贵金属专题 20251019 摘要 2025 年白银市场挤仓背景复杂，光伏需求增加、国内光伏组件产量提 升、海外电池片需求爆发等多重因素叠加，导致白银供需紧张。 光伏产业对白银需求显著增加，中国光伏组件和电池片大量使用银浆， 导致国内白银行存从 2022 年的 6,000-7,000 吨降至 2000 多吨，海外 需求激增进一步推高用银需求。 全球白银行存分布不均，伦敦库存因印度需求和美国关税政策降至 25,000 吨左右，大量库存转移至纽约 COMEX，但部分为 ETF 持有的 死库存，实际流通量有限。 伦敦地区白银流通库存紧张，仅剩约 4,000 吨，原因是全球显性库存集 中在纽约、美国加税担忧导致库存外流，以及国内光伏需求超预期增长。 美国地质调查局拟将白银列入关键矿产名单，可能加征关税，虽大概率 不会实施，但引发市场关注，影响交易行为，或将进一步推高美国国内 白银价格。 有色金属板块估值处于历史底部区域，市盈率维持在 10 至 12 倍左右， 资金吸纳能力强，预计随着催化因素出现，将继续保持上涨趋势，2026 年仍值得关注。 白银板块上市公司标的较少，星月银溪和盛达资源未来几年白银产量增 速较快，具有 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the current surge in silver prices, drawing parallels to the Hunt Brothers' attempt to corner the silver market in 1979, which led to a significant price increase [4][11]. - The ongoing silver squeeze is attributed to rising demand, particularly from India, and a dwindling supply of physical silver, leading to unprecedented market conditions [6][7]. Silver Market Dynamics - By the end of 1979, the Hunt Brothers controlled approximately one-third of all silver not owned by governments, leading to a panic among futures brokers due to insufficient physical silver to meet their contracts [3][4]. - The current silver market is experiencing a similar panic, with prices reaching levels not seen since the 1979 squeeze, driven by a supply-demand imbalance [4][11]. Demand and Supply Factors - Silver mining has been in a deficit for five consecutive years, with demand from various industries, including electronics and solar energy, surpassing traditional uses [11][14]. - The demand for silver is expected to grow significantly, particularly due to its essential role in AI technologies and solar energy, with projections indicating a potential 35% increase in demand over the next five years [14][15]. Investment Opportunities - The silver-to-gold ratio (SGR) has fallen below the historically significant level of 1.27%, indicating a favorable buying opportunity for silver [8][10]. - Silver stocks and ETFs are benefiting from the current market conditions, with notable increases in value, such as a 30% rise in a specific silver ETF recommendation over four months [15][16].