1月7日央行公告称，为保持银行体系流动性充裕，2026年1月8日，中国人民银行将以固定数量、利率招 标、多重价位中标方式开展11000亿元买断式逆回购操作，期限为3个月（90天）。 文/刘佳 因1月8日将有11000亿元3个月期买断式逆回购到期，央行当日开展11000亿元买断式逆回购操作，意味 着当月3个月期买断式逆回购为等量续作，也是该政策工具连续第三个月等量续作。 除此之外，1月还有6000亿元6个月期买断式逆回购到期，业内人士预计央行当月还会开展一次6个月期 买断式操作，估计加量续作的可能性比较大。 "往后看，1月还有2000亿元MLF到期，央行也可能加量续作。"业内人士对记者表示，总体上1月央行会 综合运用买断式逆回购、MLF两项政策工具，持续向市场注入中期流动性。这是2026年货币政策延 续"适度宽松"基调，保持流动性充裕的具体体现。 编辑：冯樱子 ...

2025年是很不平凡的一年，面对国内外形势带来的严峻挑战，以习近平同志为核心的党中央团结带领全 党全国各族人民迎难而上、奋力拼搏，经济社会发展主要目标将顺利完成，"十四五"即将圆满收官。我 国经济顶压前行、向新向优发展，改革开放迈出新步伐，民生保障更加有力，社会大局保持稳定。这些 成绩来之不易。 在这一过程中，新质生产力、扩大内需、高水平开放、风险化解、适度宽松、绿色转型等关键词为发展 提供了最鲜明的注脚，也是中国经济重要发力点所在。围绕这些关键词，有哪些政策出台、有哪些最新 进展，未来又有哪些新期待？我们一一盘点。 新质生产力 促新动能不断积聚 2025年，我国围绕科技创新和产业升级加快培育发展新质生产力，新动能不断积聚，高质量发展的基础 更加稳固、成效更加显现。 传统产业是现代化产业体系的基底，是加快发展新质生产力的重要力量。2025年，工信部发布钢铁、建 材、机械、石化等十大行业稳增长行动方案，推动相关产业科技创新不断强化，助力传统优势行业加快 向数字化、智能化、绿色化转型升级。 战略性新兴产业、未来产业是培育和发展新质生产力的主阵地。2025年，新能源汽车、光伏、锂电池等 优势产业培育壮大；柔性定制、 ...

风险提示：提及个股仅用于行业事件分析，不构成任何个股推荐或投资建议。指数等短期涨跌仅供参 考，不代表其未来表现，亦不构成对基金业绩的承诺或保证。观点可能随市场环境变化而调整，不构成 投资建议或承诺。提及基金风险收益特征各不相同，敬请投资者仔细阅读基金法律文件，充分了解产品 要素、风险等级及收益分配原则，选择与自身风险承受能力匹配的产品，谨慎投资。 每日经济新闻 德邦证券指出，中长期来看，中央经济工作会议"适度宽松"的定调仍为债券市场提供重要支撑，流动性 充裕格局未改。 国债ETF（511010）跟踪的是5年国债指数（000140），该指数主要反映市场上剩余期限约为5年的固定 利率国债的整体表现，成分由中国政府发行的中短期国债构成。 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the monetary policy of the central bank and its implications for the financial market, particularly focusing on interest rates and liquidity management. Core Points and Arguments 1. The central bank's "short-term collection and long-term release" operation aims to adjust liquidity based on different term structures, rather than a comprehensive tightening of liquidity or raising funding costs, to smooth key term interest rate fluctuations around the policy rate [1][4][6] 2. Recent movements in the 30-year treasury futures and rising interest rates have led to speculation about potential changes in monetary policy, but these movements are attributed more to market dynamics rather than significant policy shifts [3][15] 3. The current monetary policy remains supportive and stable, with expectations that the central political bureau meeting at the end of 2025 will continue the 2024 stance, indicating a high probability of interest rate cuts in the first quarter of 2026 [4][16] 4. The central bank's liquidity management framework includes various tools for different time horizons, with a focus on meeting the demand for funds across short, medium, and long-term periods [5][12] 5. The widening spread between 30-year and 10-year interest rates, which has reached 41 basis points, suggests potential trading opportunities, particularly in the 10-year segment, while the 30-year segment may present more of a rebound opportunity rather than a bottom-fishing opportunity [14][16] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. The central bank's communication emphasizes the need for agility and robustness in monetary policy, but this has been a consistent theme and does not indicate imminent major changes [7][8] 2. The current market behavior regarding the independent rise of long-term rates is seen as a result of institutional trading strategies rather than a reflection of significant changes in policy or market conditions [4][15] 3. The concept of "appropriate loosening" is defined as maintaining ample liquidity supply, with social financing and broad money supply growth rates above 6-7%, and involves dynamic adjustments based on economic conditions [11][12] 4. The central bank's operations are designed to balance supply and demand across different maturities, and any future adjustments will depend on market conditions, particularly if short-term rates show abnormal increases [6][10]

Group 1: Policy Review for 2025 - Fiscal policy shows increased strength, with a historical high financing scale of 14.36 trillion yuan, accounting for 10.2% of GDP [1][8] - General fiscal expenditure grew by 7.9% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025, indicating a high level of spending [11][12] - Monetary policy returned to a "moderately loose" tone, with a focus on guiding expectations and improving transmission efficiency [1][23] Group 2: Fiscal Policy Outlook for 2026 - Fiscal policy is expected to become more proactive in supporting economic growth and structural transformation, with a deficit rate maintained around 4% [2][61] - Special bonds and new special debt scales are anticipated to expand slightly compared to 2025, aiming to keep fiscal expenditure growth in line with or above nominal GDP growth [2][63] - The focus will be on investing in social welfare and new infrastructure, particularly in areas like elderly care and child welfare [2][61] Group 3: Tax and Fiscal System Reform - Fiscal reforms will address structural contradictions, focusing on macro tax burden, central-local relations, and social security systems [3][61] - The aim is to maintain a reasonable macro tax burden and regulate tax incentives to curb excessive competition among local governments [3][61] Group 4: Monetary Policy Outlook for 2026 - Monetary policy is likely to maintain a "moderately loose" stance, with an emphasis on liquidity support and precise policy implementation [4][6] - The social financing scale is expected to increase, with M1 growth slightly rebounding due to fiscal input [4][6] - The central bank may implement a rate cut of about 10 basis points to maintain liquidity [4][6] Group 5: Policy Coordination and Macro Governance - The central bank's operations in government bond trading reflect a flexible response to market changes, enhancing policy effectiveness [1][42] - Fiscal injections into commercial banks are aimed at stabilizing their capital adequacy ratios and facilitating monetary policy transmission [49][51] - The collaboration between fiscal and monetary policies is evolving, with a focus on improving the overall governance system [1][42]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the diminishing returns of news and rumors in the market, emphasizing that the impact of the same news decreases significantly after the first and second announcements, leading to a near-zero or even negative effect on the third and subsequent announcements [1]. Group 1: Market Conditions - The central bank conducted a net injection of 364.7 billion yuan through a 7-day reverse repurchase operation, with 161.2 billion yuan maturing today, indicating a balanced and slightly loose funding environment [2]. - The interbank funding rates remained stable, with DR001 around 1.37% and DR007 around 1.70% [2]. - The 10-year government bond yield fluctuated around 1.65%, with a monthly range of less than 5 basis points, reflecting a stable market sentiment [5]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - Industrial enterprise profit data for January to May showed a significant decline, with profit growth dropping to -9.1%, indicating worsening profit margins and collection periods [5]. - The article highlights the need for structural reforms to boost consumer confidence rather than merely preparing for potential external troubles, as suggested by a Cornell University professor [5]. Group 3: Investor Sentiment - A survey indicated that 70% of investors expect the 10-year government bond yield to reach a new low within the year, driven by the established tone of "moderate easing" [5]. - The market sentiment was influenced by the weak industrial profit data and a declining stock market, leading to fluctuations in bond market rates [4][5].

Core Viewpoint - Industry experts believe that there is still room for monetary policy to exert "moderate easing" considering both internal and external factors [1] Summary by Relevant Categories - **Monetary Policy Direction** - The People's Bank of China will flexibly adjust the intensity and pace of policy implementation based on domestic and international economic and financial conditions, as well as the operation of financial markets [1] - **Liquidity Management** - The central bank aims to maintain reasonable and ample liquidity in the market [1]