无论是1980年的亨特兄弟挤仓行情还是2011年的量化宽松投 机热潮，其结果均如出一辙：缺乏基本面支撑的投机泡沫难以 持续，在强监管之下挤仓行情结束，银价短期大幅下挫，并随 之经历长期的低迷期。作为白银历史上的第三轮大牛市，本轮 行情同样有着"挤仓"的烙印。那么，"黑色星期五"会是此次 牛市的终结信号吗？ "尊敬的客户：期货市场出现较大行情，由于您的账户出现超风险状况，本公司提醒您务必及时补 足可用资金或采取减仓措施，否则本公司将有权根据合同约定进行强平，不再另行电话通知!" 2026年1月30日傍晚，期货投资者刘先生收到了期货公司发来的警示短信。当天，国内白银主连 合约（下称"沪银主连合约"）冲高失败后走出闪崩行情，最终以27941元/千克报收，大跌 6.03%，单日震幅高达16%。同日，A股市场上的白银概念股亦大面积跌停。 就在刘先生收到短信的差不多同一时间，上海期货交易所（下称"上期所"）在其官网发布了新一 轮的监管措施：决定上调白银期货相关合约的交易保证金比例。 当天夜市开盘（属于2月2日行情），沪银主连合约大幅跳空低开，最终以跌停板报收，暴跌 17.00%，至24832元/千克。外盘跌势则尤为惨烈， ...

经济观察报记者 邹永勤 "尊敬的客户：期货市场出现较大行情，由于您的账户出现超风险状况，本公司提醒您务必及时补足可用资金或采取减仓措施，否则本公司将有权根据合同 约定进行强平，不再另行电话通知!" 2026年1月30日傍晚，期货投资者刘先生收到了期货公司发来的警示短信。当天，国内白银主连合约（下称"沪银主连合约"）冲高失败后走出闪崩行情，最 终以27941元/千克报收，大跌6.03%，单日震幅高达16%。同日，A股市场上的白银概念股亦大面积跌停。 就在刘先生收到短信的差不多同一时间，上海期货交易所（下称"上期所"）在其官网发布了新一轮的监管措施：决定上调白银期货相关合约的交易保证金比 例。 当天夜市开盘（属于2月2日行情），沪银主连合约大幅跳空低开，最终以跌停板报收，暴跌17.00%，至24832元/千克。外盘跌势则尤为惨烈，纽约商品交易 所（下称"COMEX"）的CMX白银主连合约一度大跌将近36%，尾盘虽略有反弹，但仍以25.50%的跌幅报收。 对于白银突遭"黑色星期五"，刘先生在接受经济观察报记者采访时也表示十分意外。当天夜盘，他不得不对其所持有的沪银期货品种进行了"忍痛割肉"。 从"暴涨"到"暴跌" ...

Group 1 - The core issue in the silver market is a significant supply shortage, with demand exceeding supply for four consecutive years, and a projected structural market gap of 148.9 million ounces in 2024, leading to a total shortfall of 678 million ounces over the past four years, equivalent to 10 months of global mine production in 2024 [1] - The recent trend in the COMEX silver market shows investors rolling their contracts back from March to January and February, indicating a desire for immediate physical delivery of silver rather than waiting for the March contract [2][3] - The increase in open interest for January and February contracts, alongside a decrease for March contracts, suggests that traders are seeking to secure physical silver amid a tight supply situation, which could further deplete COMEX registered inventories [4][5] Group 2 - The phenomenon of backwardation in the silver market, where contracts are rolled back to nearer expiration dates, indicates a current spot premium and a shortage of physical silver, as traders prefer immediate delivery [4] - Analysts suggest that the current market dynamics could lead to significant challenges for COMEX if the trend of increasing demand for physical delivery continues, potentially exacerbating the existing supply issues [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant increase in silver inventory in London, which has alleviated previous supply shortages, driven by a historic arbitrage opportunity that attracted silver to the city [5][10]. Group 1: Silver Inventory Increase - London vaults saw an increase of nearly 54 million ounces of silver in October, the largest rise in at least nine years, which is equivalent to the weight of over 100 iconic double-decker buses in London [5]. - This influx of silver was primarily due to arbitrage opportunities created by tight market conditions, which drew silver away from other regions [5][6]. - Earlier this year, silver inventories in London had dropped to historical lows due to tariff concerns, but the recent demand surge from India and ETF purchases has significantly changed the market dynamics [5][11]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Price Changes - Approximately 48 million ounces of silver flowed out of the New York Commodity Exchange (Comex) vaults in October, while the Shanghai Futures Exchange saw a reduction of nearly 17 million ounces in its warehouse stocks [10]. - The current spot price of silver in London is slightly lower than that of New York futures, indicating a shift in market conditions [10]. - Despite the increase in inventory, the borrowing cost for silver in London remains high at around 5% annualized, although this is a significant decrease from over 30% during the peak of the squeeze in October [13]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The upcoming wedding season in India is expected to continue driving strong demand for silver, which may keep the market tight in the short term [14]. - There are potential risks related to tariffs, as the U.S. has included silver in a list of critical minerals under the Trump administration's Section 232 investigation, which could lead to tariffs and trade restrictions [14].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The silver market in 2025 is experiencing a complex squeeze due to multiple factors including increased demand from the photovoltaic (PV) industry, rising domestic PV component production, and a surge in overseas demand for battery cells [2][5][10] - The silver inventory in China has decreased significantly from 6,000-7,000 tons in 2022 to over 2,000 tons, driven by the growing consumption of silver paste in PV components and cells [2][7] - Global silver inventory distribution is uneven, with London stocks dropping to around 25,000 tons due to Indian demand and U.S. tariff policies, while much of the inventory has shifted to New York COMEX, although a significant portion is held as dead inventory by ETFs [2][8][12] Market Dynamics - The current squeeze in the silver market is attributed to a combination of factors, including unexpected growth in PV demand and a shift in inventory from London to New York due to U.S. tariffs [4][6][12] - The U.S. Geological Survey's proposal to list silver as a critical mineral may lead to potential tariffs, which, while unlikely to be implemented, has raised market concerns and could influence trading behavior [14] Company Insights - There are limited publicly listed companies in the silver sector, with Xingyue Silver Stream and Shengda Resources showing significant growth potential in silver production over the next few years [3][22] - Xingyue Silver Stream's silver output is expected to increase from 300 tons in 2025 to over 1,000 tons by 2029, while Shengda Resources is projected to grow from 140 tons in 2024 to 280 tons by 2027 [22] Historical Context - The silver market has experienced notable squeeze events in the past, including those in the 1980s and 2011-2012, with the current squeeze being more complex due to various overlapping factors [4][5] Future Outlook - The future price of silver is likely to be influenced by ongoing demand from the PV industry, uncertainties surrounding U.S. government tariff policies, and technological advancements that may reduce the amount of silver used per unit [10][15] - The overall valuation of the non-ferrous metals sector is at historical lows, with price-to-earnings ratios around 10 to 12 times, indicating strong absorption capacity and potential for upward trends in 2026 [17][18] Additional Considerations - The silver ETF market is dominated by iShares, with total holdings around 15,000 tons, and significant portions of inventory are held in London and New York [11] - The tightening of silver circulation inventory in London is attributed to the concentration of global visible inventory in New York and increased domestic PV demand [12][13]

Core Insights - The article discusses the current surge in silver prices, drawing parallels to the Hunt Brothers' attempt to corner the silver market in 1979, which led to a significant price increase [4][11]. - The ongoing silver squeeze is attributed to rising demand, particularly from India, and a dwindling supply of physical silver, leading to unprecedented market conditions [6][7]. Silver Market Dynamics - By the end of 1979, the Hunt Brothers controlled approximately one-third of all silver not owned by governments, leading to a panic among futures brokers due to insufficient physical silver to meet their contracts [3][4]. - The current silver market is experiencing a similar panic, with prices reaching levels not seen since the 1979 squeeze, driven by a supply-demand imbalance [4][11]. Demand and Supply Factors - Silver mining has been in a deficit for five consecutive years, with demand from various industries, including electronics and solar energy, surpassing traditional uses [11][14]. - The demand for silver is expected to grow significantly, particularly due to its essential role in AI technologies and solar energy, with projections indicating a potential 35% increase in demand over the next five years [14][15]. Investment Opportunities - The silver-to-gold ratio (SGR) has fallen below the historically significant level of 1.27%, indicating a favorable buying opportunity for silver [8][10]. - Silver stocks and ETFs are benefiting from the current market conditions, with notable increases in value, such as a 30% rise in a specific silver ETF recommendation over four months [15][16].