策略专题报告 做时间的朋友 策略周末谈（1102） 核心结论 牛市进入第二阶段：从"科技牛"向"财富牛"过渡 10 月"超级宏观月"结束后，"科技牛"进入博弈深水区，顺周期顺势成为配置 的更优选——市场估值已经较高，如果后续 EPS 不改善，市场需要震荡调整， 顺周期可以阶段性避险，而如果 EPS 改善，则大概率是顺周期领涨。我们认为， 当前时点是做多顺周期的最佳窗口，以下是五个做多顺周期的理由—— 理由一：顺周期是"时间的朋友" 三季度开始，市场开始交易盈利能力的变化（△ROE），换句话说：久违的景气 投资开始回归。虽然市场整体在定价盈利能力变化，但对不同行业的定价尺度不 同——TMT 股价明显领先于基本面改善，而顺周期股价则落后于基本面改善。 在市场震荡调整的关口，顺周期更像"时间的朋友"。 近期的报告中，我们反复强调跨境资本回流将有效反哺内需，事实上顺周期改善 的端倪已经出现。跨境资本即将加速回流中国，推动中国内需和优势制造以及有 供需缺口的全球商品系统性重估，并演化为各类生产要素的"涨价重估"，一如 2020 年疫情后跨境资金回流驱动的一轮茅/宁核心资产牛市。 理由四：公募新规对"再平衡"的导向 理由 ...

Core Viewpoint - Huatai Securities has released a strategy for Hong Kong stocks, indicating that the current global risk asset valuations are relatively high, with increased leveraged trading, leading to heightened market volatility due to tariff risks, overseas credit, and liquidity concerns. The impact is more emotional rather than a fundamental reversal, suggesting that better opportunities for increasing positions may still need to be awaited [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - Global risk asset valuations are at a high percentile [1] - Increased leveraged trading is contributing to market volatility [1] - Current market impact is driven more by emotional factors than fundamental reversals [1] Group 2: Investment Recommendations - Shift from a broad market rally mindset to a focus on fundamental performance [1] - Attention should be given to technology hardware with upward revisions in earnings expectations over the past month [1] - Consider pharmaceutical stocks that have experienced sufficient price corrections [1] - Focus on leading internet companies and consumer goods with stable ROE and revenue stabilization [1]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Western Securities for Q4 2025 strategy outlook emphasizes the theme of "Attack and Defense Transformation," indicating that the market is at a critical juncture of "ice and fire conversion" [1]. Group 1: Cross-Border Capital Flow - The past few years have seen a divergence in monetary policy between the US and China, with the Fed's interest rate hikes leading to a capital outflow exceeding 16 trillion yuan, resulting in domestic price deflation and a negative cycle of "deflation-export-deflation" [1][21][26]. - The Fed's anticipated rate cuts in 2025 are expected to accelerate the return of cross-border capital, potentially reversing the negative cycle if the RMB appreciates beyond 7.0, making RMB-denominated assets more attractive than USD [1][34][30]. Group 2: Sino-US Technology Cycle - The technology cycle between China and the US is characterized by an "attack and defense transformation." China's high-end manufacturing has expanded through fiscal subsidies from 2019 to 2023, while the focus is shifting towards cash flow recovery and AI infrastructure investment [2][37]. - In contrast, the US has faced high unit costs in AI infrastructure due to early investments, which have hindered the commercialization of AI applications, leading to a "Ponzi-like" situation [2][37]. Group 3: Shift in Consumption Drivers - Historical trends from the US and Japan indicate that as economies mature, the driving force shifts from investment to consumption. China is currently transitioning to a consumption-driven economy, with evidence of a recovery in consumer spending [3][10]. - The anticipated return of cross-border capital and the restoration of wealth effects are expected to enhance consumer capacity and willingness, positioning consumption as a key driver for the upcoming bull market [3][10]. Group 4: Market Leadership Transition - The current concentration of public fund holdings in TMT (over 30%) suggests a high likelihood of a market leadership transition, as historical patterns indicate that such crowded positions often lead to shifts in market focus [3][8]. - The market style in Q4 may pivot towards high-end manufacturing and consumer sectors that still offer value, as the microstructure of A-shares shows signs of overcrowding [3][8]. Group 5: Industry Configuration - The report highlights a focus on the "New High" logic in industry configuration, emphasizing sectors such as non-ferrous metals, which benefit from global re-industrialization and de-dollarization, and consumer sectors like snacks, pets, and travel that are seeing increased demand [3][12]. - High-end manufacturing sectors, particularly in renewable energy, chemicals, and medical devices, are also highlighted as areas of interest due to their export advantages and the backdrop of domestic AI capabilities [3][12].

华泰证券研报表示，近期A股市场进入上行平台期，结合日历效应来看，节前投资者情绪或以避险为 主，但考虑到资金正反馈仍在持续、基本面改善仍在蓄势，市场或偏向缩量震荡。节后，宏观不确定性 减弱，投资者交投意愿存在回暖动力，市场进入政策及业绩布局的窗口期。配置上，考虑到上周TMT 板块成交额占比回升、季末资金存在风格调整需求，建议投资者小幅调整仓位，关注主线低位板块，如 港股科技、国产算力、机器人，"反内卷"中化工、电池及大众消费龙头。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has experienced adjustments after reaching new highs, but it remains in a consolidation phase since September, with a positive outlook on liquidity and market sustainability [1] Market Analysis - The current market's sustainability is heavily influenced by the liquidity situation, which appears to be positive [1] - There is a focus on the direction of market profitability moving forward, with ongoing improvements in overseas liquidity and geopolitical issues [1] - The domestic economic fundamentals are showing upward momentum, supporting a mid-term bullish outlook for the market [1] Investment Strategy - It is recommended to maintain a high position in the market, with an emphasis on balanced sector selection [1] - Attention should be given to the continuation of the positive trends indicated in the third-quarter reports [1] - Specific sectors to focus on include domestic computing power chains, innovative pharmaceuticals, robotics, chemicals, batteries, and leading consumer goods companies [1]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Huatai Securities indicates that after a brief period of profit-taking, the A-shares have turned upward, reaching a new phase high, with trading activity being a focal point for investors [1] Group 1: Market Trends - Domestic capital remains active, with a weakening trend of small-cap stocks switching to large-cap stocks, although this trend has not reversed [1] - There are clear characteristics focusing on industrial trends, but signs of loosening in the "hugging the big" strategy are evident [1] Group 2: Investment Strategy - It is suggested to maintain a high position in operations, but individual stock selection should return to a focus on cost-effectiveness and industry prosperity [1] - Key sectors to watch include domestic computing power chains, innovative pharmaceuticals, robotics, chemicals, batteries, and leading consumer goods [1]

Core Insights - The report from Huatai Securities indicates that A-shares have rebounded after a brief period of profit-taking, reaching a new phase high, with trading activity being a focal point for investors [1] Group 1: Market Trends - Domestic capital remains active, with a weakening trend of small-cap stocks switching to large-cap stocks, but no reversal has occurred [1] - The characteristics of focusing on industrial trends are still evident, although signs of loosening in stock clustering are observed [1] Group 2: Economic Outlook - The medium-term outlook for the domestic fundamentals is expected to remain upward, with high trading activity and an expanding profit-making effect [1] - It is recommended to maintain a high position in the market while returning to considerations of cost-effectiveness and economic prosperity in stock selection [1] Group 3: Sector Focus - Specific sectors to watch include domestic computing power chains, innovative pharmaceuticals, robotics, chemicals, batteries, and leading consumer goods companies [1]

人民财讯9月15日电，华泰证券研报表示，上周，A股在短暂消化止盈的压力后转涨，创阶段性新高。 交投活跃度是投资者关注的焦点。华泰证券观察到，国内资金继续活跃，小盘向大盘切换的趋势减弱但 没有逆转，聚焦产业趋势的特征依然明显，但抱团有松动迹象。国内基本面中期趋势向上预期至少难以 证伪，且交易活跃度偏高，赚钱效应扩散，建议维持较高仓位运行，但在择线上需要适度回归性价比与 景气度。具体地，关注国产算力链、创新药、机器人、化工、电池以及大众消费龙头。 转自：证券时报 ...

Core Viewpoint - The market is currently in a correction phase, returning to a volatile state, with the main structural breakthrough yet to be established. The market will digest the expected economic growth slowdown in the second half of 2025 and the policy focus on structural adjustments [4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The focus on self-sufficiency and defense industry presents a potential opportunity, with a "barbell strategy" (high dividend + micro-cap stocks) likely to see a rebound [4]. - The main catalyst for future upward movement is the trend against "involution," which is expected to improve the profitability of midstream manufacturing in the long term, although short-term momentum may face resistance [4]. Group 2: Sector Insights - The pharmaceutical and computer sectors (IT services, software development) are highlighted as key areas of interest [5]. - In the short term, consumer goods are expected to have a rebound potential, following the recent activity in Hong Kong's cyclical stocks, indicating a time window for revaluation of consumer goods [8]. - In the medium term, the probability of a reversal in the consumer goods sector is increasing, with the rise in consumer goods prices expected to solidify the current valuation of new consumption sectors [9]. Group 3: Policy and Economic Outlook - The recent meeting of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China focused on the development of the 15th Five-Year Plan, emphasizing the need for a stable and active capital market [11]. - The policy mentions the attractiveness and inclusivity of the Chinese capital market, reflecting ongoing attention to its healthy development [12]. - Non-manufacturing PMI remains above the threshold but shows signs of marginal slowdown, with input prices performing better than sales prices [15].

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the undervaluation of consumer stocks in the Hong Kong market, particularly in the context of the recently introduced childcare subsidy policy, which is expected to catalyze a rebound in the consumer sector [3][11] - The report highlights the potential for a mid-term reversal in the consumer sector, driven by improving fundamentals and the market's previous pessimism towards certain industries [3][11] - The report identifies the continuous support from government policies, such as free preschool education, as a significant catalyst for enhancing consumer sentiment and boosting birth rates [3][11] Summary by Sections Hong Kong Consumer Sector Analysis - The report notes that consumer goods stocks are currently undervalued and are likely to experience a rebound due to policy catalysts, particularly the childcare subsidy policy [3][11] - It provides data showing significant price increases in various consumer sectors, with entertainment products and cosmetics seeing increases of 123.5% and 40.5% respectively from January to July 2025 [11] - The report suggests that the consumer sector is at a turning point, with the potential for a mid-term reversal as the market begins to reflect improved fundamentals [3][11] Company Analysis: Ruike Laser (300747) - Ruike Laser is recognized as a leading enterprise in the fiber laser sector, with a comprehensive vertical integration capability from semiconductor laser chips to various laser devices [4][15] - The company has demonstrated a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 30.01% in revenue and 25.89% in net profit from 2014 to 2024, indicating strong growth potential [15] - The report highlights the increasing demand for laser equipment in industrial applications, particularly due to the advantages of precision and efficiency over traditional processing methods [4][15] Special Applications and Market Potential - The report discusses the strategic positioning of Ruike Laser in special applications, particularly in defense systems, where laser technology is becoming crucial for modern warfare [4][15] - It notes the potential market space for laser defense systems, particularly in low-altitude anti-drone applications, which are gaining traction globally [4][15] Lithium Battery Equipment Sector - The report highlights the increasing application of laser technology in solid-state batteries, which is expected to enhance the value of equipment in this sector [14][16] - It outlines the advantages of solid-state batteries, including higher energy density and safety, which are driving demand for related equipment [14][16] - Key companies in the lithium battery equipment sector, such as Lianying Laser and Delong Laser, are identified as significant players in the development of solid-state battery production technologies [14][16]