1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The coking coal futures price is expected to fluctuate widely. High oil prices strengthen the substitution of coal chemical industry, and the expectation of downstream demand recovery supports the futures price. Recently, the market sentiment fluctuates [2]. - The coke futures price is also expected to fluctuate widely. The profitability of coke enterprises is weak, which restricts the enthusiasm for starting work. There is an expectation of downstream demand recovery, and the industry fundamentals are marginally improved. Recently, the market sentiment fluctuates more [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of JM main contract is 1,249.50 yuan/ton, down 40.00 yuan; the closing price of J main contract is 1,798.00 yuan/ton, down 49.00 yuan [2]. - The trading volume of JM futures contract is 647,897.00 lots, down 41,079.00 lots; the trading volume of J futures contract is 47,890.00 lots, down 1,411.00 lots [2]. - The net position of the top 20 contracts of coking coal is -63,166.00 lots, down 15,966.00 lots; the net position of the top 20 contracts of coke is -4,186.00 lots, up 1,179.00 lots [2]. - The price difference between JM9 - 5 contracts is 122.00 yuan/ton, up 33.00 yuan; the price difference between J9 - 5 contracts is 75.50 yuan/ton, up 7.50 yuan [2]. - The coking coal warehouse receipt is 0.00 pieces, unchanged; the coke warehouse receipt is 1,060.00 pieces, unchanged [2]. Spot Market - The price of Ganqimao Du Meng 5 raw coal is 1,165.00 yuan/ton, up 51.00 yuan; the price of Tangshan Grade 1 metallurgical coke is 1,665.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The forward spot price of Russian main coking coal (CFR) is 170.00 US dollars/wet ton, up 2.50 US dollars; the price of Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke is 1,470.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of imported main coking coal from Australia at Jingtang Port is 1,630.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Grade 1 metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port is 1,570.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of main coking coal produced in Shanxi at Jingtang Port is 1,600.00 yuan/ton, up 10.00 yuan; the price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port is 1,470.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of medium - sulfur main coking coal in Lingshi, Jinzhong, Shanxi is 1,406.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of J main contract is - 133.00 yuan/ton, up 49.00 yuan [2]. - The ex - factory price of coking coal produced in Wuhai, Inner Mongolia is 1,280.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of JM main contract is 100.50 yuan/ton, up 40.00 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The daily output of clean coal from 314 independent coal washing plants is 24.31 million tons, up 1.21 million tons; the weekly inventory of clean coal from 314 independent coal washing plants is 332.51 million tons, up 18.91 million tons [2]. - The weekly capacity utilization rate of 314 independent coal washing plants is 33.01%, up 2.01 percentage points; the monthly output of raw coal is 43,703.50 million tons, up 1,024.20 million tons [2]. - The monthly import volume of coal and lignite is 3,094.00 million tons, down 1,534.00 million tons; the daily average output of raw coal from 523 coking coal mines is 196.90 million tons, up 3.30 million tons [2]. - The weekly inventory of imported coking coal at 16 ports is 481.03 million tons, down 8.15 million tons; the weekly inventory of coking coal in all - sample independent coking enterprises is 1,005.03 million tons, up 35.60 million tons [2]. - The weekly inventory of coking coal in 247 steel mills across the country is 773.93 million tons, down 3.70 million tons; the weekly inventory of coke in 247 sample steel mills is 688.18 million tons, up 0.63 million tons [2]. Industry Situation - The weekly available days of coking coal in all - sample independent coking enterprises is 12.30 days, down 0.14 days; the weekly available days of coke in 247 sample steel mills is 12.74 days, down 0.43 days [2]. - The monthly import volume of coking coal is 806.97 million tons, down 368.74 million tons; the monthly export volume of coke and semi - coke is 59.00 million tons, down 25.00 million tons [2]. - The monthly total supply of coking coal is 5,478.50 million tons, up 238.97 million tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises is 74.31%, up 0.40 percentage points [2]. - The weekly profit per ton of coke in independent coking plants is 38.00 yuan/ton, up 41.00 yuan/ton; the monthly output of coke is 0.00 million tons, unchanged [2]. Downstream Situation - The weekly blast furnace start - up rate of 247 steel mills across the country is 79.78%, up 1.44 percentage points; the weekly blast furnace ironmaking capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills is 85.53%, up 2.61 percentage points [2]. - The monthly output of crude steel is 6,817.74 million tons, down 169.36 million tons [2]. Industry News - According to CCTV International News, Iran's new Supreme Leader's military advisor Muhsin Rezaei emphasized in an interview on March 23 that Iran will not stop the war until it gets all the compensation, all economic sanctions are lifted, and it gets international legal guarantees that the US will not interfere in Iran's affairs [2]. - Goldman Sachs said that due to the soaring oil and gas prices, the probability of the US economy falling into recession in the next 12 months has risen to 30%, 5 percentage points higher than the previous forecast [2]. Key Points of Attention - Pay attention to the implementation of the coke price increase [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The coking coal futures price is expected to fluctuate strongly. Downstream steel inventory has shown an inflection point, demand has recovered, and geopolitical factors have pushed up oil prices, strengthening the substitution of coal chemical industry [2]. - The coke futures price may fluctuate upward. Coke enterprises' profits are at the break - even point, which may suppress production, but downstream demand has an expectation of recovery, and the short - term cost has been rising [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - JM main contract closing price: 1289.50 yuan/ton, up 118.50 yuan; J main contract closing price: 1847.00 yuan/ton, up 106.50 yuan [2]. - JM futures contract holding volume: 688976.00 hands, up 98117.00 hands; J futures contract holding volume: 49301.00 hands, up 8393.00 hands [2]. - Net holding of the top 20 coking coal contracts: - 47200.00 hands, up 13689.00 hands; Net holding of the top 20 coke contracts: - 5365.00 hands, down 1817.00 hands [2]. - JM 9 - 5 month contract spread: 89.00 yuan/ton, down 27.00 yuan; J 9 - 5 month contract spread: 68.00 yuan/ton, down 7.00 yuan [2]. - Coking coal warehouse receipts: 0.00; Coke warehouse receipts: 1060.00 [2]. - JM main contract basis: 60.50 yuan/ton, down 118.50 yuan; J main contract basis: - 182.00 yuan/ton, down 106.50 yuan [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Dry Qimeng 5 raw coal: 1114.00 yuan/ton, up 34.00 yuan; Tangshan first - class metallurgical coke: 1665.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Russian main coking coal forward spot: 167.50 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged; Rizhao Port quasi - first - class metallurgical coke: 1470.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Jingtang Port Australian imported main coking coal: 1630.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; Tianjin Port first - class metallurgical coke: 1570.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Jingtang Port Shanxi - produced main coking coal: 1600.00 yuan/ton, up 10.00 yuan; Tianjin Port quasi - first - class metallurgical coke: 1470.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Shanxi Jinzhong Lingshi medium - sulfur main coking coal: 1406.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; Inner Mongolia Wuhai - produced coking coal ex - factory price: 1280.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The refined coal output of 314 independent coal washing plants: 24.31 million tons, up 1.21 million tons; The refined coal inventory of 314 independent coal washing plants: 332.51 million tons, up 18.91 million tons [2]. - The capacity utilization rate of 314 independent coal washing plants: 33.01%, up 2.01%; Raw coal output: 43703.50 million tons, up 1024.20 million tons [2]. - Coal and lignite imports: 3094.00 million tons, down 1534.00 million tons; The inventory of imported coking coal in 16 ports: 481.03 million tons, down 8.15 million tons [2]. - The total inventory of coking coal in all - sample independent coking enterprises: 1005.03 million tons, up 35.60 million tons; The total inventory of coke in all - sample independent coking enterprises: 94.23 million tons, down 6.20 million tons [2]. - The coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills in the country: 773.93 million tons, down 3.70 million tons; The coke inventory of 247 sample steel mills in the country: 688.18 million tons, up 0.63 million tons [2]. - The available days of coking coal in all - sample independent coking enterprises: 12.30 days, down 0.14 days; The available days of coke in 247 sample steel mills: 12.74 days, down 0.43 days [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Coking coal imports: 806.97 million tons, down 368.74 million tons; Coke and semi - coke exports: 59.00 million tons, down 25.00 million tons [2]. - Total coking coal supply: 5478.50 million tons, up 238.97 million tons; The capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises: 74.31%, up 0.40% [2]. - The profit per ton of coke in independent coking plants: 38.00 yuan/ton, up 41.00 yuan; Coke output: 0.00 million tons, unchanged [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The blast furnace start - up rate of 247 steel mills in the country: 79.78%, up 1.44%; The blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills: 85.53%, up 2.61% [2]. - Crude steel output: 6817.74 million tons, down 169.36 million tons [2]. 3.6 Industry News - On March 20, some coking enterprises in Inner Mongolia initiated the first round of price increase for coke. The price of wet - quenched coke increased by 50 yuan/ton, and the price of dry - quenched coke increased by 55 yuan/ton, effective from 0:00 on March 23 [2]. - On March 21, US President Trump threatened to attack Iranian power plants if Iran did not open the Strait of Hormuz. Iran's speaker responded that if Iran's infrastructure was attacked, the energy and oil facilities in the Middle East would be targeted, and oil prices would rise in the long - term [2]. - On March 23, the domestic refined oil price adjustment window opened, and it was expected to achieve a "five - consecutive increase" and set a new high for the year [2].

Core Viewpoint - The recent geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East are impacting global oil and gas supply chains, affecting both the cost and supply of domestic chemical products [1] Group 1: Oil and Gas Market Dynamics - The blockage of the Strait of Hormuz is expected to gradually reflect changes in the long-term expectations of upstream oil and gas companies, with potential oil prices rising to $75, $80, or $85 per barrel under different scenarios [2][8] - Current market expectations imply an oil price of $70 per barrel, but due to supply disruptions, there is a risk of upward adjustments in oil asset valuations [6][8] - The international LNG spot prices have surged over 70% since the onset of the conflict, with Qatar's LNG supply disruptions significantly affecting global supply-demand dynamics [10][9] Group 2: Fertilizer and Chemical Prices - Overseas urea prices have risen sharply due to reduced supply and increased natural gas prices, with the Middle East contributing significantly to global urea production [20][21] - Domestic urea production is secure, with China being a net exporter, and companies with export quotas are expected to benefit from high overseas prices [21][31] - Phosphate fertilizer production costs are rising due to increased sulfur prices, which are expected to enhance the profitability of companies with sulfur resources [26][31] Group 3: Coal Chemical Supply Chain Advantages - The geopolitical tensions have led to a significant increase in oil and refined product prices, benefiting coal-based chemical production routes due to the widening oil-coal price gap [3][32] - The cost advantages for coal-based production routes are expected to expand as oil prices rise, while the profitability of traditional oil-based routes is under pressure [41][40] Group 4: Impact on Specific Chemical Products - The conflict has disrupted the supply of methanol and ethylene, with the domestic market facing potential supply risks due to reliance on Middle Eastern imports [33][43] - PVC production using ethylene is likely to be affected, while the electric stone method for PVC production may fill the supply gap due to its relative stability against rising oil prices [47][49][50]

Summary of Coal Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the coal industry, particularly the dynamics of thermal coal and coking coal markets in China as of early 2026 [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10][11]. Key Points and Arguments Thermal Coal Market - In late March 2026, thermal coal prices at ports reached a bottom of 720-730 RMB/ton, which is a month earlier than usual and at a higher level compared to previous years [1][3]. - The increase in prices is attributed to traders' active stockpiling and strong demand from the coal chemical sector [1][3]. - Power plants are currently in a passive destocking phase, with short-term procurement being weak. However, a significant reduction in imports is expected due to decreased export quotas from Indonesia and price inversions in overseas coal [1][2][3]. - A potential increase in procurement activities from southern power plants around mid-April is anticipated to drive coal prices higher [1][3]. Coking Coal Market - As of March 22, 2026, coking coal prices have shown an upward trend, with Shanxi's main coking coal price rising to 1,600 RMB/ton and Australian coking coal increasing to 247 USD/ton [4]. - The rise in coking coal prices is driven by improved profitability in coking enterprises due to high oil and gas prices, which enhance the profitability of by-products [4][11]. - Despite weak demand from the steel industry, the high operating rates of coking plants are expected to sustain demand for coking coal [4]. Production and Demand Trends - In January-February 2026, China's raw coal production was 763 million tons, a slight decrease of 0.3% year-on-year, indicating tight supply due to stricter safety regulations [5][6]. - Electricity generation from thermal power plants increased by 3.3% year-on-year, reversing a decline from the previous year, supported by low base effects and increased electricity demand from AI developments [5][6]. - The steel production decreased by 2.7%, while cement production increased by 6.8% due to favorable working days [5][6]. Potential Demand from Coal Chemical Sector - The high oil and gas prices are leading to significant demand for coal as a substitute in the chemical sector. If coal chemical operations increase their utilization rates, there could be an additional demand for nearly 100 million tons of coal [7][8]. - The potential demand from reducing non-coal chemical routes could lead to an increase of over 600 million tons of coal consumption globally [8]. Investment Opportunities - Recommended investment targets include Yancoal Australia and Yanzhou Coal Mining Company for high elasticity, as well as integrated coal and chemical companies like China Coal Energy and Guohui Energy [2][11]. - Focus on coking coal companies such as Huabei Mining and Mongolian Coking Coal, which are expected to benefit from improved profitability in the coking sector [11]. Market Outlook - The coal market is expected to remain tight, with geopolitical factors influencing energy prices. The sustainability of coal's demand as a substitute for oil and gas is likely to continue, especially if oil prices stabilize in the 80-90 USD range [9][10]. - The coal sector is projected to perform well, driven by multiple factors including supply constraints and enhanced demand from the coal chemical industry [9][10]. Additional Important Insights - The current market dynamics are reminiscent of the post-Ukraine conflict period, where coal performed well amid tight supply conditions [10]. - The focus on coal chemical projects is expected to be a significant part of the "14th Five-Year Plan," indicating a strategic direction for the industry [9].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The records discuss the energy sector, particularly focusing on oil and coal markets amid geopolitical tensions, specifically the Strait conflict and its implications on supply and pricing dynamics [1][2][4]. Core Insights and Arguments - The initial supply gap due to the Strait conflict is estimated at **20 million barrels per day**, with a theoretical gap remaining at **10 million barrels per day** even after considering pipeline ramp-up and strategic reserve releases [1][2]. - The oil price equilibrium is expected to shift to **$80 per barrel** by **2026**, earlier than previously anticipated due to mid-term supply losses and increased demand from strategic reserve replenishment [1][3]. - The Asia-Pacific region faces a severe lack of oil substitutes, with coal chemical alternatives only providing **200,000 to 300,000 barrels per day**. If the blockade continues, oil prices may need to rise to **$120-$140 per barrel** to suppress consumption by **3% annually** for market rebalancing [1][4]. - Qatar's LNG supply disruptions are projected to increase coal demand by over **70 million tons**, with a theoretical need for **220 million tons** of coal if global supply is completely halted [1][8]. Additional Important Insights - Domestic coal prices are currently supported by supply guarantee policies, but are expected to rise from **680 RMB/ton** to **800 RMB/ton** by **2026**, with potential peaks reaching **900-950 RMB/ton** [1][9]. - The current energy crisis differs significantly from the Russia-Ukraine war, primarily in the types of energy affected and the markets impacted. The current crisis directly impacts oil, followed by natural gas and coal, while the previous crisis primarily affected natural gas [4][5]. - If U.S. military actions in the Strait face challenges, it could lead to a shift in the oil pricing system, potentially benefiting Chinese refining companies by allowing them to acquire non-dollar priced oil at lower costs [5][10]. - The coal market is experiencing a tightening supply situation, with domestic coal effectively compensating for reduced imports, stabilizing domestic prices despite rising international coal prices [9][10]. Investment Opportunities - The main investment themes focus on energy security and alternative routes, with a positive outlook on companies like **CNOOC H** and **Yankuang Energy H**, which are expected to see valuation shifts from dividend yields to PE ratios [2][10]. - Coal chemical companies, such as **Baofeng Energy** and **Satellite Chemical**, are highlighted for their strategic importance in energy security and potential EPS growth due to rising product prices [10].