Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Southbound Capital Monthly Net Purchase Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model uses the monthly net purchase amount of Southbound Capital to evaluate its effectiveness in driving sector rotation in the Hong Kong stock market[12][40]. - **Model Construction Process**: - The net purchase amount for each stock is calculated as: $$ S_{i,t} = (N_{i,t} - N_{i,t-1}) * P_{i,t} $$ Where: \( N_{i,t} \) = Southbound Capital holdings of stock \( i \) on day \( t \)[37] \( P_{i,t} \) = Average price of stock \( i \) on day \( t \)[37] - The sector-level net purchase amount is aggregated as: $$ Ind_{t} = \sum S_{i,t} $$ Where \( Ind_{t} \) represents the cumulative net purchase amount for the sector on day \( t \)[37]. - **Model Evaluation**: The model demonstrates a positive Rank IC mean, indicating its effectiveness in sector rotation strategies[40]. 2. Model Name: Market Cap-Adjusted Southbound Capital Model - **Model Construction Idea**: Adjust the Southbound Capital net purchase amount by sector market capitalization to improve strategy performance[40]. - **Model Construction Process**: - The net purchase amount is calculated as in the previous model. - Adjustments are made based on the market capitalization of each sector to normalize the influence of large-cap sectors[40]. - **Model Evaluation**: This adjustment improves strategy returns and reduces maximum drawdown compared to the unadjusted model[46][48]. 3. Model Name: Three-Year Percentile Southbound Capital Model - **Model Construction Idea**: Use the three-year percentile rank of Southbound Capital net purchases to identify sector preferences over a longer historical period[40]. - **Model Construction Process**: - Calculate the three-year percentile rank of the net purchase amount for each sector. - Rank sectors based on their percentile values to determine rotation preferences[40]. - **Model Evaluation**: The three-year percentile model provides a longer-term perspective but shows slightly lower Rank IC values compared to the unadjusted model[40]. 4. Model Name: Market Cap-Adjusted Three-Year Percentile Model - **Model Construction Idea**: Combine market capitalization adjustments with the three-year percentile rank to enhance strategy robustness[40]. - **Model Construction Process**: - Apply market cap adjustments to the three-year percentile rank of net purchases. - Rank sectors based on the adjusted values to guide rotation decisions[40]. - **Model Evaluation**: This model achieves the best overall performance, with the highest Sharpe ratio and IR among all tested strategies[46][48]. --- Model Backtest Results 1. Southbound Capital Monthly Net Purchase Model - **Annualized Return**: 4.73% - **Excess Return**: 3.22% - **Maximum Drawdown**: 56.01% - **Sharpe Ratio**: 0.3130 - **IR**: 0.3864[52] 2. Market Cap-Adjusted Southbound Capital Model - **Annualized Return**: 5.40% - **Excess Return**: 3.89% - **Maximum Drawdown**: 50.24% - **Sharpe Ratio**: 0.3384 - **IR**: 0.3901[52] 3. Three-Year Percentile Southbound Capital Model - **Annualized Return**: 3.61% - **Excess Return**: -2.05% - **Maximum Drawdown**: 54.33% - **Sharpe Ratio**: 0.2704 - **IR**: 0.1498[52] 4. Market Cap-Adjusted Three-Year Percentile Model - **Annualized Return**: 7.99% - **Excess Return**: 2.33% - **Maximum Drawdown**: 45.84% - **Sharpe Ratio**: 0.4350 - **IR**: 0.4713[52] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: Southbound Capital Monthly Net Purchase - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measure the monthly net purchase amount of Southbound Capital to assess its impact on sector rotation[40]. - **Factor Construction Process**: - Calculate the net purchase amount for each stock and aggregate it at the sector level as described in the model construction process[37]. - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor shows a positive Rank IC mean, indicating its predictive power for sector rotation[40]. 2. Factor Name: Market Cap-Adjusted Southbound Capital - **Factor Construction Idea**: Adjust the net purchase amount by sector market capitalization to reduce bias from large-cap sectors[40]. - **Factor Construction Process**: - Apply market cap adjustments to the net purchase amount as described in the model construction process[40]. - **Factor Evaluation**: The adjustment improves the factor's effectiveness, as evidenced by higher Rank IC values[40]. 3. Factor Name: Three-Year Percentile Southbound Capital - **Factor Construction Idea**: Use the three-year percentile rank of net purchases to capture longer-term sector preferences[40]. - **Factor Construction Process**: - Calculate the three-year percentile rank for each sector's net purchase amount[40]. - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor provides a longer-term perspective but shows slightly lower Rank IC values compared to the unadjusted factor[40]. 4. Factor Name: Market Cap-Adjusted Three-Year Percentile - **Factor Construction Idea**: Combine market cap adjustments with the three-year percentile rank to enhance factor robustness[40]. - **Factor Construction Process**: - Apply market cap adjustments to the three-year percentile rank as described in the model construction process[40]. - **Factor Evaluation**: This factor achieves the best overall performance, with the highest Rank IC values among all tested factors[40]. --- Factor Backtest Results 1. Southbound Capital Monthly Net Purchase Factor - **Rank IC Mean**: 7.72% - **Rank IC t-Value**: 24.31%[41] 2. Market Cap-Adjusted Southbound Capital Factor - **Rank IC Mean**: 5.15% - **Rank IC t-Value**: 15.66%[41] 3. Three-Year Percentile Southbound Capital Factor - **Rank IC Mean**: 4.13% - **Rank IC t-Value**: 12.75%[41] 4. Market Cap-Adjusted Three-Year Percentile Factor - **Rank IC Mean**: 4.55% - **Rank IC t-Value**: 14.82%[41]

Group 1 - The article emphasizes that the Hong Kong stock market is currently undervalued in the consumer goods sector, with a potential for a rebound driven by the child-rearing subsidy policy [2][6] - The child-rearing subsidy policy serves as a catalyst for the rotation towards the consumer goods sector, with significant price increases observed in entertainment products, jewelry, and cosmetics, which rose by 123.5%, 119.2%, and 40.5% respectively from January 2, 2025, to July 21, 2025 [2] - The valuation metrics indicate a significant disparity between new consumption and traditional consumer goods, with the weighted P/E ratios for entertainment products, jewelry, and cosmetics at 92.5x, 48.2x, and 45.5x, while the ratios for leisure food, beverages, personal care, and home goods are much lower [2] Group 2 - The mid-term outlook suggests an increased probability of a reversal in the consumer goods sector, as the market has already priced in pessimistic expectations for certain industries, including healthcare and essential consumption [3] - The article argues that while the fundamentals of the consumer goods sector may still be improving, the stock prices are poised for a breakout, reflecting future expectations [4] - The investment landscape in Hong Kong is not limited to leading companies, as there is a growing presence of institutional investors, which is expected to sustain high levels of investment in the Hong Kong market [4] Group 3 - The concept of "good housing" is introduced as a structural increment in the real estate market, which may lead to a supply-demand imbalance, further supported by the child-rearing subsidy policy [5] - The article highlights the importance of continuous supportive policies for child-rearing, such as free preschool education, which will lower the cost of raising children and enhance birth rates [5] - The introduction of the child-rearing subsidy policy reinforces the bullish outlook for the Hong Kong stock market, indicating a potential bull market driven by structural reforms and supportive policies [6]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the undervaluation of consumer stocks in the Hong Kong market, particularly in the context of the recently introduced childcare subsidy policy, which is expected to catalyze a rebound in the consumer sector [3][11] - The report highlights the potential for a mid-term reversal in the consumer sector, driven by improving fundamentals and the market's previous pessimism towards certain industries [3][11] - The report identifies the continuous support from government policies, such as free preschool education, as a significant catalyst for enhancing consumer sentiment and boosting birth rates [3][11] Summary by Sections Hong Kong Consumer Sector Analysis - The report notes that consumer goods stocks are currently undervalued and are likely to experience a rebound due to policy catalysts, particularly the childcare subsidy policy [3][11] - It provides data showing significant price increases in various consumer sectors, with entertainment products and cosmetics seeing increases of 123.5% and 40.5% respectively from January to July 2025 [11] - The report suggests that the consumer sector is at a turning point, with the potential for a mid-term reversal as the market begins to reflect improved fundamentals [3][11] Company Analysis: Ruike Laser (300747) - Ruike Laser is recognized as a leading enterprise in the fiber laser sector, with a comprehensive vertical integration capability from semiconductor laser chips to various laser devices [4][15] - The company has demonstrated a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 30.01% in revenue and 25.89% in net profit from 2014 to 2024, indicating strong growth potential [15] - The report highlights the increasing demand for laser equipment in industrial applications, particularly due to the advantages of precision and efficiency over traditional processing methods [4][15] Special Applications and Market Potential - The report discusses the strategic positioning of Ruike Laser in special applications, particularly in defense systems, where laser technology is becoming crucial for modern warfare [4][15] - It notes the potential market space for laser defense systems, particularly in low-altitude anti-drone applications, which are gaining traction globally [4][15] Lithium Battery Equipment Sector - The report highlights the increasing application of laser technology in solid-state batteries, which is expected to enhance the value of equipment in this sector [14][16] - It outlines the advantages of solid-state batteries, including higher energy density and safety, which are driving demand for related equipment [14][16] - Key companies in the lithium battery equipment sector, such as Lianying Laser and Delong Laser, are identified as significant players in the development of solid-state battery production technologies [14][16]

Core Insights - The report highlights the implementation of a national childcare subsidy program, providing an annual subsidy of 3600 yuan for children under three years old, primarily funded by the central government with potential local adjustments [2][9][12] - The expected financial impact of the subsidy is estimated to reduce childcare costs and potentially increase social retail sales by approximately 0.2 percentage points, with total funding requirements for the subsidy projected at around 117 billion yuan by 2025 [2][9][12] - The report also emphasizes the importance of systemic support policies in areas such as employment, education, and healthcare to complement the childcare subsidy, drawing on experiences from OECD countries [3][9] Company Insights: Laopu Gold (6181.HK) - Laopu Gold's performance forecast for the first half of 2025 indicates sales between 13.8 billion to 14.3 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 240% to 252%, with net profit expected to be between 2.23 billion to 2.28 billion yuan, a growth of 279% to 288% [3][12] - The brand's influence is expanding, with significant growth in both online and offline sales channels, including a strong performance during the Tmall 618 sales event, where Laopu Gold ranked first in the gold category [3][12] - The opening of a new store in Singapore is expected to enhance the brand's international presence, with strong initial sales performance and plans for further expansion into high-end markets [3][12] - The company is focusing on product innovation and brand building to enhance market penetration among high-net-worth consumers, with plans to improve customer experience and loyalty through exclusive offerings [3][12]