1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry: Oscillating with a slight upward trend [7] - Short - term outlook for each variety: - Steel: Oscillating [9] - Iron ore: Oscillating [10] - Scrap steel: Oscillating [11] - Coke: Oscillating [13] - Coking coal: Oscillating with a slight upward trend [14] - Glass: Oscillating [15] - Soda ash: Oscillating [18] - Manganese silicon: Oscillating [19] - Ferrosilicon: Oscillating [20] 2. Core Views of the Report - The release of the "Steel Industry Steady Growth Work Plan (2025 - 2026)" has a minor impact on the futures prices of the sector, but the prices of sector varieties still have support due to the marginal improvement in the industrial chain during the peak season and the market's expectations for the fourth - quarter important meetings [2] - Overall, in the short term, the "anti - involution" factor causes market fluctuations, but based on the improvement of the industrial chain fundamentals, the callback space is limited. With the positive expectations of domestic important meetings in the fourth quarter and overseas interest rate cuts, prices are expected to rise steadily [7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Iron Element - Iron ore: Shipments have declined but remain at a high level. The arrival volume has been affected by typhoons. Demand remains high, and the pre - National Day restocking expectation still exists. The fundamentals are healthy, and prices are supported [3] - Scrap steel: The fundamentals have marginally weakened, and prices mainly follow the fluctuations of finished products [3] 3.2 Carbon Element - Coke: The work plan has a certain negative impact on the furnace charge end, but before the National Day, the demand is well - supported, and with the cost support from the stable and rising coal prices, the price is expected to remain oscillating in the short term [3] - Coking coal: The "anti - involution" policy remains the main line. The fundamentals are healthy, and with the pre - National Day restocking by the mid - and downstream, the price is expected to oscillate with a slight upward trend in the short term [3] 3.3 Alloys - Manganese silicon: The short - term peak - season expectation supports the price to some extent, but the future supply - demand outlook is pessimistic, and the price may decline after the peak season [3] - Ferrosilicon: The peak - season expectation supports the price, but the future supply - demand relationship will tend to be loose, and the price may face downward pressure after the peak season [3] 3.4 Glass - The current demand is weak, but there are peak - season and policy expectations. After the mid - stream destocking, there may be another round of oscillations. In the long term, market - oriented capacity reduction is needed, and if prices return to fundamental trading, they are expected to decline oscillatingly [4] 3.5 Soda Ash - The supply - surplus pattern remains unchanged. After the decline in the futures price, the spot - futures trading volume has slightly increased, and the price is expected to oscillate widely in the future. In the long term, the price center will decline to promote capacity reduction [7] 3.6 Specific Analysis of Each Variety - Steel: Spot market transactions are generally weak. The peak - season demand recovery is less than expected, and inventories are at a moderately high level. The short - term futures price is expected to oscillate widely [9] - Iron ore: Overseas shipments have slightly declined, and the arrival volume has increased. Demand is supported in the short term, and inventories are at a moderate level. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term [9] - Scrap steel: Supply has increased slightly, demand has decreased, and inventories have increased slightly. The fundamentals have marginally weakened, and prices follow finished products [11] - Coke: Supply remains stable at a high level, and demand is strongly supported. The price is expected to remain oscillating in the short term [13] - Coking coal: Supply recovery is slow, and demand is strong. The price is expected to oscillate with a slight upward trend in the short term [14] - Glass: Demand is in the off - season, and supply has uncertainties. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term and decline in the long term [15] - Soda ash: Supply capacity has not been cleared, and demand is stable with a slight increase. The price is expected to oscillate [18] - Manganese silicon: Market supply pressure is increasing, and the future price may decline [19] - Ferrosilicon: Supply is increasing, and demand growth is limited. The price may face downward pressure after the peak season [20]

Group 1: Market Overview - The main contracts show a bearish sentiment with 23 contracts rising and 50 contracts falling, indicating a concentration of trading activity in declining varieties [2] - Significant declines were observed in crude oil (-3.69%), rubber board (-3.51%), and fuel oil (-3.40%), likely influenced by macroeconomic concerns or changes in supply-demand fundamentals [6] Group 2: Key Commodity Movements - Leading gainers included the China Securities 1000 (+2.39%), No. 20 rubber (+2.16%), and urea (+1.95%), suggesting strong interest in these commodities [5] - The most significant inflows were seen in China Securities 1000 (30.84 million), indicating a strong focus from major funds [8] Group 3: Position Changes - Notable increases in open interest were recorded for apple (+40.06%), caustic soda (+16.87%), and焦炭 (+13.02%), suggesting new funds entering the market [11] - Conversely, significant reductions in open interest were noted for short rice (-6.59%) and rubber board (-23.08%), indicating potential fund withdrawals [11] Group 4: Agricultural Commodities - China's imports of Brazilian soybeans are expected to reach 12 million tons in May, improving domestic soybean supply significantly [12] - The oil factory operating rate is anticipated to rise, with a projected soybean crushing volume of 8.3 million tons in May, driven by high supply pressure and increased processing [12] Group 5: Global Economic Indicators - The global manufacturing PMI fell to 49.1%, indicating increased economic downward pressure, with the index remaining below 50% for two consecutive months [15] - China's manufacturing PMI also decreased to 50.4, reflecting a slowdown in economic expansion [13] Group 6: Palm Oil Market Insights - Malaysia's palm oil production is estimated to increase by 24.62% in April, with total production reaching 1.73 million tons, indicating a supply-side pressure on prices [16] - The palm oil market is expected to face downward pressure due to increased production and weak demand, with prices closing at 7974 yuan/ton [29]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The geopolitical situation and sanctions were the main drivers of the previous crude oil rebound. The overnight Russia-Ukraine war negotiation eased the pressure on oil supply, but the risks of economic recession and weak demand have not been eliminated. Short-term trading is recommended [1]. - The domestic soda ash market is stable, with prices firm, production and operation rates increasing, and downstream demand average. The 05 contract of soda ash is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see or conduct short-term long trades [2]. - The fundamentals of coke have been alleviated, but the demand outlook is poor, and there are still voices of a twelfth round of price cuts. The short-term futures market is expected to fluctuate [4]. - Steel prices may fluctuate strongly in the short term. Although the steel market has seen an increase in volume and price, the demand sustainability is insufficient [5]. - The national pig price is adjusting narrowly. It is recommended to conduct short-term long trades on near-month contracts and lay out long positions on the LH2509 contract in the medium and long term [5]. - The price of palm oil is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term. Attention should be paid to international biodiesel policies, high-frequency supply and demand data from the origin, and domestic inventory changes [6]. - The price of PTA may fluctuate in the short term. It is recommended to reduce long positions and conduct short-term trades [7]. - The 05 contract of methanol is expected to fluctuate in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see or conduct short-term long trades [8]. 3. Summary by Variety Crude Oil - As of the week ending March 21, 2025, US commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 4.6 million barrels, gasoline inventories decreased by 3.3 million barrels, and distillate inventories decreased by 1.3 million barrels [1]. - The Russia-US talks achieved five main results, which eased the pressure on oil supply [1]. - In April, OPEC+ will gradually withdraw from voluntary production cuts, and Trump's tariff measures may impact the market again [1]. Soda Ash - The mainstream price of heavy soda ash in China is 1,510 yuan/ton, and the operation rate is 85.3%, a 2.8% increase from the previous day [2]. - The total inventory of soda ash manufacturers is 1.6878 million tons, a 2.73% decrease from the previous period [2]. - The operation rate of float glass is 75.76%, a 0.34% decrease from the previous week [2]. Coke - The daily output of coke from 247 steel mills increased by 0.14 to 47.42, and the capacity utilization rate increased by 0.26% to 87.46% [4]. - Coke inventories decreased by 15.58 to 662.83, and the available days decreased by 0.79 to 12.84 days [4]. - The eleventh round of price cuts has been implemented, and there are still voices of a twelfth round of price cuts [4]. Rebar - On March 25, the domestic building materials market prices continued to rise, and the plate market prices were mixed [5]. - The average price of rebar in major cities across the country was 3,382 yuan/ton, a 17 yuan/ton increase from the previous trading day [5]. - The steel market has seen an increase in volume and price, but the demand sustainability is insufficient [5]. Pig - On March 25, the average price of pork in the national agricultural product wholesale market was 20.68 yuan/kg, a 1.8% decrease from the previous day [5]. - The national pig price is adjusting narrowly, and it is recommended to conduct short-term long trades on near-month contracts and lay out long positions on the LH2509 contract in the medium and long term [5]. Palm Oil - From March 1 - 25, the export volume of Malaysian palm oil decreased by 8.08% and 8.74% respectively [6]. - From March 1 - 20, the production of Malaysian palm oil increased by 9.48% month-on-month [6]. - The price of palm oil is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [6]. PTA - The current CFR price of PX is 844 US dollars/ton, and the PX - N is 204 US dollars/ton [7]. - The polyester operation rate increased by 2.6% to 91.5%, and the comprehensive operation rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms decreased by 1% to 73.0% [7]. - The price of PTA may fluctuate in the short term, and it is recommended to reduce long positions and conduct short-term trades [7]. Methanol - The weekly signing volume of methanol sample production enterprises in the northwest region was 63,500 tons, a decrease of 3,300 tons from the previous week [8]. - The market price of methanol in Jiangsu Taicang was 2,677 yuan/ton, a decrease of 43 yuan/ton [8]. - The 05 contract of methanol is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see or conduct short-term long trades [8].