涨跌 (%) 收盘 指数 1月 名称 (点) 1日 5日 -0.45 8.38 -0.26 上证指数 3828 | 风格指数 (%) | FEE | 近１个月 近６个月 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 大盘指数 | -0.57 | 11.37 | 16 | | 中盘指数 | -2.13 | 13.14 | 17.92 | | 小盘指数 | -2.48 | 9.84 | 16.95 | | 涨幅居前 行业(%) | 바람들 | 近１个月 近６个月 | | | 衣商行II | 2.54 | 0.41 | 14.95 | | 国有大型银行II | 2.11 | 2.82 | 13.82 | | 股份制银行II | 1.95 | -2.3 | 7.84 | | 白色家电 | 1.78 | 2.14 | 2.45 | | 饰品 | 1.66 | 6.96 | 34.32 | | 跌幅居前 行业(%) | MEE | 近１个月 近６个月 | | | 通信设备 | -6.71 | 46.84 | 94.07 | | 其他电源设备Ⅱ | -5.71 | 14.99 | 22.82 | | 元件 ...

Core Viewpoint - Over 90% of the more than 100 A-share listed companies that have disclosed their Q1 2025 performance forecasts are optimistic, with over 30 companies expecting a "doubling" of net profits [1][2]. Group 1: Company Performance - 59 companies expect an increase in Q1 performance, 28 anticipate slight growth, 11 are turning losses into profits, and 4 are maintaining profitability [2]. - More than 30 companies forecast a net profit increase of over 100% year-on-year, with nearly 30 companies expecting an increase of over 50% [2]. - GuoDa Special Materials anticipates a nearly 26% increase in revenue and a 1504.79% increase in net profit attributable to shareholders [2]. - China Shipbuilding Defense expects a net profit increase of up to 1200.91% due to improved production efficiency and investment income [3]. - Xianggang Technology predicts a net profit increase of up to 916.65% driven by market expansion and cost control [3]. Group 2: Industry Insights - The automotive, electronics, and basic chemical industries are among the top performers, with 14, 13, and 13 companies respectively [2]. - The overall performance of companies in Q1 reflects a high industry prosperity, with many achieving both volume and price growth [3]. - Analysts suggest that the current market environment indicates a stable and improving Chinese economy [3]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - Investment strategies should focus on sectors with potential for exceeding expectations in Q1 and annual reports, particularly in TMT-related industries like semiconductors and consumer electronics [4]. - Analysts recommend attention to growth industries that are supported by advanced technology and policy, such as lithium batteries and high-end manufacturing [5]. - Defensive sectors like non-ferrous metals, national defense, and environmental protection are expected to perform well in the short term, alongside consumer sectors with significant profit and price increases [5].

这也能够解释为何中小盘指数（1000、2000）的走势在上半年的规律性比较强。 本文作者：刘晨明/ 郑恺 报告摘要 随着 前期市场风格极致裂口有所弥合，市场对于下一阶段的风格较为关注。我们主要对比以下【三类资 产】：经济周期、稳定价值、景气 成长。 年末年初"炒预期"的阶段情绪退潮， 市场进入去伪求真窗口期 过去5年的数据显示，4月是A股一年当中"最交 易基本面"的一个月，二三季度也是"景气投资"最为有效 的时间窗口。这意味着，下一阶段，市场将从年末年初的"炒预期"，逐渐进入到对于业绩 的前瞻与验证， A股一季报的关注度随之抬升。 总量维度的一季报前瞻： 收入和利润有望双双企稳回升 参考一季度的工业增加值/PPI ，以及1-2月的工业企业利润数据，一季报A股非金融总体的收入增速、利 润增速有望筑底回升。 其中，基于统计局口径，1-2 月已经释放利润改善趋势的行业主要是： 涨价线索 （有色、化学原料及化 学制 品）、 设备类 （交运设备、通用设备、专用设备）、 稳定类 （燃气 、 废弃资源利用）、 出口链 （纺织、汽车）等。 | 大类 | 行业类别 | 细分行业 | | 25年1-2月 2024-12 2024 ...

Core Insights - The report indicates an improvement in the economic climate, particularly in sectors such as non-ferrous metals, construction materials, lithium batteries, automotive, and agriculture [3][4] - Price increases are noted in upstream non-ferrous metals and construction materials, midstream manufacturing in lithium batteries, and downstream consumption in automotive and agriculture [3][4] - The report suggests focusing on cyclical resource products, consumer goods, and financial sectors, while also considering growth assets that are experiencing a turnaround [3][4] Industry Overview Upstream Sector - The prices of iron ore and rebar have decreased week-on-week, while the operating rate of blast furnaces has increased [9] - COMEX gold and silver futures prices have risen week-on-week, along with copper prices and rare earth metal prices [11][12] Midstream Manufacturing - In the lithium battery sector, the average price of lithium iron phosphate remains stable, while the price of ternary batteries has increased week-on-week [13] - In the photovoltaic sector, the average price of polysilicon remains unchanged, while the price of PERC solar cells has decreased [13] Downstream Consumption - In February, automotive sales reached 2.129 million units, a year-on-year increase of 34.4%, with significant growth in new energy vehicle sales [18] - The production of power batteries and energy storage batteries has also seen a substantial year-on-year increase of 128.2% [18] TMT Sector - The semiconductor sector shows an increase in the average spot prices of DRAM and NAND, with significant revenue growth reported by IC manufacturing and design companies [25] Financial and Real Estate Sector - The report highlights a decline in real estate development investment and housing starts, while the transaction area of commercial housing in major cities has increased significantly year-on-year [29][30]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a cautious but optimistic outlook for the A-share market in 2024, indicating a potential for structural opportunities to increase compared to 2023 [1][2] Core Views - The report identifies three main perspectives on the A-share market: 1. The market is expected to stabilize, avoiding extremes of caution or exuberance seen in previous years [1] 2. Market fluctuations are anticipated to be more frequent but with smaller amplitudes, with a better environment expected in the second half of the year [2] 3. The importance of bottom-up stock selection is expected to rise, contrasting with the previous year's focus on top-down macro strategies [3][4] Summary by Sections Market Outlook - The report posits that the significant market bottom occurred in September of the previous year, with limited chances of returning to that level in the next 1-2 years [1] - It anticipates a return to normal risk preferences, with structural opportunities likely to increase in 2024 [1] Market Rhythm - The report notes that the market's rhythm in the previous year was characterized by significant ups and downs, while this year is expected to have quicker changes with smaller fluctuations [2] - The second half of the year is projected to have a better market environment compared to the first half [2] Asset Allocation - The report emphasizes a shift from top-down macro strategies to bottom-up stock selection, indicating that last year's major events have already occurred, leading to a focus on ongoing trends rather than new turning points [3] - It highlights three key investment themes for the year: 1. Not all growth stocks are worth buying, with a focus on technology growth in the first half and renewable energy manufacturing in the second half [4][11] 2. Some resilient external demand should still be considered [11] 3. Dividend assets are viewed as offering structural opportunities rather than a broad trend [12] Sector Performance - The report indicates that the technology, media, and telecommunications (TMT) sector has seen significant trading volume, accounting for approximately 46% of the A-share market recently [6] - It draws parallels to the market conditions of 2013, where the overall index remained flat while certain sectors, like the ChiNext, experienced substantial growth [6][10] Policy Support - The report suggests that policy support will continue to be a trend, with themes such as mergers and acquisitions, restructuring, and debt repayment expected to remain relevant [13]