以下文章来源于申万宏源策略 ，作者申万宏源策略 申万宏源策略 . 我们强调体系性、实战性 重点关注港股大众消费的行业轮动！ ——港股行业比较之育儿补贴政策影响分析 刘雅婧/林丽梅/郝丹阳/冯彧/王胜 一、大众消费品股价处于低估位置，明确看好港股大众消费在相关政策催化下补涨。 二、有别于大众的认识： （1）基本面有待改善，但股价蓄势待发，提前反映未来预期： 部分投资者可能仍然纠结于育 儿补贴政策对新出生人口的实际拉动情况，以及对相关产业基本面的实际改善作用。但我们认 为，港股"牛市氛围"，市场积极尝试各类结构，育儿补贴政策形成了行业轮动到大众消费品的 催化剂，结合前文所述板块低估位置，我们认为相关产业链是短期新的结构性机会。 （2）再次重申港股投资不仅在龙头： 2025年我们连续发布多篇港股策略报告提示，伴随南向 投资者话语权上升，港股投资机会不仅仅是龙头（详见6月10日《成长扩散——2025下半年港股 行业比较投资策略》）。结合2025年主动权益公募基金二季报对港股持仓来看，全部持仓口径 之下整体港股仓位为16.9%，可投港股的基金仓位为28.8%，其中主投A股基金的港股仓位为 26.4%，港股底层优质资产多 ...

指数 收盘 涨跌（％） | 名称 | （点） | 1 日 | 5 日 | 1 月 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上证指数 | 3610 | 0.33 | 5.42 | 0.78 | | 深证综指 | 2222 | 0.46 | 8.26 | 1.52 | | 风格指数(％) | 昨日 | 近 1 个月 | 近 6 个月 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 大盘指数 | 0.27 | 5.79 | 8.91 | | 中盘指数 | 0.79 | 8.07 | 10.08 | | 小盘指数 | 0.66 | 8.62 | 16.32 | | 涨幅居前 行业(％) | 昨日 | 近 1 个月 | 近 6 个月 | | 医疗服务Ⅱ | 5.38 | 31.07 | 47.43 | | 通信设备 | 4.62 | 20.88 | 31.32 | | 普钢Ⅱ | 3.48 | 24.93 | 26.83 | | 非金属材料 | 3.29 | 9.65 | 21.9 | | Ⅱ 地面兵装Ⅱ | 3.19 | 16.4 | 82.16 | | 跌幅居前 行业(％ ...

Core Insights - The report highlights the implementation of a national childcare subsidy program, providing an annual subsidy of 3600 yuan for children under three years old, primarily funded by the central government with potential local adjustments [2][9][12] - The expected financial impact of the subsidy is estimated to reduce childcare costs and potentially increase social retail sales by approximately 0.2 percentage points, with total funding requirements for the subsidy projected at around 117 billion yuan by 2025 [2][9][12] - The report also emphasizes the importance of systemic support policies in areas such as employment, education, and healthcare to complement the childcare subsidy, drawing on experiences from OECD countries [3][9] Company Insights: Laopu Gold (6181.HK) - Laopu Gold's performance forecast for the first half of 2025 indicates sales between 13.8 billion to 14.3 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 240% to 252%, with net profit expected to be between 2.23 billion to 2.28 billion yuan, a growth of 279% to 288% [3][12] - The brand's influence is expanding, with significant growth in both online and offline sales channels, including a strong performance during the Tmall 618 sales event, where Laopu Gold ranked first in the gold category [3][12] - The opening of a new store in Singapore is expected to enhance the brand's international presence, with strong initial sales performance and plans for further expansion into high-end markets [3][12] - The company is focusing on product innovation and brand building to enhance market penetration among high-net-worth consumers, with plans to improve customer experience and loyalty through exclusive offerings [3][12]