| | | | | 申银万国期货研究所 唐广华（从业资格号：F3010997；交易咨询号：Z0011162） tanggh@sywgqh.com.cn 021-50586292 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | TS2606 | TS2609 | TF2606 | TF2609 | T2606 | T2609 | TL2606 | TL2609 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 102.432 | 102.464 | 106.005 | 105.845 | 108.370 | 108.370 | 112.07 | 111.86 | | | 前日收盘价 | 102.458 | 102.488 | 105.980 | 105.815 | 108.480 | 108.490 | 112.09 | 111.87 | | | 涨跌 | -0.026 | -0.024 | 0.025 | 0.030 | -0.110 | -0.120 | -0.020 | -0.010 | | | 涨跌幅 | -0.0 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Lingbao Gold (03330.HK) is experiencing a downturn due to macroeconomic conditions, market sentiment, and overall sector pullback [3] - The stock price opened lower today, reporting a decline of 3.64% at 23.84 HKD, despite a cumulative increase of 11.30% over the past five days and a year-to-date rise of 33.11%, indicating profit-taking ahead of the holiday [4] - The gold sector is facing a general pullback, with the Hong Kong precious metals sector down approximately 3%, affecting Lingbao Gold as part of this sector [7] Group 2 - The macroeconomic environment is influenced by stronger-than-expected U.S. non-farm payroll data, which has dampened interest rate cut expectations and led to a rebound in the U.S. dollar index, potentially causing gold prices to enter a high-level fluctuation phase [5] - As the Chinese New Year approaches, there is an increase in risk-averse sentiment among investors, leading to a tendency to reduce positions to avoid external market volatility during the holiday [6] - Despite the short-term adjustments, Lingbao Gold's fundamentals remain supportive, with a projected net profit increase of 110%-140% for 2024 (exceeding 600 million HKD), and the recent inclusion of Lingbao Jinyuan Mining into a provincial state-owned asset integration platform is expected to enhance regional resource collaboration efficiency [8]

2026 年 2 月 12 日 商 品 研 究 LLDPE：内外盘接近停摆，资金避险偏震荡市 周富强 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0023304 zhoufuqiang@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 LLDPE 基本面数据 | 期 货 | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨日成交 | 持仓变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | L2605 | 6787 | 0.18% | 315041 | -8697 | | 基差月差变化 | | 昨日价差 | | 前日价差 | | | | 05合约基差 | -217 | | -205 | | | | 05-09合约价差 | -49 | | -51 | | | 重要现货价格 | | 昨日价格 | （元/吨） | 前日价格 | （元/吨） | | | 华北 | 6570 | | 6570 | | | | 华东 | 6650 | | 6650 | | | | 华南 | 6650 | | 6650 | | 资料来源：卓创资讯，国泰君安期货 原料端原油价格回落企稳，中东地缘局势难定，乙烯单体环节偏弱，PE 乙烯工艺利润有所修复。近端 ...

ccmn沪镍走势：今日午盘后沪期镍震荡下跌，沪期镍主力月2603合约开盘报134520元/吨，盘中最高报 134900元/吨，最低价报132600元/吨，收盘报133350元/吨，下跌260元/吨，跌幅为0.19%，沪镍主力月 2603主力合约成交量281436手。 据长江有色属网统计：2月10日ccmn长江综合1#镍价135100元/吨-144100元/吨，均价报139600元/吨，较 前一日价格下跌700元，长江现货1#镍报134650元/吨-144650元/吨，均价报139650元/吨，较前一日价格 下跌700元，广东现货镍报143150元/吨-143550元/吨，均价报143350元/吨，较前一日价格下跌700元。 ccmn镍市分析：宏观面，今日，国内镍价呈现震荡偏弱下行走势，精准契合节前有色板块普遍走弱的 市场节奏，核心受宏观情绪降温、资金避险离场、春节淡季三重因素协同驱动。具体来看，宏观面受美 元指数低位震荡反弹、美债收益率小幅上行影响，以美元计价的大宗商品风险偏好受到压制，资金从有 色板块获利了结；基本面随着春节临近，下游备货已彻底进入尾声，刚需收缩叠加市场观望情绪升温， 让镍价失去向上支撑；资 ...

Core Viewpoint - The polyethylene (PE) futures market has experienced a cooling sentiment, with prices under pressure and a weekly decline of 2.88%, closing at 6812 points, influenced by weakening crude oil prices and a supply-demand imbalance as the Chinese New Year approaches [5][23]. Supply Side - The supply side has seen a slight decrease in the number of shutdowns, with a total of approximately 370,000 tons of production capacity affected by maintenance. The operating rate for the PE industry is at 85.91%, an increase of 0.56% week-on-week, while weekly production reached 712,400 tons, up by 0.64% [8][26]. - China remains a net importer of PE, with a decrease in foreign offers and low purchasing intentions from importers. The cumulative PE export volume is 503,800 tons, a year-on-year increase of 9,510 tons, while imports have decreased to 5,446,300 tons, down by 237,700 tons year-on-year [10][28]. Demand Side - Demand is entering a seasonal lull as the Chinese New Year approaches, with downstream factories shutting down, leading to a decrease in overall operating rates to 33.73%, down by 4.03% [11][29]. - In the agricultural film sector, the operating rate is at 30.18%, down by 4.38%, while the PE packaging film sector is at 38.82%, down by 3.25%. The PE pipe sector has an operating rate of 23.67%, down by 4.16% [13][31]. Inventory - Domestic PE inventory has shown a significant accumulation in production enterprises, with a total inventory of 379,700 tons, an increase of 56,700 tons week-on-week. Trade inventories have slightly decreased to 23,200 tons [14][32]. Cost Side - The cost side remains uncertain due to geopolitical factors affecting crude oil prices. The upcoming negotiations between the U.S. and Iran may influence oil prices, but current trends show limited support for PE costs. The volatility in propylene and methanol futures prices has also decreased [16][34]. Summary - In the short term, the PE market is expected to lean towards a supply strong and demand weak scenario, with high production rates and accumulating inventories. The market sentiment is cautious due to the upcoming holiday and potential geopolitical risks, suggesting a recommendation for reduced positions ahead of the holiday [19][37].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint - The market is dominated by a weak trend, and the tight - balance logic temporarily fails. It is advisable to avoid risks of sharp fluctuations [4] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Performance - Yesterday, the main contract of lithium carbonate futures hit the daily limit during the session and then opened, closing at 132,320 yuan/ton. The trading volume increased to 531,700 lots, and the open interest decreased to 329,800 lots. The net short position of the main funds continued, and the long - short ratio increased slightly month - on - month. The daily inventory of lithium carbonate on the GME was 33,787 lots, a decrease of 327 lots from the previous day. The average price of SMM electric carbon was 144,000 yuan/ton, and the price difference between electric carbon and industrial carbon was 3,500 yuan/ton [2] Supply - Last week, raw material prices in the market generally increased. This week, the total weekly operating rate of SMM lithium carbonate was 47.29% (-2.21%). Except for lithium mica, the operating rates of other processes decreased. The weekly output of SMM lithium carbonate was 20,744 tons (-825 tons) [3] Demand - The production schedule of the lithium - battery downstream in February decreased month - on - month. This week, the output of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials decreased slightly month - on - month, and the inventory was destocked. As of January 18, the penetration rate of new - energy vehicle sales by SMM rose to 55.6%, remaining at a relatively high level. Energy - storage cells performed strongly, with strong production and sales and low inventory [3] Inventory - Last week, the social inventory of the four - location samples by SMM decreased by 5.6% (-2,450 tons) month - on - month. This week, the sample weekly inventory decreased by 2,019 tons to 105,463 tons, and the total inventory days increased to 30 days, with an increase in inventory days at each link [3] Macro Policy - On the demand side, subsidies for trading in old cars for new ones and battery export tax - rebate policies stimulate terminal consumption and improve macro - liquidity. On the supply side, on January 15, the National Development and Reform Commission proposed to introduce management measures for the comprehensive utilization of new - energy vehicle power batteries, which will improve the recycling threshold and eliminate backward production capacity, optimizing the domestic supply structure and raising the cost - support center in the long term. Industrial plans, such as the Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Plan, the key points of the "15th Five - Year Plan" for energy storage, and a series of deployments at the Central Economic Work Conference, form synergistic benefits to support long - term supply - demand balance. The central bank's structural interest - rate cuts indirectly strengthen the long - term macro - favorable atmosphere [4]

再看半导体板块，兆易创新跌停，江波龙跌超10%，其实是前期AI炒作热度退潮，加上部分公司业绩预 期没跟上，资金暂时撤离。但帮主得说句实在的，半导体的产业趋势没坏，只是短期波动，就像2023年 那波调整，跌下去之后很快又反弹回来，关键看核心公司的订单和技术突破。 而电网设备为啥能逆势狂飙？这里藏着真需求！AI算力需求爆炸，变压器成了"算力心脏"，北美电荒让 中国电网设备成了香饽饽，加上国内4万亿的电网投资规划，订单都排到后年了，这种有政策+需求双 重支撑的板块，自然能扛住市场下跌。白酒股表现坚挺也不意外，春节消费旺季要来了，加上资金避险 需求，这类刚需品种总能稳住阵脚，这和2019年春节前的行情如出一辙。 今天盘面属实让人揪心，三大指数全跌超2%，4600多只个股绿油油一片，资源股跌停板上堆着几百亿 封单，手里持仓的朋友是不是越看越慌，甚至想割肉离场？ 但别急着emo，盘面里藏着大反差——电网设备10多股涨停，白酒股也扛住了下跌，这到底是为啥？咱 们先把下跌的账算明白。核心就是大宗商品被集体抛售，美联储鹰派预期越来越强，美元走强让贵金 属、油气这些品种失了吸引力，加上前期资源股涨得太猛，获利盘扎堆兑现，湖南白银 ...

【ccmn.cn铅期货市场】隔夜伦铅收跌，开盘报2027美元/吨，高点报2060美元，低点报2005.5美元，尾 盘收于2011美元，跌16美元，跌幅0.79%；成交量9486手，持仓量167867手。长江铅业网(pb.ccmn.cn)今 日现货铅价行情预估：今日铅价将震荡下跌，此次铅价下跌系海外宏观资金面扰动、国内节前需求真 空、市场资金虹吸效应三重共振所致，叠加产业端供需双弱的格局，铅价短期丧失上行动力，核心利空 集中于资金与需求端，仅靠成本支撑限制下行空间。而内外宏观面的双重利空成为主要压制力，金融属 性层面的拖累远大于产业基本面影响，美元指数盘中冲高至 96.66 对伦铅形成承压，美股科技股重挫引 发市场风险偏好回落，资金从基本金属非强势品种撤离，同时大宗商品市场资金向贵金属、铜锡等强势 品种高度集中，铅市遭遇资金抽血，再叠加国内春节前流动性季节性收紧，宏观政策利好向铅产业链传 导滞后，贸易商与产业资本普遍持观望态度，市场交投意愿跌至冰点，多重因素进一步放大了铅价的下 跌幅度。 当前铅市场供应端整体平稳，未形成推动价格上涨的动力。原生铅冶炼厂在伴生贵金属收益的支撑下维 持高开工率，市场货源充足；再生铅 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article is the significant surge in Chinese liquor stocks, particularly on January 29, where 17 liquor stocks, including Kweichow Moutai, saw a collective limit-up, driven by a combination of market sentiment and capital seeking safe investments [2][3] - Kweichow Moutai (600519.SH) rose by 8.61%, while other major liquor stocks such as Wuliangye (000858.SZ) and Luzhou Laojiao (000568.SZ) also hit the limit-up [2] - The rise in liquor stocks also positively impacted yellow wine stocks, with Gu Yue Long Shan (600059.SH) and Kuaijishan (601579.SH) reaching their limit-up, and Jin Feng Jiu Ye (600616.SH) increasing by 6.8% [2] Group 2 - Since the third quarter of 2025, liquor stocks have faced challenges, with many companies reporting significant declines in performance growth, and several have issued profit warnings for the year [2] - Jinzhongzi Liquor (600199.SH) is expected to report a net loss of 150 to 190 million yuan for 2025, yet it also experienced a limit-up on the same day [2] - The collective rise in liquor stocks is seen as somewhat disconnected from individual company fundamentals, with a notable shift of funds from high-risk sectors like technology and small-cap stocks to safer investments [3]

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in Chinese liquor stocks, particularly after a period of poor performance, is attributed to a combination of market sentiment changes and capital seeking safer investments [3][5]. Group 1: Market Performance - On January 29, 2026, 17 liquor stocks, including Kweichow Moutai, experienced a collective surge, with Kweichow Moutai rising by 8.61% [3]. - The afternoon trading session saw a significant shift, with liquor stocks rapidly hitting their daily price limits [3]. - Alongside liquor stocks, yellow wine and beer stocks also saw notable increases, indicating a broader positive trend in the alcoholic beverage sector [3]. Group 2: Recent Trends and Challenges - Since the third quarter of 2025, liquor stocks have faced challenges, with many companies reporting significant declines in earnings growth [4]. - Several liquor companies have issued profit warnings, indicating a substantial impact on their annual performance [4]. - For instance, Jinzhongzi Liquor is expected to report a net loss of between 150 million to 190 million yuan for 2025, yet it also saw a price surge on the same day [5]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The collective rise in liquor stocks is seen as less related to individual company fundamentals and more influenced by broader market dynamics, including a strong performance in defensive sectors like liquor, resources, and banking [5]. - The current bullish sentiment in the stock market, coupled with the upcoming Spring Festival, is expected to boost liquor consumption, contributing to a more optimistic investor outlook [5]. - Additionally, there is a noted correlation between liquor stocks and the real estate sector, which also experienced a collective rise due to recent news [5].