Group 1 - Recent southbound capital flows have shifted away from new consumption, biomedicine, and banking sectors, which were previously favored [1][3] - Despite a slight net outflow from foreign capital in Hong Kong and A-shares, there remains an overall optimistic outlook for the Chinese stock market among foreign investors [1][12] - The investment strategy is leaning towards a "barbell" approach, focusing on dividend-yielding assets and resource sectors while also targeting growth themes like innovative pharmaceuticals and technology [1][10] Group 2 - The banking sector has seen a notable shift to net outflows, contrasting with its previous strong performance, particularly within the CSI 300 index [3][4] - New consumption stocks, such as Pop Mart, have experienced significant valuation increases, but recent trends indicate a correction phase [4][9] - The outlook for the second half of the year suggests potential opportunities in the Hang Seng Technology sector and high-quality traditional enterprises, which are currently undervalued [10][11] Group 3 - Foreign capital remains under-allocated in the Chinese market, with ample room for increased investment, particularly in the context of a low-interest-rate environment [12][13] - The Hong Kong IPO market is witnessing a revival, with 51 companies having raised a total of HKD 124 billion so far this year, indicating strong market sentiment [12][13] - Active IPO activities are generally associated with improved market sentiment, which could positively impact related A-share and Hong Kong-listed companies [13]

n 分析师：吕思江 n SAC编号：S1050522030001 n 联系人：武文静 n SAC编号：S1050123070007 0 1 多 维 量 化 轮 动 模 型 ： 资金博弈转为看多成长 1 . 1 本月观点：资金博弈转为看多成长 证 券 研 究 报 告 金融工程月报 资金博弈重归成长 ——7月风格轮动观点 报告日期：2025年7月4日 | 业绩统计 | 创业板指 | 中证红利全收益 | 基准:等权配置 | | 轮动策略 轮动策略/基准 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 累计收益 | -21.73% | 89.19% | 28.78% | 259.92% | 176.43% | | 年化收益 | -2.62% | 7.16% | 2.78% | 14.91% | 11.66% | | 最大回撤 | 57.05% | 27.08% | 35.22% | 27.08% | 13.16% | | 年化波动率 | 28.41% | 17.70% | 20.87% | 23.16% | 10.97% | | 年化sharpe | -0.09 | 0.40 | ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for small-cap growth style in July, with a recommendation for sectors such as consumer services, real estate, and textiles to perform well in the short term [1][5][10] Core Insights - The macroeconomic indicators show a mixed impact on different asset classes, with PPI underperforming and CPI exceeding expectations negatively affecting the stock market, while industrial value-added and PMI exceeding expectations positively influence the commodity market [1][3] - The report highlights a bullish signal for the stock market based on timing indicators, suggesting a potential upward trend, while the bond market shows signs of overheating risk [1][4] - The report emphasizes the importance of sector rotation strategies, recommending industries that may outperform in the current fast rotation environment [1][5] Summary by Sections Macroeconomic Analysis - The report notes that the latest PPI data was below expectations, while CPI has exceeded expectations for two consecutive months, leading to a negative impact on the stock market [3] - Industrial value-added has exceeded expectations for three consecutive months, along with a favorable exchange rate and PMI, positively impacting the commodity market [3] Timing Indicators - Three indicators triggered bullish signals for the stock market, while three bearish signals were noted for the bond market, indicating potential upward movement for stocks and caution for bonds [3][4] Sector Rotation Strategy - Recommended sectors for July include comprehensive, light manufacturing, real estate, building materials, consumer services, and textiles, which are expected to perform well in the short term [1][5] Style Analysis - The report indicates that small-cap growth style is expected to outperform in July, with a notable shift towards growth style over value style [6][7] - The report highlights that the sentiment and market conditions favor growth style, with a total score of 1.32 indicating a strong preference for growth [7] Quantitative Strategy Performance - The report details that small-cap strategies have outperformed major small-cap indices, with specific strategies yielding returns of 11.4% and 9.6% [8][9] - The growth-oriented strategies have shown significant returns, with one strategy yielding 9.4% in June and over 22% in the first half of the year [9] Market Outlook for July - The report maintains a positive outlook for July, suggesting that both growth-oriented and small-cap strategies still present opportunities despite some valuation concerns [10]

Group 1 - Foreign capital increased its holdings of domestic stocks in May, with a net inflow of 33 billion USD from non-bank sectors, indicating a stable foreign exchange market [1] - Morgan Stanley reported that global investors are increasingly interested in diversifying their portfolios to include Chinese stocks, driven by concerns of missing out on China's technological advancements [2] - The gap between the weight of Chinese stocks in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index and the actual allocation by global investors is 2.4 percentage points, suggesting significant room for increased investment [3] Group 2 - Nomura believes that Chinese equity assets will outperform overseas markets in the second half of the year, supported by government policies favoring growth sectors [3] - The static valuation of the CSI 300 index is undervalued by 25.6% compared to its ten-year average, making it attractive for long-term domestic investors [3] - Goldman Sachs expressed a positive outlook on Chinese stocks, citing potential resilience in the RMB exchange rate and an expected improvement in corporate earnings [3]

Group 1 - The core theme of the Nomura Orient International Securities 2025 Mid-term Strategy Conference is to explore certainty in the context of geopolitical risks and increasing uncertainty, focusing on how to grasp the certainty of industries and assets, as well as market trends and investment strategies [1] - The external environment in the first half of the year shows that the euro, which accounts for over 60% of the dollar index, has appreciated against the dollar since March, indicating a trend of capital withdrawal from dollar assets [1] - Non-dollar assets received strong liquidity support in the first half of the year, with international capital favoring European bonds, European stocks, and the Hang Seng Technology Index [1] Group 2 - Nomura Orient International Securities believes that the market has fully priced in most potential changes, including consistent expectations for the US economy (strong reality, weak expectations) and the Chinese economy (weak reality, strong expectations) [2] - The firm anticipates that the second half of 2025 will be a critical juncture for market direction, with the potential for increased volatility as expectations and realities align over time [1][2] - The firm projects that the revenue growth rate for the CSI 300 will be 4.5% and 5.3% for 2025 and 2026, respectively, with corresponding net profit growth rates of 2.8% and 6.7% [2] Group 3 - The stable dividend yield of dividend stocks and segmented technology growth sectors (military, new energy, and new consumption) are expected to be more suitable for the market environment in the second half of the year [2] - The firm notes that the static valuation of the CSI 300 is still undervalued from an ERP perspective, being 25.6% lower than the ten-year average, making it attractive for long-term domestic allocation funds [2] - The comparison of market performance post-trade friction easing in 2018 with the current market performance since May 10, 2025, suggests that domestic consumption and technology sectors may still have significant upside potential [2]

野村东方国际证券：预计中国权益资产将在下半年跑赢海外市场 智通财经6月10日电，野村东方国际证券策略团队表示，考虑到国内强政策预期、亚太新兴市场在弱美 元及国际资金关注下更好的流动性环境，预计中国权益资产将在下半年跑赢海外市场。野村东方国际证 券认为，2025年下半年将是市场再度选择方向的重要节点。在此期间，市场的波动率可能出现放大。在 波动性上升的背景下，政策对成长行业的有力支持不容忽视，这可能促使市场将更多目光投向新兴高景 气成长领域。股息率稳定的红利股和细分科技成长行业将更适合下半年的市场环境。此外，内需消费和 科技行业可能仍有较大空间。 ...