Wolf Report is a senior analyst and private portfolio manager with over 10 years of generating value ideas in European and North American markets. He is a contributing author and analyst for the investing group iREIT®+HOYA Capital and Wide Moat Research LLC where in addition to the U.S. market, he covers the markets of Scandinavia, Germany, France, UK, Italy, Spain, Portugal and Eastern Europe in search of reasonably valued stock ideas. Learn moreAnalyst’s Disclosure:I/we have a beneficial long position in ...

Wolf Report is a senior analyst and private portfolio manager with over 10 years of generating value ideas in European and North American markets. He is a contributing author and analyst for the investing group iREIT®+HOYA Capital and Wide Moat Research LLC where in addition to the U.S. market, he covers the markets of Scandinavia, Germany, France, UK, Italy, Spain, Portugal and Eastern Europe in search of reasonably valued stock ideas. Learn moreAnalyst’s Disclosure:I/we have a beneficial long position in ...

Market Analysis - The S&P 500 Index (SPX) is currently facing a potential pause or inflection point at the 6,760 level, which is approximately 10% above the previous all-time closing high in February 2025 [1][3] - Recent trading activity has shown a short-term overbought condition as the SPX approached the 6,760 level, leading to profit-taking among bullish investors [3] - A significant sell-off occurred following President Trump's announcement regarding potential tariffs on China, which has reignited tariff uncertainty in the market [4] Volatility and Speculation - The net short position among large speculators on CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) futures is at its highest since August 2022, which historically preceded a 10% decline in the SPX [7] - The VIX surged higher as the SPX sold off, indicating that large speculators were positioned for lower volatility, marking the largest bet on lower volatility in over three years [7][8] - An unwind of the short volatility trade poses a risk, especially with the SPX closing below its 30-day moving average, which could lead to further selling in the stock market [8] Sentiment and Market Dynamics - The VIX has shown two peaks around the late-May closing high, suggesting potential volatility selling opportunities that could temporarily halt the VIX's advance and the equity market's selloff [9] - A close above 22.30 on the VIX could signal further increases in volatility and declines in equity prices in the coming weeks [12] - If short-term traders interpret the recent selloff as a "risk-off" cue, it may lead to reduced exposure from fund managers and increased put buying relative to call buying, indicating potential market weakness [13] Technical Indicators - The SPX's close below its 30-day moving average raises concerns about correction risks, similar to previous instances in July 2024 and February 2025 [14][15] - The 50-day moving average, located only 22 points below the recent SPX close, may provide immediate support if the SPX continues to decline [15]

Group 1 - BP demonstrated stronger oil trading performance compared to competitors during market volatility in Q2 [1] - CEO Murray Auchincloss emphasized reliance on internal analysis to track global crude flows rather than macroeconomic news [1] - The company adopted a strategy of shorter trading cycles to manage price fluctuations, typically trading crude oil, diesel, and gasoline over three to nine months [1] Group 2 - BP's core replacement cost profit reached $2.35 billion in Q2, exceeding analyst expectations of $1.81 billion [2] - In contrast, BP's net profit for Q2 last year was $2.76 billion, and $1.38 billion in Q1 2025 [2] - Competitors Shell and Total expressed a more cautious trading approach due to price volatility, with Shell's CEO noting a conservative risk-averse strategy [2]