在边野古基地施工现场大门前，冲绳县警察4人一组，分别负责"四肢"，把高举反对标语抗议者一个个 抬离现场。其中一位名叫宫城（化名）的警察告诉记者，他就是冲绳本地人，这里是他的家乡，他非常 明白抗议者的诉求，但作为工作，他必须执行命令。宫城说，"看到冲绳现在所面临的情况，我的心情 十分复杂。" 那你本人是否支持建设边野古基地？面对记者的追问，宫城看了一眼手表说，马上就要下班了，他不想 谈这些，匆匆离去。（邢晓婧） 冲绳县的平均年收入的中位数约为331万日元，而被雇用的渔民每年除去捕鱼收入，光是"监视"这一项 便可带来900万日元的收入。而且，只要边野古基地一直施工，他们就能一直保持远超当地平均水平的 高收入。 这是日本政府的惯用伎俩。1972年冲绳"返还"日本时，依据《日美地位协定》及配套法律，日本政府需 与大量军用地的地主签约，再转交美军使用。为推动签约，日本政府把军用地年租金提高数倍，并支付 远高于同等面积甘蔗地的收购价格。这种做法不仅违背经济规律，削弱当地劳动积极性，更埋下了社会 分裂的隐患。 【环球时报综合报道】对于冲绳民众的不满，日本政府试图用金钱解决问题，也试图用利益分化来消解 抗议力量。 世代依海而 ...

近年来，美国的情况越来越糟糕，就像一辆老旧的车，零部件松动，随时可能报废。到2025年10月，联邦债务已经突破了37.88万亿美元，这个数字庞大到 让人喘不过气。每个美国人都背上了沉重的负担。政府不断扩张开支，尤其是利息支出，已经占去了大部分预算。普通人的生活越来越艰难，腐败问题也逐 渐暴露出来。国防采购中那些巨额合同，援助资金莫名其妙消失，让人不禁怀疑整个系统是否已经腐化。政府的效率也越来越低，企业想要建立新的工厂， 审批过程拖延了好几年，工会和环保部门横插一杠，企业家们只能无奈摇头。民众对华盛顿的信任已经崩溃，街头的抗议活动时有发生，每个人心里都积压 着情绪。内部矛盾越来越严重，像一个随时可能爆炸的火药桶。特朗普的第二任期政策反复无常，关税一再上调，加州的经济严重依赖贸易和移民，本地的 企业叫苦不迭。德州也开始反抗，公开对驱逐留学生和非法移民的政策表示不满，甚至有22个州联合起来抗议，地方和联邦政府的关系日益紧张。地方政府 不愿跟着联邦一起承受经济压力，曾经的合作伙伴现在却变成了负担。社会动荡的迹象愈发明显，西海岸的打砸抢烧事件蔓延，社区的治安一片混乱，警察 已经疲于应对。贫富差距不断拉大，最富有的1%掌 ...

很少有人知道，这笔900亿欧元的援助，实际上从一开始就充满了妥协的气息。欧盟最初并没有打算自己出钱，而是希望动用被冻结的2100亿欧元俄罗斯资 产。但这一提议刚刚提出，就遭到比利时的强烈反对。作为俄罗斯冻结资产的主要存储地，比利时的欧洲清算银行已经被俄罗斯央行起诉。如果强行动用这 些资产，比利时将面临巨额法律赔偿和金融风险，因此比利时当然不愿意承担这一责任。 最后，欧盟只能做出妥协，允许这三个国家不承担债务，其余24个成员国则不得不承担起资金支持的责任，实质上是用24个国家的财政信誉来买单乌克兰的 战局。就援助的实际力度来看，这笔900亿欧元的资金将分摊到2026-2027年两年时间，年均仅为450亿欧元，略低于自2022年以来每年480亿欧元的援助额 度。 更重要的是，这笔钱并非无偿援助，而是贷款。乌克兰当前的财政状况已经无法维持基本的公共服务，更别提偿还这笔贷款了。欧盟自己在报告中也暗示， 这笔贷款的回款将依赖于未来俄罗斯的战争赔款，然而是否能够获得这些赔款，仍然是个未知数。 当地时间12月19日，欧盟经过长时间的讨论，最终决定提供900亿欧元的援助资金支持乌克兰。特朗普政府一度停滞的对乌援助曾被泽连斯基 ...

Core Viewpoint - Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, warns that the rapid growth of U.S. government debt, combined with escalating internal and external conflicts, is creating an environment reminiscent of the pre-World War II era, posing a serious challenge to the existing order [1][2]. Debt Situation - As of October 2025, the U.S. national debt exceeds $37.86 trillion, with the Congressional Budget Office estimating that public debt will reach 99% of GDP in 2024 and rise to 116% by 2034, the highest in U.S. history [2]. - Dalio emphasizes that the debt crisis is intertwined with increasing social division and geopolitical risks, creating a "worrisome environment" due to ongoing global conflicts and wealth inequality [2]. Internal Conflicts - Dalio warns of an emerging "form of civil war" in the U.S. due to "irreconcilable differences," suggesting that these conflicts could escalate into confrontations among various factions if left unaddressed [2]. Bridgewater Associates Performance - Bridgewater Associates is expected to achieve its largest gain since 2010 this year, following strategic adjustments led by current CEO Nir Bar Dea, including team restructuring and asset reduction to enhance overall performance [3]. - As of December 31, the assets under management at Bridgewater were $92 billion, down from nearly $140 billion at the beginning of 2023 [3]. Investment Recommendations - Dalio advises investors to allocate up to 15% of their assets to gold, despite gold prices recently surpassing $4,000 per ounce, indicating a belief in gold's continued value amid inflationary pressures and a weakening dollar [3].

桥水基金创始人达利欧警告称，美国政府债务的过快增长，叠加日益激化的内外冲突，正在催生一种与 二战前夕"非常类似"的氛围，对现有秩序构成严峻挑战。 达利欧在周五接受媒体的采访中将美国债务的快速攀升比作"动脉中的斑块"，称其相对于收入的增长最 终会"挤压支出"。 除了债务问题，他表示，当前的财富不均和持续发酵的全球冲突也令人"深感忧虑"。 据美国国会预算办公室估计，去年公共持有债务占美国GDP的99%，预计到2034年将达到GDP的 116%，超过美国历史上任何时期。 债务危机警告升级 达利欧长期以来一直对美国螺旋式上升的债务风险发出警告。他将这一问题归咎于美国两党政客，并称 其为一颗"赤字/债务炸弹"。上月，他曾指出，飙升的债务正对"货币秩序构成威胁"。他呼吁采取增加 税收和削减开支并行的措施。 根据美国国会预算办公室（CBO）的估算，去年由公众持有的美国国债已达到国内生产总值（GDP） 的99%。该机构预测，到2034年，这一比例将攀升至116%，超过美国历史上任何时期。 在达利欧看来，债务危机并非孤立存在，而是与日益严峻的社会分裂和地缘政治风险交织在一起。他表 示，持续的全球冲突和财富不平等共同创造了一个" ...

Core Viewpoint - The current political crisis in the United States, marked by President Trump's emergency military orders and widespread protests, signifies a potential reshaping of the American political landscape [1][3][4]. Group 1: Political Actions and Responses - President Trump signed an emergency military order to deploy 2,000 National Guard troops to Los Angeles and placed Marine Corps units on high alert, indicating a state of panic within the U.S. government [3]. - The protests erupted in response to U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement's raids in Latino communities, leading to violent confrontations between protesters and law enforcement [3][4]. - Trump's use of the Insurrection Act to bypass California's governor and mobilize military forces represents a significant intervention in state affairs, drawing sharp criticism from state leaders [4][6]. Group 2: Public Sentiment and Market Reaction - The protests reflect deep-seated anger and frustration among the public regarding immigration policies, with calls to "stop the persecution of immigrants" resonating across the streets of Los Angeles [3][6]. - Major cities like New York and Chicago have seen supportive protests, indicating a nationwide response to the crisis, which has also led to a significant drop in U.S. stock markets as investors seek safe havens like gold [6]. Group 3: Political Divisions and Future Implications - The crisis highlights the intense political divide between Trump and Democratic leaders, with accusations of authoritarianism and threats to federalize state governance [6]. - The underlying issues of immigration and political rivalry suggest that this crisis may lead to further political turmoil, challenging the stability of American democracy [6][8].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses a significant generational economic shift characterized by debt accumulation, social division, geopolitical tensions, and the potential collapse of the monetary system, suggesting that this is not just another economic recession but a transformative crisis that could reshape society [3]. Debt Cycle and Unsustainable Growth - Low debt costs, often due to low interest rates, lead borrowers to become complacent, resulting in increased leverage that becomes unsustainable as interest rates rise [5]. - The feedback loop created by debt-driven spending and growth can lead to asset price inflation, creating a false sense of security that ultimately results in a painful deleveraging process when debt repayment becomes burdensome [5][6]. - Central banks typically lower interest rates to stimulate borrowing and consumption, but this tool loses effectiveness when rates approach zero, leading to reliance on quantitative easing, which can distort price discovery and exacerbate inequality [6][7]. Internal Fractures: Social and Political Divisions - Historical patterns show that social disintegration often follows a buildup of tensions among various societal groups, leading to political dysfunction and economic inequality [9]. - Trust in institutions and leaders is crucial for societal cohesion; when this trust erodes, it can lead to a breakdown of the social contract and increased polarization [10][11]. - The rise of populism and extreme political rhetoric can hinder effective governance, making it difficult to address pressing issues like debt and education [10][11]. Geopolitical Deconstruction and Cold War 2.0 - The article highlights a strategic decoupling in global relations, particularly between the West and China, leading to a fragmented world order where nations prioritize security over efficiency in supply chains [13][14]. - Competition for technological supremacy and control over critical resources is intensifying, with countries increasingly seeking to reduce dependence on adversaries [14][15]. - The erosion of trust in the global financial system, particularly regarding the U.S. dollar, is prompting nations to explore alternative currencies and payment systems [17][18]. Currency Order Cracks - The current monetary system, heavily reliant on the U.S. dollar, is facing challenges due to persistent fiscal deficits and rising debt levels, leading to a loss of confidence in its stability [18][19]. - Countries are increasingly seeking to diversify away from dollar dependence, engaging in bilateral trade agreements and exploring digital currencies [20][21]. - The transition away from a dollar-centric system may not lead to immediate collapse but indicates a shift towards increased volatility and uncertainty in global finance [21]. Next Phase: Pain or Restructuring - The article emphasizes the importance of recognizing risks and opportunities in a volatile environment, advocating for a balanced approach to resource allocation [22][24]. - Diversification across asset classes, countries, and economic conditions is crucial for managing risk and seizing opportunities during periods of upheaval [24][25]. - Successful navigation of these challenges requires a thoughtful, adaptable strategy that prepares for multiple outcomes rather than relying on a single perspective [25][26].

Group 1 - The recent shooting incident involving two Minnesota state legislators and their spouses highlights a significant increase in political violence in the U.S., with over 9,000 threats recorded against congressional members last year [2] - The shooter was found with a "hit list" of over 70 political figures and activists, indicating a troubling trend of targeting public officials [2] - Political violence has been a historical issue in the U.S., but the current climate of increased threats and harassment poses a serious risk to democratic institutions [2] Group 2 - Multiple social factors contribute to the current atmosphere of political violence, including the anonymity of social media, reduced opportunities for diverse viewpoints due to remote work, and declining civic engagement [3] - The government's rhetoric and actions can exacerbate tensions, as seen with the controversial pardoning of individuals involved in the Capitol riots and the militarization of responses to protests [3] - A recent court ruling deemed the militarization of cities as illegal, suggesting that such actions can escalate violence and threaten public safety [3]