2026年是"十五五"开局之年，我国经济运行将打开新的增长空间。预计2026年我国将在提振消费、推动 投资止跌回稳、深入整治"内卷式"竞争、加紧培育壮大新动能等方面推出多项有力调控举措，推动经济 回升向好。 优化消费品以旧换新政策实施扩大服务消费 消费是我国经济增长的主引擎。2025年前三季度，最终消费支出对经济增长贡献率达53.5%，比2024年 全年提升9.0个百分点。 "2025年消费市场运行展现了'量增质升、结构优化'的特点。"国家发展改革委宏观经济研究院经济研究 所副所长、研究员郭丽岩说，而且我国的消费结构在优化升级。2025年1-11月份，服务零售额同比增长 5.4%，高于同期商品零售额增速1.3个百分点；网上实物零售额占比超过四分之一，说明新型即时零售 业发展较快。 步入2026年，我国将深入实施提振消费专项行动，其中消费品以旧换新政策的优化实施，将成为提振消 费的有力举措。 国家发展改革委、财政部2025年底已经发布通知，明确2026年继续实施汽车报废更新和汽车置换更新补 贴；继续实施家电以旧换新补贴，支持范围聚焦冰箱、洗衣机、电视、空调、电脑、热水器等6类产 品；同时，将数码产品购新补贴拓展 ...

Core Viewpoint - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) plans to enhance government investment and implement various measures to stabilize and promote investment in the coming year [1] Group 1: Government Investment Strategies - The NDRC will leverage "two重" construction and new local government special bonds to increase central budget investment [1] - The commission aims to implement major engineering projects as part of the "14th Five-Year Plan" and clarify investment rules [1] - There will be a focus on stimulating private investment through effective measures [1] Group 2: Economic Monitoring and Policy Implementation - The NDRC will strengthen economic monitoring and early warning analysis, improve the policy toolbox, and ensure policy continuity for the next two years [1] - The commission plans to optimize the consumption upgrade policy and remove unreasonable restrictions in the consumption sector [1] Group 3: Industry Development and Reform - The NDRC will address "involution" competition and foster new development momentum while improving capacity governance in key industries [1] - There will be a push for high-quality development in the digital economy and comprehensive deepening of reforms [1] - The commission will work on establishing a unified national market and enhance the legal framework for promoting the private economy [1]

受外部环境复杂严峻、投资收益下降等因素影响，今年前10个月，全国固定资产投资同比下降1.7%。 与此同时，我国投资结构优化，高技术行业投资较快增长。 会议提出，适当增加中央预算内投资规模，优化实施"两重"项目，优化地方政府专项债券用途管理，继 续发挥新型政策性金融工具作用。 "相关部署将更好发挥政府投资的撬动作用，进一步优化投资结构，不断释放投资活力。"国家发展改革 委宏观经济研究院研究员张林山说。 民间投资是稳增长、调结构、促就业的重要支撑力量。会议指出，有效激发民间投资活力。 投资是扩大内需的重要抓手。12月10日至11日举行的中央经济工作会议部署明年经济工作重点任务时提 出"坚持内需主导，建设强大国内市场"，并明确"推动投资止跌回稳""有效激发民间投资活力"。 会议还提出，高质量推进城市更新。"城市更新既是民生工程，更是发展工程，能够发挥拉投资、扩内 需、稳增长的重要作用。"对外经济贸易大学教授马双表示，在我国经济面临结构调整、内部需求不足 等挑战的情况下，城市更新将有效赋能经济社会高质量发展。 当前，我国新型工业化、新型城镇化、节能降碳改造等投资需求广阔，基本公共服务等民生领域投资空 间较大。落实好会 ...

受外部环境复杂严峻、投资收益下降等因素影响，今年前10个月，全国固定资产投资同比下降1.7%。 与此同时，我国投资结构优化，高技术行业投资较快增长。 新华社北京12月11日电（记者魏弘毅）投资是扩大内需的重要抓手。12月10日至11日举行的中央经济工 作会议部署明年经济工作重点任务时提出"坚持内需主导，建设强大国内市场"，并明确"推动投资止跌 回稳""有效激发民间投资活力"。 会议提出，适当增加中央预算内投资规模，优化实施"两重"项目，优化地方政府专项债券用途管理，继 续发挥新型政策性金融工具作用。 "相关部署将更好发挥政府投资的撬动作用，进一步优化投资结构，不断释放投资活力。"国家发展改革 委宏观经济研究院研究员张林山说。 民间投资是稳增长、调结构、促就业的重要支撑力量。会议指出，有效激发民间投资活力。 "落实好会议部署，各地要从扩大准入、打通堵点、强化保障等方面精准发力，持续拓宽民间投资空 间，为民间投资营造稳定、可预期的制度环境，让民营企业愿投、能投、安心投。"张林山说。 会议还提出，高质量推进城市更新。"城市更新既是民生工程，更是发展工程，能够发挥拉投资、扩内 需、稳增长的重要作用。"对外经济贸易大学 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report On Monday, the HC2601 contract decreased with a reduction in positions. Macroscopically, the EU plans to impose a 25%-50% tariff on Chinese steel and related products. In terms of supply and demand, the weekly output of hot-rolled coils slightly decreased but remained at a high level, with a capacity utilization rate of 82.81%. Demand was relatively stable, and there were little changes in inventory and apparent demand. Overall, the spot market lacked momentum approaching the holiday, and the EU's plan to impose tariffs on Chinese steel dampened market confidence and pressured steel prices. Technically, the 1-hour MACD indicator of the HC2601 contract showed that both DIFF and DEA were weakening downward. The operation strategy was to expect a fluctuating and bearish trend and hold a light position during the holiday [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the HC main contract was 3,289 yuan/ton, a decrease of 24 yuan, and the position volume was 1,384,470 lots, a decrease of 6,738 lots. - The net position of the top 20 in the HC contract was -60,643 lots, an increase of 14,911 lots, and the HC1 - 5 contract spread was -9 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2 yuan. - The HC warehouse receipt report from the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 46,314 tons, with no change, and the HC2601 - RB2601 contract spread was 192 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7 yuan [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 4.75 hot-rolled coils in Hangzhou was 3,380 yuan/ton, with no change; in Guangzhou, it was 3,320 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan; in Wuhan, it was 3,400 yuan/ton, with no change; and in Tianjin, it was 3,290 yuan/ton, with no change. - The basis of the HC main contract was 91 yuan/ton, an increase of 24 yuan, and the price difference between hot-rolled coils and rebar in Hangzhou was 90 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB iron ore fines at Qingdao Port was 779 yuan/wet ton, a decrease of 4 yuan, and the price of quasi-first-class metallurgical coke in Hebei was 1,490 yuan/ton, with no change. - The price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan (excluding tax) was 2,250 yuan/ton, with no change, and the price of Q235 billet in Hebei was 2,970 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan. - The inventory of iron ore at 45 ports was 139.9735 million tons, an increase of 1.9313 million tons; the coke inventory of sample coking plants was 392,900 tons, a decrease of 29,200 tons; the coke inventory of sample steel mills was 6.6138 million tons, an increase of 164,800 tons; and the billet inventory in Hebei was 1.225 million tons, an increase of 7,700 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 84.47%, an increase of 0.47%, and the blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 90.88%, an increase of 0.50%. - The weekly output of hot-rolled coils of sample steel mills was 3.2419 million tons, a decrease of 23,000 tons, and the capacity utilization rate of hot-rolled coils was 82.81%, a decrease of 0.59%. - The hot-rolled coil inventory of sample steel mills was 817,000 tons, an increase of 4,000 tons, and the social inventory of hot-rolled coils in 33 cities was 2.988 million tons, an increase of 21,100 tons. - The monthly output of domestic crude steel was 7.737 million tons, a decrease of 229,000 tons, and the net export volume of steel was 901,000 tons, a decrease of 38,000 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of automobiles was 2.8154 million vehicles, an increase of 224,300 vehicles, and the monthly sales volume was 2.8566 million vehicles, an increase of 263,200 vehicles. - The monthly output of air conditioners was 16.8188 million units, a decrease of 3.7777 million units; the output of household refrigerators was 9.4532 million units, an increase of 722,500 units; and the output of household washing machines was 10.1318 million units, an increase of 1.3575 million units [2]. 3.6 Industry News - The Director of the National Development and Reform Commission, Zheng Shanjie, hosted a symposium to solicit opinions and suggestions from private enterprises on expanding effective investment during the 15th Five-Year Plan period. The National Development and Reform Commission will implement a series of practical measures in areas such as expanding access, removing bottlenecks, and strengthening safeguards, and strengthen the coordination of industrial, investment, fiscal, and financial policies to further stimulate the vitality of private investment and promote its development. - The Jiangsu Provincial Department of Commerce adjusted the policy on replacing old cars with new ones. The subsidy policy for car replacement was suspended at 24:00 on September 28, 2025 [2].

Core Viewpoint - The economic development in China during the first half of the year exceeded expectations, with a GDP growth rate of 5.3%. However, structural issues remain severe, indicating potential uncertainties ahead [2][3]. Group 1: Economic Growth and Structural Issues - The GDP growth rate of 5.3% in the first half of the year reflects a stronger-than-expected economic performance, but structural problems are still significant, as indicated by data from June [2][3]. - Investment remains crucial for stabilizing growth, as evidenced by the data from the first half of the year [7]. Group 2: Consumer Demand and Policy Measures - Expanding consumer demand is a strategic priority for China, which requires systemic adjustments rather than short-term stimulus measures. Key areas include ensuring residents' income, asset balance, and social security systems [5]. - Various policies have been introduced to support consumer spending, including subsidies for education and services for vulnerable groups, which are expected to continue in the second half of the year [6]. Group 3: Investment and Market Dynamics - The slowdown in real estate and private investment growth in June poses a significant challenge for the second half of the year. To counter this, measures to stimulate private investment and improve expected returns are being implemented [7]. - The government is focusing on enhancing the space for private investment and ensuring that the expected returns for private enterprises are safeguarded through fiscal and monetary policies [7]. Group 4: Market Competition and Innovation - The phenomenon of many companies not being profitable despite advancements in technology and industry upgrades highlights the need to address disordered competition and market chaos. This requires actions to ensure effective competition and sustainable profitability for enterprises [8]. - The initiative to combat "involution" is essential for optimizing market order and addressing the macroeconomic issues of low price levels and supply-demand imbalances [8]. Group 5: Foreign Trade and Investment Stability - The political bureau meeting emphasized the need to stabilize foreign trade and investment, acknowledging the changing landscape of international trade, particularly concerning U.S. tariff negotiations [9][10]. - The emergence of "black swan" events and extreme situations necessitates preemptive measures to mitigate potential impacts on foreign trade [11]. Group 6: Consumption Policies and Future Expectations - The "old-for-new" program has a total budget of 300 billion yuan, with over half already implemented in the first half of the year. The remaining budget is expected to expand in scope and variety, including new consumer goods and services [12]. - Future policies will focus on enhancing consumer potential and ensuring that consumption support measures are effective in the medium term [12]. Group 7: Risk Management and Urban Development - The emphasis on high-quality urban renewal indicates a shift in policy focus to address changing risk dynamics, particularly in the real estate sector, which is moving towards a new development model [13]. - The adjustment of real estate policies aims to reduce risks and promote stability in the market, reflecting a proactive approach to managing economic challenges [13].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the need for China to focus on economic growth strategies for the second half of the year, following a better-than-expected performance in the first half [1] - The international environment has shown some improvement since April, with progress in trade negotiations, but complexities and challenges remain for the second half [2][4] - Domestic economic growth reached 5.3% in the first half, but structural issues persist, indicating potential uncertainties ahead [4] Group 2 - Expanding consumer demand is a strategic priority for China, requiring systemic adjustments rather than short-term stimulus measures [5] - Policies aimed at improving education support and social security for vulnerable groups are expected to continue in the second half, enhancing consumer spending [7] - Investment remains crucial for stabilizing growth, with a focus on revitalizing private investment and addressing the slowdown in real estate and private sector investment [9] Group 3 - The need to address disordered competition among enterprises is highlighted, as many companies are currently unprofitable despite advancements in technology and industry upgrades [11] - The emphasis on stabilizing foreign trade and foreign investment reflects changes in the external trade environment, particularly regarding US-China trade negotiations [12][13] - The "old-for-new" policy has a budget of 300 billion yuan, with expectations for continued expansion in the second half, focusing on new consumer goods and services [15] Group 4 - The focus on high-quality urban renewal indicates a shift in policy to address changing risk dynamics in the real estate sector, aiming to stabilize the market and reduce risks [15]

Group 1 - The theme of this year's research conducted by the All-China Federation of Industry and Commerce is "Stimulating Private Investment Vitality and Expanding Domestic Effective Demand" [1] - The research team visited representative enterprises, key parks, and service institutions related to venture capital and equity investment during their field research in Tianjin and Shanxi [1]