Core Insights - The report highlights a potential turning point in consumer behavior in China, suggesting that consumption may rise despite the ongoing downturn in the real estate sector, contrary to common market beliefs [9] - It emphasizes the U-shaped characteristic of consumer inclination around real estate turning points, indicating that consumer spending may improve before income does [9] - The report discusses the three effects of real estate industry changes on the economy: income effect, wealth effect, and crowding-out effect, with varying impacts at different development stages [9] Real Estate Sector Analysis - The report identifies that the first five years of the "post-real estate era" are dominated by the income effect, which negatively impacts consumer spending due to the downturn in real estate [9] - It notes that after the peak of the real estate cycle in 2020, disposable income growth and residential investment as a percentage of GDP have shown a downward trend, consistent with international patterns [9] - The report predicts that in the fifth to tenth years of the "post-real estate era," the crowding-out effect will weaken, leading to an improvement in consumer inclination and spending [9] Currency and Exchange Rate Insights - The report discusses the recent acceleration of the RMB appreciation since late January 2026, with the central bank's actions aimed at curbing this rapid rise [10][11] - It analyzes the potential impacts of the central bank's adjustments to the foreign exchange risk reserve ratio, suggesting that while it may stabilize the pace of appreciation, it is unlikely to change the overall trend [12] - The report anticipates that the RMB may experience short-term adjustments but could continue a steady appreciation in the medium to long term, driven by market forces [12] Transportation and Shipping Industry Insights - The report indicates that the current shipping market is experiencing an uptrend due to a broader energy chain cycle, with oil tankers and dry bulk shipping showing strong correlations [13][16] - It highlights the significant increase in VLCC (Very Large Crude Carrier) TCE (Time Charter Equivalent) rates, reaching $200,000 per day, driven by supply constraints and geopolitical tensions [16] - The report recommends specific shipping companies, such as China Shipping and ST Songfa, as potential investment opportunities due to the favorable market conditions [16]

房地产行业景气变化，对经济的影响大致可归结为三种效应："收入效应"、"财富效应"与"挤出效应"。 "收入效应"体现为房地产关联数十个行业，行业景气影响总需求、就业，进而影响居民收入和消费。"财 富效应"，是指房价上涨带来有房者财富增值，拉动居民消费倾向。"挤出效应"，是指房价上涨压制购房 者或潜在购房者的消费倾向。不同发展阶段，三种效应的影响程度是不同的。 "后地产时代"的前5年，"收入效应"占主导，拖累居民消费走低。 房地产进入集中调整阶段，首先会对 总需求、就业产生冲击，进而影响收入和消费；经验显示，主要经济体的房地产周期见顶后，居民可支 配收入增速与住宅投资占GDP比重下行趋势基本趋同，大致会经历10年左右的下行期，平均增速由 8%~10%回落至3%~4%。我国房地产周期见顶于2020年，与海外规律基本一致。 "后地产时代"第5-10年，"挤出效应"明显弱化，消费倾向改善带动消费先于收入出现趋势改善。 房价见 顶后，"攒钱买房"对消费的"挤出效应"明显缓和，作为潜在购房者，25-40岁的潜在购房者消费能力被解 放，他们恰巧是社会消费主力；国际经验显示，"后地产时代"第5年前后开始，消费倾向由"持续下降" ...

2026 年 02 月 28 日 内 相关研究 证券分析师 赵伟 A0230524070010 zhaowei@swsresearch.com 屠强 A0230521070002 tuqiang@swsresearch.com 贾东旭 A0230522100003 jiadx@swsresearch.com 侯倩楠 A0230524080006 houqn@swsresearch.com 研究支持 耿佩璇 A0230124080003 gengpx@swsresearch.com 联系人 屠强 A0230521070002 tuqiang@swsresearch.com 申万宏源研究微信服务- , 消费"升" "打破共识" 系列之一 本篇是"打破共识"系列首篇。市场通常认为，消费会持续受累于地产下行，现实并非如此；国际经 验显示，地产调整后半程，消费倾向会率先出现趋势性抬升，当前中国或正处于上述"拐点"。 国际经验显示，消费倾向在房地产拐点前后呈"U 型"特征、居民消费早于收入改善。 ● 房地产行业景气变化，对经济的影响大致可归结为三种效应："收入效应"、"财富效应"与"挤出 效应"。"收入效应"体现为，房地 ...

国 内 经 济 相关研究 证券分析师 赵伟 A0230524070010 zhaowei@swsresearch.com 屠强 A0230521070002 tuqiang@swsresearch.com 贾东旭 A0230522100003 jiadx@swsresearch.com 侯倩楠 A0230524080006 houqn@swsresearch.com 研究支持 耿佩璇 A0230124080003 gengpx@swsresearch.com 联系人 屠强 A0230521070002 tuqiang@swsresearch.com 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 2026 年 02 月 28 日 地产"落"，消费"升" ——"打破共识"系列之一 本篇是"打破共识"系列首篇。市场通常认为，消费会持续受累于地产下行，现实并非如此；国际经 验显示，地产调整后半程，消费倾向会率先出现趋势性抬升，当前中国或正处于上述"拐点"。 ⚫ 国际经验显示，消费倾向在房地产拐点前后呈"U 型"特征、居民消费早于收入改善。 房地产行业景气变化，对经济的影响大致可归结为三种效应："收入效应"、"财富效 ...