Core Viewpoint - The geopolitical situation and interest rate cut expectations are in a tug-of-war, leading to a stable overnight performance in zinc prices, with tight supply and declining processing fees impacting the market dynamics [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - Overnight London zinc showed weak fluctuations, closing at $3078 per ton, with a trading volume of 7997 lots, a decrease of 497 lots, and an open interest increase of 449 lots to 227,461 lots [1]. - The Shanghai zinc market also experienced weak fluctuations, with the main contract closing at 23,025 yuan per ton, down 50 yuan, a decline of 0.22% [1]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Domestic and international ore supply is tightening, with processing fees reduced by 1250 yuan per metal ton since early September, indicating a reality of supply tightness [2]. - The actual output of smelters in November did not meet expectations due to raw material supply constraints and low processing fees affecting profits, with further production declines expected in December [2]. - Domestic social inventory continues to decrease, providing support for zinc prices, but demand remains lackluster, particularly in the galvanizing sector where operating rates are average [2]. Group 3: Industry Challenges - Environmental policies in northern regions are restricting the operation of heavy trucks below the National VI standard, leading to extended raw material and finished product turnover cycles, which is expected to keep operating levels stable [2]. - In the die-casting zinc alloy sector, poor end-user demand has resulted in inventory buildup, with high zinc prices suppressing consumption and downstream buyers only maintaining essential purchases [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral for L and PP; Inter - term: Reverse spread for L01 - L05 and PP01 - PP05; Inter - variety: None [4] Core View - Newly commissioned polyolefin plants are continuously ramping up production, putting pressure on the polyolefin market. PE and PP prices are affected by cost, supply, and demand factors, with limited upward space and weak fundamentals [1][3] Summary by Directory 1. Market News and Key Data - **Price and Basis**: L main contract closed at 6,985 yuan/ton (-39), PP main contract at 6,657 yuan/ton (-42). LL spot prices in North China and East China were 6,980 yuan/ton (+30) and 7,060 yuan/ton (+10) respectively. PP spot price in East China was 6,610 yuan/ton (+0). LL basis in North China was -5 yuan/ton (+69), in East China was 75 yuan/ton (+49), and PP basis in East China was -47 yuan/ton (+42) [2] - **Upstream Supply**: PE operating rate was 81.5% (-0.3%), PP operating rate was 75.9% (-2.3%) [2] - **Production Profit**: PE oil - based production profit was 271.3 yuan/ton (+33.5), PP oil - based production profit was -408.7 yuan/ton (+33.5), and PDH - based PP production profit was 9.2 yuan/ton (-57.2) [2] - **Imports and Exports**: LL import profit was -36.9 yuan/ton (+11.9), PP import profit was -305.8 yuan/ton (+11.6), and PP export profit was -15.3 US dollars/ton (-1.5) [2] - **Downstream Demand**: PE downstream agricultural film operating rate was 47.1% (+4.2%), PE downstream packaging film operating rate was 52.6% (+0.4%), PP downstream woven bag operating rate was 44.4% (+0.1%), and PP downstream BOPP film operating rate was 61.4% (+0.2%) [2] 2. Market Analysis - **PE**: OPEC+ has a production increase plan, increasing the expectation of supply surplus and weakening demand. International oil prices are falling, weakening the cost support for PE. Supply is expected to increase due to reduced maintenance, concentrated imports, and new plant production. Demand is limited, with downstream purchasing being cautious. PE prices are in short - term consolidation with limited upside [3] - **PP**: International oil prices and propane prices are falling, weakening cost support. Although temporary maintenance has eased supply pressure to some extent, new plant production still poses pressure. Downstream demand is slowly recovering with limited growth. The weak supply - demand situation persists, and price increase sustainability may be limited [3] 3. Strategy - **Unilateral**: Neutral for L and PP - **Inter - term**: Reverse spread for L01 - L05 and PP01 - PP05 - **Inter - variety**: None [4]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not available Core Views - The global economic slowdown and supply - demand imbalances are putting pressure on various commodity markets, with different commodities showing different trends based on their specific supply - demand fundamentals and external factors such as trade negotiations and policy changes [2][3][5] Summary by Commodity Crude Oil - The World Bank cut the 2025 global economic growth forecast to 2.3%, 0.4% lower than the previous prediction, suppressing oil price increases. EIA raised the 2025 crude market surplus expectation. Overall, supply surplus is pressuring the crude market. Consider short - selling when prices are relatively high. Monitor the progress of US - Iran, Russia - Ukraine, and China - US negotiations [2] 焦炭 - On June 10, the coke market price was weak. After the price cut, coke producers' profits are near the break - even point, and there is still room for price decline. Steel mills may initiate a fourth round of price cuts. It is recommended to sell on rebounds [3] Treasury Bonds - On June 11, yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds rose slightly at the opening. The bond market may face downward pressure at the opening. With economic downward pressure and the need for counter - cyclical adjustment, the bond market has some support. Adopt a mid - term wide - range oscillatory and slightly bullish approach [5] Rebar - On June 10, domestic steel market prices continued to decline. Steel demand in the off - season remains weak, and both supply and demand in the steel market are weak. Steel prices may continue to oscillate weakly in a narrow range [5] Silver - The progress of China - US trade consultations affects market pricing of US inflation and future interest - rate cut expectations. If the negotiations go well, silver's upward momentum may strengthen. Wait for pull - backs to go long [6] Iron Ore - From June 2nd to 8th, global iron ore shipments increased. The iron ore market is weakly stable. With weak demand from steel mills in the off - season and increasing supply, ore prices are under pressure. However, the deep discount of futures prices provides some support. Ore prices are expected to oscillate at low levels [7] Rubber - Thai raw material prices are rising, and Hainan's rubber collection volume has increased. The natural rubber market has rebounded with commodities due to macro factors. Supply is expected to increase, and demand shows no signs of improvement. The market is expected to oscillate and consolidate [8] Gold - As trade negotiations progress, risk - aversion sentiment has weakened. Market focus has shifted to the US economy and future interest - rate cut expectations. Gold and silver may show a divergent trend. Adopt a mid - term high - level oscillatory and slightly bullish approach for gold [10] PTA - PTA supply is expected to increase with new device startups. Polyester's operating load may decline in June. PTA's supply - demand outlook is weakening. PX supply is increasing, but PXN is expected to remain strong. Adopt a high - level short - selling strategy for PTA [10] Live Pigs - Pig prices are rising steadily in some northern regions. Some breeding enterprises are reducing supply to support prices, and second - fattening enthusiasm has increased slightly. Suggest 09 - 01 contract reverse spreads or short - term long positions in the 01 contract. Farmers can sell hedging according to their sales schedules [11] Palm Oil - Malaysia's MPOB report is neutral. Domestic palm oil inventory is increasing, and the price is expected to oscillate within a range. Monitor international biodiesel policies, high - frequency supply - demand data, and domestic inventory changes [11] Soybeans - Brazil's soybean production and related data forecasts remain unchanged. Domestic soybeans are quiet, and prices are expected to oscillate slightly upward. Hold long positions [12] Methanol - The methanol market in the interior is strong, and the port market's basis is strengthening. With stable coal prices, high domestic methanol operating rates, and increasing downstream demand, the port may continue to accumulate inventory. The methanol 09 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see or short on rebounds [13] Soda Ash - The domestic soda ash market is weakly stable. Supply remains high, and downstream demand is tepid. The soda ash 09 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see or short on a short - term basis [14] PVC - PVC supply remains high, and profits are poor. Cost support is strengthening, and demand is stable. The domestic PVC market price is expected to oscillate in a small range. It is recommended to wait and see [15]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The geopolitical situation and sanctions were the main drivers of the previous crude oil rebound. The overnight Russia-Ukraine war negotiation eased the pressure on oil supply, but the risks of economic recession and weak demand have not been eliminated. Short-term trading is recommended [1]. - The domestic soda ash market is stable, with prices firm, production and operation rates increasing, and downstream demand average. The 05 contract of soda ash is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see or conduct short-term long trades [2]. - The fundamentals of coke have been alleviated, but the demand outlook is poor, and there are still voices of a twelfth round of price cuts. The short-term futures market is expected to fluctuate [4]. - Steel prices may fluctuate strongly in the short term. Although the steel market has seen an increase in volume and price, the demand sustainability is insufficient [5]. - The national pig price is adjusting narrowly. It is recommended to conduct short-term long trades on near-month contracts and lay out long positions on the LH2509 contract in the medium and long term [5]. - The price of palm oil is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term. Attention should be paid to international biodiesel policies, high-frequency supply and demand data from the origin, and domestic inventory changes [6]. - The price of PTA may fluctuate in the short term. It is recommended to reduce long positions and conduct short-term trades [7]. - The 05 contract of methanol is expected to fluctuate in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see or conduct short-term long trades [8]. 3. Summary by Variety Crude Oil - As of the week ending March 21, 2025, US commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 4.6 million barrels, gasoline inventories decreased by 3.3 million barrels, and distillate inventories decreased by 1.3 million barrels [1]. - The Russia-US talks achieved five main results, which eased the pressure on oil supply [1]. - In April, OPEC+ will gradually withdraw from voluntary production cuts, and Trump's tariff measures may impact the market again [1]. Soda Ash - The mainstream price of heavy soda ash in China is 1,510 yuan/ton, and the operation rate is 85.3%, a 2.8% increase from the previous day [2]. - The total inventory of soda ash manufacturers is 1.6878 million tons, a 2.73% decrease from the previous period [2]. - The operation rate of float glass is 75.76%, a 0.34% decrease from the previous week [2]. Coke - The daily output of coke from 247 steel mills increased by 0.14 to 47.42, and the capacity utilization rate increased by 0.26% to 87.46% [4]. - Coke inventories decreased by 15.58 to 662.83, and the available days decreased by 0.79 to 12.84 days [4]. - The eleventh round of price cuts has been implemented, and there are still voices of a twelfth round of price cuts [4]. Rebar - On March 25, the domestic building materials market prices continued to rise, and the plate market prices were mixed [5]. - The average price of rebar in major cities across the country was 3,382 yuan/ton, a 17 yuan/ton increase from the previous trading day [5]. - The steel market has seen an increase in volume and price, but the demand sustainability is insufficient [5]. Pig - On March 25, the average price of pork in the national agricultural product wholesale market was 20.68 yuan/kg, a 1.8% decrease from the previous day [5]. - The national pig price is adjusting narrowly, and it is recommended to conduct short-term long trades on near-month contracts and lay out long positions on the LH2509 contract in the medium and long term [5]. Palm Oil - From March 1 - 25, the export volume of Malaysian palm oil decreased by 8.08% and 8.74% respectively [6]. - From March 1 - 20, the production of Malaysian palm oil increased by 9.48% month-on-month [6]. - The price of palm oil is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [6]. PTA - The current CFR price of PX is 844 US dollars/ton, and the PX - N is 204 US dollars/ton [7]. - The polyester operation rate increased by 2.6% to 91.5%, and the comprehensive operation rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms decreased by 1% to 73.0% [7]. - The price of PTA may fluctuate in the short term, and it is recommended to reduce long positions and conduct short-term trades [7]. Methanol - The weekly signing volume of methanol sample production enterprises in the northwest region was 63,500 tons, a decrease of 3,300 tons from the previous week [8]. - The market price of methanol in Jiangsu Taicang was 2,677 yuan/ton, a decrease of 43 yuan/ton [8]. - The 05 contract of methanol is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see or conduct short-term long trades [8].