Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral for L and PP; Inter - term: Reverse spread for L01 - L05 and PP01 - PP05; Inter - variety: None [4] Core View - Newly commissioned polyolefin plants are continuously ramping up production, putting pressure on the polyolefin market. PE and PP prices are affected by cost, supply, and demand factors, with limited upward space and weak fundamentals [1][3] Summary by Directory 1. Market News and Key Data - **Price and Basis**: L main contract closed at 6,985 yuan/ton (-39), PP main contract at 6,657 yuan/ton (-42). LL spot prices in North China and East China were 6,980 yuan/ton (+30) and 7,060 yuan/ton (+10) respectively. PP spot price in East China was 6,610 yuan/ton (+0). LL basis in North China was -5 yuan/ton (+69), in East China was 75 yuan/ton (+49), and PP basis in East China was -47 yuan/ton (+42) [2] - **Upstream Supply**: PE operating rate was 81.5% (-0.3%), PP operating rate was 75.9% (-2.3%) [2] - **Production Profit**: PE oil - based production profit was 271.3 yuan/ton (+33.5), PP oil - based production profit was -408.7 yuan/ton (+33.5), and PDH - based PP production profit was 9.2 yuan/ton (-57.2) [2] - **Imports and Exports**: LL import profit was -36.9 yuan/ton (+11.9), PP import profit was -305.8 yuan/ton (+11.6), and PP export profit was -15.3 US dollars/ton (-1.5) [2] - **Downstream Demand**: PE downstream agricultural film operating rate was 47.1% (+4.2%), PE downstream packaging film operating rate was 52.6% (+0.4%), PP downstream woven bag operating rate was 44.4% (+0.1%), and PP downstream BOPP film operating rate was 61.4% (+0.2%) [2] 2. Market Analysis - **PE**: OPEC+ has a production increase plan, increasing the expectation of supply surplus and weakening demand. International oil prices are falling, weakening the cost support for PE. Supply is expected to increase due to reduced maintenance, concentrated imports, and new plant production. Demand is limited, with downstream purchasing being cautious. PE prices are in short - term consolidation with limited upside [3] - **PP**: International oil prices and propane prices are falling, weakening cost support. Although temporary maintenance has eased supply pressure to some extent, new plant production still poses pressure. Downstream demand is slowly recovering with limited growth. The weak supply - demand situation persists, and price increase sustainability may be limited [3] 3. Strategy - **Unilateral**: Neutral for L and PP - **Inter - term**: Reverse spread for L01 - L05 and PP01 - PP05 - **Inter - variety**: None [4]

今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【短评-原油】世界银行周二将2025年全球经济增长预测下 调至2.3%，比前次预测下调0.4%。世界银行认为，更高的关税 和不确定加剧对几乎所有的经济体都构成了"重大阻力"。 EIA6月份《短期能源展望》：预计今年美国原油日均产量将略 高于1340万桶，2026年日均产量将略低于1340万桶；预计今年 全球石油日需求量将增长80万桶，2026年将增长110万桶，预计 今年全球石油日产量将增加160万桶，2026年将增加80万桶；美 国石油学会数据显示，截止2025年6月6日当周，美国商业原油 库存减少37万桶；同期美国汽油库存增加296.9万桶，今年至 今，美国原油库存累计增加了1800万桶以上。评：世界银行下 调全球经济预测抑制了油价涨势，国际油价从两个月以来最高 点适度回落。EIA上调了2025年原油市场过剩预期，其数据显示 今年前五个月全球石油库存增加，并将在预测期内继续增长,承 压原油市场。整体上，供应过剩施压原油市场。关注美伊谈判 和俄乌谈判进展情况，中美谈判进展。阶段性偏高估沽空。 【短评-焦炭】6月10日，市场价格偏弱运行，上周五河 北、山东主流钢厂针对焦炭价格价格下 ...

重点品种： 今 日 早 评 【短评-原油】美国石油学会数据显示，截止2025年3月21 日当周，美国商业原油库存减少460万桶；同期美国汽油库存减 少330万桶；馏分油库存减少130万桶。根据俄罗斯克里姆林宫 网站25日公布的通报，俄美会谈主要成果包括五项：俄美双方 同意确保落实黑海港口农产品外运协议、美国推动恢复俄罗斯 农产品和化肥向世界市场出口准入、俄美为停止打击俄罗斯和 乌克兰能源设施制定措施、俄美欢迎第三方就落实能源和海事 协议开展斡旋、俄美将继续致力于实现持久和平。评：地缘和 制裁是前期原油反弹的主要动力。隔夜有关俄乌战争谈判缓解 了石油供应的压力，经济衰退及需求疲弱的风险也暂时退场不 过并未消除，4月份随着欧佩克+逐步退出自愿减产的执行及特 朗普关税举措可能会再次冲击市场。短线交易为佳。 【短评-纯碱】全国重质纯碱主流价1510元/吨，价格较 稳；纯碱开工85.3%，环比上日+2.8%；金山、江苏井神检修结 束，盐湖、青海昆仑设备恢复；连云港碱业110万吨/年新产能 预期一季度投产；纯碱厂家总库存168.78万吨，环比下降 2.73%；浮法玻璃开工率75.76%，周度-0.34%；全国浮法玻璃均 ...