英国央行仍持有近6000亿英镑的政府债务 市场普遍预计货币政策委员会将维持4%的基准利率不变，且鉴于通胀仍处于高位，可能会彻底打消2025年再降息的 希望。与之形成对比的是，美联储周四凌晨宣布自去年12月以来首次降息，并计划今年再降息两次。 英国央行将于北京时间周四19:00公布利率决议，预计届时将维持基准利率不变，与此同时，受国债市场波动加剧影 响，该央行料将放缓其量化紧缩（QT）计划。 政策指引 经济学家与投资者预计，英国央行货币政策委员会（MPC）将把年度国债持仓减持规模从1000亿英镑（约合960亿 美元）降至700亿英镑，官员们还可能限制长期英国国债的抛售规模。 自英国央行8月会议释放鹰派信号后，投资者已下调对进一步降息的押注。 目前，市场认为年底前再降息的概率仅为三分之一。若11月暂停降息，这将打破英国央行自2024年8月以来"每季度 降息一次"的节奏。 经济学家预计，货币政策委员会将对进一步降息保持谨慎态度。 今年8月，该委员会重申将采取"渐进且审慎的策略"，并警告称，进一步降息"将取决于潜在通缩压力持续缓解的程 度"。委员会还指出，自去年8月以来，基准利率已累计下调五次（每次25个基点），货币 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan (BOJ) is laying the groundwork for a potential interest rate hike, acknowledging the risk of broad-based inflation due to persistent food price increases [2][5] Group 1: BOJ's Policy Direction - The BOJ's recent comments indicate a shift towards a more hawkish stance, suggesting that the central bank is preparing to act on interest rates after a period of inaction [2][3] - BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda emphasized that the decision to raise rates will depend on the likelihood of core inflation reaching the 2% target, rather than waiting for it to be firmly established [2][3] - Analysts predict that the BOJ may raise rates in upcoming meetings, with a 54% chance of a hike to 0.75% in October and a 71% chance by December [3] Group 2: Economic Indicators and Inflation Risks - The BOJ has revised its inflation outlook, indicating that the risks to price stability are now balanced, contrasting with previous assessments that highlighted downside risks [4] - The central bank is particularly focused on the second-round effects of rising food prices, which could lead to broader inflationary pressures [5][6] - Recent data shows a significant increase in food prices, with 1,010 food and beverage items rising in August and over 3,000 expected to increase in October [5]

Group 1 - The continuous rise in prices of products such as tea and meat has pushed UK food inflation to its highest level in 17 months [1] - The British Retail Consortium reported a 4% year-on-year increase in food bills for July, marking the highest increase since February 2024 [1] - Overall commodity prices have risen for the second consecutive month, with a year-on-year increase of 0.7%, the highest level in over a year [1] Group 2 - Retailers are transferring costs to consumers in response to policy changes effective from April, despite a weak economic backdrop [3] - The CEO of the British Retail Consortium, Helen Dickinson, stated that the retail sector faced £7 billion (approximately $9.4 billion) in costs due to last year's budget, forcing most retailers to raise prices [3] - There are increasing speculations about further tax hikes in the autumn as the Chancellor of the Exchequer, Rachel Reeves, seeks to stabilize the UK's fragile public finances, with economists estimating a potential funding gap of up to £30 billion [3] Group 3 - Rising food costs are particularly sensitive to household inflation expectations, increasing the risk of a "second-round effect" where workers demand higher wages to offset rising living costs [3] - According to Rightmove, the pressure from rapidly rising rents on tenants has slightly eased, with the average monthly rent outside London rising by 3.9% to £1,365, the smallest annual increase since 2020 [3] - In London, the average monthly rent increased by 1.9%, reaching a historic high of £2,712 [3]

英国央行选择观望的背后，是对经济数据和风险因素的综合权衡。 19日，英国央行宣布将基准利率维持在4.25%不变，符合市场预期。 决议公布后，英镑汇率短线小幅走低。截至记者发稿，英镑对美元盘整于1.3410。英国国债收益率亦出 现小幅下行，对利率政策敏感的英国两年期国债收益率下跌1.3个基点至3.887%。 此次英国央行货币政策委员会（Monetary Policy Committee, MPC）以6票支持维持利率、3票支持降息25 个基点，通过了维持利率的决议。此前接受调查的数十位经济学家均预计英央行本次决议将按兵不动。 货币市场定价也显示，交易员几乎认定英国央行不会在本次会议上调整利率。 英国央行行长安德鲁·贝利（Andrew Bailey）在声明中称，尽管今天维持利率不变，但利率仍处于逐步 下降的趋势；当前全球形势难以预测，注意到英国劳动力市场出现疲软迹象，将密切关注其对通胀的影 响。 英国通胀仍然高企 英国央行5月曾如期降息25个基点，将基准利率从4.5%下调至4.25%；但降息后通胀意外反弹至一年多 来高位，同时中东地缘冲突升级推高了国际油价，使政策环境愈发复杂。决策者愈发忧虑所谓"第二轮 效应"，即 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of England is expected to maintain the benchmark interest rate at 4.25% amid high inflation, rising oil prices, and economic slowdown, with a consensus among economists indicating no rate cut in the immediate future [1][4]. Monetary Policy - The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) had a divided vote last month, with some members advocating for a 50 basis point cut while others supported maintaining the current rate [4]. - The MPC has lowered rates four times since August of the previous year, but the current economic data does not warrant drastic policy changes [5][12]. Economic Performance - Recent data shows the UK economy experienced its largest contraction in 18 months in April, with significant declines in exports to the US and record layoffs in May [10]. - Despite a strong growth of 0.7% in Q1, the MPC may revise its outlook on economic growth and inflation based on the latest data [12]. Geopolitical Risks - The escalation of tensions in the Middle East has replaced trade war concerns, with oil prices rising approximately 9% following recent conflicts, which could further impact UK inflation [13][16]. - Estimates suggest that a rise in Brent crude oil prices could increase UK inflation by 0.1 to 0.2 percentage points, potentially pushing inflation peaks higher [13].

这一数据主要反映出能源价格上限上调6.4%的影响——这是供应商被允许提高天然气和电力价格的最 高幅度。此外，消费者还面临水费、火车票价和地方政府税费上涨，各类基本生活成本全面攀升。 值得注意的是，此次价格大幅上涨恰逢两项政策同步实施：一是去年10月预算案中宣布的雇主支付的薪 酬税费上调260亿英镑(348亿美元)，二是最低工资标准近7%的涨幅。调查显示，相当比例的企业正计划 提高产品价格以维持利润空间。 英国国家统计局周三公布的数据显示，受多重价格上涨冲击，英国通胀率跃升至一年多来最高水平，超 过市场预期。在英国媒体所称的"糟糕四月"期间，英国家庭正面临一系列物价上涨压力。 数据显示，能源、水价及其他政府管控价格的上调，推动通胀率从2.6%攀升至3.5%，高于英国央行预 测的3.4%和经济学家预期的3.3%。英国央行密切关注的服务通胀率从4.7%加速至5.4%，超出央行此前 预测的5%。 当前通胀率远高于2%的目标水平，英国央行预计通胀率将在9月进一步加速至3.7%的峰值。这对英国首 相基尔.斯塔默来说是又一沉重打击，因为在唐纳德.特朗普关税政策拖累经济前景之际，英国家庭正面 临新一轮生活成本挤压。 尽管市场 ...