Core Viewpoint - The latest survey by the Bank of Mexico indicates an upward adjustment in the economic growth forecast for 2025 from 0.13% to 0.2%, marking the third consecutive month of improvement in growth expectations [1] Economic Growth Expectations - The Mexican Ministry of Finance has a more optimistic forecast for 2025, predicting economic growth between 1.50% and 2.30% [1] - The upward revision in growth expectations reflects a gradual improvement in the economic outlook [1] Inflation Projections - The year-end inflation rate forecast has been raised to 4.11%, the highest level since September 2024, and has increased for four consecutive months [1] - The persistent inflationary pressure is expected to limit the monetary policy flexibility [1] External Challenges and Currency Impact - Despite external challenges such as increased tariffs from the U.S., the depreciation of the peso is seen as a factor that may help mitigate the rising export costs [1] - The Ministry of Finance believes that the peso's depreciation can partially offset negative impacts, allowing for moderate economic growth [1] Policy Considerations - Experts suggest that the low growth forecast of 0.2% is significantly below macroeconomic potential, and the inflation expectation above 4% will constrain monetary policy options [1] - Future decisions by the Bank of Mexico will need to balance between interest rate cuts and controlling inflation, while fiscal policy must enhance support for the sluggish growth to avoid a dual trap of economic stagnation and rising prices [1]

Core Viewpoint - International institutions are raising their economic growth forecasts for China, highlighting the resilience and vitality of the Chinese economy as a reflection of policy effectiveness, market performance, and growth potential [1][2][3]. Economic Growth Resilience - Goldman Sachs predicts China's GDP growth rate for the first half of this year to reach 5.2%, with further upward potential, having raised its 2025 GDP growth forecast by 0.6 percentage points [2]. - Morgan Stanley and Deutsche Bank have also adjusted their GDP growth forecasts for the next two years, increasing them by 0.3 and 0.2 percentage points respectively [2]. - The shift from export-driven growth to policy-driven domestic demand is becoming evident, particularly with the impact of consumption policies [2][5]. Emerging Sector Development Potential - Foreign institutions emphasize the potential in technology innovation and market opportunities, with China positioned to lead in global high-tech competition, particularly in artificial intelligence [4]. - The strong resilience of the Chinese market is attracting global enterprises, as they plan to increase trade and manufacturing in China despite uncertainties in international trade [4]. Positive Changes in Consumption - The retail sector shows resilience, with significant growth in categories like home appliances and communication equipment, driven by consumption policies [5]. - The increase in retail sales in May, particularly in specific categories, contributed 1.9 percentage points to the total retail sales growth [5]. Sustained Economic Development - Recent economic indicators, such as the manufacturing PMI and logistics index, signal a positive trend in the Chinese economy [6]. - The Chinese government is expected to continue its moderately loose monetary policy and accelerate fiscal spending to boost domestic demand [7]. - The focus on expanding domestic demand and improving living standards is seen as crucial for activating the economy's internal momentum [7].

Group 1 - The outlook for China's economy is becoming less pessimistic, with ING raising its 2025 GDP growth forecast from 4.5% to 4.7% [1][4] - Goldman Sachs has revised its forecast for China's GDP growth from 4.0% to 4.6% [1][4] - JPMorgan has also increased its forecast for China's 2025 economic growth from 4.1% to 4.8% [1][2] Group 2 - The reduction of tariffs between China and the US is expected to boost economic optimism, leading to a recovery in stock markets [1][5] - JPMorgan estimates that the average effective tariff rate in the US will decrease from 24% to 14%, resulting in a $300 billion "tax cut effect" [1] - Barclays has updated its outlook for the US economy, stating that a mild recession in the second half of 2025 is no longer the base case scenario [2][1] Group 3 - Goldman Sachs has raised its year-end target for the S&P 500 index from 5900 to 6100, citing the positive impact of tariff reductions on corporate earnings [5] - Yardeni Research has also increased its year-end target for the S&P 500 from 6000 to 6500 [5] - The S&P 500 index closed at 5892 points on May 14, reflecting a 4% increase compared to before the announcement of tariff reductions [5]

Group 1 - The overly pessimistic views on China's economy are decreasing, with ING raising its 2025 GDP growth forecast from 4.5% to 4.7% [1][2] - Goldman Sachs revised its forecast for China's annual economic growth from 4.0% to 4.6%, indicating a positive adjustment from previous expectations [1][2] - Morgan Stanley and Barclays have also updated their economic outlooks for the US, with Morgan Stanley predicting a "no recession" scenario and raising China's growth forecast to 4.8% [1][2] Group 2 - The reduction of tariffs between the US and China is expected to lower the average effective tariff rate in the US from 24% to 14%, resulting in a $300 billion "tax cut effect" [1] - Morgan Stanley anticipates that the US economy will avoid slow contraction in the second half of 2025, projecting slow growth instead [1] - Barclays has shifted its outlook for the US economy, stating that a mild recession in the second half of 2025 is no longer the base case [1] Group 3 - Goldman Sachs' US stock team predicts that the reduction in tariffs will boost corporate earnings per share (EPS), raising the S&P 500 index target from 5900 to 6100 points [3] - The S&P 500 index closed at 5892 points on May 14, reflecting a 4% increase compared to before the tariff reduction announcement [3] - In China, the Shanghai Composite Index rose above 3400 points for the first time in two months, indicating a recovery in the market [3]