长协运输合同，明年一季度，甚至上半年的油轮企业业绩势必迎来强势反转。而由于过去一段时间 ...

油运：Q4 盈利将创十年新高，把握分歧与逆向时机 20251203 摘要 VLCC 运价屡创新高后虽有回落，仍维持在 12 万美元以上，远超盈亏平 衡线，显示油运市场旺季的运价弹性。四季度业绩预计将创十年新高， 全年业绩也将达到十年内新高水平。 上半年地缘政治和伊朗增产的负面影响减弱，原油定价回归供需，炼厂 开工率回升，推动油运需求。美国对伊朗制裁趋严及中国港口合规要求 提升，降低了影子船队的影响。 下半年中东和南美原油增产，叠加美国对俄罗斯制裁，驱动供需边际改 善，推升运价中枢。OPEC+增产及南美产量增长，特别是南美至亚洲航 距较长，进一步增加海运需求。 预计未来两年油运行业供需向好，有望迎来超级周期。OPEC+预计继续 增产，南美页岩油革命加速，美国对俄罗斯制裁持续，共同驱动全球原 油运输需求增长。 俄乌和谈对油运行业投资逻辑影响有限，可能驱动老船拆解潮，形成自 我对冲机制。在全球原油增产大周期背景下，未来两年供需仍将向好， 建议理性看待季节性淡季及俄乌和谈影响。 Q&A 近期油运市场的运价表现如何？ 从 8 月份开始，油运市场的运价中枢逐步上升，到 9 月份单月出现了显著的翻 倍以上的飙升。尽管 10 ...

Core Insights - The shipping industry is experiencing a cyclical shift, with container shipping reaching a peak while the oil shipping sector is showing signs of recovery after a prolonged downturn [1][7] - The VLCC (Very Large Crude Carrier) rates have recently surpassed the breakeven point, indicating a potential turnaround in the oil shipping market [1][7] - Geopolitical tensions are reshaping trade routes, which may lead to a more significant cyclical reversal in the oil shipping sector compared to container shipping [1][8] Industry Overview - The maritime industry supports 80% of global trade volume and 70% of trade value, with oil shipping being one of its three main pillars alongside dry bulk and container shipping [2] - Oil shipping is characterized by its complexity due to the strategic nature of oil as a commodity, which is influenced by geopolitical factors [2] - The oil shipping market is divided into crude oil and refined oil transportation, with crude oil routes heavily concentrated in strategic passages from the Middle East to Asia and Europe [2] Market Dynamics - The trend towards larger oil tankers, particularly VLCCs, is driven by the need to minimize unit transportation costs, with VLCCs dominating the crude oil transport market [4] - The market exhibits a dual structure, with a high concentration in crude oil transport but a fragmented market in refined oil transport, where no single company holds a significant market share [4][5] - The BDTI (Baltic Dirty Tanker Index) and BCTI (Baltic Clean Tanker Index) are key indicators of the oil shipping market, reflecting price movements and market conditions [6] Supply and Demand Analysis - The oil shipping sector is at a critical juncture, with supply constraints due to a near halt in new VLCC orders from 2021 to 2023, leading to limited capacity growth until 2026 [7] - Geopolitical events have historically triggered spikes in shipping rates, with current tensions in the Middle East pushing VLCC daily rates above $45,000 [7][8] - The demand for VLCCs is increasing as Asian buyers shift towards long-term contracts to mitigate geopolitical risks, raising the proportion of VLCCs in total capacity to 62% [8] Price Trends - The BDTI index has shown a 6.36% month-on-month increase to 987 points, but remains down 22.07% year-on-year, indicating ongoing market volatility [9] - VLCC daily rates have recently reached $39,890, reflecting a significant increase from previous levels, while the BCTI index has seen a year-on-year decline of 33.01% [9] - The market is experiencing structural differentiation, with VLCCs performing better than smaller tankers, suggesting a shift in demand towards larger vessels due to increased import needs in Asia [8][9]