在衡量一个城市或地区的实力时，经济实力是一个硬性标准，但更重要的是综合实力。2024年，上海的GDP约为5.39万亿元人民币，位居中国大陆城市之 首。而台湾地区的GDP大约为5.72万亿元人民币。也就是说，上海这座一线城市的GDP几乎等同于台湾21个县市的GDP总和。张维为的意思，实际上是在强 调要提升台湾的经济总量，特别是台北市的综合实力，力求使其具备省级政治文化中心的地位。随着台湾经济的提升，人均GDP也会随之提高，这本是件好 事。梁文杰拿人均GDP做比较，虽然看似有理，但如果过于看重人均GDP，就会忽略综合国力的重要性。比如新加坡，尽管人均GDP位居全球第三，但其综 合国力与一些经济总量较大的国家相比，依然无法抗衡。再看世界人均GDP排名第一的卢森堡，尽管人均收入极高，但在国际上几乎没有什么影响力。 一个国家或地区的综合国力强大，才能确保人民的福祉持续增长。而中国大陆人口基数庞大，国家的发展目标是实现共同富裕。因此，要让所有人快速富裕 起来，需要一个过程。中国这些年取得的巨大成就证明了脱贫攻坚取得了决定性胜利，并成功实现了小康社会的目标，部分一线城市已经达到发达国家的水 平。如果拿大陆与台湾地区对比，改 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the unexpected global impact of U.S. tariffs, which were initially aimed at China but ended up affecting many countries, leading to a compromise with China while other nations faced higher tariffs [2][3]. Economic Impact - China's economic dependence on the U.S. has significantly decreased since 2016, with a shift towards the Belt and Road Initiative, making U.S. tariffs less impactful [6]. - The domestic consumption market in China, with a population of 1.4 billion, has become a major economic driver, posing a risk to the U.S. if it continues its hardline stance [6]. Industrial Development - China has upgraded its industrial capabilities, exporting high-tech products that the U.S. cannot easily replace, which has led to self-inflicted damage from U.S. tariffs [8]. - China holds a dominant position in critical sectors like rare earths and renewable energy, increasing U.S. reliance on Chinese exports [8]. Military Strength - China's military capabilities are reportedly on par with or surpassing those of the U.S., particularly in advanced military technologies [11]. - The presence of U.S. military forces in allied countries deters those nations from taking a strong stance against the U.S., while China’s military strength allows it to confront the U.S. more confidently [9][10].

Core Viewpoint - The current dollar system is facing a historic turning point as its three pillars—comprehensive national strength, crisis response capability, and institutional advantages—are simultaneously weakening, providing a strategic window for the development of the renminbi [1][9]. Group 1: Evolution of Global Safe Assets - Safe assets are defined as those that maintain stable nominal returns, high liquidity, and low credit risk during market turmoil [2]. - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) outlines five conditions for safe assets: low credit and market risk, high market liquidity, limited inflation risk, low exchange rate risk, and minimal idiosyncratic risk [2]. - U.S. Treasury bonds are currently viewed as the safest store of value globally, holding a significant share in the safe asset portfolio [2]. Group 2: Historical Support Conditions for Safe Assets - Comprehensive national strength is the fundamental support for a currency to become a global safe asset, as seen in historical examples like Spain, the Netherlands, and the UK [5]. - Crisis response capability is crucial for market trust, demonstrated by historical mechanisms like the Dutch East India Company bond trading and the establishment of the Federal Reserve's global dollar swap network [6]. - Institutional advantages manifest in three areas: rule-making power, control over clearing networks, and liquidity supply dominance, which are essential for maintaining currency hegemony [7]. Group 3: Current Challenges to the Dollar System - The U.S. is experiencing a relative weakening of national strength, with GDP shrinking by 0.3% in Q1 2025 and a manufacturing sector share in GDP dropping to just over 10% [10]. - The frequent use of economic sanctions by the U.S. has damaged institutional credibility, leading to a decline in the dollar's share of global foreign exchange reserves from 72% in 2000 to below 60% currently [11]. - Technological advancements are disrupting traditional institutional advantages, with over 20% of oil trade now conducted in non-dollar settlements and significant progress in digital currency development [12]. Group 4: Strategic Recommendations for the Renminbi - Strengthening comprehensive national strength through high-quality economic development and enhancing competitiveness in high-end manufacturing and digital technology [14]. - Improving crisis response capabilities and market trust by enhancing the liquidity of renminbi assets and reforming the national bond market [15]. - Building a new institutional advantage by coordinating rule-making, clearing, and liquidity supply systems to support the cross-border use of the renminbi [16].

Group 1 - The core issue of the article revolves around the escalating trade tensions between the US and China, marked by the US imposing tariffs on all Chinese imports and further increasing tariffs on high-tech products [2][3][4] - The US government's justification for these tariffs is framed as a means to protect American manufacturing and jobs, but it is widely viewed as a continuation of trade protectionism [4][11] - China's response to the tariffs has been swift and targeted, implementing retaliatory tariffs on US agricultural products, which significantly impacts US farmers reliant on the Chinese market [4][5] Group 2 - The article highlights a notable shift in China's diplomatic stance, moving from restraint to a more assertive position, indicating readiness to confront unilateral provocations from the US [5][7] - China's military advancements, particularly in hypersonic weapons and naval capabilities, are underscored as factors that have compelled the US to reassess its strategic posture [8][11] - The internal pressures within the US, including the economic impact of tariffs on consumer prices and manufacturing profits, are contributing to a more cautious approach from the US government despite its rhetoric [11][13] Group 3 - The ongoing trade conflict is characterized as a broader struggle over comprehensive national power and strategic resolve, with China effectively countering US pressure through economic and military means [13] - The potential for future cooperation between the US and China hinges on the US's willingness to engage in rational dialogue rather than escalating tensions through tariffs and geopolitical provocations [13]

Economic Development - The "14th Five-Year Plan" is nearing completion, with significant achievements in economic growth, labor productivity, and R&D investment, among others [2] - China's economy is projected to reach approximately 140 trillion yuan this year, with a contribution rate to global economic growth maintained at around 30% [2][6] - The average economic growth rate over the past four years has been 5.5%, showcasing resilience against various risks and challenges [2] Innovation and Technological Advancement - China has made significant strides in innovation, achieving several "firsts" in various sectors, including the launch of the first domestically produced aircraft carrier and the completion of the first Chinese space station [3][4] - The country has also seen advancements in nuclear power with the operation of the world's first fourth-generation nuclear power plant [4] Green Development - Achievements in green development include a forest coverage rate exceeding 25%, contributing to a quarter of the world's new greening area [4] - Air quality has improved, with 87% of days classified as good, and major rivers meeting Class II water quality standards [4] - Renewable energy generation capacity has surpassed coal power, with one-third of electricity now coming from green sources [4][10] Safety and Security - The "14th Five-Year Plan" has strengthened food, energy, and industrial security, with the largest power infrastructure system globally ensuring energy supply during peak demand [5][7] - The Northeast region is projected to contribute 25.3% of the national grain output and 21% of crude oil production by 2024, enhancing national security [5] Infrastructure and Connectivity - China has built the world's largest networks for highways, high-speed rail, and urban transit, significantly improving logistics and connectivity [6][7] - The renewable energy generation is expected to reach 3.46 trillion kilowatt-hours by 2024, marking a 1.6-fold increase from the end of the previous five-year plan [7][8] Environmental Quality and Resource Efficiency - Resource utilization efficiency has improved, with a projected 11.6% reduction in energy consumption per unit of GDP by 2024 [8][9] - The quality of the ecological environment has seen continuous improvement, with major rivers achieving Class II water quality standards [9][10] - The renewable energy system has become the largest and fastest-growing globally, with installed capacity reaching 2.09 billion kilowatts, more than doubling since the end of the previous five-year plan [10]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes China's significant economic growth and development during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, highlighting the country's resilience and progress in various sectors, including innovation, infrastructure, and domestic demand [1][4][5]. Economic Growth and Contributions - China's GDP is projected to reach approximately 140 trillion yuan by 2025, contributing around 30% to global economic growth [1]. - The average economic growth rate during the first four years of the "14th Five-Year Plan" is 5.5%, with domestic demand contributing an average of 86.4% to this growth [1][4]. - The total economic increment during the "14th Five-Year Plan" is expected to exceed 35 trillion yuan, equivalent to recreating the economic output of the Yangtze River Delta region [4]. Comprehensive National Strength - China's comprehensive national strength is described as "rapidly advancing," reflected in its economic power, innovation capability, soft power, and resilience against shocks [5]. - The manufacturing sector has consistently added over 30 trillion yuan annually, maintaining China's position as the world's leading manufacturing nation for 15 consecutive years [5]. - China boasts the largest modern infrastructure network globally, including highways, high-speed rail, and renewable energy installations, which support rapid economic and social development [5]. Domestic Demand and Investment - Domestic consumption has become the main driver of economic growth, with final consumption contributing an average of 56.2% to economic growth, an increase of 8.6 percentage points from the previous five-year period [8]. - Investment has played a crucial role in optimizing supply structure, with an average contribution of 30.2% to economic growth [8]. - The government plans to accelerate the construction of a new development pattern, emphasizing the strengthening of domestic circulation and expanding domestic demand [10]. Improvement in People's Livelihood - The "14th Five-Year Plan" prioritizes improving people's livelihoods, with over one-third of the 20 major indicators focused on social welfare, the highest proportion in any five-year plan [12]. - Urban employment has stabilized at over 12 million new jobs annually, with significant growth in the service sector's employment share [13]. - The government has established a comprehensive education, healthcare, and social security system, with participation rates in basic insurance programs exceeding 95% [13].

Economic Strength - China is the world's largest manufacturing power, goods trading nation, foreign exchange reserve holder, energy producer, and has the largest human resource base [1] - The manufacturing value added has exceeded 30 trillion yuan annually since the start of the 14th Five-Year Plan, maintaining its position as the global manufacturing leader for 15 consecutive years [1] - Over 200 major industrial products have the highest production volume globally, indicating a strengthening of the real economy [1] Innovation Capability - China has the largest research and development workforce globally, with 26 of the world's top 100 technology innovation clusters [1] - There are over 460,000 high-tech enterprises in China, showcasing a growing technological prowess [1] - The new economy's added value is expected to exceed 24 trillion yuan in 2024, equivalent to the combined GDP of Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangdong [1] Soft Power - China's international influence and appeal have significantly increased, with more countries engaging in governance exchanges with China [2] - The Belt and Road Initiative is recognized as a path to global prosperity, enhancing China's global standing [2] - The number of countries in China's visa-free "friend circle" has expanded to 47, with a notable increase in foreign tourists expected in 2024 [2] Resilience - China has achieved 21 consecutive years of grain production growth, reaching a new level of 1.4 trillion jin [2] - The energy self-sufficiency rate remains above 80%, with total oil and gas production expected to exceed 400 million tons of oil equivalent in 2024 [2] - A multi-faceted energy supply system supports the energy needs of over 1.4 billion people, bolstering China's capacity to withstand external shocks [2]