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桥水创始人达利欧警告美债超37万亿,危机或两三年内爆发
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-10-12 08:20
来源:新浪科技 【#美国政府债务突遭警告#】#桥水基金创始人称美债务状况非常危险# 在最新的采访中,桥水基金创始人瑞·达利欧警告称,美国政府债务的过快增长, 叠加日益激化的内外冲突,正在催生一种与二战前夕"非常类似"的氛围,对现有秩序构成严峻挑战。根据美国财政部的数据,截至2025年10月,美国国债 规模已超过37.86万亿美元。美媒报道称,在此之前,摩根大通CEO杰米·戴蒙、美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔都认为"美债危机迫在眉睫"。达利欧预测,在特 朗普政府的领导下,"债务引起的心脏病发作"最多在两三年内就将爆发。(券商中国) 他明确指出,由于"不可调和的分歧",一场"某种形 式的内战"正在美国发展。 达利欧警告称:"这些冲突最终会演变为各方力量的 对抗与测试。如果我们对此无动于衰,风险将会更 大。" 达利欧于1975年创立桥水基金,并因在公司内部推 行所谓的"极端透明"文化而闻名。 今年早些时候,达利欧出售了桥水基金的剩余股份并 退出董事会,完成了自2017年开始的逐步退出过 程。 债规模已超过37.86万亿美元。美国国会预算办公室 估计,2024年美国公共持有的债务总额相当于国内 生产总值(GDP)的99%。 ...
达利欧:美国债务增长过快,正在酝酿一种“非常类似”二战前的氛围
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen· 2025-10-10 08:08
桥水基金创始人达利欧警告称,美国政府债务的过快增长,叠加日益激化的内外冲突,正在催生一种与 二战前夕"非常类似"的氛围,对现有秩序构成严峻挑战。 达利欧在周五接受媒体的采访中将美国债务的快速攀升比作"动脉中的斑块",称其相对于收入的增长最 终会"挤压支出"。 除了债务问题,他表示,当前的财富不均和持续发酵的全球冲突也令人"深感忧虑"。 据美国国会预算办公室估计,去年公共持有债务占美国GDP的99%,预计到2034年将达到GDP的 116%,超过美国历史上任何时期。 债务危机警告升级 达利欧长期以来一直对美国螺旋式上升的债务风险发出警告。他将这一问题归咎于美国两党政客,并称 其为一颗"赤字/债务炸弹"。上月,他曾指出,飙升的债务正对"货币秩序构成威胁"。他呼吁采取增加 税收和削减开支并行的措施。 根据美国国会预算办公室(CBO)的估算,去年由公众持有的美国国债已达到国内生产总值(GDP) 的99%。该机构预测,到2034年,这一比例将攀升至116%,超过美国历史上任何时期。 在达利欧看来,债务危机并非孤立存在,而是与日益严峻的社会分裂和地缘政治风险交织在一起。他表 示,持续的全球冲突和财富不平等共同创造了一个" ...
美国迎来生死大考,特朗普下令出兵,大批美军随时待命
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-22 06:07
Core Viewpoint - The current political crisis in the United States, marked by President Trump's emergency military orders and widespread protests, signifies a potential reshaping of the American political landscape [1][3][4]. Group 1: Political Actions and Responses - President Trump signed an emergency military order to deploy 2,000 National Guard troops to Los Angeles and placed Marine Corps units on high alert, indicating a state of panic within the U.S. government [3]. - The protests erupted in response to U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement's raids in Latino communities, leading to violent confrontations between protesters and law enforcement [3][4]. - Trump's use of the Insurrection Act to bypass California's governor and mobilize military forces represents a significant intervention in state affairs, drawing sharp criticism from state leaders [4][6]. Group 2: Public Sentiment and Market Reaction - The protests reflect deep-seated anger and frustration among the public regarding immigration policies, with calls to "stop the persecution of immigrants" resonating across the streets of Los Angeles [3][6]. - Major cities like New York and Chicago have seen supportive protests, indicating a nationwide response to the crisis, which has also led to a significant drop in U.S. stock markets as investors seek safe havens like gold [6]. Group 3: Political Divisions and Future Implications - The crisis highlights the intense political divide between Trump and Democratic leaders, with accusations of authoritarianism and threats to federalize state governance [6]. - The underlying issues of immigration and political rivalry suggest that this crisis may lead to further political turmoil, challenging the stability of American democracy [6][8].
不只经济衰退,崩溃还将改变一代人
海豚投研· 2025-07-12 08:20
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses a significant generational economic shift characterized by debt accumulation, social division, geopolitical tensions, and the potential collapse of the monetary system, suggesting that this is not just another economic recession but a transformative crisis that could reshape society [3]. Debt Cycle and Unsustainable Growth - Low debt costs, often due to low interest rates, lead borrowers to become complacent, resulting in increased leverage that becomes unsustainable as interest rates rise [5]. - The feedback loop created by debt-driven spending and growth can lead to asset price inflation, creating a false sense of security that ultimately results in a painful deleveraging process when debt repayment becomes burdensome [5][6]. - Central banks typically lower interest rates to stimulate borrowing and consumption, but this tool loses effectiveness when rates approach zero, leading to reliance on quantitative easing, which can distort price discovery and exacerbate inequality [6][7]. Internal Fractures: Social and Political Divisions - Historical patterns show that social disintegration often follows a buildup of tensions among various societal groups, leading to political dysfunction and economic inequality [9]. - Trust in institutions and leaders is crucial for societal cohesion; when this trust erodes, it can lead to a breakdown of the social contract and increased polarization [10][11]. - The rise of populism and extreme political rhetoric can hinder effective governance, making it difficult to address pressing issues like debt and education [10][11]. Geopolitical Deconstruction and Cold War 2.0 - The article highlights a strategic decoupling in global relations, particularly between the West and China, leading to a fragmented world order where nations prioritize security over efficiency in supply chains [13][14]. - Competition for technological supremacy and control over critical resources is intensifying, with countries increasingly seeking to reduce dependence on adversaries [14][15]. - The erosion of trust in the global financial system, particularly regarding the U.S. dollar, is prompting nations to explore alternative currencies and payment systems [17][18]. Currency Order Cracks - The current monetary system, heavily reliant on the U.S. dollar, is facing challenges due to persistent fiscal deficits and rising debt levels, leading to a loss of confidence in its stability [18][19]. - Countries are increasingly seeking to diversify away from dollar dependence, engaging in bilateral trade agreements and exploring digital currencies [20][21]. - The transition away from a dollar-centric system may not lead to immediate collapse but indicates a shift towards increased volatility and uncertainty in global finance [21]. Next Phase: Pain or Restructuring - The article emphasizes the importance of recognizing risks and opportunities in a volatile environment, advocating for a balanced approach to resource allocation [22][24]. - Diversification across asset classes, countries, and economic conditions is crucial for managing risk and seizing opportunities during periods of upheaval [24][25]. - Successful navigation of these challenges requires a thoughtful, adaptable strategy that prepares for multiple outcomes rather than relying on a single perspective [25][26].
美媒:美政府公开煽动愤怒和分裂,成为恐吓氛围的催化剂
Huan Qiu Shi Bao· 2025-06-17 23:11
Group 1 - The recent shooting incident involving two Minnesota state legislators and their spouses highlights a significant increase in political violence in the U.S., with over 9,000 threats recorded against congressional members last year [2] - The shooter was found with a "hit list" of over 70 political figures and activists, indicating a troubling trend of targeting public officials [2] - Political violence has been a historical issue in the U.S., but the current climate of increased threats and harassment poses a serious risk to democratic institutions [2] Group 2 - Multiple social factors contribute to the current atmosphere of political violence, including the anonymity of social media, reduced opportunities for diverse viewpoints due to remote work, and declining civic engagement [3] - The government's rhetoric and actions can exacerbate tensions, as seen with the controversial pardoning of individuals involved in the Capitol riots and the militarization of responses to protests [3] - A recent court ruling deemed the militarization of cities as illegal, suggesting that such actions can escalate violence and threaten public safety [3]