摘要 有色金属周报-工业硅&多晶硅 基本面偏弱，上方承压 2025年11月25日 研究所 祁玉蓉 从业资格号：F03100031 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0021060 TEL：010-8229 5006 | | 工业硅 | | 多晶硅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | |  | 成本&利润：硅煤价格略有上涨，硅石、电极价格持稳；随着 |  | 供给端：上周周产27,100吨，环比提升。11月排产来看，川 | | | 西南产区步入平枯水期，电力成本显著抬升。 | | 滇地区厂家有检修减产安排，内蒙古地区则有部分增量， | |  | 供给端：四川地区月末进入枯水期，开工持续下调，云南地区 | | 增减相抵后，预计11月产量降至12万吨左右。 | | | 开工已处于绝对低位，已停产企业暂无资金压力，低于心理价 |  | 需求端：上半年终端装机抢装透支部分下半年需求，国内 | | | 位暂无出货意愿；西北地区开工大稳小动，产量稳中有增；其 | | 招投标项目减少，加之海外需求退坡，组件端压力较大， | | | 他地区开工暂无明显变动。供给端整体呈现缩量趋势，预计11 | | 后续若国内需 ...

有色金属周报-工业硅&多晶硅 区间整理 2025年11月18日 研究所 祁玉蓉 从业资格号：F03100031 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0021060 TEL：010-8229 5006 摘要 | | 工业硅 | | 多晶硅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | |  | 成本&利润：石油焦价格略有上涨，硅石、电极价格持稳；随 |  | 供给端：上周周产26,800吨，环比下滑。11月排产来看，川 | | | 着西南产区步入平枯水期，电力成本显著抬升。 | | 滇地区厂家有检修减产安排，内蒙古地区则有部分增量， | |  | 供给端：四川地区进入平水期，电价上调，云南地区进入枯水 | | 增减相抵后，预计11月产量降至12万吨左右。 | | | 期，两地厂家因成本增加且工业硅价格暂无明显向上驱动，停 |  | 需求端：上半年终端装机抢装透支部分下半年需求，国内 | | | 产范围进一步扩大，产量持续下滑；西北地区上周开工也略有 | | 招投标项目减少，加之海外需求退坡，组件端压力较大， | | | 下滑，产量减少；其他地区开工暂无明显变动。供给端整体呈 | | 成本抬升下组件价格有调涨 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Industrial silicon supply is tightening, with demand mainly for rigid procurement. The oversupply situation remains unchanged, and weak demand and high inventory are the main factors restricting price increases. Short - term silicon prices are expected to range between 8,500 - 9,500 yuan/ton [3]. - The "purchase and storage platform" for polysilicon has not been implemented, and the market has become desensitized. With weak demand and high inventory risks, polysilicon spot prices have declined, and the high premium in the futures market lacks support. Short - term prices are expected to consolidate, and previous long positions should protect profits [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Industrial Silicon 3.1.1 Cost and Profit - Petroleum coke prices have slightly increased, while silica, electrode prices have remained stable. With the southwest region entering the dry - season, power costs have significantly increased [3]. - In September, the average profit of industrial silicon 553 was - 1,029 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 252 yuan/ton; the average profit of 421 was - 665 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 267 yuan/ton [36]. 3.1.2 Supply - In Sichuan, as it enters the normal - water period and electricity prices rise, most manufacturers have stopped production. In Yunnan, due to the dry - season and increased costs, most businesses have stopped production. In the north, the start - up rate is slowly increasing, but a factory in Xinjiang reduced production last week. The overall supply is expected to fall below 400,000 tons in November, a decrease of about 12% [3]. - On November 7, the number of open furnaces decreased by 37 week - on - week, mainly in Sichuan and Yunnan, and slightly in Xinjiang [37]. 3.1.3 Demand - Some polysilicon manufacturers are under maintenance, and production is expected to decline. Organic silicon enterprises that previously cut production have gradually resumed, increasing the demand for industrial silicon, but purchases are mainly for rigid replenishment. The silicon - aluminum alloy industry has no plans to increase or decrease production, and the start - up rate is relatively stable [3]. 3.1.4 Inventory - Except for some southwest silicon enterprises that have reduced production, most manufacturers are in normal production. Due to low prices, silicon enterprises are reluctant to sell, and inventory continues to accumulate [3]. 3.1.5 Market Outlook - The oversupply situation of industrial silicon remains unchanged. Weak demand and high inventory restrict price increases. Short - term silicon prices are expected to range between 8,500 - 9,500 yuan/ton [3]. 3.2 Polysilicon 3.2.1 Supply - Last week, polysilicon production was 27,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1,200 tons. As of November 6, the inventory was 259,000 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons. In October, production was 134,000 tons, an increase of 4,000 tons from September. In November, production is expected to decline to about 120,000 tons [68]. 3.2.2 Demand - The upstream demand from the component side is weak, and there is no obvious inventory - building action. The support from the battery - chip side is insufficient, and the silicon - wafer production plan for November has declined [3]. 3.2.3 Inventory - As of November 6, the total polysilicon inventory was 259,000 tons, and the silicon - wafer inventory was 17.52GW. As of November 7, the registered polysilicon warehouse receipts were 9,850 lots [3]. 3.2.4 Market Outlook - The "purchase and storage platform" has not been implemented, and the market has become desensitized. With weak demand and high inventory risks, polysilicon spot prices have declined, and the high premium in the futures market lacks support. Short - term prices are expected to consolidate [3]. 3.3 Organic Silicon 3.3.1 Supply - In October, the DMC start - up rate was 69.71%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.54 percentage points, and the output was 209,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 600 tons. Recently, the previously maintained devices in Yunnan and Jiangxi have gradually resumed production, and the supply shows an increasing trend [97]. 3.3.2 Price - As of November 7, the average DMC price was 11,150 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 1.36%; the average 107 - rubber price was 11,500 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged; the average silicone oil price was 13,050 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 1.56%. In the long - term, prices may continue to weaken due to oversupply [104]. 3.4 Aluminum Alloy 3.4.1 Start - up Rate - In the week of November 6, the start - up rate of primary aluminum alloy was 59.4%, a week - on - week increase of 0.2 percentage points; the start - up rate of recycled aluminum alloy was 59.1%, remaining unchanged [112]. 3.4.2 Price - As of November 7, the average ADC12 price was 21,450 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 0.70%; the average A356 price was 22,000 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 1.38% [115]. 3.5 Inventory - As of November 6, the industrial silicon social inventory (social + delivery warehouse) was 552,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 6,000 tons; the total factory inventory in Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Sichuan was 172,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3,900 tons. As of November 7, the exchange - registered warehouse receipts were 46,180 lots, equivalent to 230,900 tons of spot [126].

万林新（联系人） 0755-23375162 wanlx@wkqh.cn 交易咨询号：Z0020771 工业硅企稳等待新变量，多晶硅延 续政策叙事 工业硅&多晶硅月报 从业资格号：F03133967 2025/11/07 陈张滢（黑色建材组） 从业资格号：F03098415 CONTENTS 目录 01 月度评估及策略推荐 04 多晶硅 02 期现市场 05 有机硅 03 工业硅 06 硅铝合金及出口 产业链示意图 01 ◆ 库存：10月末，百川盈孚统计口径工业硅库存68.40万吨，维持高位。其中，工厂库存26.47万吨；市场库存18.30万吨；已注册仓单库存 23.63万吨。 ◆ 截至2025/10/31，华东地区553#（不通氧）工业硅现货报价9300元/吨，月环比持平；421#工业硅现货报价9700元/吨，折盘面价8900元/吨， 月环比持平。 ◆ 成本：据百川盈孚数据，10月末调研工业硅主产区成本中，新疆平均成本报8473.08元/吨（在产企业综合成本，下同）；云南地区报 9387.50元/吨；四川地区报9104.76元/吨。 ◆ 供给：2025年10月，百川盈孚口径下工业硅产量40.48万吨，环比+ ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of the silicon market have not significantly improved. The supply side shows a situation of both increases and decreases, remaining generally stable. The demand side is mainly driven by rigid - demand purchases, and the silicon market maintains a pattern of strong supply and weak demand. The poor demand remains the main factor restricting the upward movement of silicon prices. It is expected that silicon prices will maintain range - bound trading in the short term, with an operating range of 8,300 - 9,300 yuan/ton. [3] - The polysilicon market has weak terminal demand, resulting in light trading. Overall, there is a wait - and - see attitude. The price center maintains high - level range fluctuations in the game between policy - driven positive expectations and weak fundamentals. [3] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Industrial Silicon 3.1.1. Cost and Profit - In the context of anti - involution sentiment and increasing demand, the prices of silicon coal, petroleum coke, and electrodes have rebounded. The south - west production area is gradually shifting from the wet season to the dry season, and power costs will gradually rise. [3] - In September, the average profit of industrial silicon 553 nationwide was - 1,029 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 252 yuan/ton; the average profit of industrial silicon 421 was - 665 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 267 yuan/ton. [35] 3.1.2. Supply - As the dry season approaches and production costs rise, most silicon enterprises in the south - west production area are expected to stop production at the end of the month, while a small number are temporarily waiting and watching. At the same time, some silicon enterprises in the north - west regions such as Xinjiang, Gansu, and Inner Mongolia have the intention to increase production, and the current operation is relatively stable. [3] - In the week of October 24, the number of open furnaces of silicon enterprises decreased by 1 compared with the previous week, mainly in Inner Mongolia. [36] 3.1.3. Demand - The polysilicon production in October may still increase slightly, which will increase the demand for industrial silicon. Organic silicon enterprises are mostly in a state of production reduction or maintenance, and it is difficult to increase the demand for industrial silicon. The demand for silicon - aluminum alloy remains stable, and the overall demand for industrial silicon is still weak. [3] 3.1.4. Inventory - Currently, most manufacturers are in normal production, but due to the relatively low price, the willingness to sell is low, and the factory inventory in the south - west region continues to accumulate. [3] 3.1.5. Market Outlook - The silicon market is expected to maintain a pattern of strong supply and weak demand in the short term, and silicon prices will maintain range - bound trading, with an operating range of 8,300 - 9,300 yuan/ton. [3] 3.2. Polysilicon 3.2.1. Supply - Last week, the polysilicon output was 29,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1,500 tons. As of October 23, the polysilicon inventory was 25.8 million tons, an increase of 0.5 million tons. The output in September was 13 million tons, slightly lower than that in August, and it is expected to increase slightly in October. [68] 3.2.2. Demand - The terminal installation rush in the first half of the year overdrafted part of the demand in the second half of the year. The domestic bidding projects have decreased, the component side is under great pressure, and it is difficult to have obvious restocking actions. The support from the battery - chip side is insufficient as orders are delivered and overseas demand declines. [3] 3.2.3. Inventory - As of October 16, the total polysilicon inventory was 253,000 tons, and the silicon - wafer inventory was 17.31GW. As of October 17, the registered polysilicon warehouse receipts were 8,610 lots. [3] 3.2.4. Market Outlook - The polysilicon market has light trading, and the overall sentiment is one of waiting and watching. The price center maintains high - level range fluctuations in the game between policy - driven positive expectations and weak fundamentals. [3] 3.3. Organic Silicon 3.3.1. Supply - In September, the operating rate of China's DMC was 71.25%, a month - on - month decrease of 4.38 percentage points. The DMC output was 210,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 12,900 tons. Recently, many enterprises are in a state of production reduction or maintenance. [98] 3.3.2. Demand - The previous orders have been basically delivered, new orders are scarce, and the inventory accumulation pressure is large. [105] 3.3.3. Market Outlook - The organic silicon price has declined. As of October 24, the average DMC price was 11,100 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 1.77%; the average 107 - rubber price was 11,500 yuan/ton, remaining flat month - on - month; the average silicone oil price was 12,850 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.77%. [105] 3.4. Silicon - Aluminum Alloy 3.4.1. Supply - In the week of October 23, the operating rate of primary aluminum alloy was 59%, a month - on - month increase of 0.6 percentage points; the operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy was 58.6%, remaining flat month - on - month. [113] 3.4.2. Market Outlook - The price of silicon - aluminum alloy has rebounded. As of October 24, the average ADC12 price was 21,200 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 0.71%; the average A356 price was 21,650 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 1.17%. [116] 3.5. Inventory - As of October 23, the social inventory of industrial silicon (social inventory + delivery warehouse) was 559,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3,000 tons; the total factory inventory in Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Sichuan was 167,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 300 tons. As of October 24, the registered warehouse receipts on the exchange were 48,327 lots, equivalent to 241,600 tons of physical goods. [128]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For industrial silicon, the supply pressure persists, with weekly production continuing to rise and the start - up rate in the northwest region increasing. The demand support is weakening as polysilicon production is expected to decline in the last two months and the DMC start - up rate of organic silicon has decreased. The price is expected to move sideways in the short term, constrained by the current situation and easily influenced by the overall commodity environment [16]. - For polysilicon, as November approaches, the supply pressure may ease marginally after the production increase in October. The downstream start - up rate is expected to be stable. The price shows a wide - range oscillation pattern, affected by policy expectations [18]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation Industrial Silicon - Demand: The weekly production of polysilicon is 31,100 tons, showing a slight decline week - on - week [14]. - Price: As of October 24, 2025, the spot price of 553 (non - oxygenated) industrial silicon in East China is 9,300 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week; the spot price of 421 industrial silicon is 9,650 yuan/ton, with the discounted futures price at 8,850 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton week - on - week. The futures main contract (SI2601) closed at 8,920 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan/ton week - on - week [15]. - Cost: The average cost in Xinjiang is 8,473.08 yuan/ton, 9,387.50 yuan/ton in Yunnan, 9,104.76 yuan/ton in Sichuan, and 9,000 yuan/ton in Inner Mongolia [15]. - Supply: The weekly production of industrial silicon is 98,500 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons week - on - week [15]. - Inventory: The industrial silicon inventory is 686,700 tons, down 9,300 tons week - on - week, remaining at a high level [15]. Polysilicon - Price: As of October 24, 2025, the average price of N - type re - feeding polysilicon is 52.98 yuan/kg, up 0.18 yuan/kg week - on - week; the average price of N - type dense polysilicon is 51.5 yuan/kg, up 0.25 yuan/kg week - on - week. The futures main contract (PS2601) closed at 52,305 yuan/ton, down 2,545 yuan/ton week - on - week [17]. - Cost: The production cost of polysilicon is 41,443.00 yuan/ton, with a gross profit of 9,157.00 yuan/ton [17]. - Supply: The weekly production of polysilicon is 31,100 tons, showing a slight decline week - on - week, close to the same period in 2024 [17]. - Downstream: The weekly production of silicon wafers is 14.73 GW, rising slightly week - on - week; the production of solar cells in September is 60.97 GW, up 2.7 GW month - on - month; the production of modules in September is 49.9 GW, up 0.7 GW month - on - month [17]. - Inventory: The factory inventory of polysilicon is 273,000 tons according to Baichuan Yingfu, and 258,000 tons according to SMM [17]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets Industrial Silicon - As of October 24, 2025, the spot price of 553 (non - oxygenated) industrial silicon in East China is 9,300 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week; the spot price of 421 industrial silicon is 9,650 yuan/ton, with the discounted futures price at 8,850 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton week - on - week. The futures main contract (SI2601) closed at 8,920 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan/ton week - on - week [23]. Polysilicon - As of October 24, 2025, the average price of N - type re - feeding polysilicon is 52.98 yuan/kg, up 0.18 yuan/kg week - on - week; the average price of N - type dense polysilicon is 51.5 yuan/kg, up 0.25 yuan/kg week - on - week. The futures main contract (PS2601) closed at 52,305 yuan/ton, down 2,545 yuan/ton week - on - week [26]. 3.3 Industrial Silicon Total Production - As of October 24, 2025, the weekly production of industrial silicon is 98,500 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons week - on - week. In September 2025, the production is 384,000 tons, up 13,600 tons month - on - month, and the cumulative production from January to September decreased by 596,500 tons or 16.89% year - on - year [31]. Production in Major Producing Areas - Not elaborated in detail in terms of specific changes in the text, but data charts for major producing areas such as Sichuan, Yunnan, Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, and Gansu are provided [33][35][38] Production Cost - As of October 24, 2025, the electricity price in major producing areas remained unchanged week - on - week, and the silica price was stable. The silicon coal price in major producing areas was stable week - on - week. The average cost in Xinjiang is 8,473.08 yuan/ton, 9,387.50 yuan/ton in Yunnan, 9,104.76 yuan/ton in Sichuan, and 9,000 yuan/ton in Inner Mongolia [44][47]. Visible Inventory - As of October 24, 2025, the industrial silicon inventory is 686,700 tons, down 9,300 tons week - on - week, remaining at a high level. Factory inventory is 262,100 tons, down 400 tons week - on - week; market inventory is 183,000 tons, unchanged week - on - week; registered warehouse receipt inventory is 241,600 tons, down 8,900 tons week - on - week [50]. 3.4 Polysilicon Production - As of October 24, 2025, the weekly production of polysilicon is 31,100 tons, showing a slight decline week - on - week, close to the same period in 2024. The production in September is 130,000 tons, down 17,000 tons month - on - month; the cumulative production from January to September is 941,100 tons, a decrease of 33.30% year - on - year [55]. Start - up Rate and Scheduled Production - The start - up rate of polysilicon in September is 49.43%, up 3.65 percentage points month - on - month. SMM expects the production in October to be 134,500 tons, increasing month - on - month [58]. Inventory - As of October 24, 2025, the factory inventory of polysilicon is 273,000 tons according to Baichuan Yingfu, and 258,000 tons according to SMM [61]. Cost and Profit - As of October 24, 2025, the production cost of polysilicon is 41,443.00 yuan/ton, and the gross profit is 9,157.00 yuan/ton, with relatively good profit [64]. Downstream (Silicon Wafers, Solar Cells, Modules) - Silicon wafers: The weekly production is 14.73 GW, rising slightly week - on - week; the production in September is 59.05 GW, up 3.01 GW month - on - month; the production from January to September is 488.17 GW, a decrease of 5.58% year - on - year. The inventory is 18.47 GW, increasing slightly week - on - week; the predicted production in October is 55.68 GW, decreasing month - on - month [67][70]. - Solar cells: The production in September is 60.97 GW, up 2.7 GW month - on - month; the start - up rate in September is 59.56%, up 2.67 percentage points month - on - month. The inventory is 7.1 GW, rising week - on - week; the predicted production in October is 59.6 GW, decreasing slightly month - on - month [75][78]. - Modules: The production in September is 49.9 GW, up 0.7 GW month - on - month; the start - up rate in September is 48.7%, down 0.39 percentage points month - on - month. The inventory is 33.5 GW, decreasing slightly week - on - week; the predicted production in October is 48.31 GW, lower than that in September [83][86]. 3.5 Organic Silicon Production - As of October 24, 2025, the DMC production is 45,000 tons, down 1,300 tons week - on - week. The production in September is 208,800 tons, down 10,800 tons month - on - month. The cumulative production from January to September is 1,861,800 tons, an increase of 16.89% year - on - year [93]. Price and Profit - As of October 24, 2025, the average price of organic silicon is 11,100 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan/ton week - on - week. The DMC gross profit is - 1,440.63 yuan/ton [96]. Inventory - As of October 24, 2025, the DMC inventory is 43,000 tons, up 1,200 tons week - on - week [99]. 3.6 Silicon - Aluminum Alloy and Exports Aluminum Alloy - As of October 24, 2025, the price of primary aluminum alloy A356 is 21,690 yuan/ton, up 270 yuan/ton week - on - week; the price of recycled aluminum alloy ADC12 is 21,230 yuan/ton, up 160 yuan/ton week - on - week. The cumulative production from January to September is 1,411,600 tons, an increase of 254,400 tons or 21.98% year - on - year. The start - up rate of primary aluminum alloy is 59%, and that of recycled aluminum alloy is 58.6% [104][107]. Exports - The cumulative net export of industrial silicon from January to September is 553,000 tons, an increase of 27,700 tons or 5.27% year - on - year [110].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - For industrial silicon, the supply side still has a certain increment while the improvement in demand is limited. It remains in an oversupplied pattern, which may suppress the upper limit of the market. Attention should be paid to the support level of 8,300 - 8,500 yuan/ton. [1] - For polysilicon, with new supply - side news, the polysilicon market has risen again. Considering the high raw material inventory of downstream enterprises, it's difficult to have a concentrated restocking in the short term, and there is significant pressure for the spot price to continue rising, which may suppress the upper limit of the market. [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Price Information - Industrial silicon: The average price of non - oxygenated 553 (East China) remained flat at 9,300 yuan/ton, and the average price of 421 (East China) remained flat at 9,700 yuan/ton. The closing price of the futures main contract dropped 2.03% to 8,430 yuan/ton. [1] - Polysilicon: The price of N - type dense material remained flat at 51.25 yuan/kg; the price of N - type re - feeding material rose 0.09% to 52.80 yuan/kg; the price of N - type mixed material remained flat at 50.25 yuan/kg; the price of N - type granular silicon remained flat at 50.5 yuan/kg. The closing price of the futures main contract dropped 0.45% to 52,340 yuan/ton. [1] Inventory Information - As of October 16, the total social inventory of industrial silicon in major regions was 562,000 tons, an increase of 17,000 tons from the previous week. Among them, the social general warehouse inventory was 120,000 tons, unchanged from before the holiday, and the social delivery warehouse inventory was 442,000 tons, an increase of 17,000 tons from the previous week. [1] Market News - Mercom India Research reported that in the first half of 2025, India's photovoltaic manufacturing industry grew significantly, with an additional 44.2GW of module production capacity and 7.5GW of battery production capacity. The total production capacity of modules and batteries on the ALMM I and II lists reached 109.5GW and 17.9GW respectively. [1] Investment Strategy - Industrial silicon: Adopt range - bound trading. Continuously monitor industrial policy changes and silicon enterprise production dynamics. [1] - Polysilicon: Go long with a light position on dips before the implementation of supply - side reform policies. Continuously monitor the implementation of industrial policies and macro - sentiment evolution. [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The industrial silicon market maintains a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, with the short - term expected to trade in the range of 8,300 - 9,000 yuan/ton. Continued attention should be paid to macro - sentiment fluctuations and supply - side start - up conditions [3]. - The polysilicon market is in a state of high - level range - bound trading due to the game between policy - favorable expectations and weak fundamentals. Continued attention should be paid to the implementation of industrial policies and macro - sentiment [3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1产业链价格回顾 - **Industrial Silicon Futures and Spot Prices**: On October 10, 2025, the closing price of the industrial silicon futures main contract was 8,685 yuan/ton, up 0.52% from September 30. Most spot prices remained unchanged, with only the price of the oxygen - free 553 at Tianjin Port down 0.53% [12]. - **Polysilicon Futures and Spot Prices**: The closing price of the polysilicon futures main contract on October 10, 2025, was 48,965 yuan/ton, down 4.66% from September 30. Spot prices of various polysilicon types remained unchanged [12]. - **Silicon Wafer, Battery Cell, and Component Prices**: Prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components were generally stable, with only minor price changes in some products [12]. - **Organic Silicon and Aluminum Alloy Prices**: As of October 10, the average DMC price was 11,050 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period; the 107 - rubber average price was 11,500 yuan/ton, up 3.14% from the previous period; the silicone oil average price was 12,850 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period. The ADC12 average price was 21,100 yuan/ton, up 0.96% from the previous period; the A356 average price was 21,450 yuan/ton, up 1.42% from the previous period [12]. 3.2开炉增加，供给持续增量 - **Cost and Profit of Industrial Silicon**: Driven by anti - involution sentiment and increased demand, the prices of silicon coal, petroleum coke, and electrodes have rebounded. The power cost in the southwest production area will gradually increase as it transitions from the wet season to the dry season [3]. - **Supply of Industrial Silicon**: In October, Sichuan and Yunnan are transitioning to the dry season, leading to increased costs and production cuts by some enterprises. In contrast, small factories in Gansu and Ningxia have completed raw material stockpiling, and the start - up rate in Xinjiang has increased. Overall, the start - up rate has increased [3]. - **Demand for Industrial Silicon**: The production of polysilicon in October may still have a slight increase, increasing the demand for industrial silicon. However, some organic silicon enterprises have maintenance plans, and the start - up rate has declined. Overall, the demand for industrial silicon remains weak [3]. - **Inventory of Industrial Silicon**: The futures warehouse receipts have fluctuated slightly. After the holiday, downstream enterprises have successively inquired, but some manufacturers' orders have not been delivered, and factory inventories have accumulated [3]. 3.3光伏产业运行平稳，关注终端需求 - **Polysilicon**: In September, the polysilicon output was 130,000 tons, basically the same as in August. The cumulative output from January to September was 941,600 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 33%. It is expected that the output in October will maintain an incremental trend, with a month - on - month increase of about 3,000 - 5,000 tons. As of October 9, the total polysilicon inventory was 240,000 tons, and the silicon wafer inventory was 16.78 GW. As of October 10, the registered polysilicon warehouse receipts were 8,140 lots [3]. - **Silicon Wafer**: The market was sluggish during the holiday, with little market trading [80]. - **Battery Cell**: The price was stable [87]. - **Component**: The component installation did not meet expectations, and the price was under pressure. The lifting of the component export tax - refund policy is still undetermined. If the policy is implemented, it may stimulate component export demand in the next few months. The pre - implementation inventory rush of India's "double - anti" policy will also support exports to some extent. Domestically, the front - loaded installation in the first half of the year has overdrawn some demand in the second half, resulting in a decrease in domestic tender and bidding projects, lower - than - expected centralized installation, and a decline in distributed trading volume. The component segment is under great pressure, and there is no obvious restocking action for upstream demand [3]. 3.4支撑有限，有机硅价格大稳小动 - **Start - up Rate**: In September, the start - up rate of China's DMC was 71.25%, a month - on - month decrease of 4.38 percentage points. The DMC output was 210,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 12,900 tons. Recently, a monomer factory has a maintenance plan, and the start - up rate may decline slightly [108]. - **Price**: As of October 10, the average DMC price was 11,050 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period; the 107 - rubber average price was 11,500 yuan/ton, up 3.14% from the previous period; the silicone oil average price was 12,850 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period. Due to factory maintenance, the supply has tightened periodically, and the price has increased [114]. 3.5铝合金开工回升 - **Start - up Rate**: In the week of October 9, the start - up rate of primary aluminum alloy was 58%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.4 percentage points; the start - up rate of recycled aluminum alloy was 58.9%, a month - on - month increase of 2.3 percentage points [122]. - **Price**: As of October 10, the average ADC12 price was 21,100 yuan/ton, up 0.96% from the previous period; the average A356 price was 21,450 yuan/ton, up 1.42% from the previous period [125]. 3.6库存维持高位 - **Industrial Silicon Inventory**: As of October 9, the social inventory of industrial silicon (social inventory + delivery warehouse) was 545,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2,000 tons; the total factory inventory in Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Sichuan was 167,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 54,000 tons. As of October 10, the exchange - registered warehouse receipts were 50,281 lots, equivalent to 251,400 tons of spot [139]. - **Polysilicon Inventory**: As of October 9, the total polysilicon inventory was 240,000 tons, an increase of 14,000 tons [74].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - Industrial silicon is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with attention paid to whether the supply - demand structure improves after the holiday. If southwest regions cut production during the dry season and downstream demand remains stable, the high - level inventory may decline, and the far - month contract valuation may rise. However, price maintenance requires real - data confirmation. Also, the potential price improvement from the "anti - involution" policy remains uncertain [16]. - Polysilicon prices may experience a short - term phased decline. After a long - term policy narrative, the upward drive is insufficient without unexpected news. If the fourth - quarter production rate remains the same, there will be real - end pressure. Attention should be paid to the maintenance of leading enterprises and policy changes [18]. Summary by Directory 1. Week - ly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation Demand - Polysilicon weekly output was 31,400 tons, a slight increase from the previous week. DMC output was 47,100 tons, a decrease of 1,500 tons from the previous week. From January to August, the cumulative aluminum alloy output was 12.324 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.163 billion tons or 21.29%. From January to August, China's cumulative net export of industrial silicon was 484,700 tons, a year - on - year increase of 21,000 tons or 4.54% [14]. Inventory - Industrial silicon inventory was 695,700 tons, an increase of 3,700 tons from the previous week, remaining at a high level. Factory inventory was 260,000 tons, an increase of 2,400 tons; market inventory was 185,000 tons, unchanged; registered warehouse - receipt inventory was 250,700 tons, an increase of 1,300 tons [14]. Price and Cost - As of September 26, 2025, the spot price of 553 (non - oxygen - passed) industrial silicon in East China was 9,300 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 200 yuan/ton; the spot price of 421 industrial silicon was 9,700 yuan/ton, with a discounted futures price of 8,900 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 100 yuan/ton. The futures main contract (SI2511) closed at 8,960 yuan/ton, a decrease of 345 yuan/ton. The 553 (non - oxygen - passed) had a premium of 340 yuan/ton over the futures main contract, with a basis rate of 3.66%; the 421 had a discount of 60 yuan/ton, with a basis rate of - 0.67%. The average production cost in Xinjiang was 8,404.17 yuan/ton, 9,387.50 yuan/ton in Yunnan, 9,095.24 yuan/ton in Sichuan, and 9,000 yuan/ton in Inner Mongolia [15]. Supply - The weekly output of industrial silicon was 95,600 tons, an increase of 900 tons from the previous week [15]. 2. Spot and Futures Market Industrial Silicon - As of September 26, 2025, the spot price of 553 (non - oxygen - passed) industrial silicon in East China was 9,300 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 200 yuan/ton; the spot price of 421 industrial silicon was 9,700 yuan/ton, with a discounted futures price of 8,900 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 100 yuan/ton. The futures main contract (SI2511) closed at 8,960 yuan/ton, a decrease of 345 yuan/ton. The 553 (non - oxygen - passed) had a premium of 340 yuan/ton over the futures main contract, with a basis rate of 3.66%; the 421 had a discount of 60 yuan/ton, with a basis rate of - 0.67% [23]. Polysilicon - As of September 26, 2025, the average price of N - type polysilicon re - feedstock was 52.55 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.1 yuan/kg; the average price of N - type dense material was 51.05 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.1 yuan/kg. The futures main contract (PS2511) closed at 51,465 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,235 yuan/ton. The basis of the main contract was 1,085 yuan/ton, with a basis rate of 2.06% [26]. 3. Industrial Silicon Total Output - As of September 26, 2025, the weekly output of industrial silicon was 95,600 tons, an increase of 900 tons from the previous week. In August 2025, the output was 370,500 tons, an increase of 49,300 tons from the previous month. From January to August, the cumulative output decreased by 538,600 tons or 17.44% year - on - year [31]. Production in Main Producing Areas - No specific new data other than the total output was provided in the summary part, but figures for Sichuan, Yunnan, Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, and Gansu were presented in the graphs [30][33][35]. Production Cost - As of September 26, 2025, the electricity price and silicon - coal price in main producing areas remained stable. The average production cost in Xinjiang was 8,404.17 yuan/ton, 9,387.50 yuan/ton in Yunnan, 9,095.24 yuan/ton in Sichuan, and 9,000 yuan/ton in Inner Mongolia [45]. Visible Inventory - As of September 26, 2025, the industrial silicon inventory was 695,700 tons, an increase of 3,700 tons from the previous week, remaining at a high level. Factory inventory was 260,000 tons, an increase of 2,400 tons; market inventory was 185,000 tons, unchanged; registered warehouse - receipt inventory was 250,700 tons, an increase of 1,300 tons [48]. 4. Polysilicon Output - As of September 26, 2025, the weekly output of polysilicon was 31,400 tons, a slight increase from the previous week, close to the same period in 2024. In August, the output was 131,700 tons, an increase of 25,400 tons from the previous month. From January to August, the cumulative output was 811,100 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 36.67% [53]. Capacity Utilization and Scheduled Production - The capacity utilization rate in August was 45.78%, an increase of 6.55 percentage points from the previous month. SMM predicted that the output in September would be 126,700 tons, with a decrease in the capacity utilization rate [56]. Inventory - As of September 26, 2025, the factory inventory of polysilicon was 240,900 tons according to Baichuan Yingfu, and 226,000 tons according to SMM [59]. Cost and Profit - As of September 26, 2025, the production cost of polysilicon was 41,543 yuan/ton, and the gross profit was 9,057 yuan/ton, indicating relatively good profitability [62]. Downstream: Silicon Wafers, Battery Cells, and Components - Silicon wafers: The weekly output was 13.78GW, a slight decrease from the previous week. In August, the output was 56.04GW, an increase of 3.29GW from the previous month. From January to August, the cumulative output was 429.12GW, a year - on - year decrease of 8.77%. The inventory was 16.23GW, a slight decrease from the previous week, and the predicted output in September was 57.53GW, a slight increase [65][68]. - Battery cells: In August, the output was 58.27GW, an increase of 0.08GW from the previous month, and the capacity utilization rate was 56.89%, a decrease of 2.17 percentage points from the previous month. From January to August, the cumulative output was 446.87GW, a year - on - year increase of 0.96%. The inventory was 8.11GW, an increase from the previous week, and the predicted output in September was 60.04GW, a slight increase [73][76]. - Components: In August, the output was 49.2GW, an increase of 2.1GW from the previous month, and the capacity utilization rate was 49.09%, an increase of 3.17 percentage points from the previous month. From January to August, the cumulative output was 379.6GW, a year - on - year increase of 1.31%. The inventory was 35.2GW, a slight increase from the previous week, and the predicted output in September was 50.3GW, an increase from August [81][84]. 5. Organic Silicon Output - As of September 26, 2025, the DMC output was 47,100 tons, a decrease of 1,500 tons from the previous week. In August, the output was 219,600 tons, an increase of 13,100 tons from the previous month. From January to August, the cumulative output was 1.653 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 17.58% [91]. Price and Profit - As of September 26, 2025, the average price of organic silicon was 11,050 yuan/ton, an increase of 250 yuan/ton from the previous week. The gross profit of DMC was - 1,921.88 yuan/ton [94]. Inventory - As of September 26, 2025, the DMC inventory was 44,500 tons, a decrease of 1,300 tons from the previous week [98]. 6. Silicon - Aluminum Alloy and Export Aluminum Alloy - As of September 26, 2025, the price of primary aluminum alloy A356 was 21,220 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week; the price of recycled aluminum alloy ADC12 was 20,940 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton from the previous week. From January to August, the cumulative output was 12.324 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.163 billion tons or 21.29%. The capacity utilization rate of primary aluminum alloy was 58.4%, and that of recycled aluminum alloy was 56.6% [103][106]. Export - From January to August, China's cumulative net export of industrial silicon was 484,700 tons, a year - on - year increase of 21,000 tons or 4.54% [109].

联合研究丨行业深度 [Table_Title] 工业硅深度：消费久进击，蓄力乘风起 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 工业硅是硅产业链的起点，是典型的高耗能行业，其下游主要为多晶硅、有机硅和硅铝合金， 上一轮景气高点后，新产能投放过多导致行业供给过剩，行业景气已触底。展望未来，需求端， 光伏装机平稳，多晶硅增速平缓，有机硅需求韧性十足，在新领域持续提高渗透率，硅铝合金 需求整体持稳；供给端，海外产能增长停滞，国内中小产能有望出清，行业供给侧压力或将减 轻，库存虽仍在高位但增速放缓，"反内卷"背景下，工业硅作为硅产业链的上游，或将复刻多 晶硅反内卷的成功经验，建议关注工业硅相关标的合盛硅业、新安股份和兴发集团。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 马太 邬博华 曹海花 SAC：S0490516100002 SAC：S0490514040001 SAC：S0490522030001 SFC：BUT911 SFC：BQK482 李禹默 徐静 SAC：S0490525060002 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 2 / ...