2026年资本市场好戏不断，人工智能、硬科技忙着造富，消费赛道却杀出一匹黑马——COMMUNE幻师正式冲击港股"餐酒吧第一股"，还被高瓴重仓加 持！ 真正打动张磊的，是他的长期主义和"消费+科技"打法——不仅做融合场景，还搭数字化供应链和数据中台，这正好踩中高瓴的投资逻辑。IPO前高瓴持 股9.63%，是最大外部股东，从A轮一路跟投。 这门生意到底怎么赚钱？核心是"以餐引酒，以酒留客"。2024年它在40多个城市开了112家店，连续三年 营收行业第一，市占率7.8%。关键是酒水毛利超87%，自有品牌撑起盈利，但净利润有波动，赛道整体规模不大。 竞争也很激烈：海伦司600多家店专攻 平价微醺，Bistro走"小而美"路线，海底捞直接跨界跟风。更棘手的是，公司有1.75亿元流动负债净额，这次IPO就是为了募资扩张、补供应链短板。 其实 它的崛起，本质是抓住了年轻人的情绪价值需求——不只是吃饭喝酒，而是要社交打卡的空间。而高瓴押注的，正是这种"传统生意+科技赋能"的新物 种。 至于能不能顺利上市、高瓴能否再赚一笔，让我们拭目以待。你去过COMMUNE幻师吗？ 今天就来扒一扒这门"日餐夜酒"的生意，到底藏着什么门道？ ...

Core Viewpoint - The new consumption sector is experiencing a significant shift in investment logic, driven by the Z generation's willingness to pay for emotional and identity-related values, leading to a divergence in market perceptions and valuations [1] Group 1: Valuation Discrepancies - The essence of the current market divergence in new consumption stems from a clash between traditional consumption investment frameworks and emerging consumption models, leading to challenges in long-term value assessment [2] - New consumption assets have broken the traditional valuation anchor of 20-30 times PE, shifting from "stable" to "cyclical" attributes, with the sustainability of demand driven by emotional and social factors still in question [2] - The differences between new and traditional consumption models manifest across multiple dimensions, including supply chain dynamics, consumer motivations, and communication channels, indicating that future excess returns will come from companies that can precisely address niche demands [2] Group 2: Market Sentiment and Methodological Clashes - The lack of sustainable methodologies supporting "emotional value" has led to market skepticism, where funding factors often overshadow fundamentals, influencing short-term price volatility [3] - The divergence in cognitive frameworks has resulted in a stark contrast between bullish and bearish perspectives, with bullish investors focusing on growth potential and bearish investors prioritizing profitability stability and brand strength [3] Group 3: Investment Signals and Strategies - Investors are advised to focus on the rationality of valuations and the search for a new equilibrium, with key observations indicating that new consumption assets are currently valued reasonably, driven by performance rather than speculative bubbles [4] - The performance of new consumption sectors is influenced not only by individual stocks but also by overall market conditions, highlighting the importance of dynamic assessments of growth potential and market trends [5] - Strategies such as "consumption + overseas expansion" and "consumption + technology" are gaining traction, with a focus on global demand fulfillment and leveraging technological innovations to create new consumer needs [6] Group 4: Future Outlook and Investment Opportunities - Looking ahead to 2026, the new consumption sector is expected to return to its value roots, with a focus on companies that understand consumer needs and can convert short-term trends into long-term competitive advantages [7] - The low valuation environment presents potential investment opportunities, particularly in service consumption sectors that can stimulate employment and economic growth [7] - The emphasis on cost-effectiveness and the integration of emotional and health-related consumption trends are expected to remain significant areas for exploration in the new consumption landscape [7] Group 5: Core Logic of New Consumption Investment - The fundamental logic of new consumption investment revolves around identifying "true demand," with a focus on companies that can sustainably meet real consumer needs and build competitive barriers [8]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment outlook for the retail industry, particularly highlighting strong performance in jewelry and instant retail sectors [4][8]. Core Insights - The "Double 11" e-commerce sales showed steady growth, with instant retail experiencing significant increases. Categories such as clothing, cosmetics, and jewelry performed well, with jewelry retail sales increasing by 37.6% year-on-year [4][8]. - Instant retail sales reached RMB 67 billion, marking a 138.4% increase year-on-year, driven by platforms like Meituan and Taobao [4][8]. - The report emphasizes the importance of consumption combined with technology as a key industry trend, with specific companies identified for potential investment [4][8]. Summary by Sections Overall Performance - According to the National Bureau of Statistics, online retail sales of physical goods in October increased by 4.9% year-on-year, with a slowdown of 2.4 percentage points from September [4][8]. - The total e-commerce sales during the 2025 "Double 11" promotion are projected to reach RMB 1,695 billion, a 14.2% increase year-on-year [4][8]. Category Performance - Retail sales for clothing, cosmetics, and jewelry in October showed year-on-year increases of 6.3%, 9.6%, and 37.6% respectively, indicating a strong recovery in these categories [4][8]. - Household appliances and furniture saw a decline in retail sales, with figures of -14.6% and +9.6% respectively, attributed to high base effects and timing fluctuations from national subsidies [4][8]. Key Investment Targets - The report highlights several companies as key investment targets, including jewelry leaders like Chow Tai Fook and Lao Pu Gold, as well as companies benefiting from the new consumption trend such as Gu Ming and Mixue Bingcheng [4][8].

Core Insights - Shanghai Jing'an District continues to lead in procurement orders at the China International Import Expo (CIIE), showcasing its role as an international hub for innovation and business services [1][12] - Major multinational companies like L'Oréal are not only participating in the CIIE but are also establishing local partnerships to enhance innovation and market presence in China [2][4] - Jing'an has transformed from a traditional trade zone to a global city core, focusing on high-end services, technological consumption, and cultural appeal [12][13] Group 1: Investment and Business Development - Jing'an District has attracted 142 multinational company headquarters and over 6,100 foreign enterprises, maintaining the highest density of headquarters economy and global brand concentration in Shanghai [4] - The district's strategy includes building collaborative platforms to address core challenges from R&D to commercialization, enhancing the competitive edge of local enterprises [4][8] - During the CIIE, 14 companies from various sectors signed investment agreements, indicating a shift towards long-term partnerships and shared risks [4][8] Group 2: International Collaboration and Market Entry - Companies like Grin and CAPOLAVORO have successfully navigated the Chinese market with the support of Jing'an's incubation services, demonstrating the district's role in facilitating foreign brands' entry [5][8] - Jing'an's global service provider plan aims to connect domestic companies with international markets, offering a comprehensive infrastructure for cross-border operations [8][12] - The district's unique exhibition areas at the CIIE highlight its commitment to showcasing regional industrial competitiveness and cultural charm [9][12] Group 3: Future Development and Strategic Goals - Jing'an aims to enhance its internationalization, focusing on high-end elements and service-driven economic growth, while promoting innovation in fashion consumption and technology [12][13] - The district plans to optimize its business environment and improve service mechanisms to support enterprise development [12][13] - Jing'an positions itself as a strategic partner for global innovators and investors, emphasizing its collaborative ecosystem for shared growth [13]

Core Insights - The recent launch of the China Europe Value Navigation Mixed Fund achieved a net subscription amount of 1.97 billion yuan within just one day of its offering, indicating strong demand for equity funds despite a volatile A-share market [1][2][3] Fund Performance and Trends - The China Europe Value Navigation Fund's subscription limit was set at 2 billion yuan, and it successfully raised 1.97 billion yuan by the end of its first day of offering [2] - The fund manager, Lan Xiaokang, has a strong track record, with his managed funds achieving significant returns, including a 170.24% return for the China Europe Dividend Enjoy Fund [2] - The performance of newly launched equity funds has been notable, with several funds achieving over 20% net value growth in the past month, particularly in technology and resource sectors [1][4][5] Market Dynamics - Despite the A-share market's stagnation, the issuance of equity funds remains robust, with 30 public funds opening for subscription in the week of October 20-26, 2023, and equity funds making up 76.67% of this total [3] - Over 10 actively managed equity funds have raised more than 1 billion yuan since the third quarter of this year, with some exceeding 2 billion yuan [3] Sector Focus - Technology and resource-themed funds have shown strong performance, with specific funds like Taikang Resource Selection and Huaxia Quantitative Stock Selection achieving net value growth rates of 23.28% and 25.2%, respectively [4][5] - The disparity in performance among newly launched funds is significant, with some funds experiencing negative returns while others, particularly those focused on technology and AI, have excelled [5][6] Future Outlook - Fund managers remain optimistic about the future of technology investments, emphasizing the potential of cyclical stocks and opportunities that combine consumption and technology [1][5] - Morgan Asset Management highlights strong performance in sectors like semiconductors and AI infrastructure, while also noting the market's current consolidation phase [6]