Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the monetary policy of the central bank and its implications for the financial market, particularly focusing on interest rates and liquidity management. Core Points and Arguments 1. The central bank's "short-term collection and long-term release" operation aims to adjust liquidity based on different term structures, rather than a comprehensive tightening of liquidity or raising funding costs, to smooth key term interest rate fluctuations around the policy rate [1][4][6] 2. Recent movements in the 30-year treasury futures and rising interest rates have led to speculation about potential changes in monetary policy, but these movements are attributed more to market dynamics rather than significant policy shifts [3][15] 3. The current monetary policy remains supportive and stable, with expectations that the central political bureau meeting at the end of 2025 will continue the 2024 stance, indicating a high probability of interest rate cuts in the first quarter of 2026 [4][16] 4. The central bank's liquidity management framework includes various tools for different time horizons, with a focus on meeting the demand for funds across short, medium, and long-term periods [5][12] 5. The widening spread between 30-year and 10-year interest rates, which has reached 41 basis points, suggests potential trading opportunities, particularly in the 10-year segment, while the 30-year segment may present more of a rebound opportunity rather than a bottom-fishing opportunity [14][16] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. The central bank's communication emphasizes the need for agility and robustness in monetary policy, but this has been a consistent theme and does not indicate imminent major changes [7][8] 2. The current market behavior regarding the independent rise of long-term rates is seen as a result of institutional trading strategies rather than a reflection of significant changes in policy or market conditions [4][15] 3. The concept of "appropriate loosening" is defined as maintaining ample liquidity supply, with social financing and broad money supply growth rates above 6-7%, and involves dynamic adjustments based on economic conditions [11][12] 4. The central bank's operations are designed to balance supply and demand across different maturities, and any future adjustments will depend on market conditions, particularly if short-term rates show abnormal increases [6][10]

证券研究报告 | 宏观专题研究 | 中国宏观 相机抉择，静待关税 ──7 月美联储议息会议传递的信号 核心观点 美联储本月继续按兵不动，在前瞻指引上继续维持相机抉择的政策立场，认为当前就 业和通胀两大目标维度均存在潜在风险，未来核心变量基本取决于关税的传导。 值得关注的是：本月两位票委对决议持反对意见支持降息 25BP，分别为特朗普提名的 Bowman 和 Waller（该情况自 1993 年以来首次出现），政治压力传导使得联储内部分 歧加大。展望未来，我们继续维持联储年内降息 2 次，并重点关注缩表可能暂停的前 期观点。 对于近期特朗普拟罢免鲍威尔的联储主席人选"风波"，我们更倾向于其是短期扰 动，对联储中期政策路径影响有限。首先，我们认为鲍威尔年内被解雇的风险有限， 市场本身的负反馈机制对特朗普形成明显制约。其次，即便小概率情形下鲍威尔遭遇 解雇，新任联储主席也未必会保持上任前后的"言行合一"，与特朗普配合执行其预想 中的货币宽松立场，潜在的通胀反弹压力仍将对联储中期的降息路径形成制约。 ❑ 联储继续按兵不动，"相机抉择"的核心要素基本取决于关税的影响 利率区间方面，美联储按兵不动符合会前市场定价，联邦基 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Meeting Minutes Industry Overview - The meeting primarily discusses the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and its implications for the economy, particularly focusing on inflation and employment trends. Core Insights and Arguments - The theme of the meeting is "data-dependent decision-making" [2] - There is an increasing risk of stagflation as both unemployment and inflation rates are rising [3] - Inflation effects from tariffs are expected to be more persistent, largely depending on the magnitude and duration of the tariffs [3] - The perception of tariff-related inflation has shifted; the Fed no longer views it as "transitory" [3] - Economic growth uncertainty has further increased, indicating a cautious outlook [3] Other Important but Potentially Overlooked Content - The overall tone of the meeting was described as "dull," suggesting a lack of immediate action or urgency in policy changes [1][2]

证券研究报告 | 宏观专题研究 | 中国宏观 联储且行且看，"滞胀"风险增加 ──5 月美联储议息会议传递的信号 核心观点 本月美联储对通胀和就业市场的风险评估均有所上行，认为失业率和通胀双双走高的 滞胀风险正在逐步增加。相机抉择的模式下整体政策立场中性。展望未来： 降息方面，预计年内联储整体仍将保持较强政策定力，潜在的"滞胀"趋势下，我们 认为联储的政策重心或将聚焦于通胀。主要原因在于经济虽有下行压力但劳动力供给 端约束或使得失业率仍在中性目标附近。在此背景下，我们预计联储将保持政策定力， 在下半年逐季降息，每次 25BP。但 6 月议息会议，尤其是对等关税明朗化以前能否降 息存在较强不确定性。 数量型政策方面，预计金融稳定将是下半年联储政策。当前美股、美债均存在一定流 动性压力，一旦因特朗普的政策反复导致外资撤离继而引发美国资产大幅波动，则联 储的缩表可能暂停。如果 10 年美债利率再次冲击 5%，不排除联储启动紧急购债稳定 市场。 ❑ "滞胀"风险评估增加，政策路径且行且看 利率区间方面，美联储按兵不动符合会前市场定价，联邦基金目标利率维持在 4. 25%-4. 50%区间；议息声明中，相较 1 月联储 ...