凤凰网财经讯 9月23-24日，由凤凰卫视、凤凰网主办的"凤凰湾区财经论坛2025"在广州举行，本届论坛以"新格局·新路径"为主题，汇聚全球政商 学界精英，共同洞察变局脉络、探寻发展新机。 魏建国指出，新格局为中国企业带来广阔空间，也提出更高要求。 机遇方面，新兴市场崛起为中国企业开辟了新天地。中国已与52个非洲国家和非盟签署"一带一路"合作备忘录，在非洲价值5000万美元以上的基建 项目中，中方参与占比达31%。多项自贸协定的实施助力中国家电、纺织服装等传统优势产业凭借关税减免、通关便利等条件，重新抢占市场先机。 魏建国表示，如今是一个充满变革与机遇的时代，全球经贸格局正在经历着深刻重塑，人们需要以全新的视野和勇气，展开双臂拥抱这个崭新的世 界。 魏建国表示，全球经贸新格局正呈现出"六化"并存的复杂的态势： 一、集团化和碎片化并存。 区域贸易协定已成为贸易大国划分势力范围的核心工具。例如，《区域全面经济伙伴关系协定》（RCEP）已覆盖全球 30%以上的GDP，区域内90%的关税已归零，推动中国对东盟出口增长9%。与此同时，一些排他性协定如《全面与进步跨太平洋伙伴关系协定》 （CPTPP）等，也通过特定条款强 ...

点击小程序查看报告原文 Abstract 摘要 2025年4月美国政府实施对等关税后，全球资本市场呈现出与传统理论相悖的现象： 作为加征关税国，美元汇率不升反贬，从4月初的104回落至98后维持 低位。美债、美元的避险属性弱化，而中国资产和人民币彰显出相对韧性。 美元的反常疲弱牵动全球资产定价逻辑的转变： 美国市场在关税初期一度经历"股债汇三杀"，美元和美债传统避险资产属性受到冲击，美股则在科技产 业支撑下快速修复；中国资产显现出相对韧性，A股再创新高、人民币汇率稳中有升。 这一系列资产定价的反常现象，折射出全球经济格局正迎来一场大变革：美国政策不确定性推升滞胀风险，而中国凭借制造业韧性对冲外需冲击。 更深 层次上，这些变化共同指向国际货币秩序正由美元单一主导加速走向碎片化、多元化的新范式。 Text 正文 市场影响：美元信用重估下的全球资本再平衡 美国资产：安全资产"不再安全"，但科技趋势对美股仍有支撑 对等关税宣布后，美国市场遭遇罕见的"股债汇三杀"，尤其是美元作为加征国货币不升反贬，成为本次最显著的市场反常特征。 传统理论认为，加征关 税可支撑本币升值，主要通过改善贸易收支、推升通胀和利率预期及增强避险 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the evolving trends in summer tourism and cultural consumption in China, highlighting the increasing focus on family-oriented activities and immersive experiences [10][34]. Group 1: Summer Tourism Trends - The overall growth in cultural tourism bookings has increased by nearly 38% year-on-year, with an expected 9.53 billion travelers during the summer, a 5.8% increase [9]. - Family-oriented travel has become the dominant trend, with over 60% of summer trips categorized as family travel, and orders for summer vacation and educational travel increasing by over 70% [10]. - Immersive dining experiences, such as palace banquets, have gained popularity, with average spending reaching 700 yuan per person, and the market for such experiences growing significantly [14][15]. Group 2: Consumer Behavior and Preferences - Parents are increasingly willing to spend on their children, with a focus on educational and experiential travel, such as factory tours and cultural experiences [20][21]. - Young consumers are gravitating towards "laid-back" travel experiences, such as "slow hiking" and "relaxed rafting," reflecting a shift from high-adrenaline activities to more comfortable options [26][30]. - The trend of "immersive slow travel" has become the most favored travel style among young people, accounting for 55.3% of preferences [32]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Economic Impact - The summer tourism season is characterized by a push for consumption, with over 4,300 cultural and tourism events planned, supported by 5.7 billion yuan in subsidies [35]. - The frequency of travel has increased, with more people planning 3-4 trips compared to previous years, indicating a shift towards more frequent, shorter trips [36][39]. - Despite the increase in travel demand, the hospitality industry is facing challenges, with average hotel revenues declining by 8% during peak travel weeks, highlighting a disconnect between rising visitor numbers and profitability [46][49].

Core Viewpoint - The performance of the US stock market has lagged behind major markets such as China, Europe, and South Korea this year, despite recent highs [2] Market Trends - Global investors are likely to reduce their holdings in US assets and reallocate funds to other markets due to varying initial valuations across regions [2] - Emerging markets have shown strong policy responsiveness, with central banks in these regions raising interest rates earlier than G10 countries, indicating potential for better inflation performance [5] Monetary Policy Insights - The Federal Reserve's current target range for the federal funds rate is 4.25% to 4.50%, with expectations of one or two rate cuts this year depending on inflation and employment data [6] - The stability of inflation expectations is crucial, with historical data suggesting that central banks typically act decisively when inflation expectations rise undesirably [4][6] Debt and Fiscal Policy - The US and France have high fiscal deficit levels, with the US having a relatively low tax rate historically, which could be adjusted to reduce the deficit [7] - PIMCO has reduced holdings in 30-year bonds in the US and Europe but increased positions in Japan due to a decrease in the issuance of ultra-long bonds [7] Investment Strategy - In the current environment, high-quality fixed income assets are seen as important risk hedging tools, with potential annual returns of 5% to 7% for dollar-denominated high-quality bond portfolios [10] - The global aggregate bond index currently offers a yield of approximately 5%, while emerging market local currency bond indices yield around 6.6% [9] Future Outlook - The trend towards fragmentation and a multi-polar world is expected to be a key theme in the next three to five years, impacting global trade dynamics [8] - A diversified global investment strategy is deemed practical, with both developed and emerging markets presenting attractive investment opportunities [8]

Core Viewpoint - The Governor of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, stated that fragmentation is detrimental to global economic activity [1] Group 1 - Fragmentation in the global economy can hinder cooperation and efficiency among nations [1] - The need for a unified approach to address economic challenges was emphasized by Bailey [1] - Bailey highlighted the importance of collaboration in fostering economic growth and stability [1]

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank's policy response will require careful adjustments due to the impacts of fragmentation, which affect the scale, scope, and persistence of shocks, as well as their influence on prices [1] Group 1 - The fragmentation has significant implications for monetary policy, necessitating a cautious approach to adjustments [1] - The shocks resulting from fragmentation are characterized by their scale, scope, and duration, which complicates the monetary policy landscape [1] - Price impacts from these shocks are a critical consideration for the European Central Bank in formulating its policy response [1]