阿里之后，谁能扶起这家曾经的超市之王？ 每日资本论（摄） 文/每日资本论 "超市之王"又要被卖了。 近日，多家媒体报道称，知名商超大润发的母公司高鑫零售有限公司（下称，高鑫零售）以执行董事兼CEO沈辉名义发出公告，表示9月27日上午起在港交 所短暂停牌，以待根据公司收购及合并守则发出载有本公司内幕消息之公告。 这意味着，潜在投资人或投资机构可能会向所有股东发出收购其股份的要约。 1、 关于大润发的"绯闻"近来不断。去年，大润发就开始传闻将被阿里巴巴出售，后被辟谣。今年3月，又传闻中粮集团将以100亿元收购大润发，后者辟谣。还 有传闻收购者是KKR集团，一家老牌的杠杆收购天王，擅长产业投资。高瓴资本被认为是目前最有可能收购大润发的潜在买家，而且有传言称，高瓴资本 可能会与润泰联手进行此次收购。 大润发的出售与业绩大幅下滑关系密切。2024财年（2023年4月1日至2024年3月31日），高鑫零售实现营收725.67亿元，同比减少13.3%；净利润巨亏16.68 亿元，同比下降1572.48%。 这是高鑫零售自2011年上市以来最大规模的亏损，主要受到负现金流门店和关闭门店及拟关闭门店的使用权资产及固定资产减值、 ...

Core Insights - The retail industry is experiencing a significant wave of store closures, with at least 17,100 physical stores shutting down in the first half of 2025, including nearly 10,000 in the restaurant sector and over 4,500 in clothing [3][5] - The trend of store closures is particularly pronounced in smaller cities, where many entrepreneurs are unable to sustain their businesses for even a year [5][12] - The rise of e-commerce has drastically altered consumer shopping habits, leading to a decline in foot traffic for physical stores, despite attempts to attract customers through discounts and promotions [6][8] Group 1: Store Closures - A specific jewelry brand closed 905 stores in 2025, averaging 2.5 closures per day, while another brand closed 74 stores in the first half of the year, with the most significant losses occurring in third- and fourth-tier cities [1][3] - Many businesses are quickly putting up "for rent" signs after only a few months of operation, reflecting the harsh reality of the retail environment [3][5] Group 2: E-commerce Impact - E-commerce has fundamentally changed shopping behaviors, with consumers increasingly opting for online purchases, leading to a significant drop in physical store traffic [6][8] - The convenience of online shopping, coupled with competitive pricing, has made it difficult for physical stores to retain customers [14][16] Group 3: Economic Factors - High rental costs are a major factor contributing to store closures, with landlords often increasing rents despite declining sales [19][21] - The economic downturn has led to reduced consumer spending, as individuals are burdened with housing and car loans, making them hesitant to spend on non-essential items [28][29] Group 4: Demographic Changes - The population decline in China, with a drop to approximately 1.408 billion in 2024, has resulted in fewer consumers, making it increasingly difficult for businesses to thrive [22][24] - The aging population and the migration of younger generations to urban areas further exacerbate the challenges faced by physical retailers in smaller towns [26]

Core Points - Triumph Group will cease operations in mainland China by December 31, 2025, as announced on November 21, 2023 [1] - The cessation of services includes stopping after-sales support on various online platforms by December 5, 2025, and the closure of physical stores by December 31, 2025 [1] Company Analysis - Triumph is a well-known German lingerie brand established in 1886, facing intense competition from rising domestic brands in the Chinese market [2] - The Chinese lingerie market is projected to reach a size of 223.7 billion yuan in 2024, with domestic brands surpassing foreign brands in market share [2] - Triumph's products are priced above 200 yuan, with some nearing 1,000 yuan, making them less competitive in terms of pricing [2] - The brand's product offerings are perceived as outdated compared to rapidly evolving new products like seamless and wireless lingerie [2] - Increasing sales through e-commerce platforms have negatively impacted Triumph's physical store sales, compounded by high rental and labor costs [2]

Core Insights - The decline of large shopping malls in China is evident, with notable closures such as the Pacific Department Store in Shanghai and the Wuhan Wushang Yamao Plaza, indicating a broader trend of diminishing foot traffic and consumer interest [1][3][5]. Group 1: Decline of Shopping Malls - The closure of the Wushang Yamao Plaza, which operated for 28 years, highlights a significant issue: a lack of customers, a trend reflected in the closure of 21 large malls nationwide last year [5][11]. - Nationwide average daily foot traffic in shopping centers has plummeted from 47,000 in 2015 to 20,000 in 2023, showcasing a stark decline in consumer engagement [7]. - The oversaturation of shopping malls is evident, with some second and third-tier cities having per capita shopping center space exceeding 2 square meters, which is double that of Japan and South Korea [13]. Group 2: Market Saturation and Competition - The oversupply of shopping malls has led to intense competition, with the Wushang Yamao Plaza surrounded by eight other large shopping centers within a 3-kilometer radius, resulting in a total commercial area exceeding 1.2 million square meters [15]. - A report indicates that the vacancy rate in the industry could reach 9.1% by 2024, surpassing the recognized breakeven point of 5% [17]. Group 3: Impact of E-commerce - The rise of e-commerce has significantly impacted physical retail, with rental costs in Shanghai's Wujiaochang area increasing from 8 yuan per square meter in 2015 to 22 yuan in 2024, a 175% increase [19]. - The average annual labor cost for a retail employee in first-tier cities exceeds 100,000 yuan, which contributes to higher prices for goods in physical stores compared to online alternatives [20]. - Consumers increasingly prefer online shopping for its lower prices and convenience, often using physical stores merely as "free fitting rooms" before purchasing online [22]. Group 4: Strategies for Survival - To survive, shopping malls must create unique experiences rather than just selling products. Successful models like Sam's Club focus on exclusivity rather than low prices, attracting nearly 9 million paying members [25][27]. - The success of stores like Pang Dong Lai is attributed to exceptional service, offering over 60 free value-added services, which enhances customer loyalty and experience [29][31]. - Local cultural engagement, as seen in Tai Sheng Plaza in Linyi, demonstrates a successful strategy of hosting local events to become a community hub rather than just a shopping destination [34]. Group 5: Challenges in Transformation - Many malls mistakenly believe that increasing the proportion of dining options will save them, but this approach is often ineffective as the restaurant industry is highly competitive, with 460,000 restaurants closing or being deregistered in the first quarter of this year [36].

Core Insights - The current business environment for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) is challenging, with complaints from business owners about increasing difficulties in operations [1] - The first quarter of 2025 saw a mere 2.3% year-on-year growth in the national catering industry, marking the lowest growth rate in five years [1] - Offline retail traffic has decreased by approximately 21% compared to the same period in 2019, indicating a significant decline in consumer engagement [1] Group 1: Economic Factors - There is a noticeable slowdown in the growth of residents' income, with the actual growth of per capita disposable income at 3.2% in the first quarter of 2025, significantly lower than the GDP growth of 5.3% during the same period [4] - Increased living costs, including housing loans, education, and medical expenses, have forced many families to cut back on non-essential spending, leading to a contraction in consumer demand [4] Group 2: Demographic Changes - China is experiencing an aging population, with over 300 million individuals aged 60 and above by the end of 2024. While some elderly individuals have savings, their consumption needs are limited [6] - The declining number of young consumers, coupled with their generally lower income levels, further constrains overall consumption capacity [6] Group 3: Market Competition - Traditional brick-and-mortar stores are facing significant competition from e-commerce platforms, which offer lower prices and convenient delivery options, making it difficult for physical stores to compete [8] - Rising costs related to rent, labor, and supply chains hinder physical stores from lowering prices to attract customers [8] Group 4: Consumer Behavior - Post-pandemic consumer behavior has shifted towards more cautious spending, with individuals now prioritizing savings over impulsive purchases, leading to a noticeable decline in market demand [10] - SMEs are advised to adapt by understanding consumer needs, engaging in differentiated competition with e-commerce, and leveraging online platforms to enhance their market presence [10]

Core Viewpoint - The price of Moutai, once considered "liquid gold," has significantly declined due to multiple interrelated factors, leading to a historical low in wholesale prices and a shift in consumer behavior [1][5][18] Group 1: Price Decline and Market Dynamics - Since June 2024, the wholesale price of Moutai has dropped to 1770 RMB per bottle, marking a decline of over 20% from the previous price of 2220 RMB [1] - The market is experiencing a significant imbalance between supply and demand, with an estimated 120 million bottles of Moutai in circulation and new production capacity adding to the inventory [6] - The introduction of strict alcohol prohibition policies has drastically reduced the consumption of Moutai in government settings, decreasing its market share from 40% in 2012 to less than 0.8% [5] Group 2: Changing Consumer Preferences - The younger generation shows a declining interest in traditional liquor, with only 9% of Gen Z consuming Moutai, and 73% reducing their alcohol intake for health reasons [7] - The demand for Moutai as a gift has plummeted from 35% to 12%, while alternative beverages like whiskey and low-alcohol drinks are gaining popularity among younger consumers [7] Group 3: Impact of E-commerce and Financial Attributes - E-commerce platforms have disrupted traditional pricing structures, with aggressive pricing strategies leading to a significant drop in Moutai's market price [8][11] - The annualized return on Moutai has fallen below 5%, down from 18% between 2020 and 2024, causing investors to seek more stable assets [8] Group 4: Distributor Challenges and Industry Reactions - Distributors are facing unprecedented survival challenges, with some reporting losses of 500 RMB per bottle sold, leading to a crisis in the distribution network [10] - The price collapse has triggered a domino effect, causing other premium brands to lower their prices, with notable declines in brands like Wuliangye and Guojiao 1573 [10] Group 5: Strategic Responses and Future Outlook - Moutai is attempting to stabilize prices through various strategies, including increasing direct sales and targeting younger consumers with new product lines [17] - The company is also expanding its international market presence, with overseas revenue reaching 5.1 billion RMB in 2024, a 19.27% increase year-on-year [17] - The ongoing price adjustments reflect a re-evaluation of Moutai's position as a luxury item versus its fundamental value as a consumer product [18]

Core Viewpoint - The decline in foot traffic and sales in high-end shopping malls in first-tier cities is attributed to multiple factors, including wealth reduction, income decline, e-commerce competition, and changes in consumer spending habits [1][14]. Group 1: Consumer Behavior Changes - First-tier cities like Beijing and Shanghai are experiencing slower consumption growth, even negative growth, contrary to previous assumptions that they would withstand economic fluctuations [3][14]. - Many families are burdened with high mortgage payments, leading to reduced discretionary spending on non-essential items like clothing and entertainment [5][6]. - Shopping malls are increasingly viewed as non-essential, with consumers prioritizing experiences over material goods [12][15]. Group 2: Impact of E-commerce - The rise of e-commerce has significantly impacted traditional retail, with online retail sales increasing from 10 trillion yuan in 2019 to 15.5 trillion yuan in 2024, while physical malls see declining foot traffic [11][12]. - Many shopping malls have failed to adapt to the evolving retail landscape, maintaining outdated layouts and lacking competitive pricing or convenience compared to online platforms [11][12]. Group 3: Economic and Structural Factors - The decline in consumer confidence among the middle class is a critical factor affecting physical retail, as high-end positioning no longer guarantees success [14][15]. - The shift in consumer spending from goods to services is evident, with service retail sales growing by 20% in 2023, outpacing goods retail growth [13][14]. - The overall retail landscape is changing, and malls must either differentiate through unique experiences or embrace new consumer trends to survive [15][17].

Core Insights - The traditional wholesale market is facing significant challenges due to changing consumer behaviors and the rise of e-commerce platforms, leading to a decline in business for many wholesalers [1][2][5] - Wholesalers are experiencing increased operational costs and reduced profit margins, making it difficult to sustain their businesses [3][4] - Successful adaptation strategies include transforming into service-oriented businesses, leveraging digital tools, and embracing new sales channels like live streaming [6][7][9] Group 1: Market Challenges - The wholesale market is witnessing a decline as traditional methods of selling are becoming obsolete due to e-commerce and direct manufacturer sales [1][2] - Wholesalers are struggling with rising costs, such as increased rent and labor expenses, while facing pressure from manufacturers who are bypassing them to sell directly to retailers [3][4] - The shift in consumer demand towards smaller, more frequent purchases and trendy products is disrupting the traditional bulk purchasing model [2][5] Group 2: Adaptation Strategies - Some wholesalers are successfully pivoting to become supply chain service providers, offering value-added services like product selection and promotional design [6][7] - The use of digital tools, such as ERP systems, is helping wholesalers manage inventory and sales more effectively, reducing the risk of overstocking [6][7] - Live streaming and online sales channels are being adopted by some wholesalers to reach a broader audience and increase sales, demonstrating the importance of innovation in the current market [6][9] Group 3: Future Outlook - The wholesale market is not disappearing but evolving, with those willing to adapt to new business models and consumer preferences likely to survive [5][9] - The industry's transformation reflects a broader trend where businesses must continuously innovate to remain competitive in a rapidly changing environment [5][9] - The essence of business remains in solving customer problems, and those who can effectively support retailers will thrive in the new commercial landscape [9]

Core Viewpoint - The decline of Renrenle, the first private supermarket listed in China, leading to its delisting, reflects the challenges faced by traditional retail in the face of e-commerce competition and changing consumer habits [1][12]. Financial Performance - Renrenle was listed on January 13, 2010, with an initial stock price of 26.98 yuan per share, reaching a peak market capitalization of approximately 136.68 billion yuan shortly after [2]. - By July 3, 2025, Renrenle's stock price had fallen to 0.36 yuan per share, resulting in a total market capitalization of about 1.58 million yuan [2]. - The company reported a net asset of -4.04 billion yuan for the fiscal year 2024, continuing a trend of negative net profits since its third year of listing [4][6]. Operational Challenges - Renrenle faced significant operational challenges, including rising store operating costs, intense competition from online retailers, and a shift in consumer shopping habits [1][4]. - The company has experienced net losses in nine out of its fifteen years since going public, with attempts at transformation and new business ventures yielding little success [1][4]. Store Management and Strategy - Renrenle's store count peaked at 149 in 2019 but has since declined, with the company closing 45 stores and opening only one new store by the end of 2024 [11]. - The company has attempted to mitigate losses through asset sales and restructuring, including the divestment of subsidiaries and renegotiation of debts with suppliers [6][12]. Market Context - The retail sector has seen a significant number of companies delist, with 17 companies exiting the A-share market in 2024 alone, highlighting the broader challenges within the industry [12][13]. - Analysts attribute Renrenle's struggles to poor strategic decisions, including overexpansion and failure to adapt to e-commerce trends, which ultimately led to its loss of competitive advantage [12][13].