Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report On Monday, the HC2601 contract decreased with a reduction in positions. Macroscopically, the EU plans to impose a 25%-50% tariff on Chinese steel and related products. In terms of supply and demand, the weekly output of hot-rolled coils slightly decreased but remained at a high level, with a capacity utilization rate of 82.81%. Demand was relatively stable, and there were little changes in inventory and apparent demand. Overall, the spot market lacked momentum approaching the holiday, and the EU's plan to impose tariffs on Chinese steel dampened market confidence and pressured steel prices. Technically, the 1-hour MACD indicator of the HC2601 contract showed that both DIFF and DEA were weakening downward. The operation strategy was to expect a fluctuating and bearish trend and hold a light position during the holiday [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the HC main contract was 3,289 yuan/ton, a decrease of 24 yuan, and the position volume was 1,384,470 lots, a decrease of 6,738 lots. - The net position of the top 20 in the HC contract was -60,643 lots, an increase of 14,911 lots, and the HC1 - 5 contract spread was -9 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2 yuan. - The HC warehouse receipt report from the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 46,314 tons, with no change, and the HC2601 - RB2601 contract spread was 192 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7 yuan [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 4.75 hot-rolled coils in Hangzhou was 3,380 yuan/ton, with no change; in Guangzhou, it was 3,320 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan; in Wuhan, it was 3,400 yuan/ton, with no change; and in Tianjin, it was 3,290 yuan/ton, with no change. - The basis of the HC main contract was 91 yuan/ton, an increase of 24 yuan, and the price difference between hot-rolled coils and rebar in Hangzhou was 90 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB iron ore fines at Qingdao Port was 779 yuan/wet ton, a decrease of 4 yuan, and the price of quasi-first-class metallurgical coke in Hebei was 1,490 yuan/ton, with no change. - The price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan (excluding tax) was 2,250 yuan/ton, with no change, and the price of Q235 billet in Hebei was 2,970 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan. - The inventory of iron ore at 45 ports was 139.9735 million tons, an increase of 1.9313 million tons; the coke inventory of sample coking plants was 392,900 tons, a decrease of 29,200 tons; the coke inventory of sample steel mills was 6.6138 million tons, an increase of 164,800 tons; and the billet inventory in Hebei was 1.225 million tons, an increase of 7,700 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 84.47%, an increase of 0.47%, and the blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 90.88%, an increase of 0.50%. - The weekly output of hot-rolled coils of sample steel mills was 3.2419 million tons, a decrease of 23,000 tons, and the capacity utilization rate of hot-rolled coils was 82.81%, a decrease of 0.59%. - The hot-rolled coil inventory of sample steel mills was 817,000 tons, an increase of 4,000 tons, and the social inventory of hot-rolled coils in 33 cities was 2.988 million tons, an increase of 21,100 tons. - The monthly output of domestic crude steel was 7.737 million tons, a decrease of 229,000 tons, and the net export volume of steel was 901,000 tons, a decrease of 38,000 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of automobiles was 2.8154 million vehicles, an increase of 224,300 vehicles, and the monthly sales volume was 2.8566 million vehicles, an increase of 263,200 vehicles. - The monthly output of air conditioners was 16.8188 million units, a decrease of 3.7777 million units; the output of household refrigerators was 9.4532 million units, an increase of 722,500 units; and the output of household washing machines was 10.1318 million units, an increase of 1.3575 million units [2]. 3.6 Industry News - The Director of the National Development and Reform Commission, Zheng Shanjie, hosted a symposium to solicit opinions and suggestions from private enterprises on expanding effective investment during the 15th Five-Year Plan period. The National Development and Reform Commission will implement a series of practical measures in areas such as expanding access, removing bottlenecks, and strengthening safeguards, and strengthen the coordination of industrial, investment, fiscal, and financial policies to further stimulate the vitality of private investment and promote its development. - The Jiangsu Provincial Department of Commerce adjusted the policy on replacing old cars with new ones. The subsidy policy for car replacement was suspended at 24:00 on September 28, 2025 [2].

Core Viewpoint - The economic development in China during the first half of the year exceeded expectations, with a GDP growth rate of 5.3%. However, structural issues remain severe, indicating potential uncertainties ahead [2][3]. Group 1: Economic Growth and Structural Issues - The GDP growth rate of 5.3% in the first half of the year reflects a stronger-than-expected economic performance, but structural problems are still significant, as indicated by data from June [2][3]. - Investment remains crucial for stabilizing growth, as evidenced by the data from the first half of the year [7]. Group 2: Consumer Demand and Policy Measures - Expanding consumer demand is a strategic priority for China, which requires systemic adjustments rather than short-term stimulus measures. Key areas include ensuring residents' income, asset balance, and social security systems [5]. - Various policies have been introduced to support consumer spending, including subsidies for education and services for vulnerable groups, which are expected to continue in the second half of the year [6]. Group 3: Investment and Market Dynamics - The slowdown in real estate and private investment growth in June poses a significant challenge for the second half of the year. To counter this, measures to stimulate private investment and improve expected returns are being implemented [7]. - The government is focusing on enhancing the space for private investment and ensuring that the expected returns for private enterprises are safeguarded through fiscal and monetary policies [7]. Group 4: Market Competition and Innovation - The phenomenon of many companies not being profitable despite advancements in technology and industry upgrades highlights the need to address disordered competition and market chaos. This requires actions to ensure effective competition and sustainable profitability for enterprises [8]. - The initiative to combat "involution" is essential for optimizing market order and addressing the macroeconomic issues of low price levels and supply-demand imbalances [8]. Group 5: Foreign Trade and Investment Stability - The political bureau meeting emphasized the need to stabilize foreign trade and investment, acknowledging the changing landscape of international trade, particularly concerning U.S. tariff negotiations [9][10]. - The emergence of "black swan" events and extreme situations necessitates preemptive measures to mitigate potential impacts on foreign trade [11]. Group 6: Consumption Policies and Future Expectations - The "old-for-new" program has a total budget of 300 billion yuan, with over half already implemented in the first half of the year. The remaining budget is expected to expand in scope and variety, including new consumer goods and services [12]. - Future policies will focus on enhancing consumer potential and ensuring that consumption support measures are effective in the medium term [12]. Group 7: Risk Management and Urban Development - The emphasis on high-quality urban renewal indicates a shift in policy focus to address changing risk dynamics, particularly in the real estate sector, which is moving towards a new development model [13]. - The adjustment of real estate policies aims to reduce risks and promote stability in the market, reflecting a proactive approach to managing economic challenges [13].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the need for China to focus on economic growth strategies for the second half of the year, following a better-than-expected performance in the first half [1] - The international environment has shown some improvement since April, with progress in trade negotiations, but complexities and challenges remain for the second half [2][4] - Domestic economic growth reached 5.3% in the first half, but structural issues persist, indicating potential uncertainties ahead [4] Group 2 - Expanding consumer demand is a strategic priority for China, requiring systemic adjustments rather than short-term stimulus measures [5] - Policies aimed at improving education support and social security for vulnerable groups are expected to continue in the second half, enhancing consumer spending [7] - Investment remains crucial for stabilizing growth, with a focus on revitalizing private investment and addressing the slowdown in real estate and private sector investment [9] Group 3 - The need to address disordered competition among enterprises is highlighted, as many companies are currently unprofitable despite advancements in technology and industry upgrades [11] - The emphasis on stabilizing foreign trade and foreign investment reflects changes in the external trade environment, particularly regarding US-China trade negotiations [12][13] - The "old-for-new" policy has a budget of 300 billion yuan, with expectations for continued expansion in the second half, focusing on new consumer goods and services [15] Group 4 - The focus on high-quality urban renewal indicates a shift in policy to address changing risk dynamics in the real estate sector, aiming to stabilize the market and reduce risks [15]

Group 1 - The theme of this year's research conducted by the All-China Federation of Industry and Commerce is "Stimulating Private Investment Vitality and Expanding Domestic Effective Demand" [1] - The research team visited representative enterprises, key parks, and service institutions related to venture capital and equity investment during their field research in Tianjin and Shanxi [1]